I'm starting to wonder what the point of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD is.

[Skoorb]

Duh! Because it can store a lot, but really I'm wondering, so what? It kind of seems to me that these formats may be getting ahead of themselves. It took at least 5 years or so for burnable DVDs to come out in any sort of inexpensive fashion, because the market didn't really care about them. CDs were fine. Now, I think DVDs are fine.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/11/24/hp_blu-ray_pc_media_centre/

Blu-ray disks will arrive with three different media types at launch, BD-ROM a read only version, for software, games and movie distribution; BD-RE, a rewritable format for HDTV recording and data storage; and BD-R, a write-once format for HDTV recording and data storage.

Software/games are not even worth mentioning. Even now it's hard to find much in the way of software or games on DVD. It will be a damn long time before much in the way of games/software is on anything beyond DVD, especially since DVDs can already pack 8.5 gigs. Even a big game like HL2 takes up half of that, and most software takes up far less space.

Movies? Who cares. Most people - and I'm even including those with some of the low-level big screens (like a $1500 50" or something they buy from circuit city) are not going to realize much in the way of benefits going up from a DVD to something with a higher bitrate. The quality will be mostly lost. And if they're using that storage for extra features, we all know how little that matters (I've never freaking seen a DVD with more than one angle, for instance).

To me Blu-ray/HD DVD seems to have only two real uses: 1) Archiving tons of data; an MP3 collection on one disk, backing up multiple movies to one disk, etc. At least in the near term I'd consider this a fairly small niche of people who'd need that. Once DL DVDs become less than a buck, they'll offer ample room for a good while. 2) Recording HDTV. DVDs are inadequate for this, true. As more people get HDTV (although even extra compressed HDTV would be fine on something smaller, like a DVD, for most people with their low-end cinema set ups), the extra storage could be of use, but you won't sell a system simply because of recording (even the famed VCR relied heavily upon movie rentals).

I think in the end that blu-ray or hd dvd will be very slow to be picked up. Most people have DVDs now and know that anything more is basically a waste of time for them. CDs picked up, as a format, because of the availabilty of music. DVDs, because movies look a lot better on them than on VHS, and you have skipping/chapters, etc. It will be a long time before a blu-ray disk offers, to most people, a true enhanced quality for them.

Oh, plus, if encryption of blu-ray content does prove to be difficult to by pass, that's going to do anything but help its proliferation along.

I wonder if, by the time all this size is needed, there is a superior technology to take care of it? Is it possible that this next generation will go the way of laser disc? I'm keeping my eye out for green-ray, 2009! I made the mistake, in 1998, of buying a DVD drive, and it's hardly seen any use, since it now won't run anything but pressed disks or CD-R. Movies were hard to find then, and the promised software on-disk has only materialized recently. I think anybody expecting to see blu-ray movies in blockbuster come early 2006 is going to be disapointed, and if you can't really do anything with the disks, except archive large amounts of data, there isn't much point in getting them.

[yoda313]

Hello,

No... I think one will win outright because of the infusion of HDTV. Once the US goes ALL digital people will start to notice the difference and demand higher sampling rates for professional and home use.

Kevin

[stryker]

Software/games are not even worth mentioning. Even now it's hard to find much in the way of software or games on DVD.

It's true that there aren't many DVD PC games, but all of PS2/Xbox games are on DVD and PlayStation 3 will support blu-ray.

[Skoorb]

Software/games are not even worth mentioning. Even now it's hard to find much in the way of software or games on DVD.

It's true that there aren't many DVD PC games, but all of PS2/Xbox games are on DVD and PlayStation 3 will support blue ray.

That's true, but are any of these games currently stressing DVDs at all (I know a guy who has 2-3 Xbox games on a single DVD, although I think he mentioned one game that only barely fit on one)? I know games get bigger, and I think that the PS3//Xbox2 may help move some product. I'd forgotten about them.

[yoda313]

Software/games are not even worth mentioning. Even now it's hard to find much in the way of software or games on DVD.

It's true that there aren't many DVD PC games, but all of PS2/Xbox games are on DVD and PlayStation 3 will support blue ray.

That's true, but are any of these games currently stressing DVDs at all (I know a guy who has 2-3 Xbox games on a single DVD, although I think he mentioned one game that only barely fit on one)? I know games get bigger, and I think that the PS3//Xbox2 may help move some product. I'd forgotten about them.

Hello,

Yeah a lot of xbox games are on dvd. Though not many of them are using mpeg2 that I know of.

If you check out Lord Of the Rings Return of the King it uses DIVX even on the Xbox Dvdrom version! DIVX! This is a dvd people!

Kevin

[Skoorb]

Software/games are not even worth mentioning. Even now it's hard to find much in the way of software or games on DVD.

It's true that there aren't many DVD PC games, but all of PS2/Xbox games are on DVD and PlayStation 3 will support blue ray.

That's true, but are any of these games currently stressing DVDs at all (I know a guy who has 2-3 Xbox games on a single DVD, although I think he mentioned one game that only barely fit on one)? I know games get bigger, and I think that the PS3//Xbox2 may help move some product. I'd forgotten about them.

Hello,

Yeah a lot of xbox games are on dvd. Though not many of them are using mpeg2 that I know of.

If you check out Lord Of the Rings Return of the King it uses DIVX even on the Xbox Dvdrom version! DIVX! This is a dvd people!

Kevin

Are you sure it's not DivX format...? I've been toying with that lately and I am quite enamoured with it

[yoda313]

Hello,

Are you sure it's not DivX format...? I've been toying with that lately and I am quite enamoured with it

I said it IS divx for that game. What I mean is why couldn't they encode it to better video on mpeg2????

Kevin

[stryker]

That's true, but are any of these games currently stressing DVDs at all (I know a guy who has 2-3 Xbox games on a single DVD, although I think he mentioned one game that only barely fit on one)? I know games get bigger, and I think that the PS3//Xbox2 may help move some product. I'd forgotten about them.

I don't know how much data the games are taken up on the DVDs, so I can't really comment on that. I'm sure there are games that require the storage capacity of DVDs, so I'm glad it's available to the programmers. I would hate for a programmer to have to spend time worrying about if his game will fit on a disc.

I think the reason the games don't take up more space on the DVD is more of the system itself than the games. Xbox/PS2 for the most part output at 480p. With higher quality graphics and higher resolutions, the games would benefit from blu-ray technoloogy in the future.

[tekkieman]

While I'll admit to not having a great amount of knowledge on this topic from the technical standpoint, in the end, it's all about market. Come up with something new, then force it onto the consumer. Obviously, there's no debate about VHS vs. DVD, but really, is there anything really wrong with VHS? No, but go into BB and see how many copies of new movies are on VHS. Not many! So, whether you want to or not, you will eventually be force into buying DVD. While it will have immediate applications in small niche fields, rest assured, it will be forced onto everyone.

[mpack]

Obviously, there's no debate about VHS vs. DVD, but really, is there anything really wrong with VHS?

Absolutely there's something wrong with VHS! That's why the takeup of DVD has been so phenomenal. Among the problems with VHS that I can think of off the top of my head are: (1)picture quality is actually worse than standard TV broadcast quality, (2) you have to rewind the tapes, (3) the tapes wear out, in fact they degrade over time even if you don't play them, (4) a VHS tape collection takes up a LOT of space, (5) the tape itself is fragile: a minor tape transport error leads to a tangled mess.

ISTM that for Blu-ray to unseat DVD then Blu-ray has to have similar obvious, practical benefits. Unfortunately I can't see any.

[tekkieman]

Again, as I stated, there's no debate about the benefits of DVD over VHS. But, when DVD was first released, the majority of consumers had no problem with VHS. VHS was obsoleted for the sole purpose of pushing DVD. This is what the market does. Look at processors. The 64's are getting very popular. Show me an app that can utilize it to it's full effect. Now, as the apps start to trickle out, they will obsolete your old apps to force you into the new ones. There's still nothing wrong with your old ones, but you will eventually be left with no choice.

This is nothing new, and we cannot change it. It's innovation, and that's a great thing. But just as you and I and the innovators have their jobs to do, the market has it's job to do, and that's to make you buy it!

[mpack]

VHS was obsoleted for the sole purpose of pushing DVD. This is what the market does.

That simply isn't true - in fact it makes no sense at all. DVD didn't need to be "pushed" - people only had to take one look at a DVD playing on a 100Hz true flat widescreen TV to realise that VHS was pathetic by comparison. DVD took off like a rocket because people wanted it.

You don't seem to understand anything about "the market". Sure, you can make a few fools buy things they don't want, or that doesn't benefit them: but you don't really succeed that way. If you don't believe me, just talk to the 3G phone people, ask them how their sales are coming along.

[tekkieman]

people only had to take one look at a DVD playing on a 100Hz true flat widescreen

...and just how many of those did you look at 5-6 years ago????

You don't seem to understand anything about "the market".

You'd be surprised what I understand. You'd do well in life not to criticize people without knowing them!

[yoda313]

Hello,

There were 3 main reasons dvds took over the market so quickly and none of them needed to be pushed on us:

SOUND - Digital sound is like nothing else and rocks when reproduced properly.

VIDEO - Even on a standard tv DVD's offer better picture quality than vhs and it never deteriorates if handled properly.

BONUSES - Director commentary, documentaries, trailers, web links, etc. etc. etc...... These were boons for movie buffs who can't get enough of their favorite movie/shows.

These were what brought the DVD's into the forefront.

What Bluray or HDDVD needs to do is provide enough features to warrant the replacement of DVDs.

Once HDTV becomes the only option then people will see the need for extra capacity to gain the higher bitrates needed for hd.

And the recordable market has a ready demand for more capacity. EVERYBODY wants to record more and at higher bitrates to get a picture.

It will just be a matter of which has the better features that people will want. It's not a PUSHING IT ON US tactic. The CONSUMER decides what they want.

Kevin

[mpack]

people only had to take one look at a DVD playing on a 100Hz true flat widescreen

...and just how many of those did you look at 5-6 years ago????

I'm not sure I understand the question. I've had a 100Hz widescreen TV for much longer than that - c1990 I think is when I bought my first Philips Matchline 28" WS TV (in its day the tube was considered flat). Slim pickings for widescreen video in those days of course - though I do have the original Star Wars in WS VHS. As to when I saw my first DVD - that would have been when they first appeared in the shops. Of course I had been waiting for them to appear (having already experimented with VCD), and for the price of players to become reasonable. And when that happened I went along to the shop for a demo: and bought a player on the spot. Like I said in the quote - I, like many others, only needed one look to see the benefits.

You don't seem to understand anything about "the market".

You'd be surprised what I understand. You'd do well in life not to criticize people without knowing them!

I'm not commenting on your personality, I'm commenting on what you write, and I don't need to know you to decide if what you write makes sense. IMHO you seem to think it is easy for vendors to "push" stuff on the market, indeed you seem to imply that there is some sort of conspiracy to do exactly that. I'm saying that that kind of strategy rarely succeeds. If you have a monopoly position then the market has little choice but to go along (Microsoft, Playstation), but nearly every other vendor bucks the market only at great risk to themselves. More than one mobile phone mfr is currently in dire straits because they spent a fortune buying licenses for and then pushing a new technology (3G phones) that few people actually wanted.

Regarding your earlier example of 64bit processors, I have to say that I've never had anyone ever boast to me that their PC is 64bit. They comment on the CPU speed, or the graphics or sound performance, or the hard disk space or the bundled DVD writer... the arcane details of the CPU inside is pretty secondary (which is why it is, I would bet, most often a Celeron).