Dual Layer Cost, Opinions?

[sammie]

I just did a quick search on going rate for dual layer media. In general, it looks like the disks are all in the $20+ a piece range. Now obviously I expected there to be the typical "new innovation price". But it raised a question in my mind. Drawing a paralell between costs of other media afrom their introduction to when they became cost effective, it looks like the price for DL's is going to be prohibitive for 3 - 5 years again. I personally can't see paying more than twice the current going rate for high end single layer media, so say $3.00. Even at that price I would only do a rare "special" recording on DL.

Now, it finally appears that high definition is going mainstream. Even DL disks can't cope with the amount of HD data. The new "Blu" whichever technologies are actually older than the DL technology, except that of course DL is based on the modification of current DVD writeables. My point being that at most the new technology price bump for HD will only be a year or two behind the DL technology. My next DVD burner will be dual layer, probably becuase I don't need one right now and in a year or two I'll have little choice in the matter. My new authoring and burning programs will be too for the same reason................. But, beyond that I don't see DL as being a huge success. It kind of strikes me as the same as 2.88 meg floppies. Twice as much data true, but Zips and writeable CD's hit the market at the same time and quickly relegated them to the who cares aisle.

Just looking to stimulate a little discussion here, but does anyone see DLs as becoming a cost effective technology, before "Blu" becomes enough of a reality to justify waiting? I was interested enough to look, but now I'm not sure that it's going to be worth considering unless there is a major hiccup in the HD road.

[Treebeard]

I tend to agree with you. Simply because the DL is way too pricey and will be for 1-2 years, and the compatability w/ existing setop dvd players is poor. Im not going to go buy a new player so I can play these discs. I am happy w/ my single layer dvd backups as they are.

[sammie]

Wow, I was kind of hoping someone would tell me I had missed something and was full of it, they were gonna cost $3.00 by next year. There are a few disks that I think dual layer is a good solution. Like Treebeard though, I'm pefectly happy with either delete and compress or split for 95% of what I have.

[handyguy]

Instead of double layer (not dual layer) you could use two sided disks. They aren't that expensive.

[leebo]

You're full of it. DL discs will cost $3 by this time next year.

Instead of double layer (not dual layer)

Huh?

[Vanderlow]

Verbatim and Memorex annouced prices at $13. With Ritek just now gearing up production I suspect prices will fall in the next two months below $10.

[Madz]

I found it kinda funny that the projected price & the actual price differ dramatically. Americal.com had them projected at $6 & change each about 1½ months ago; then it went to $13 & change about two weeks later; now they're $21.99 each singlely. At that rate, if I bought ~¾ dozen blanks, I'd nearly be out the price of a DL burner a second time!

[sammie]

As far as flippers go, I don't see any good reason for them. You still have to go change the disk. I guess you could argue you might lose one, but if you are in the habit of losing disks, I'd argue you might just as likely lose the single flipper. If you like them great, but I just split and do two disks.

@leebo Now, realize as I admitted I hope I'm wrong, but why do you think so? The history of just about every new format has been. $20+ at introduction falling to around $10+ over the first year and $5 over the next year. Some halve in price the third year, but some slowly fall from $5. It looks to me like DL is following the same pattern. And actually it makes sense. DL seems like it is definitely going to be one of the most technically challenging medias to manufacture. The good news is the writers are only slightly different than current models, and it looks like it will be a pretty standard feature on almost all new burners, so the hardware cost will be insignificant (assuming you needed a new burner ). Do you think a rapid hardware changeover will drive the media cost down faster than usual? Why do you think that will offset the possible manufacturing difficulty factor of 2 overlaid layers?

@Madz I've read a couple of places that the manufacturers are fighting quality control problems on the outside layer. Not surprisingly I guess, that layer needs to meet really tight tolerances for the thing to work. The spin was certainly overcomeable, but there was a high waste factor right now. Probably explains the forecast vs. reality price. Actually, Americal was one of the places I just checked and everything I saw was in the $20+ range. What type were they and where did you find them listed?

[leebo]

@leebo Now, realize as I admitted I hope I'm wrong, but why do you think so? The history of just about every new format has been. $20+ at introduction

Sammie, I was just kidding in reference to your wishes that somebody tell U you're full of it. But actually, I bought the Pioneer A03 as soon as it came out. Blanks were about $12 for Pioneer brand and about half for lessor known brands soon after. I'd expect duals to run $8 to $10 b4 Christmas, but I'm just guessing.

[naturalzinc]

read these, bitches! :P

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/10141

http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,116915,00.asp

[lenti_75]

I'd expect duals to run $8 to $10 b4 Christmas, but I'm just guessing.

did u mean NEXT christmas ???? not this one...... until something new, as HD comes out, these discs will be above 5 bones for a long time.

and the price for singles, will stay at this range... forever...... :P

[leebo]

Well, this bitch wasn't born yesterday.

There are many other things to consider:

A marketing person is not going to put out information that could make potential customers wait to buy their products.

Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats could make dual layer less in demand real quick.

There could be others, but I'm lazy as well as old.

[leebo]

these discs will be above 5 bones for a long time.

If a bone is equal to $1 then I'd say $8 to $10 is above 5 bones.
As for single layer, how long have you been burning CD's? I've gotten them for free. I'll agree that those aren't likely to go lower - unless they pay me to take them.

My point is, never say never. Damn, I just said it.

[Madz]

Actually, Americal was one of the places I just checked and everything I saw was in the $20+ range. What type were they and where did you find them listed?

The Verbatim +DL's on the link below. About late May/early June they were listed as special order being available after June 30th @ $6.29 each. Then about the 2nd week of June, $13.39 (?) each. Now they're $18.89-21.99 depending on number bought. So if I bought a 10-pack I'd be nearly out the price of a Sony 700A again.

http://www.americal.com/ct/double%20layer%208.5gb%20dvd%20media.html

[sammie]

read these, bitches! :P

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/10141

http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,116915,00.asp

Um, er..........these two articles seem to support exactly what I was saying???

"Part of the reason for the low supply is that double-layer discs are difficult to make, Clatterbuck claims. Each disc has two dye layers that hold the data sandwiched together. The manufacturing process is far more complicated than that of single-layer discs, so the yields (the percentage of usable discs that are produced out of the total) are still low.

"A typical single-layer DVD yield is typically 90 to 92 percent; the double-layer (yield) right now is probably around 50 percent," says Clatterbuck.

In other words, manufacturers end up throwing away around half of the discs they produce because they aren't up to snuff. "And the thing that you are throwing away is more expensive than a single [layer disc] because you have more dye and have had to put more technology into producing it."

Another citation that right now manufacturers are having are having a hard time making these. They hope/think they'll have it under control soon but don't right now.

Thanks Madz, so like I saw, right now in the $20 range. See the quote above for the why the sudden price jump. Which, since the new DL drives aren't really that much different than the previous models is exactly what yousaid. 5-8 disks, pays for the drive. Well, hope I'm wrong and in a year or so they are "a little less than twice a single layer". But it sure seems likely that we'll all be saving our pennies anticipating buying that first "Blu" writer to drop below $400 about the same time we see cost effective DL-DVDs.

[pete2828]

I think DL layer disks will be around $7 by christmass and around $5 in a year. I don't think that DL media prices will ever be lower than $4-5. I also believe DVD-5 (good stuff) prices will not be lower than $0.50. Since DL media in my opinion will never be less than 10X the price of single layer disks; no one will buy them.

Whether Blu-ray wins the war or not depends on a lot of factors we don't know yet?? Media price, burner price, players price, how much more Data??

[sammie]

I think DL layer disks will be around $7 by christmass and around $5 in a year. I don't think that DL media prices will ever be lower than $4-5. I also believe DVD-5 (good stuff) prices will not be lower than $0.50. Since DL media in my opinion will never be less than 10X the price of single layer disks; no one will buy them.

Whether Blu-ray wins the war or not depends on a lot of factors we don't know yet?? Media price, burner price, players price, how much more Data??

I kind of agree on the $.50 a piece bit, maybe a bit less, but that seems to be the bottom price for media. Not sure I agree on the never less than $5 per disk.

Keep in mind there is so little difference in the burners that most all new burners coming out are going to do DL. So there will be a much higher adoption of DL hardware than would be typical. I guess it could happen that prices stay high if the quality control issues prove insurmountable, but so far the manufacturers aren't saying that they can't reach the QC level needed, only that it's taking some work.

I'm pretty sure the immediate future is Blu something because none of the major manufacuters or movie studios are considering much anything else. Now obviously if for some reason Blu gets off to a roaring start and catches up quickly in the cost effectiveness game people would rapidly abandon DL as their main high megabyte burner and there would be little point in manufacuters working to drop the cost. But even then, I think the cost will continue to drop as there is now a huge installed base of set top DVD players that play DL, and obviously not Blu. I don't think anyone has a great handle on how "compatible" DL is with all existing players, but new players will start checking to make sure they work with DL disks as they become more common. So there will be some drive in the market to lower DL costs, even after Blu becomes common and competitive in price. So the price drop may slow, but I think it will continue till it hits around 1.8X SL.

It's just my take on it that I won't be ripping out my dvd buner anytime soon JUST to replace it with a DL burner. And if it makes it another year or so without dying or becoming a dinosaur speedwise, I'll probably hold out and buy one of those first $459 Blu writers as they become available.

[lenti_75]

these discs will be above 5 bones for a long time.

As for single layer, how long have you been burning CD's? I've gotten them for free. I'll agree that those aren't likely to go lower - unless they pay me to take them.

My point is, never say never. Damn, I just said it.

It' been a while since first cd burning....you get them for free ???


let me know where you find good stuff for free.....cause i had those piece of shit stuffs that i should not even bother to send the mail in rebate form....

[leebo]

I'd expect duals to run $8 to $10 b4 Christmas, but I'm just guessing.

I so love being right.

As posted by rmd3003:

http://www.cddvdking.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=693

About $6.60 per disc.[/quote]

[vioxx]

"I also believe DVD-5 (good stuff) prices will not be lower than $0.50."

No No No,

All my DVD-5 IS $0.50 now.

Cheaper than a CD-R.

[leebo]

@leebo Now, realize as I admitted I hope I'm wrong, but why do you think so? The history of just about every new format has been. $20+ at introduction

I'd expect duals to run $8 to $10 b4 Christmas, but I'm just guessing.

I guessed too high! You can get them for just over $6 already.

[glockjs]

did i read that right or am i losin it? $.50 is the lowest for blank dvd's? thats how much TY is at www.rima.com and prodisc $.36 after shipping. i could just be misunderstanding whats being said though. none the less, it's just like anything...the more that is made the less the cost is. i dont see blu ray or hd dvd taking off as quickly as everybody is saying. it wont be until a few years that it'll be in full swing. too many consumers now have dvd.

[leebo]

did i read that right or am i losin it? $.50 is the lowest for blank dvd's?

That post was early September.

[handyguy]

2.4x might be $7 by jan. But thats cause 4x DL is coming out in jan of feb.

[glockjs]

did i read that right or am i losin it? $.50 is the lowest for blank dvd's?

That post was early September.

bahh details....in sep dvd5 was still cheaper than $.50 a piece...maybe not TY but some good media was

[Shocker Milwaukee]

I'd expect duals to run $8 to $10 b4 Christmas, but I'm just guessing.

I so love being right.

As posted by rmd3003:

http://www.cddvdking.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=693

About $6.60 per disc.

That link is for an 18 pack @ $179.95

That's $10 per disc.

[leebo]

That's $10 per disc.

Perhaps thats why my post stated "$8 to $10"???

Anyway, you can get them for under $7 now, in the US anyway.

[FulciLives]

What good are DL discs when:

1.) They are crap ass +R format
2.) Hardly anyone can get them to burn properly
3.) If you manage point 2 what do they play on without issues?

I could care less about price than about them actually working well.

I am afraid that by the time that happens we may actually have something else to play with like red laser HD DVD or Blue-Ray etc.

In other words standard DL discs may never be popular due to price and technical issues.

I suppose in the meantime the best you can do is split it out over 2 DVD5 blanks and buy a 5 disc changer so you minimize your wait time from disc 1 to disc 2.

- John "FulciLives" Coleman

[jtommyj]

Newegg has them for 6.66 per disc in the Verbatim 3 pack delivered to PA and after a 10 MIR. These burn fine for me in my NEC 3500 @ 4x as do the Ritek DL @4x so far and play without error in my Toshiba 3950 and my Philips 711 so far.I have some Kprobe scans over at www.cdfreaks.com which you can see here-http://club.cdfreaks.com/showthread.php?t=112332

I have only burned 3 of each so this isn't a scientific conclusion at all.

If you know anything about Kprobe scans, i don't get alot of single layer burns that much better than these so if you need the Ritek they have worked for me. So have the Verbatims. YMMV. You be the judge.

All DL burners I know of automatically set the booktype on DVD+R DL to DVD-ROM.

It has been my experience that the best way for the DL media to work is to rip and burn in ISO format with DVD-Decrypter so as not to change or move the layer break. Your way may be better. My way works for me.

Tom

DISCLAIMER- Please read closely.
1- I am not saying these discs are cheap.
2- I am not saying these DL discs may not have issues with some burners or players.
3- I am not saying these discs are economical.
4- This is in no way an endorsement of any DL disc,DL disc burner, or a guarantee that your results will be the same. The variables in firmwares and individual hardware components may vary from unit to unit. This information is to be used for reference purposes only and is only my experience so far. Your experiences may differ.

[FulciLives]

DISCLAIMER- Please read closely.
1- I am not saying these discs are cheap.
2- I am not saying these DL discs may not have issues with some burners or players.
3- I am not saying these discs are economical.
4- This is in no way an endorsement of any DL disc,DL disc burner, or a guarantee that your results will be the same. The variables in firmwares and individual hardware components may vary from unit to unit. This information is to be used for reference purposes only and is only my experience so far. Your experiences may differ.

Tom:

You are either a comedian or a lawyer

- John "FulciLives" Coleman