DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates

[tag]

DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates

FRANKFURT (AFP) - DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years at the latest, Microsoft boss and founder Bill Gates predicted.

Asked what home entertainment would like in the future, Gates said that DVD technology would be "obsolete in 10 years at the latest. If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous," Gates said in comments reproduced in German in the mass-circulation daily Bild.

"These things can scratch or simply get lost."

Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it. When we get home, the home computer will know who we are from our voice or our face. It will know what we want to watch, our favourite programmes, or what the kids shouldn't be allowed to see."


Link: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040713/tc_afp/afplifestyle_germany_us_040713172320

[tag]

Yeah, sure! Last time I looked, they were still selling blank VHS tapes at Circuit City, Best Buy, Walgreens, and damned near every other joint in the world that sells any kind of blank media.

What year did VHS come out again?

[Capmaster]

Isn't it funny that whenever Bill Gates is asked to predict the future, the scenario always is centered around the Windows PC or the embedded-Windows smart appliance. He's trying to make a self-fulfilling prophecy :P



Billy-boy envisions a world where every mundane daily task is done with the aid of Windows somewhere, somehow. Dishwashers, refrigerators, toenail clippers - all running embedded NT or CE. We will be so dependent upon Microsoft, Billy-boy (or one of Bill's heirs) can proclaim themselves king of the world because they will be so filthy rich. But, just in case you get too cocky Billy-boy, you too have skeletons .........

[Bodyslide]

Wish I knew what Traffic offense he was busted for? I wonder if that is a hidden wallpaper in the next Windows OS.....

[Capmaster]

Wish I knew what Traffic offense he was busted for? I wonder if that is a hidden wallpaper in the next Windows OS.....

Maybe an easter egg in the next Windows major release. Hold CTRL-ALT-SHIFT while typing in Billy-boy's APD booking number, and you'll get the whole story - in Windows Media format, of course

Edit: Here's an explanation of his arrests. I don't know how accurate these are:

http://www.rexrobards.com/riqueriquardo/billgates.html

[housepig]

"640K of memory should be enough for anyone".
- Bill Gates, 1981.

think his crystal ball is any less cloudy these days?

[lordsmurf]

I vote to keep DVDs and make Bill obsolete.

[Timmychuck]

It sounds like Bill Gates wants to control the world.

I thank Windows is spyware .

[BobK]

I remember when quadraphonic sound was supposed to make stereo obsolete.

> Gates' vision of television of the future was: "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it.

And then make a report to the government of what we're watching and when we watch it. But then Bill doesn't worry about the government anymore- he learned that the government won't bother you if you just buy enough politicians.

[SLK001]

Well, the current format for DVD will probably be obsolete in two years, since a new HD format is about to be released. But I guess that he is lost in his own fantasy "Star Trek" world, where infinite bandwidth is available to everyone to say that "TV that will simply show what we want to see, when we want to see it" (not to mention some infinite storage facility to hold "anything that you wanted to see"). Regular TV makes this virtually impossible, not to even mention the requirements for HDTV.

I quit listening to that idiot years ago.

[lordsmurf]

I really hate scifi shows with "viewscreens" that show stuff ... but no cameras to take the images. Like magic or something.

[mh2360]

High capacity flash cards are the future, in Ten years time 10GB cards will probably be available...

[oldfart13]

Well, this isn't all that visionary at all. I remember reading in some of my old 1970s electronics mags about on demand PPV showing what was on at the cinema, however pirates, the mpaa and riaa came into being and put the kibosh on all that. What is Gates thinking? Some fantasy where everything will be like Pleasantville? Yeah, right...

[Nilfennasion]

Of course, never mind the fact that Windows itself has been using obsolete code since 1981, or that if you look at some of the executables in Windows XP, you can still find code that has a copyright date of 1986. Who the hell is Bill Gates to talk?

VHS has been conceptually obsolete since 1984, but the consumer still used it exclusively up until about 1999. The reason being that the formats that tried to replace it just weren't good enough to capture the public's eye. VideoCD was typically sub-VHS quality, a strike you definitely don't want to have against you with early adopters, and LaserDisc was just plain badly marketed, not to mention cumbersome. DVD-Video took off because the companies behind it took the time to create a buzz about it, and that buzz turned out to be justified. Like my pa says about the comparison between vinyl and CD, now that I've made the switch, I am never going back.

If Bill thinks he can predict the future solely based on what is technologically superior, he ought to examine the present state of DVD-Audio. So far, the launch of DVD-A in Australia has turned out to be an unmitigated screw-up. Given that Australians are rightfully concerned with value for money, given the price they are asked to pay, you'd think a format that can deliver 5.1 channels of 96 Khz, 24-bit audio would at least interest them. I have met maybe three people in the three years since DVD-A was launched who own a DVD-A capable player. Most of these people are technophiles with money to burn. Given that every Joe Schmoe in the neighbourhood I lived in had a CD player within a year of my family back in 1984/85, poor marketing doesn't even begin to cover it.

The only reason Bill hopes this Video-On-Demand system does take off is because it will give him greater control of how people entertain themselves. He's seen the writing on the wall for the X-Box, and his other television services are failing, so why not try to make the jump to another service that will extend his monopoly? I actually predict that in ten years time, people will grow so discontented with the fact that they can do less on an AMD Athlon 2800XP than they could do on a 66Mhz 486 DX2 in the same amount of time that Microsoft will either have to rewrite their entire product line from the ground up, or die. Which scenario do you think is more likely, asks he who has been fiddling with several Linux flavours in the past four weeks?

[housepig]

I really hate scifi shows with "viewscreens" that show stuff ... but no cameras to take the images. Like magic or something.

it's a combo flatscreen camera / viewscreen - bi-directional LCD. c'mon, man - it's the future.

[Rookie64]

I doubt DVDs will be obsolete in ten years...but they'll be improved from the way they are now. Like being able to store much more data and being able to write several layers onto one disc.

HD Discs will be more popular as well.


I can also see people owning their own pocket PCs that can store hundreds of full length movies, that you'll be able to output to any TV set.


I do think we'll be looking back on the current crop of DVDs and laughing about the old days of DVD-R/DVD+R and the 4.7 GB capacity discs (which don't even hold that much) and comparing 'em to floppy disks and 8-tracks.

BTW, VHS is not obsolete and probably won't be for another ten years - DVD is still over the heads of the average person and it'll take some time for everyone to make the switch.
I still use VHS - I have to in order to convert all my tapes to DVD-R and it'll take me several years to do them all

[illgamma]

i think what he means is that dvd will be obsolete because these new "on demand" technologies will be more widespread and cheaper. i dont think he means that nobody is going to use dvd in 10 years. i know in 10 years ill have most of my video on hard drives and my entire house networked with computers on most tv's. i dont think ill use dvd's because they can be damaged or lost, but most of all because video compression will be better and hard drives will be huge. the same will prolly happen to most of you who are reading this as well. if i had enough cash to spend on hdd's i doubt id use dvd even now.

[GabeB]

He was arrested for speeding possibly a reckless driving down in the south- Arizona or so. Nothing we haven't done before, just didn't get caught.

[gitreel]

In ten years, we will probably be looking forward to blu-ray and hddvd's replacement. I wouldn't put any stock in what BG thinks. He just wants us to follw his vision. Wmp 15 anyone?

[Nilfennasion]

VHS is a format based around storing video images on a strip of tape that oxidises (ie degrades simply as a side effect of existing). Since Laserdisc, which doesn't suffer damage from mere exposure to air, was around before VHS, it's safe to say that VHS was obsolete from the get-go. People only fear technology because they are too lazy to educate themselves about it, and people like Harlan Ellison fill their heads with fear about it.

When Bill Gates says something will be obsolete, what he generally means is that it is a technology that gives its users a choice, and therefore will be eliminated by Microsoft, if they have their way. They are already experimenting with their own DVD format that can only be played on stripped-down PCs that are pre-loaded with a new version of Windows Media Player. I'm sure the fact that the DVD-Video format is standards-based rather than propietary also puts a big bug up Gates' butt.

The big techno-joke about the history of DOS is that it is based on code that was pirated. QDOS, which Microsoft bought in the early days, has been said by some to be pirated from CP/M. So if you follow that to its logical conclusion, Gates' empire is built upon a criminal act.

[tag]

I'm sure the fact that the DVD-Video format is standards-based rather than propietary also puts a big bug up Gates' butt.

[rmtaibo]

If any new technology can't be copied or backed up, people will no buy it.

Vinyl is a exception, because there was no sustitute.

But:
Compact Cassettes content could be copied, so it was popular
VHS content could be copied, so it was popular.
CD content could be copied, so it was popular.
DVD content could be copied, so it was popular.

LaserDisc content couldn't be copied, so it was no popular.

At first, CD content couldn't be copied, so it was no popular. With the particular exception that CDs offered better quality than vinyl and compactcassettes...

At first DVD content couldn't be copied, so it was no popular.

At this days, my opinion is, that any new technology that its content couldn't be copied, it can't be popular, unless its cost would be very attractive for consumers.

I think this idea is in hands of major manufacturers brands. They know that if they create new technology, this must offer the copy/backup solution.

So They can sell the media and the recorder too... For big and small consumers... Two bussiness at the same time

THIS IS THE COPY ERA, AND XEROX DID BEGIN IT....
ALL PEOPLE LOOK FOR BACKUP OR COPY ANYTHING THEY WANT.
AND WILL CHOOSE THE BETTER QUALITY AT LOWEST COST AND NOW AT BETTER CUSTOMER SUPPORT...

Sorry, my English is not my best...

[MOVIEGEEK]

High capacity flash cards are the future, in Ten years time 10GB cards will probably be available...

I hope so too.
No scratches,no motors,no lasers,no burn software(just right-click)=no more coasters.

[Nilfennasion]

Not to nitpick, but vinyls certainly could be copied.

Almost anything could be copied to a cassette, including compact discs and reel-to-reel. All it took was a little investment of time.

DVD won the war in terms of simple copying. Even if you could copy it to VHS in spite of the macrovision and CSS, the results were such that you really wouldn't want to. With DVD burner drives flooding into the market, however, it is a whole new ball game.

[freestyler]

I think CD won the war in simple copying, even a monkey can copy a cd.

If you recall, copy protection mechanisms for cds were introduced just in the past 6 years or so I'd say, correct me if I'm wrong. I was able to make a copy of Quake years ago with no problems.

The DVD war required soldiers to crack the encryption.

[anaboland]

If you think about things, the technology used by the dvd format
is already obsolete, as we can already produce devices that can play and record video using smart cards, ie Pocket Pc's
The only real limiting factor to the quality of the video is the storage capacity of the smart cards. Currently the price of a 5gig storage card would be out of this world.

But who knows what the next few years will bring smart cards are getting cheaper by the day and just look at the way the capacity keeps increasing.

When you say obsolete it can be looked at in several ways, as most electronic equipment is obsolete the day it's released on sale to the public
because after several years testing and development they are already developing a replacement.

Just because the technology behind a piece of equipment is obsolete it does'nt mean the equipment itself is, millions of people still use Vcr recorders, compact cassettes, etc

[vitualis]

Bill Gates didn't say that DVDs will be gone.

He said that they will be "obsolete" and in 10 years, it is not impossible for them not to be (though I doubt it).

In essence, a few key things will have to change:
(i) "pre-recorded" content distribution must be both accessible and convenient enough that the vast majority of people would use it rather than buying a physical disc (remember: popping a disc into a player is pretty easy and convenient)

(ii) wireless networking must be close to universal and usable as an "appliance" with minimal setup requirements

(iii) on-line data storage must be reliable enough for people to be agreeable to use it rather than local storage.

I think point (i) is an obvious point and the hardest to achieve. A universally acceptable and compatible distribution system is almost impossible to achieve. With a physical disc, I can go almost anywhere to buy content. There will not be the same flexibility with a distributed model.

Point (iii) is a stickler but not impossible. Even if on-line storage is MORE reliable, it doesn't fulfill the irrational human belief that something is safest when I physically have it (whether it be in forms of a disk or on MY hard disc). However, as can be seen with the popularity of what is in essence web only e-mail services which many people use as their PRIMARY e-mail, this can be overcome.

Regards.

[BobV]

I think what Billy and some others want is complete control over what we watch and do. No longer will anyone "own" copies of music or movies. the will be charged for every access. I think this idea extends to software also. He will have is had in your pocket every time you log on.

[dphirschler]

I don't think HD DVDs will be that popular. I think they will fill a niche for the high end movie enthusiasts... similar to what LD did when VHS was the rage. But I think the current DVD standard will be around for longer than ten years, and I think the majority of movie releases will be in the current format.

As for watching what I want when I want it. That is bullshit. I want to watch Star Wars the original trilogy. You think Lucas is gonna serve that up to me? He's gonna give me his most recent hack job.


Darryl

[cor1]

In a way, my (and your) TV already shows what I want to see, when I want to see it.
I either stick a disc in my DVD player or I select from the pretty big choice on Sky.
And before someone points out to me that Bill did not refer to my TV set but rather TV as broadcast then by definition broadcast TV cannot offer what everyone wants at any time as the broadcast slots are not infinite in number.