The PC is Dead

[Doramius]

Overall, the PC is not dead. However, the masses no longer need to be tethered to a cabled machine. The truths are that mobile devices are getting more powerful, and in many cases for the general public, they are already there. i7 tablets with DDR4 16GB memory, m.2 512GB SSDs, 2GB DDR5 video. I'd have sold my left nut and crapped my drawers several times over to get that kind of raw computing power to do encoding 10 years ago. I, like many others envisioned it would happen. I remember telling people touch screens were going to revolutionize computing the industry. Many had told me that it just wouldn't be possible and people's arms would get tired, like they thought other technology like the mouse and keyboard would disappear. In ways it has. However, desktops are not out, lost, kicked to the curb, or dead. A PC is a "Personal Computer". Pretty much anyone who has a smartphone or tablet has one. However, the "traditional" view/idea of a PC design has changed. It's an evolutionary movement in PCs. The large clunky desktops are no longer necessary to provide major computing power. Micro form factors are becoming ever more popular. Thin clients and micro towers in business environments are opening up deskspace in the enterprise world. If internet service technologies would get off their profit grubbing asses and actually work on infrastructure, Virtual Machine software would probably overtake most of the world by storm. ANY device would be able to be used to access your data at any time, from anywhere, in amazing speeds not even fathomed...BUT, many people will still keep some form of traditional desktop for data backup at their home or places of business. The true "END" of the PC would actually be through Cloud technology. As cloud technology gets more prevalent and inexpensive, people will not need a home storage machine. There will be a day when computing power will be low heat, low electricity, high multi-core/thread processing all packaged in a small handheld formfactor that produces audio and graphics that are more realistic than reality. All data will be accessible on the could without the need of large storage on the device itself. Any type of production applications and programs will not need to be installed directly on the device, but be more web-based platforming. When this happens...the PC will officially be dead.

[johns0]

Cloud technology won't change much to me,do you trust having anything on a server where you don't have control over?

[KarMa]

Rolling your own is a single digit fraction of the market, so it doesn't even move the needle.

Never been on a guts thread?
http://boards.4chan.org/g/thread/55682813/guts

"Single digit fraction" doesn't make sense. Maybe single digit percentage, or a fraction of 1%. But not what you wrote.

And how would one quantify the people who build their own PC or upgrade their PC, into a PC purchase stat? If I upgrade my CPU, my RAM and add a HDD does that count for half a computer sale? If I replace everything but the MOBO, does that not count as PC sale considering Microsoft only ties the OS to the MOBO. You can do whatever you want to your PC but once you replace that MOBO, you need to buy a new copy of Windows.

This bait thread made it to page 10, congrats.

[MJPollard]

Cloud technology won't change much to me,do you trust having anything on a server where you don't have control over?

I trust nothing to the cloud. Anything I have out there, I also have backed up on local storage. Common sense. In fact, there was a story recently where some artist had pretty much his entire portfolio wiped out because it was stored on a Blogger site that Google had deleted (reason unknown to me). Anyone who puts important stuff in the cloud without keeping local backups deserves little sympathy, in my opinion.

[SameSelf]

^^^doramius, interesting points. And they spark some additional thoughts that I have not bothered to expostulate because rather than engage in thoughtful discussion, most prefer to treat this thread as flamebait, name call, and engage in all kinds of juvenile behavior that detracts from this forum and thread (4chan, no thanks, that site is the literal gutter of the internet).

Here is my spin. The desktop PC is simply too inefficient.

In the early days of computing, "thin clients" were the only model. You had a single, giant mainframe and any number of distributed dumb terminals and keyboards that could remote in and submit batch jobs. The problem with this model was that mainframes were only available to people who worked at the large institutions: government, universities, corporations, etc. And even within these institutions, mainframe time was a scarce resource that largely crowded out everything but the most important projects. But for all its downsides, the mainframe model offered a big upside in that utilization approached 100%.

The PC revolutionized that model by giving each user their own microcomputer in a box that sat on or under their desk. It wasn't as powerful as a mainframe, but it was better than nothing. However, these PC's spent a lot of their time idle and consumed far more power per flops than a mainframe, but that was OK because the benefits vastly outweighed the inefficiencies introduced. And some problems were better suited for a PC anyway.

But read this article, and you will get the sense that PCs were just a pit stop on our way to an interconnected world where the lionshare of the flops are done on big mainframes. WIRED: Why on Earth Is IBM Still Making Mainframes?. So what is different? Now everyone can access the power of a mainframe, whether they realize it or not. And they don't have to go to a university computer lab or even the desk in their home. They can simply use their phone, tablet, or laptop anywhere. The old, inefficient model of the desktop PC is no longer needed.

Final thoughts. It is much more efficient to deploy capital to grow this new interconnected world versus deploying capital to grow the PC market. That is why Dell spent $67 billion to buy EMC. I know that observation was lost on many of the posters on this forum, but it doesn't make it any less true.

Peace out

[cornemuse]

Besides, you cant step off a cliff playing 'Pokemon Go' with a desktop unit, , , ,

[El Heggunte]

The MEGAcorporations have no interest in making a utopia come true

Just saying.

[SameSelf]

Umm, you can't play Pokemon Go on a PC. Nice try though.

[SameSelf]

The MEGAcorporations have no interest in making a utopia come true

Just saying.

You are just wasting my bandwidth with that zero information post.

Just saying.

[hello_hello]

Rolling your own is a single digit fraction of the market, so it doesn't even move the needle.

That sounds like something you've made up.
Of the people I know who own a PC, I'd guess that about 50% of them either built their own, had a friend build them, or bought a "white box" PC. ie a PC built by the local PC shop. Of those that bought a brand name PC, many would have had them upgraded by a friend or their local PC shop in some shape or form during it's life. When I was doing that sort of thing, I often repaired and upgraded brand name PCs for friends. The "upgrade market" is one you continue to ignore.
It's impossible to find figures, although according to Wikipedia, white boxes made up 30% of the PC market back in 2002. The market was so large, Dell tried to tap into it by selling unbranded white boxes to PC builders and resellers.

Dell eyes 'white box' market
"Dell Computer is seeking alliances with mom-and-pop shops to further its growth in the PC market.
The Round Rock, Texas-based company is embarking on the new plan as a way to enter the "white box" market, which it estimates to be worth $3 billion annually. White-box PC sales have grown quietly over the last five years to represent roughly 30 percent of the market, according to a recent report from market researcher IDC."

That was ten years ago, and I've no idea how successful they were, but they're still at it today.
Dell's profile as a white-box PC maker grows with new industrial desktops
Dell is expanding its profile as a white-box PC maker with new industrial-grade desktop PCs. Dell will also offer the computers as unbranded PCs on which customer companies can slap their own labels.

I don't know what the figures are, probably nobody does, but I''d like to see some before accepting "rolling your own is a single digit fraction of the market" as fact rather than unsubstantiated waffle.

But read this article, and you will get the sense that PCs were just a pit stop on our way to an interconnected world where the lionshare of the flops are done on big mainframes. WIRED: Why on Earth Is IBM Still Making Mainframes?. So what is different? Now everyone can access the power of a mainframe, whether they realize it or not. And they don't have to go to a university computer lab or even the desk in their home. They can simply use their phone, tablet, or laptop anywhere. The old, inefficient model of the desktop PC is no longer needed.

Reading that article, you get the impression IBM thinks the mainframe is needed to handle the endless transactions initiated by mobile devices. That's all it refers to. Mobile devices and processing their transactions. The PC isn't mentioned. Coming away from that article with the impression you did seems like a massive case of wishful thinking.

How long do you imagine it'll be before you're editing your video over the internet on someone else's mainframe? Because until that happens the PC will be alive and well. Not to mention the potential freedom you might sacrifice when all your computing is done on a mainframe in the cloud. What will you do if your mainframe cloud computer refuses to re-encode your DVD for you on grounds of copyright infringement?

Final thoughts. It is much more efficient to deploy capital to grow this new interconnected world versus deploying capital to grow the PC market.

That shows the PC market is dead how exactly?

[El Heggunte]

You are just wasting my bandwidth with that zero information post.

And why should *I* care about that?

You are just another troll anyway.

[El Heggunte]

Final thoughts. It is much more efficient to deploy capital to grow this new interconnected world versus deploying capital to grow the PC market.

It would be even more efficient not to depend on capital at all.

Obviously, you believe the world has already reached "The end of History"

[Gregg]

Overall, the PC is not dead.

And is not going to be any time soon. Mobile device may be good for catching pokemons but entirely inconvenient for certain types of jobs.

[MOVIEGEEK]

So is the iWatch, sales are down 55%.

[SameSelf]

That is an interesting statistic given there is no such thing as an "iWatch".

[MOVIEGEEK]

Apple Watch, there are you happy SameSelf? Apple Watch

[usually_quiet]

It looks like smartphones are on their way out now too. It appears that all the real money has already been made

Smartphone sales have slowed considerably in wealthier countries. The only markets which are not yet saturated are poor countries, where customers are mainly interested in less expensive models lacking the latest and greatest tech. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3339019

[SameSelf]

Apple Watch, there are you happy SameSelf? Apple Watch

Welcome to the thread where noone is allowed to misspeak. If I were you, I would just stay away since you're so thin-skinned.

[hello_hello]

It looks like smartphones are on their way out now too. It appears that all the real money has already been made

Smartphone sales have slowed considerably in wealthier countries. The only markets which are not yet saturated are poor countries, where customers are mainly interested in less expensive models lacking the latest and greatest tech. http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3339019

A quote from your article made me smile, given Selfie has managed to decide the incremental improvements to desktops that've occurred for many years are somehow a new trend signalling the death of the PC.
Meanwhile he's not shy about referring to massive improvements in mobile computing power he imagines will see mobile devices outperform PCs in the near future.... as though it has some basis in reality.

"CSPs have introduced financing programs and vendors such as Apple now offer upgrade programs that provides users with new hardware after only 12 months. "These programs are not for everyone, as most users are happy to hold onto their phone for two years or longer than before. They do so especially as the technology updates have become incremental rather than exponential"

[usually_quiet]

A quote from your article made me smile, given Selfie has managed to decide the incremental improvements to desktops that've occurred for many years are somehow a new trend signalling the death of the PC.
Meanwhile he's not shy about referring to massive improvements in mobile computing power he imagines will see mobile devices outperform PCs in the near future.... as though it has some basis in reality.

Well, the way Selfie sees it, mobile CPUs and graphics don't have to be better, just good enough to get by with, in order to kill the PC. Software will automatically become less resource hungry or run in the cloud. Never mind that a lot of people want/need more power, or a big screen plus a full-sized keyboard and mouse (negates device mobility), and don't want to be totally dependent on their Internet connection, especially a metered one.

...but mobile CPUs are subject to the same inherent limitations of the materials used for them as PC CPUs are. These make it increasingly difficult to manufacture SoCs that are more powerful and, at the same time, more energy efficient. Any new materials technologies which would remove those limitations for mobile CPUs would remove them for PC CPUs too.

[hello_hello]

One of my relatives has to spend a few weeks in hospital and he was given an ipad mini which he gave to me to load up with video so he could keep himself entertained. I've never owned an ianything but it's not too dissimilar to Android and I own an Andriod smartphone so there wasn't much of a learning curve.

For a mobile device it struck me just how bound it is to my PC and/or home network connection. I'm not on a data plan with my cell provider, but not all the ipad minis are cellular capable anyway. To think Selfie feels sorry for anyone spending $500 on a budget PC these days, when an ipad mini2 with the maximum amount of RAM (a massive 32GB) retails for about $450 where I am, or close to $600 if you want cellular, and for the mini4 it's up to as much as $950. Out of interest I checked the current price for the top of the line ipad pro ($1950). For that I could build a pretty good PC..... actually..... a fairly decent workstation powered by one of those sku's Selfie keeps going on about.

Anyway.... for the ipad mini in front of me..... you can't connect a hard drive to it, there's no card expansion slot, and if IBM are building mainframes specifically to crunch numbers for it in the cloud, they'll mostly be communicating with it wirelessly through my home internet connection, or wired through my PC while connected via USB.

I'd like an example of the computing Selfie uses his PC-killing mobile device for, because compared directly to a traditional PC, the purpose of these devices largely escapes me, other than acting as a portable extension of the PC for lightweight applications, or as a portal between the user's wallet and the Apple Store. Especially as it's my eight year old PC currently doing the heavy lifting, transcoding video into an ifriendly format, so after I've transferred it to the mobile device I should at least be able to play it.

[-Habanero-]

The MEGAcorporations have no interest in making a utopia come true

Just saying.

You are just wasting my bandwidth with that zero information post.

Just saying.

You are wasting Videohelp's bandwidth with your inane crap and should be charged to log on here.

Just saying.

[usually_quiet]

I'd like an example of the computing Selfie uses his PC-killing mobile device for, because compared directly to a traditional PC, the purpose of these devices largely escapes me, other than acting as a portable extension of the PC for lightweight applications, or as a portal between the user's wallet and the Apple Store. Especially as it's my eight year old PC currently doing the heavy lifting, transcoding video into an ifriendly format, so after I've transferred it to the mobile device I should at least be able to play it.

True. The only tablets able to do real work are the Surface Pro, iPad Pro, and similar models which resemble laptops, plus the more expensive specialized drawing tablets for artists. Cheap tablets are only good for email, media consumption, scribbling and phone-type apps/games.

However, unlike the rest of the world including the analysts at Gartner and IDC, Selfie places laptops in the mobile device category rather than the PC category to confuse matters and to try to make his ridiculous theory more plausible. Trolls are prone to doing things like that. [Edit]...of course it could just be that he is not reading his links thoroughly enough and has a bad case of D-K syndrome.

[Gregg]

The truth is all those i-things and tablets are just toys. Serious work is done on a PC. And if anyone likes better staring at their tiny mobile screen that's entirely their problem.
Also you can call me old school or whatever but I don't trust any clouds and stuff. I want my software and files by my side, on my hard drive.

[johns0]

Lots of tablets are used for service calls,better than lugging around a laptop.

[usually_quiet]

Lots of tablets are used for service calls,better than lugging around a laptop.

...and these are used for what? Reading documents/email, filling out forms/reports, obtaining signatures? None of those activities requires much CPU power. In fact many businesses I have dealt with get along fine with paper forms.

[johns0]

That's the only good side of what tablets can do compared to laptops and home pc,after that just what you posted,i prefer home pc much more than tablets or laptops.

[redwudz]

The netbook I have (Nextbook Flexx11) I use mostly for airports and travel. I have a handful of 128GB Micro SD cards for storage.
It's also a tablet if you detach the keyboard. Runs W10 with a touchscreen. I like it where carrying a laptop would be a problem.
Great battery life also.

A tablet has it's place, but I can't really live without a keyboard. It also helps keep greasy fingerprints off the screen.
I do have a laptop and several desktop PCs and they all have their uses.

The PC is dead? Not until something much better comes along. And IMO, that time isn't near.

[hello_hello]

Thinking about it..... I joined a gym a few weeks ago. Some of it was done via traditional paperwork.... answering health questions to reduce the gym's liability.... but the membership itself was done on a tablet (I can't remember which brand). They probably had software especially written for the job.... but the tablet was used to take a membership photo which was attached to the electronic membership form I signed using the touch screen. The direct debit authority was done the same way.

And thinking about it more.... I work in the live music scene mixing bands, mostly in clubs and pubs, but even there the trend is towards digital. For example Behringer makes digital mixing consoles to which you can connect a tablet as a remote control. There's no doubt other manufacturers doing similar things (although possibly also requiring a PC host). I can see that being quite useful.

So having thought about it, there's two practical uses for a tablet, and there's no doubt others, but they're somewhat specialised and the tablet is still an extension of a central device. For the average user though, they still seem like an expensive toy to me.

[SameSelf]

You are wasting Videohelp's bandwidth with your inane crap and should be charged to log on here.

Just saying.

You should PM the mods. I hear they are always looking for winning ideas.