There are many news/opinions that predict against BluRay/HD success. That's is rather rare on a web sites that are roamed by mostly techies. Maybe a simple benefits/cost comparison is need. This is my mental math that compare DVD vs BluRay/HD, for the 400% worth of pixels.
DVD players cost $100.00 or less, movies cost about $14.95, Burner cost $69.00, DVDR cost $0.50. Most of us have a TV suitable to watch DVD.
BluRay/HD players cost $999.00, Bluray with PS3 costs $499.00, Movies cost $29.00, Burner $999.00, BluRay/HD-R $ ?.00. A new TV is most likely to see the extra pixels.
Except the movie which is priced by the studio, the rest of cost figure are much higher than previous major next-gen products introduction. It kind of imply the makers are not ready to mass produce the player/burner/recorder in the main stream volume, to introduce them at a main stream prices..
Both Sony and Toshiba need some visionary to get real !
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I'd say more realistic numbers are DVD players in the $35-75 range, and when you look at discs on sale (especially tv show box sets), you're pegged in at about $5-10 per DVD. Even DVD recorders are now in the $90-175 range, and computer DVD burners are in the $40-60 range.
But beyond money, take a look at consumer confidence in the product itself. Take a DVD set like MARRIED WITH CHILDREN or LEAVE IT TO BEAVER. The shows are compressed to such a crappy quality that homemade VHS recordings off TVLAND or FX look better. Why should we believe that these so-called "better quality" resources will even be used? Nay, it's more likely that the new technology will be frittered away with more compression and at a quality gain of zero.Want my help? Ask here! (not via PM!)
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Its much too early to be applying a logical cost/benefit analysis to this whole thing. Nobody knows how much the public is willing to spend for this stuff, so they start high. Then they drift the prices down until either 1 - the public starts bying and they make money or 2- they said, what the hell this ain't worth it. Lets move on to the next technological advance. How about 3D movies ?...
But lets have a little patience and let this play out. Something good may become of it.
After all, the hard drive grew up very well....Maybe this will too. -
Well don't forget hd-dvd players are half the price of bluray. And ps3 will be the cheapest available bluray player when it hits the stores.
Me?? I'm happy with dvd until I buy a hdtv set. Until then dvd mpeg 2 is just fine.Donatello - The Shredder? Michelangelo - Maybe all that hardware is for making coleslaw?
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