Remind Me: Just HOW did Toshiba manage to blow it ?

[Seeker47]

The situation du jour, apparently:
http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BLU_RAY_SALES?SITE=NMALJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

I had no real plans to go hi-def on DVDs anyway -- not for quite awhile, certainly -- so I was barely paying much attention, during the format war of the last couple years. So, I'm hoping someone might catch me up with a quick synopsis. Toshiba is / was a major player, they had put together a consortium with others, they had some technical advantages (? -- absence of some Sony-crippled functionality {?}, and none of this readily outdated "Profiles" bullshit), maybe an edge in released titles for awhile, and some real price advantages. So, how did they manage to **** up so badly, and lose this war ? Was it not really on the merits, but more in the way of behind-the-scenes skulduggery ? (Since we're talking Sony and the movie studios here, that is a very easy thing to suppose.) Any echoes of earlier, badly mishandled wars involving formats and market positions, like Betamax vs. VHS, or Apple's historic flubs against the early PCs ?

[bendixG15]

This has been beat to death, not just once but over and over.
Personally, I'm I'm done, no more looking back.

But there will be some who will "fill you in" from where ever you have been.

[SatStorm]

If you search the "News" section of this forum from 3 months ago, you can read all the infos you need to catch up.

[JohnnyMalaria]

That article could have been written 25 years ago with the advent of the CD player - they were very expensive and CDs were few and far between.

Toshiba is a huge conglomerate and this loss can be readily offset by other new technologies and revenue from its other industrial sectors such as construction equipment and nuclear power.

[yoda313]

To simplify it Sony owned enough movie studios to force them to use bluray. The few that pushed for HDDVD were too little too late. Sony stacked the decks against HDDVD and never had a chance. I have both and they are essentially identical in terms of quality in my opinion. Its just that HDDVD didn't have enough backers.

[offline]

not news - moving

[thecoalman]

I'll take a wild guess because the BR discs still had a working protection scheme at the time was main reason for the studios jumping ship. But thats speculation on my part. Haven't checked in a while but last I looked BR discs aren't fairing well at the moment either. :P

[rallynavvie]

I just read that same article in my local rag, too.

Along the same lines as what johnny said this article could have been written about cassette tape, VHS, Beta, CD, LD, and DVD. Any time a new tech comes into play there are going to be people who resist. The new tech is expensive at first. It gets cheaper as more companies adopt it and produce items for it. Eventually the price stabilizes and shortly afterwards we're looking at a newer tech. I mean really the same could be said about anything new, right?

The HD video thing is going to directly relate to HDTVs sold. Obviously all those people who still have CRT televisions (of which there are still a LOT) aren't going to want to adopt an HD format that they won't be able to utilize. So in the case of BRD the cost of HDTVs is also a factor.

The BRD vs HD-DVD thing is over and we need to move on. It's for the better that there is only one format because it means we don't need expensive dual-purpose players and have to buy into the whole "war". Eventually the costs will come down. Until then if you don't like it then stick to DVD. It really is as simple as that.

[lordsmurf]

Sony bribed with lots of $$$$$$$$$$$$$.

Sony has ownership/influence with studios.

Sony bamboozled copyright whores like Time Warner and Disney with at-the-time "unbroken" copy protection.

1-2-3 -- Out.

Toshiba got smart, and has moved to development of solid-state tech for video application. That's where the future is anyway, not fragile plastic platters that barf at the smallest scratch. We're all tired of CDs and DVDs. Nobody asked for an extension of CD-DVD anyway.

[Seeker47]

It's for the better that there is only one format because it means we don't need expensive dual-purpose players and have to buy into the whole "war" .

Except that monopolies tend not to be much good for the consumer. But then, I can't think of an example where more than one competing format remained viable in the market for any length of time beyond what we saw with the videotape cassettes, or here.

Toshiba got smart, and has moved to development of solid-state tech for video application. That's where the future is anyway, not fragile plastic platters that barf at the smallest scratch. We're all tired of CDs and DVDs. Nobody asked for an extension of CD-DVD anyway.

If you're referring to movies etc. distributed on large flash-memory (?), I doubt we'll see that in the next 5 years, probably not in the next 10. And what leads you to think that will be any less fragile than these plastic platters ? In the meantime, I noticed over on AfterDawn a short, speculative announcement of some impending surprise -- also an extension to DVD, described as the "Blu-Ray Killer" -- that Toshiba has in the works, supposedly about 6 months away. Could this be the revenge of Toshiba ? Some ace up their sleeve ? Or just some rumor / vapor / BS ?

I like your summary of events, though. Succinct, and I suspect you nailed it exactly.

[thecoalman]

And what leads you to think that will be any less fragile than these plastic platters ? .

Because a scratch which is very easy to get on a very large flat surface doesn't make them unplayable.

[rallynavvie]

Actually I got a really good scratch (or series of them in fact) on my BRD copy of Full Metal Jacket and it still plays perfect. I thought for sure it was toast. Had it been a DVD I doubt it would have played. Wasn't there something said that the BRD discs are a little more resistant to scratching or that the hardware was a little more robust than DVD?

[SatStorm]

HD is the future. Not BluRay. Let separate those two things.

H264 is also the future. Not BluRay.

Some manage to make us believe that HD = BD. Well, no, HD is not BD. Bad for them, good for us.

[lordsmurf]

If you're referring to movies etc. distributed on large flash-memory (?), I doubt we'll see that in the next 5 years, probably not in the next 10. And what leads you to think that will be any less fragile than these plastic platters ?

I shoot 8GB and 16GB CompactFlash cards. You can get them up to 32GB, and 64GB are soon to come. The 16GB cards sell for about $50 blank, for the cheap ones. Ramp up production on these, and you'll easily get them down in price. Right now they're pretty much camera-only storage.

I can drop kick a Compact Flash -- wash in with the laundry -- even accidentally back over it with the car -- and it's fine. A disc would be up shit creek just by sneezing on it, or dropping it 6" off the ground. The thin blue laser is easily refracted from the slightest smudge or scratch. People are tired of this crap, just like they grew tired of VCRs "eating" tapes.

A CF card is about 1" by 1" and just a few mm thick. It's way smaller than a disc, and far more durable.

If Hollywood wants a "next generation" format, then I suggest they quit screwing around, and get on with the complete upgrade. We want something durable (no more discs), with better framerates, and better compression schemes (no more blocks!). You can stick a lot of H.264 with good bitrate on a good CF card.

It'll happen. Keep watching.

[SquirrelDip]

And the cards are reusable - so we won't see landfill sites filling up with them.

[Seeker47]

If you're referring to movies etc. distributed on large flash-memory (?), I doubt we'll see that in the next 5 years, probably not in the next 10. And what leads you to think that will be any less fragile than these plastic platters ?

I shoot 8GB and 16GB CompactFlash cards. You can get them up to 32GB, and 64GB are soon to come. The 16GB cards sell for about $50 blank, for the cheap ones. Ramp up production on these, and you'll easily get them down in price. Right now they're pretty much camera-only storage.

I said: "I can't think of an example where more than one competing format remained viable in the market for any length of time beyond what we saw with the videotape cassettes, or here."
You reminded me of one exception: digital camera flash memory. That's why we have those 8-in-one readers. But I think CF (which I also use) may be going, going, soon to be gone . . . knocked off by SD ?

I can drop kick a Compact Flash -- wash in with the laundry -- even accidentally back over it with the car -- and it's fine. A disc would be up shit creek just by sneezing on it, or dropping it 6" off the ground. The thin blue laser is easily refracted from the slightest smudge or scratch. People are tired of this crap, just like they grew tired of VCRs "eating" tapes.

A CF card is about 1" by 1" and just a few mm thick. It's way smaller than a disc, and far more durable.

If Hollywood wants a "next generation" format, then I suggest they quit screwing around, and get on with the complete upgrade. We want something durable (no more discs), with better framerates, and better compression schemes (no more blocks!). You can stick a lot of H.264 with good bitrate on a good CF card.
.

What makes you think they want durable, in the first place ? These are essentially the same folks who wanted to re-sell us the same material over and over again: on LP, cassette, CD, videocassette, LV, then DVD.

Will these cards be fast enough for distributing films on them, random access, and chapterable etc. ? And there are other sources of damage -- a good static electricity zap, for instance. Or whatever leads to reports like these:

http://forums.cnet.com/5208-10149_102-0.html?forumID=7&threadID=294293&messageID=27697...l.e497#2769754

(Wait, lemme guess: your disdain for CNET as a source is only marginally behind your regard for PC World. . . . ?)

In any case, can you see lining these up on the shelf, for easy reference and retrieval, the way you now do with DVDs ? Er, uh, lost a couple behind the couch cushions, did we ? (Netflix will not be pleased.)

I'm joking with you a bit here, but just trying to envision how this might work. Something else will come along. It always does.