Filesize double the calculated value using 2P VBR in TMPG?

[BlueWeasel]

I've got several episode AVIs that I'm trying to convert to DVD using 2-pass VBR with TMPG. I'm trying to fit 6 x 22.5 minute episodes on a single DVD (~135 min total) with 128kpbs audio. This would put the filesize of converted episodes around 700MB.

Using several of the bitrate calculators, I came out with an average bitrate of about 4250kbps. Here are my general TMPG settings:

Stream Type MPEG-2 Video
Size: 704x480
Aspect Ratio:16:9 Display
Frame Rate: 23.967 fps (internally 29.97fps)
Rate Control 2-pass VBR (200 min, 4250 avg, 8000 max)
Profile & Level: MP@ML
Video Format: NTSC
Encode Mode: 3:2 pulldown when playback
YUV format: 4:2:0

DC component precision: 9 bits
Motion search precision: Motion estimate search (fast)
- - - - - - - - - - -
Video Source type: Non-Interlace (progressive)
Field Order: Top Field First (field A)
Source Aspect Ratio: 1:1 (VGA)
Video Arrange Method: Full Screen (KAR)
- - - - - - - - - - -

I'm only processing the ES using TMPG (no audio). The first episode I converted with the above settings came out to 1.42GB.

Am I missing something here? I've checked all the settings, but didn't see anything that jumps out at me. I thought the advantage of using 2P VBR was it allows you to hit a certain filesize.

[Baldrick]

Check the converted video so it isn't several minutes black video at the end.
Use a bitrateviewer and check the bitrate.

[BlueWeasel]

Check the converted video so it isn't several minutes black video at the end.
Use a bitrateviewer and check the bitrate.

Just my luck....I've already deleted the converted m2v files.

If I'm starting from scratch, is there anything I need to change?

I've read over the TMPG problems threads at the top of this forum, but didn't see anything that applied to my situation.

I've read that TMPG sometimes doesn't like a minimum bitrate less than 1500-2000kbps. Could setting the min. value to 200 be causing the problem.

Also, the second episode I converted came to be 942Mb. I'm really suprised at the variance between the 2 (1.42Gb vs. 942Mb) considering they are exactly the same length (+/- 20 sec or so).

[BlueWeasel]

Just an update, I reran the 2P VBR last night, and the only settings I changed was I increased the min bitrate to 1000 and lowered the maximum BR to 7000.

The encoded file came within 10MB of the calculated filesize.