Semi-OT more Microsoft vs. Blu-Ray - Good DRM read

[DanSlagle]

Inside Microsoft's decision to back HD DVD

By Ken "Caesar" Fisher

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Few were surprised when Microsoft (along with Intel) announced that they would back HD DVD over Blu-ray. While Microsoft's stance on the next-generation of optical storage media was officially neutral, their close working relationship with Toshiba led us to suspect that HD DVD would get the nod. The interesting question is, why?

It has been said that Microsoft simply wouldn't back something put out by Sony, but that argument doesn't have traction. First, Microsoft's VC-1 video codec is supported by both Blu-ray and HD DVD; there's no strategic edge there to speak of. Additionally, over-emphasizing the competition between the PlayStation and the Xbox ignores the fact that Sony and Microsoft have a substantial working relationship. Witness Sony's line of Vaio computers, as well as Sony's Microsoft-DRM-backed music store.

The decision to back HD DVD stems not from a dislike of Sony, but from the assessment of the maturity and consumer-friendliness of HD DVD. No, seriously.
Managed Copy: what is it, and what it isn't

First, a little Realpolitik. We all know about CSS, the encryption scheme used to "protect" DVDs from unauthorized copying. It was cracked (famously), and both Blu-ray and HD DVD are designed to be much, much harder to circumvent. While calling anything crack-proof is pretty foolish, phenomena such as the iTunes Music Store demonstrate quite clearly that many people are comfortable with DRM if it allows for some flexibility. That is, DRM isn't going anywhere, and even the most pointy-haired geek should see that.

Making copies of a DVD is technically illegal in the United States, because circumventing access controls is forbidden by the US Code, except in rare instances. The problem with this, of course, is that it violates our Fair Use rights as citizens, and it punishes those of us who abide by the rules, while the real pirates (organized crime) go on largely unabated.

Microsoft, among others, wants to see this changed.

Currently, HD DVD is the only next-gen format to provide for the ability to legally make copies of optical content. Dubbed "Managed Copy," HD DVD implements part of the AACS control mechanism to allow for things such as putting digital copies of a disc on a hard drive, transferring a movie (legally) to a portable player, or streaming content on a home network. Furthermore, HD DVD makes Managed Copy mandatory: all content provided on HD DVD must give users the option of making at least one copy. Jordi Ribas, director of technical strategy for the Windows Digital Media Division, told me that while the feature is mandatory, the studios will have the option of charging for it. Ribas hopes that studios will allow at least a single copy "for free," but it may be market conditions that ultimately determine the cost of such features. The take-away, at least, is that studios have to offer something, and AACS is structured in such a way that the studios can tap into it to offer users more options.

Furthermore, because Managed Copy is part of the AACS specification, this isn't a feature exclusive to Microsoft or Intel solutions. While both companies believe that their respective products (Media Center Edition, and Viiv, respectively) will shine in a world were Managed Copy is available, AACS defines a set of requirements that technically any company could aspire to, be it Apple, Motorola, or another player in the game.

What about Blu-ray? Currently, Blu-ray has announced no such mandatory support. There are also plenty of questions about whether or not Blu-ray will entertain this option. The Blu-ray Disc Association so far has adopted AACS conditionally; it is still subject to review. Furthermore, Blu-ray to date has adopted content protections above and beyond AACS, adding BD+ and ROM-Mark to their arsenal. Such added protections appear to be part of an appeasement plan: the studios want more than AACS protection, at least least some of them do. The doors haven't closed on Managed Copy for Blu-ray, but Ribas suspects that if it does show, it may be completely optional, to the extent that content producers may simply not offer it at all. It also remains unclear as to how BD+'s unique compliance rules could be made to work with AACS's managed copy scheme. In general, Ribas' view is that the BDA is uncommitted to Managed Copy. I expect to talk to someone in the BDA in the next few days.
Hybrid mode: drop-in upgrade?

Ribas also emphasized that HD DVD's hybrid support was ideal for consumers. As I noted yesterday, the idea is simple: if HD DVD discs can play standard definition content in already-existing DVD players, then the entire industry could theoretically switch to HD DVD printing quickly, and kill two birds with one stone. As you may know, a DVD is comprised of two discs that when bonded together are 1.2mm thick. Toshiba's current plan is to put SD content on one side of the disc, and HD content on the other side. In theory, this eliminates problems with older DVD players having difficulties focusing on dual-layer content on one side of the disc. With the costs of converting existing DVD production lines to HD DVD lines being significantly cheaper than supporting Blu-ray, HD DVD proponents see HD DVD as being a no-brainer. The "future proofing" of the format means everyone goes home happy, including consumers who buy DVDs next year that will play back in HD whenever they get around to upgrading their players two years from now.

Finally, Ribbas said that Microsoft's decision was made with respects to where things are today, not where the respective formats' proponents claim they will be in several months. Today, Ribbas says, HD DVD has bigger capacity, and true hybrid support. In his view, HD DVD is at 30GB, while Blu-ray is at 25GB. On paper, Blu-ray has 50GB support, but outside of a lab context, the 50GB disc is missing in action. How feasible is a 50GB disc in the short term? Once Blu-ray devices ship (such as the PS3), the base configuration will be established. If 50GB disc support isn't nailed by then, then Blu-ray on the consumer player-level will weigh in at 25GB. Toshiba is now pointing to 30GB as the standard HD DVD disc size, and they claim to have perfected the manufacturing process already. So we can expect 30GB HD DVD support at launch. Additionally, HD DVD supports hybrid discs now, while Blu-ray's solution has yet to be demonstrated.

Despite all of this, Ribas indicated that Microsoft was still holding out hope for a universal standard, but such a standard would necessarily need to support things such as Managed Copy and hybrid support.

One thing is clear to me now: HD DVD looked down and out, but it now looks quite promising. The question now is how will the studios react? Is it too little, too late?

Blu-ray fires back at HD DVD camp, Microsoft responds

by Ken "Caesar" Fisher

Calling the reasons cited by Microsoft and Intel for choosing HD DVD over Blu-ray "inaccurate," members of the Blu-ray Disc Association group issued that they characterized as "corrections" on a number of issues, ranging from capacity to managed copy support. Strap yourselves in folks, because we are two days into what is going to become a media war.

Just yesterday I spoke with Jordi Ribas, director of technical strategy for the Windows Digital Media Division, about Microsoft's deciding factors. Ribas emphasized that Microsoft's decision to back HD DVD was based on how the competing specifications look today, and not on claims about what may or may not be available in the future. One key aspect in the decision was capacity: Microsoft said that HD DVD was launching at 30GB, and that a spring launch was a certainty (Toshiba is reportedly aiming for February). Ribas said that this put HD DVD in front of Blu-ray, inasmuch as Blu-ray has not proven a manufacturing process for 50GB discs outside of carefully controlled lab environments.

Blu-ray hit back today, saying that Blu-ray would be 50GB at launch, although no launch date was mentioned. This would give Blu-ray a 20GB lead over HD DVD's 30GB capcity. However, Richard E. Doherty, program manager in Microsoft's media entertainment technology convergence group, cast a shadow over just when the launch would be.

HD DVD is proven to deliver 30GB capacity today, with the potential to deliver even greater capacity. The 50GB claim for BD-ROM discs is unproven and will not be available for many years to come, based on discussions with major Japanese and US replicators. Replicators not only do not have test lines running, they cannot even pre-order the equipment to begin evaluating this disc. They cannot judge the cost of these discs, or even whether they can be manufactured at all. Major replicators can mass manufacture 30GB HD DVD discs today and it's well understood that these discs will cost significantly less to manufacture than the lower-capacity 25GB BD discs.

The BDA also noted that they were first to design a hybrid disc that would play in existing DVD players, and that hybrid support was merely a matter of adding red lasers to player hardware. JVC was demoing a hybrid disk earlier this month, although it has not been established that the manufacturing process has been perfected. Doherty here also stressed the matter of timing in delivering a solution. Saying that "HD DVD has shown that hybrid discs will be a reality for consumers at launch," he indicated that there was "no roadmap for the development and availability of a BD hybrid disc," and there was no evidence that MEI or Panasonic can manufacture the disc. "While it may be possible to manufacture such a disc in the distant future, no data indicates these can be available at launch and it's unlikely they'll be available for several years," he added.

As to the central issue of managed copy, the BDA noted that managed copy is part of the AACS protection specification, and not part of the optical format per se. However, their carefully worded response did not address the issue of mandatory managed copy support, which still leaves things where we suspected they were yesterday: publishers may or may not offer managed copy through Blu-ray, which is something that Ribas indicated that Microsoft was not comfortable with. Microsoft wants the option available on all discs. Doherty added that while HD DVD has pledge their mandatory support publicly, "the BD has not done so and continues to refuse to do so."

If I can boil it down right now, I'd say the big issues are timing and managed copy. Microsoft clearly feels that the HD DVD solution will be finished and launched far, far in advance of Blu-ray, and they want universal mandatory managed copy, to boot.

I know that a formal response from HD DVD is in the works, so stay tuned. In the meantime, there's plenty to think about, and while it may not all be entirely clear at this point, the discussion is at least happening on a public level.

And if Blu-ray 50GB is truly "many years" away, is it worth waiting for?

[terryj]

And if Blu-ray 50GB is truly "many years" away, is it worth waiting for?

provided that Apple has a say in using its Fairplay DRM, yes.
Would you rather have say, Apple fighting to give us a
guaranteed number of backup burns/copies per disc,

or M$ "hoping that studios will allow at least a single copy "for free,"
but it may be market conditions that ultimately determine the cost
of such features."
which translates to "screw the consumer if the studios
say they'll pay us more to do so."

Apple is currently fighting TimeWarner over per cost of song downloads.
M$ put their DRM on the Foo Fighters's latest cd, and caused the record
label to basically post how to break it, for fear of refunding
customers money.

so yes, I'll wait....

[edDV]

"Strap yourselves in folks, because we are two days into what is going to become a media war."

The issue isn't disc capacity at launch. The issue is DRM flexibility in networked environments. Disc capacity requirements lessen as h.264/VC-1 take over.

Sony, et.al. are in serious danger of repeating Betamax.

On a personal note, Sony was in denial on Betamax even after the war had been lost. I was assigned a young Sony engineer-manager trainee to assist me back in the early 1980's. Practice at that time was for Sony "trainees" to wait until age 40 for their first true management assignment. I asked the 30 something manager about his career plans. He said that he aspired to the Sony Consumer Betamax Division. When I asked why he seemed determined. Then I broke the news that Sony was actually manufacturing VHS tape blanks in Dothan Alabama and that in the US, Sony appeared to have given up on Betamax.

This was devistating news to the young man. He didn't want to believe me. He went back to his managers and was told the truth. I hated to see his spirit broken and suggested he consider the Betacam Division instead.

[MikieV]

Inside Microsoft's decision to back HD DVD

By Ken "Caesar" Fisher

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

...

The decision to back HD DVD stems not from a dislike of Sony, but from the assessment of the maturity and consumer-friendliness of HD DVD. No, seriously.
Managed Copy: what is it, and what it isn't

...

I believe the lack of "iHD" support by Blu-ray is the pisser for Microsoft, not "optional" managed copy. If iHD is truly the "glue that holds together the "Vista vision" of Microsoft's future Windows platform" - M$ would be idiots to back a format which re-buffed its use.


Granted the interview with Microsoft's Ribas is on Tom's, but it contains an interesting factoid:
http://www.tomshardware.com/hardnews/20050927_190208.html

In an exclusive interview with Tom's Hardware Guide, one of Microsoft's lead representatives on the DVD Forum Steering Committee said that decisions regarding whether his company and Intel would back and promote HD DVD as a high-definition video disc standard, were determined only within the last few days. ... yada yada ... "Until now, we viewed ourselves more as a technology provider for both groups," said Jordi Ribas, Microsoft's director of technology strategy for Windows Digital Media, and a key developer of the VC-1 codec currently in use by both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

...yada yada...

The final entry is interactivity standards. Although Microsoft and Disney jointly developed the iHD interactivity layer, based on XML - which is the glue that holds together the "Vista vision" of Microsoft's future Windows platform - and even though Disney is a Blu-ray proponent, the Association chose instead to endorse BDJ, an implementation of Sun-s Java Mobile Edition. Ribas told us that the major studios - either publicly or quietly - are opposed to BDJ, citing its relative complexity and its lack of compelling new features compared to iHD. An optional commentary track for videos, for example, that superimposes the speaker's image on-screen as well as providing audio, is one key iHD feature that BDJ will support only as an option, maybe. "Which means nobody will use it," said Ribas.

Too bad neither Intel nor M$ own any studios, to ensure content is released on HD DVD.

[edDV]

Too bad neither Intel nor M$ own any studios, to ensure content is released on HD DVD.

Either could buy one with pocket change.

Buy one, the others would have to follow.

All this is posturing, Microsoft and Intel working together are in a high power position to force standards or cause hugh harm to Hollywood.

[MikieV]

Buy one, the others would have to follow.

If that were true, Sony would have already won - since they own/control three??

The content providers want the maximum control over their property, and blu-ray is apparently more eager to supply it.

Microsoft and Intel see "flexible" control content provider's property as more popular amongst people likely to buy Windows Media Center systems, so they back HD DVD.

I'm waiting to see which content owners (if any) release their property in both formats, and which (if any) release on only one format.

Dual-format players could allow both camps to make money, without a clear winner emerging for years - with the distinct possibility that the "next big thing" will make them both obsolete before one wins the format "war".

[edDV]

Buy one, the others would have to follow.

If that were true, Sony would have already won - since they own/control three??

I'm not so sure. If Wintel calculate that DVD media can be a "loss leader" to selling MCE and home networking/portable hardware/software and they actively target the media only sellers as anti-consumer, they could force DVD prices down causing independent media producer stock to crash, allowing Wintel to buy more media studios and ... on it goes.

That may not happen but is the undertext of the hardball negotiations that are just beginning. MS and Intel cash balances give them substantial power to drive a solution.

DVD media is currently overpriced and adding usage restrictions only widens the reality gap that can cause the collapse of Hollywood. Almost anyone can produce HD movies on a shoestring as can be seen nightly on InHD, HDNet, IFC and Sundance, not to mention HBO et all.

[DanSlagle]

Almost anyone can produce HD movies on a shoestring as can be seen nightly on InHD, HDNet, IFC and Sundance, not to mention HBO et all.

True... true heck I will be doing HD soon enough!

[MikieV]

I'm not so sure. If Wintel calculate that DVD media can be a "loss leader" to selling MCE and home networking/portable hardware/software and they actively target the media only sellers as anti-consumer...

An interesting parallel with Apple's iTunes Music Store (iTMS), where their contract with the content-owners is coming-up for renewal.

Jobs saying the studios are "greedy" for wanting to charge more than 99-cents (US) per song, while gleefully selling millions of iPods - and making a sweet-heart deal for flash memory with Samsung (and the resultant "culling of the herd" in flash-based players).

Movie execs have got to be leery of giving too much power to Wintel, or else they'll be facing the same problem that the music industry has with iTMS.

[terryj]

an addition to this:
Paramount to join Blu-Ray

[edDV]

Movie execs have got to be leery of giving too much power to Wintel, or else they'll be facing the same problem that the music industry has with iTMS.

I think Wintel have held on to their billions in cash to defeat Hollywood when the time is right.

They are in the business of selling hardware and software and won't let West/Central Hollywood DRM get in the way.

As for West/Cental Hollywood, they needed a kick years ago.

PS: I said a kick, not a knock-out.

[the future]

Some facts about that MSFT FUD.

1. Managed Copy (MC) is part of AACS. Both HD-DVD and Blu-ray utilize AACS, so both will have MC. BD+ has nothing to do with this and will not interfere with AACS/MC as the BDA has confirmed.

2. Every BR player sold from day one will be able to play 50 GB discs. It's in the spec. It may take some time for movies to be published on 50 GB (dual-layer) discs, just as it did with DVD-9, but it will happen, and rather sooner than later. So the capacity advantage of BR is very real.

3. The hybrid HD-DVD discs (flippers) would be significantly more expensive to produce than regular HD-DVD discs. As initial manufacturing cost is the only real advantage of HD-DVD, this is not likely to be used a lot.

4. MSFT and Intel are only bit-players in this game. Content is king. Intel just declared that they will support Blu-ray if MC is go. As that will be the case (see 1.), Intel is practically neutral anyway. What are they gonna do, refuse to sell chips to Dell, HP and Apple (all BD supporters)? AMD would surely approve.

5. The announcement of Paramount to support Blu-ray as well was a huge blow for HD-DVD. If Universal and/or Warner follow, it's game over.

[terryj]

game over:
Warner announces intent to close deal supporting Blu-Ray

[DanSlagle]

I was thinking NOT game over and now it is up for grabs again.

[terryj]

way of the world, my friend.

how much you wanna bet things will change AGAIN
before things become commercially available?