This is exactly what i have been seeing!, sometimes its really good saving, sometimes its awful, and when i modify smal changes with the bitrate it seems to dramatically change whether its good or awful with no predictable results.
Small changes to 5-6 may be ok, as long as they are small! the bit for bit differencing will cope with that at a cost of describing those frames which have changed is small (if its large, then its competing with jpg compression again).
It sounds like whatever i do with this, it wont be scientific. There is an added disaster that the sequence of images at the start could be just 1 image or many hundreds of images long over time, which would make the bitrate calculation difficult (maybe impossible - ive not solved it yet), as a default bitrate would need to be defined and not changed from patch to patch.
Thanks, i appreciate your help, and your clarifications, alot of what you have described, im seeing and now i understand a bit better why.
I'll try the intra suggestion and post my findings.
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