Will it be some years before this is possible or do we think that as the burners are some years off, it may not happen?
Have they finally won?
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PAL/NTSC problem solver.
USED TO BE A UK Equipment owner., NOW FINISHED WITH VHS CONVERSIONS-THANKS -
The burners will be out very soon, although at what price ?
The issue isn't the hardware, it will be the encryption. Unless someone is very sloppy, I believe it will be some time before it is broken. DVD encryption was broken as early as it was because of poor coding and clever reverse engineering. It was basically luck that a partial key was left exposed in some playback software, so the keys did not have to be broken from scratch. To expect Blu-Ray or HD-DVD to go as easily is simply naive.Read my blog here.
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Hopefully this time it will be hardware encryption instead of software. That will stem the flow of rampant copying by making it so that only modifications to the hardware would allow burned copies to play. Another option although I think this won't be made available due to current limits in households is to require networked communication. This will probably be more widely available and considered an option for the next generation devices after blu-laser.
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Certainly HDCP would suggest this. Without it you will downscaled output. While this might be open for exploitation, it will be on par with current DVD quality, rather than the HD your were paying for.
From a more practical perspective, I believe it will quite some time before enforced phone home tech enters the playback arena. That isn't to say they won't try, but the consumer won't buy it. I for one don't want to have to pay for a player, then pay to have extra cables installed so it can use my net connection or even worse, phone home constantly at my cost. At the price of a phone call every time my kids watched a movie, each disc would end up costing at least $100 more than the original purchase price, just in phone home charges.Read my blog here.
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VoIP is starting to gain ground in market share for phone service systems. Most cable systems now offer phone service. When cable offers phone service it's VoIP and there is no long distance charges or phone service tied up during networked communications. As we see more and more people leaving the ancient copper wire systems you will see more and more technology produced to take advantage of the systems in place.
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Expect Blu Ray/HD DVD burners to be around the same price when dvd burners appeared (IMO say around $500-$600).
Dont forget as with DVD, there will be dual layer discs as well as single layer. Copmmercial discs will be dual layer while recordable media at an early stage will be single layer. -
At those projected price I'd just buy a burner and forego the $1000 players to be made available soon.
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