Predictions for new TV technology in 2005

[joepic]

Here is a very interesting web site that I found.

http://www.tvpredictions.com/predictions.html

Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is making 40
predictions for new TV technology in 2005. A new prediction will be
published every weekday at TV Predictions for the rest of 2004,
except for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Below is a list of his
predictions to date.

Prediction #1 -- You'll Watch the Nightly News In HDTV
Prediction #2 -- DIRECTV to Offer 'Interactive' American Idol
Prediction #3 -- TiVo Subs to Drop in Second Half of 2005
Prediction #4 -- Portable Video Will Fail In 2005
Prediction #5 -- 2005: A Big Year for Cable DVRs
Prediction #6 -- FCC's Powell Will Resign
Prediction #7 -- Voom Meets Its Doom
Prediction #8 -- Adult HD-DVDs to Rise in 2005

[bugster]

Prediction #8 -- Adult HD-DVDs to Rise in 2005

[edDV]

Nothing risky* on that list. Is he predicting blue sky in July as well?

*Especially the ones with no time in the prediction.

[glockjs]

portable video will fail??? yeah mmmkay

[solarfox]

glockjs -- If you follow the links to Swann's actual articles, the "portable video" he's talking about is the current movement to put video onto cell phones and other small-screen portable devices.

His analysis of why it isn't likely to catch on actually makes a lot of sense, and is probably why Apple seems to be in no hurry to release a "video iPod." Listening to music is something that can be done anywhere, and doesn't require your full attention; you can listen to your iPod while doing other things, making them useful almost everywhere. Video, on the other hand, requires you to focus your attention on the screen for long periods of time (at least 23 minutes for a half-hour TV show if you skip the commercials), so the opportunities to use such a device are a lot more limited.

There's also a size issue involved. Your ears don't particularly care how large or small your headphones are, as long as they have sufficient frequency response to reproduce the music acceptably. On the other hand, I venture to say few people particularly wants to watch that episode of "Law & Order" they missed last night on their cell phone's 2-inch LCD screen...

[glockjs]

sometimes i dont follow links very well, or even click on them



with that said, maybe 2005 isnt ready yet but someday portable video will be big. i'd think it would more have to do with streaming from the internet though as apposed to downloading.