The PC is Dead

[SameSelf]

Apple's Tim Cook has said as much according the this link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/11984806/Apples-Tim-Cook-declares-the-end-...l-product.html

So, are the reports of the PC's death greatly exaggerated? People said the PC would kill the mainframe too, not so. It is hard getting a good sense of whether there is any weight to Cook's remarks. My efforts to read a journalists' takes on the topic have been fruitless. So here is my take. Full disclosure: I am a PC guy, so my thoughts aren't some biased rant against PCs. In fact quite the opposite, more like a sad farewell to an old friend.

First, what exactly does Tim Cook mean by the PC? My guess is he is talking about the desktop form factor most typically found perched on top or below someone's desk with an attached monitor and keyboard/mouse. I think it is a fair question to ask, "What purpose does such a form factor serve in the consumer space?" To use the thing, you gotta go to it. You can't take it with you to the couch, bed, loo, coffeeshop, etc. Contrast that with your favorite mobile device and desktops look uber-inconvenient.

But, you say, I can't be as productive with my favorite mobile device. The screen is too small, the keyboard is cramped, the thing is slow. If I need to get real work done like encoding a video, I use my desktop. Look, you are preaching to the choir here. I get it. Mobile devices are great for lightweight tasks like watching streaming video, surfing the web, checking email. For serious work, the desktop is the only realistic option. Or is it?

And here is where my thoughts differ markedly from the talking heads.

The single, biggest signal that the desktop market is dying is that the mobile space is starting to overtake the desktop space. What do I mean? Two examples.

First, pcie ssd's. When ssd's first came out, they used the same SATA interface that regular hard drives used. It didn't take long for ssd manufacturers to saturate the SATA bus and it looked for a time that SATA Express would be the next generation protocol for even faster ssd speeds. But that was so 2013. Fast forward to October 2015, Samsung unveils an ssd that uses the pcie interface and SATA Express is dead. Why is this relevant? Well, the pcie ssd actually was borrowed from the mobile space. The first pcie ssd appeared in ultrabooks more than two years ago. Many new, desktop motherboards sport the M.2 connector which makes no sense on a desktop because it lays flat or flush with the PCB versus perpendicular like a pcie card. Also, don't think for a second that you can just grab one of these beasts and pop it into a spare pcie slot. Unless you have the latest chipsets, you won't be able to boot from the device. Bottomline, the pcie ssd is a mobile technology. Watching it find its way into the desktop space over the last two years is like watching paint dry. Very frustrating for those of us used to cutting edge technology driving the desktop space.

Second, Intel has been forced to devote more R&D to mobile in order to compete head-on with ARM. The results of this strategy are most poignantly felt in the Broadwell CPU series. Released over a year ago, the first SKUs were the low-power, low performance Core M chips designed specifically for mobile devices. The arms race for faster clocks and more cores is over. The war is now about reducing power consumption to save battery life. Something the desktop user hardly needs to worry about. In fact, it looked for a time that Intel might skip over desktop sku's for Broadwell and make Skylake the desktop refresh.

What does all this mean? First, the demand for computing has swung from desktops to mobile devices. Second, the capital for R&D has flowed there as well. As a result, the market for desktops has shrunk both from a demand perspective and from a R&D capital perspective. I am not a prophet, but I think it is highly possible that Skylake could be the last desktop refresh for a long time.

In the mean time, tablets, phones, laptops will get more and more powerful and soon the desktop will look like an antiquated device unable to keep up.

So long my desktop friend. You will be missed.

[El Heggunte]

Assuming that the fäggy "decision-makers" keep going fäggier and more powerful, then yes, your prophecy may be right

[-Habanero-]

I was about to scoff at the idiocy of the general public abandoning 1920x1080+ resolutions with HD movies, games and all the quality/versatility. My urge is to completely ignore you and that journalist with full confidence that your ridiculous rambles will never amount to anything.

But I have learned from experience never to underestimate society's profound retardation again. Napster, a central server was busted which gave birth to decentralized networks for filesharing. A few thousand out of a few million users were individually busted but the network never shut down so people were looking forward to something safer. Some dork with mental problems proposed... another centralized filesharing service called BitTorrent. I thought "what kind of idiot would use that unless he wants to get busted easier?" What nobody told me was that I was surrounded by them.

So honestly, I'm not expecting common sense to prevail this time. I will never in my life use a mobile device. What others do I could care less.

[KarMa]

Hold me I'm Scared

[Cornucopia]

I will attribute some weight to these pronouncements when tablets/phones can:

1. Become modular & expandable (beyond a single usb-type connection), particularly WRT 3rd party expansion cards
2. Not have inherent heat problems
3. Not have hard, hardware limits on base RAM, local storage & bus options
4. Not be locked into base OS.
5. Not be able to "walk away by accident"
6. Be powerful, but not give you more (crap?) than you are asking for

All those features are currently enjoyed by most desktop and even some laptop PCs.

Sure, the consumer space will be further leaning towards "convenience". It's not like most home things require super PC power.
Business is another world altogether. The idea of using CURRENT, or NEAR FUTURE tablets/phones as a replacement for business/workstation/server PCs is a joke!

*Serious Gaming
*Video Editing (esp. HD/2k/4k/8k, 3D, multicam, uncompressed)
*3D modeling/rendering animation
*Physical simulations
*DAW/Multitrack audio editing/mixing/synthesis
*Financial & project mgmt number crunching (though this one can more easily make use of the cloud as a back end)
*Database management servers

Those are ALL requiring multiple orders of magnitude in digital horsepower compared to mobile offerings.
It will take some time before there is anything to challenge their domination.

Plus, there is nothing in these pundit pronouncements that gives any consideration to the very possible fact that the digital appliance PIE is expanding, so even if a particular piece of the pie is smaller than some other, it might still be healthy/growing.

Witness: at home 8 years ago, I had (in our household) 1 desktop PC and 2 laptop PCs and 4 non-smart phones and 1 CRT TV. Now, I have 2 desktop PCs, 2 mini PCs, 1 server PC, 1 htpc, 2 laptops, 3 tablets, 4 smart phones, and 2 Smart LED 3DTVs. And a partridge in a pear tree. And a hard boiled egg!

Scott

[TreeTops]

Quickbooks is another program that doesn't run well on a tablet. The Android version is crippled. Maybe using the MS Surface Pro would work but a quick Google search doesn't turn up anyone that is happy using it there either.

[Constant Gardener]

PCs make much better zombies for those nefarious botnets. Tablets are too limiting.

[SameSelf]

I will attribute some weight to these pronouncements when tablets/phones can...All those features are currently enjoyed by...some laptop PCs.

Sounds like you answered you own question.

Business is another world altogether. The idea of using CURRENT, or NEAR FUTURE tablets/phones as a replacement for business/workstation/server PCs is a joke!

Good point. I purposely avoided wading into the workstation space for brevity. But since you bring it up I guess I need to say a few words.

What I see happening is that mobile devices, and let me be clear here, when I say mobile I mean smartphones, tablets, laptops, ultrabooks and any device that doesn't look like the boxy desktop. But I digress. What I see happening is that mobile devices will get more powerful e.g. the iPad Pro going on sale tomorrow and starting at $799. Another example is the Microsoft Surface Pro series. Mobile offers more margin for companies than the desktop. Mobile gets more of the capital for R&D spending. Power users will get served by the workstation market, and the humble desktop will get squeezed and begin to look like some utilitarian device akin to a toaster that few companies will fully support.

Witness: at home 8 years ago, I had (in our household) 1 desktop PC and 2 laptop PCs and 4 non-smart phones and 1 CRT TV. Now, I have 2 desktop PCs, 2 mini PCs, 1 server PC, 1 htpc, 2 laptops, 3 tablets, 4 smart phones, and 2 Smart LED 3DTVs. And a partridge in a pear tree. And a hard boiled egg!

Clever and useful for a good laugh, but I am not sure why how many desktop PCs and mobile devices you have at your disposal is even relevant. Are you saying that you have some buying power and companies will always be at your service if you need the latest and greatest tech for your PC that the latest mobile devices are sporting in five or ten years time?

Quickbooks is another program that doesn't run well on a tablet. The Android version is crippled. Maybe using the MS Surface Pro would work but a quick Google search doesn't turn up anyone that is happy using it there either.

Are you saying that Quickbooks doesn't work on a laptop?

[SameSelf]

PCs make much better zombies for those nefarious botnets. Tablets are too limiting.

Ever try a laptop or ultrabook?

[TreeTops]

"Are you saying that Quickbooks doesn't work on a laptop? "

Sameself...I mentioned tablets. Quickbooks work just fine on my laptop.

[mail2tom]

They are also probably thinking of how tablets are a "captive audience" for browser and application advertisements, but not so much for the PC. So, do away with the PC and push more advertisements on users.

[johns0]

PC will never die even though I'm sending this through my 9 inch android tablet.

[SameSelf]

PC will never die even though I'm sending this through my 9 inch android tablet.

Pedantry is the order of the day here. The PC will likely never die in the strictest sense, but it will be outpaced by mobile (e.g. pcie ssd), get the lionshare of R&D, and eventually become a dated piece of tech you won't want to spend your money on.

IOW, Cook's comments are less about prognosticating the future and more about analyzing market trends and announcing where Apple sees the future and subsequently where to invest. The humble desktop getting the cold shoulder will not be good, mark my words.

[El Heggunte]

The PC will...... eventually become a dated piece of tech you won't want to spend your money on.

Sadly my crystal-ball is not as excellent as yours

Regarding things that are "dated" and should be replaced A.S.A.P., I would name not the PC itself, but nearly-everything on which current software /firmware is based: ASCII, ANSI, QWERTY keyboards, English-based programming languages, and the so-called 'UNIX-philosophy'.

[lingyi]

Cook: We can't make any headway in the desktop and laptop market.

Marketing: Let's declare that the future are IPads to take the focus off our poor performance in those markets.

Cook: Brilliant!

[usually_quiet]

For sure desktops and even laptops account for a smaller percentage of the market, but as Cornucopia said, the market is more diverse than it once was.

Lots of businesses issue laptops, smartphones, or tablets to only a percentage of their workers (the ones who travel or often work from home) because they are expensive semi-disposable items. They don't have the lifespan of a desktop or thin client and are harder to repair. Plus, as was already explained, some work requires more computing power and external connections than mobile devices can provide.

For home use, most people only need something that will allow them to use social media, send and receive email, Skype, surf the web, do their taxes online, and consume media. A tablet or smart phone works for that. However, as already mentioned, laptops and tablets are not the ideal platform for some hobbies.

...and it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development that all important computer-related technological innovation in the future will happen with mobile devices. The technological innovations for mobile computing are all related to extending the length of time the device can run on its batteries, reducing heat, and creating thinner/smaller/lighter form-factors, not pure performance increases.

[SameSelf]

Regarding things that are "dated" and should be replaced A.S.A.P., I would name not the PC itself, but nearly-everything on which current software /firmware is based: ASCII, ANSI, QWERTY keyboards, English-based programming languages, and the so-called 'UNIX-philosophy'.

I will take your line of reasoning even further. Here in the US, there are 2 million AOL dial-up subscribers still paying US$20 per month to watch a webpage take ten minutes to load. How's that for proof that the PC will never die? But, the problem with your logic is that it is a straw man. The real question is: what does an AOL dial-up account offer those users in 2015 over what it offered them in 1995? Answer: Nothing. Dial-up AOL is like a time capsule or a snapshot from a bygone era for 320 million Americans.

The desktop PC is suffering the same fate. Progress is slowing and this is key: slowing relative to mobile. I outlined two concrete examples explaining how mobile is now driving the technology in the desktop. The slowing will accelerate until desktop PCs become frozen in time, like dial-up AOL. The only people buying desktops in 2030 will be those that need to replace their 2020 era machine. But that 2030 box won't be marginally any different than the 10-year-old box being replaced.

If you want horsepower beyond what can be found in 2030's ubiquitous computing device, my guess is it will be a workstation. But a workstation is not a desktop both in the components under the hood and in the users manufacturers target. Thus, I am purposely separating the two in this analysis.

...and it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development

Care to elaborate on the reasons why you think it is "pretty silly"? Do you see opposite trends to be bullish? What are they? To be precise, my pcie ssd example is less about ssd development and more about SATA development. The investment effort in a successor to SATA III failed. It is that simple. I wouldn't dare call this single event a trend. But then, Intel delayed desktop sku's for Broadwell to the point that observers thought they would skip a desktop refresh entirely. Additionally, I touched on motherboard and chipset development. But, I haven't touched on OS development (don't get me started on that one) or the decline in desktop sales. So, I disagree with your assessment that I am making a "pretty silly" extrapolation. However, I do feel I have made a solid trend analysis. Now, could these trends reverse? Sure. But it would take a tectonic shift in a lot of downtrend trends to save the desktop at this point.

[usually_quiet]

...and it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development

Care to elaborate on the reasons why you think it is "pretty silly"? Do you see opposite trends to be bullish? What are they? To be precise, my pcie ssd example is less about ssd development and more about SATA development. The investment effort in a successor to SATA III failed. It is that simple. I wouldn't dare call this single event a trend. But then, Intel delayed desktop sku's for Broadwell to the point that observers thought they would skip a desktop refresh entirely. Additionally, I touched on motherboard and chipset development. But, I haven't touched on OS development (don't get me started on that one) or the decline in desktop sales. So, I disagree with your assessment that I am making a "pretty silly" extrapolation. However, I do feel I have made a solid trend analysis. Now, could these trends reverse? Sure. But it would take a tectonic shift in a lot of downtrend trends to save the desktop at this point.

Learn to read rather than skim and try quoting others in context for a change.

This is what I actually wrote:

For sure desktops and even laptops account for a smaller percentage of the market, but as Cornucopia said, the market is more diverse than it once was.

Lots of businesses issue laptops, smartphones, or tablets to only a percentage of their workers (the ones who travel or often work from home) because they are expensive semi-disposable items. They don't have the lifespan of a desktop or thin client and are harder to repair. Plus, as was already explained, some work requires more computing power and external connections than mobile devices can provide.

For home use, most people only need something that will allow them to use social media, send and receive email, Skype, surf the web, do their taxes online, and consume media. A tablet or smart phone works for that. However, as already mentioned, laptops and tablets are not the ideal platform for some hobbies.

...and it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development that all important computer-related technological innovation in the future will happen with mobile devices. The technological innovations for mobile computing are all related to extending the length of time the device can run on its batteries, reducing heat, and creating thinner/smaller/lighter form-factors, not pure performance increases.

First, I never said the desktop would regain its dominance in the marketplace. I said the opposite. ...but the desktop will certainly have a place in the market since it will remain the only good choice for certain applications for a very long time.

As for technological innovation... If you believe that the the most powerful CPUs and GPUS will soon be in tablets or laptops rather than in desktop computers, you must have failed to notice how much heat they produce

[Cornucopia]

Is the train the major mode of transportation in the country? No (though this cannot be said of other countries).
Is it VITAL and profitable and continuing in R&D? Heck Yes.

Scott

[pandy]

Poorly educated but with high ambition people like Cook are nightmare in modern corp world.

[SameSelf]

Learn to read rather than skim and try quoting others in context for a change.

If you are not able to more articulately defend your "it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development" accusation that's fine. But, I think I have shown from the initial post and from my response to your accusation that it is not a "pretty silly extrapolation", and in fact, it is a solid trend analysis. It is you who is lacking reading comprehension: I addressed how battery power is driving the mobile space and the desktop space in my initial post, yet you throw it back at me like I am oblivious to this.

But since you asked me and followed this with an even stranger accusation, I will answer. No, I do not believe desktop CPUs or GPUs will find their way into tablets or laptops. But this is not about shoe-horning desktop architecture into mobile devices. This is about how consumer demand has swung to mobile and along with that, the capital for R&D is leaving the desktop behind. I say all this without even pointing out how the desktop market is broken.

Suffice it to say (I have said it already, but it bears repeating) the future for desktops is not bright. The use case for desktops is actually quite small these days. And unfortunately, the market needs to be much bigger to support the development that is needed to bring desktops into the next decade. Relying on server/workstation architecture or mobile architecture to advance desktop technology will spell the end for the desktop.

[lordsmurf]

Apple are just media whores.
And this is just more usual nonsense hyperbole on their part.

[usually_quiet]

Learn to read rather than skim and try quoting others in context for a change.

If you are not able to more articulately defend your "it is pretty silly to extrapolate from SSD development" accusation that's fine. But, I think I have shown from the initial post and from my response to your accusation that it is not a "pretty silly extrapolation", and in fact, it is a solid trend analysis. It is you who is lacking reading comprehension: I addressed how battery power is driving the mobile space and the desktop space in my initial post, yet you throw it back at me like I am oblivious to this.

But since you asked me and followed this with an even stranger accusation, I will answer. No, I do not believe desktop CPUs or GPUs will find their way into tablets or laptops. But this is not about shoe-horning desktop architecture into mobile devices. This is about how consumer demand has swung to mobile and along with that, the capital for R&D is leaving the desktop behind. I say all this without even pointing out how the desktop market
Suffice it to say (I have said it already, but it bears repeating) the future for desktops is not bright. The use case for desktops is actually quite small these days. And unfortunately, the market needs to be much bigger to support the development that is needed to bring desktops into the next decade. Relying on server/workstation architecture or mobile architecture to advance desktop technology will spell the end for the desktop.

Thanks for once again proving my point that you don't bother to read what other people write, even when it is brief enough to be easily read.

If you think that what the masses buy dictates all R&D decisions you haven't been paying attention. This is not a one-size-fits-all world The great diversity of available computing devices points to that.

...and since the desktop is dead, I guess you'll be forgetting about that Skylake-E Windows 10 system video encoding system you were planning to build next year, and will instead follow the trend to buy a tablet or laptop. After all I wouldn't expect someone like you to be caught dead with a computer that is so technologically unsophisticated and behind the times.

[_Al_]

It all depends on how or where development is going, technologies, chips, its power and heating problems etc.,

This guy knows something what it is going to be in 20 years? If not, he is telling what we should buy, understand one small cramped device where you have to get new one if something brakes or they tell you OS is not safe anymore, and with only possibility to hook some other device that passes their interest.

I do not believe the World goes "disposable cramped devices" after 20 years. There is no resources for all of them. But , unfortunately, my guess it is going to be as that guy says, but not because of free choice but because you have to get whatever device to somehow even exist in mainstream, not going off the grid. Kids today do homework on Google drive for example, that's a start ....

[SameSelf]

Thanks for once again proving my point that you don't bother to read what other people write, even when it is brief enough to be easily read.

If you think that what the masses buy dictates all R&D decisions you haven't been paying attention. This is not a one-size-fits-all world The great diversity of available computing devices points to that.

...and since the desktop is dead, I guess you'll be forgetting about that Skylake-E Windows 10 system video encoding system you were planning to build next year, and will instead follow the trend to buy a tablet or laptop. After all I wouldn't expect someone like you to be caught dead with a computer that is so technologically unsophisticated and behind the times.

So in your world, if I don't automatically agree with everything you say, I lack basic reading skills. Whatevs. Also, your attempt to high jack the discussion to make this about me is so sophomoric.

[usually_quiet]

Thanks for once again proving my point that you don't bother to read what other people write, even when it is brief enough to be easily read.

If you think that what the masses buy dictates all R&D decisions you haven't been paying attention. This is not a one-size-fits-all world The great diversity of available computing devices points to that.

...and since the desktop is dead, I guess you'll be forgetting about that Skylake-E Windows 10 system video encoding system you were planning to build next year, and will instead follow the trend to buy a tablet or laptop. After all I wouldn't expect someone like you to be caught dead with a computer that is so technologically unsophisticated and behind the times.

So in your world, if I don't automatically agree with everything you say, I lack basic reading skills. Whatevs. Also, your attempt to high jack the discussion to make this about me is so sophomoric.

My big mistake was replying to this flame-war-bait topic in the first place. From now on I'll just ignore anything that you write.

[johns0]

Please stick to the subject guys or I'll close the thread.

[SameSelf]

Please stick to the subject guys or I'll close the thread.

Well said. Thank you.

[SameSelf]

FWIW, this benchmark is why my next build will be an Extreme, a 1.5x increase Haswell vs Skylake. The really sad part is how little benefit you get from the regular desktop offerings which, in my mind, just reinforces why I think the market is bifurcating because Extreme versions are really just cheap Xeons. The frustrating part is Broadwell-E has been delayed to March now, which likely pushes Skylake-E to 2017.

[sum_guy]

i'll simply say the PC is so dead that i'm down to 5 of them. The tablet is collecting dust in a corner, which reminds me I should probably recharge it so I can click some "Like" buttons on Facebook.