Hard disk prices starting to fall.

[edDV]

Before the Thailand floods you could get 2TB drives for about $80 ($40/TB). I was able to buy two 2TB Seagate green drives for $79/ea at BestBuy the week the floods were announced. The same drive is currently $119.99 at Newegg and Frys.

Last week WD announced there is no longer a supply problem but street prices haven't budged off $60/TB.

This week Costco put on sale a 3TB (2.7TB formatted) external Seagate Free Agent GoFlex USB3/USB2 drive for $129.99 (after $10 instant rebate). Finally a $43/TB drive.

[cal_tony]

Good to know.

I keep getting ads from Tiger Direct and since the flood the ads are for 1tb drives at the same price they used to have for the 2 tb drives.

I do miss their 2tb Esata Fannon specials at $102.00 with free delivery.

Tony

[handyguy]

It's been proven that the shortage was fake. Probably created to bring prices up.

[edDV]

It's been proven that the shortage was fake. Probably created to bring prices up.

It allowed WD to buy Hitachi's disk drive division (formerly IBM).
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5635/western-digital-to-sell-hitachis-35-hard-drive-busi...hitachi-buyout

[ranchhand]

Good news this time, there ain't much of it anywhere lately.

[usually_quiet]

It allowed WD to buy Hitachi's disk drive division (formerly IBM).
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5635/western-digital-to-sell-hitachis-35-hard-drive-busi...hitachi-buyout

Not only that, but Seagate bought Samsung's hard drive division. Am I wrong or does that leave only two companies making hard drives?

Retailers probably have expensive old stock left to sell, and could still be paying a higher price for replacement stock than they did before the floods (especially since there is less competition now), which could account for the continuing higher retail prices.

[edDV]

It allowed WD to buy Hitachi's disk drive division (formerly IBM).
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5635/western-digital-to-sell-hitachis-35-hard-drive-busi...hitachi-buyout

Not only that, but Seagate bought Samsung's hard drive division. Am I wrong or does that leave only two companies making hard drives?

Retailers probably have expensive old stock left to sell, and could still be paying a higher price for replacement stock than they did before the floods (especially since there is less competition now), which could account for the continuing higher retail prices.

Three companies left

WD bought Hitachi drive div but was forced to sell 3.5" drive factories to Toshiba by Japan gov't.

Seagate got Maxtor in the past and Samsung disk drive div recently

Toshiba is third.

[dragonkeeper]

It's been proven that the shortage was fake. Probably created to bring prices up.

Pretty much what I've assumed. I don't see how any company would let that happen to themselves. Especially after what happen to memory sales after the earthquake in Japan in the late 90's.
In any event i have a few hundred dollars earmarked to buy 20 2TB drives when the price goes back to what it once was. I was about to pull the trigger on the purchase the week prior to the earthquake but by the time i realized my blunder the price of 2TB had more than tripled.

[edDV]

It's been proven that the shortage was fake. Probably created to bring prices up.

Pretty much what I've assumed. I don't see how any company would let that happen to themselves. Especially after what happen to memory sales after the earthquake in Japan in the late 90's.
In any event i have a few hundred dollars earmarked to buy 20 2TB drives when the price goes back to what it once was. I was about to pull the trigger on the purchase the week prior to the earthquake but by the time i realized my blunder the price of 2TB had more than tripled.

I mostly agree. Intel hasn't built a new fab in California since an earthquake nearly took them down. This decision was aided by CA gov't policy to make business here near impossible.

[bendixG15]

Got to watch the Western Digital warranty periods.
WD Caviar Blue and Green are down to 2 years.
The WD Caviar Black is still 5 years.

[MOVIEGEEK]

...This decision was aided by CA gov't policy to make business here near impossible.

I totally agree but I won't get into politics, I wouldn't be surprised if Intel shut down all it's operations in CA. Intel did open a chip factory in AZ last year so they proved the "we can't make electronics in the US" argument is false, I give Intel kudos for keeping jobs in the US.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2011-03-28-intel-manufacturing.htm

[edDV]

...This decision was aided by CA gov't policy to make business here near impossible.

I totally agree but I won't get into politics, I wouldn't be surprised if Intel shut down all it's operations in CA. Intel did open a chip factory in AZ last year so they proved the "we can't make electronics in the US" argument is false, I give Intel kudos for keeping jobs in the US.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2011-03-28-intel-manufacturing.htm

Intel has mostly expanded into Oregon but has chip plants around the globe. They remain a net exporter in US.

[Constant Gardener]

I bought a 500 GB 2.5" WD drive last week, $60 from a local distributor - the date code was July 2011. Sitting in a warehouse for ten months, perhaps?

[zoobie]

I just naturally assumed companies invent "shortages", enjoy the windfall, then keep prices as high for as long as possible...perhaps to even repeat the invented "catastrophe" several times.

Petrol companies especially come to mind. Now HDD's. What's next? Cell phones?

Am I too pessimistic?

We saw what happened to "Jerry McGuire" when he mentioned honesty and integrity within the sports business model.

[Cornucopia]

Yeah, it makes me sick. I saw gas prices were $3.45 for a few days in my area. Now you KNOW the oil companies aren't losing their investment EVEN when prices are that low. So all the rest is pure profit for them. Let's see, how much might that be?...

3.95-3.45= $0.50/gallon. Say fill up my 20 gal. tank once a week because I commute and have a larger car. = $10/week. Let's say this has been going on for just 20 weeks and being done by just 50mil. drivers. That = $1 billion! Extra profit. The unfairness of it all leaves me so jaded.

But, on an upbeat note, I expect HDD prices to actually normalize before the fall season.

Scott

[intracube]

3.95-3.45= $0.50/gallon. Say fill up my 20 gal. tank once a week because I commute and have a larger car. = $10/week. Let's say this has been going on for just 20 weeks and being done by just 50mil. drivers. That = $1 billion! Extra profit. The unfairness of it all leaves me so jaded.

$3.95/gallon? Motorists this side of the pond would be weeping for joy at that

Prices here have gone as high as... *gets out calculator* $8.58/US gallon the last few weeks

Most of that goes straight to the government tho'

[pandy]

In NL 1 gallon is approx 8.74$ - guys please, don't complain on US prices.

[intracube]

In NL 1 gallon is approx 8.74$ - guys please, don't complain on US prices.

To be fair, US folk have to pay their own health care, etc.

High tax n.european countries (Netherlands, Sweden, Norway) have decent public services - at least that's the perception. Your trains run on time and streets are clean... By contrast, have you ever visited London?

Anyway, back on topic; It wouldn't surprise me if the shortages were exaggerated, but I doubt the manufacturers could predict how the market would respond. Maybe there was more panic buying than anticipated. But that's hardly surprising considering there are few alternatives to HDD backup - DVD capacity is too low, reliable BD-R discs are still expensive as is professional tape backup.

[pandy]

In NL 1 gallon is approx 8.74$ - guys please, don't complain on US prices.

To be fair, US folk have to pay their own health care, etc.

We too - same insurance monthly payed, same crappy service... anyway public healthcare is not free - it is from taxes...

High tax n.european countries (Netherlands, Sweden, Norway) have decent public services - at least that's the perception. Your trains run on time and streets are clean...

Hahahahaha, its common misconception - personally i think that public transport in NL is not reliable, over 70% use cars daily due of this, going few km - one bus - 3 stops is approx 3.5E, trains not running very frequently on time...
If You want reliable transportation use or private car (but beware of traffic jams) or bike - bike seems to be BEST transportation in NL even on radius 20km.

By contrast, have you ever visited London?

sorry but never have opportunity

Anyway, back on topic; It wouldn't surprise me if the shortages were exaggerated, but I doubt the manufacturers could predict how the market would respond. Maybe there was more panic buying than anticipated. But that's hardly surprising considering there are few alternatives to HDD backup - DVD capacity is too low, reliable BD-R discs are still expensive as is professional tape backup.

First sign - manufacturers reduce warranty periods - now they are usually 12 sometimes 24 months - this reduce costs for them, second this is related with growing SSD popularity - from HDD manufacturers point of view HDD loosing market, they are ok when LARGE amount of data must be stored however most of customers are quite satisfied with overall 1TB capacity in home (all those mumbojambo clouds, online access etc reduce demand for local, physical storage) - equation must balanced - effect are higher prices - HDD will slowly move from mass market to large (multi TB and PB) storage's.

[edDV]

The one at a time consumer HDD market is a small percentage of sales and highest in support/warranty cost. The bulk of drives go to server farms, network administrators and computer manufacturers who buy in bulk and require low service. As a result, the retail channel gets the highest prices. Exceptions are the big box stores that commit to large inventories to stock their shelves worldwide. Lucky for us these stores (e.g. Costco, Best Buy) often add promotional discounts. Retailers like Newegg typically ship out of manufacturer inventory as orders come in.

[pandy]

For sure real mainstream are companies that buying HDD for embedded products (all PVR's, STB's but also PC manufacturers) - NewEgg is small fraction of market.