Wal-Mart has ordered 2 MILLION HD DVD players.

[Eug]

Article in Chinese

Basically it's a deal between TDK, Great Wall, Fu Yuan, and Wal-Mart, to produce 2 million blue-laser HD DVD players. (These aren't just upscaling DVD players.)

I'm not sure of the price, but it's either $150 or $50 per player cost to Wal-Mart.

[ViRaL1]

In English from Engadget...

http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/

[jman98]

Unfortunately, the engadget article has a brief followup that says that there was a bad translation from Chinese and the original Chinese article is talking about BluRay. It appears that the original article used the term "BluRay HD-DVD" so it may just mean BluRay because the writer wasn't up enough on the technology to realize that also saying HD-DVD would lead to confusion or some kind of combo player, but that sounds awful cheap for a combo. Stay tuned.

[Eug]

The engadget article references this Akihabara article:

http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-13678-2+millions+of+Blu-Ray+players+for+Walmart.html

However, that article has retracted the statement that they are Blu-ray players, although they haven't fully confirmed they are HD DVD players either.

P.S. Literally translated, the original article said "blue light" HD DVD. That could very well just mean blue laser... or it could mean Blu-ray? What is the actual translation of "Blu-ray"?

[Eug]

According to these AVS posts, which are supposedly quoting insider sources:

1) It's definitely HD DVD.
2) TDK is supplying the laser assembly.
3) Fuh Yuan is making the drive.
4) BroadCom is supplying the System-On-Chip.
5) Mass production begins in August, with initial shipments in 2007.

[ViRaL1]

Not that I've found anything concrete, but the only HD involvement I've seen from TDK has been on the Blu-Ray side. Still, I guess we'll have to wait and see. Could Wal-Marx be the kingmaker? Since they're offering an ever greater range of HD sets across multiple markets, this could turn out to be the nail in the HD-DVD coffin with a bottom-up approach as opposed to leaving the decision up to the tech elite. 2 million players in either camp would do a lot toward ensuring that support for new releases on that media will have a market. I already have a PS3, so at the moment I'm pulling for BD, but if HD wins, I won't be heartbroken and I'll fall in line unless something else promising is right on its heels.

EDIT: I just noticed that TDK is a founding member of the Blu-Ray Disc Association. That doesn't make it definite, but I'd be more willing to wager knowing that.

Also, contrary to the Engadget article, Wally World is already carrying an HD-DVD player for $349, so the price difference isn't huge.

[AlecWest]

Lessee. The 27" standard def TV I'm watching now cost me roughly $179.00 ... and my last 2 DVD players cost me less than $50 each. And I'm supposed to think of a $299 (say $300) video player as being cheap???

As Homey the Clown once said, "I don't think so." :P

[ViRaL1]

Lessee. The 27" standard def TV I'm watching now cost me roughly $179.00 ... and my last 2 DVD players cost me less than $50 each. And I'm supposed to think of a $299 (say $300) video player as being cheap???

As Homey the Clown once said, "I don't think so." :P

Cheap is relative. Last year I bought a brand new television WITH a built in radio for $5...it's black and white and 5", but it's a standard definition TV nonetheless. You paid over 35 times more for a television that's just over 5 times the diagonal screen size (granted it's color). Would you call $179 exorbitant? We're talking about apples and oranges; and that's not to say that the same level of support is there for HD as there is for SD, but really it's still new technology. Does your SD set have a digital tuner, or will it have to be replaced (or a new tuner purchased) when the switch from analog to digital comes? Not to say that you actually paid $50 (you said less than), but new DVD players can be had for $30 without rebates and sometimes even $20 if you search hard enough. I'm sure you've been a consumer long enough (and I'd bet an electronics consumer) to know that there is no $50 without $300 in this game. There was a time not so long ago that Wal-Marx customers would have knocked each other down on Black Friday for a $300 standard definition DVD players because that was a good bit cheaper than anyone else. But hey, you could get a VCR for MUCH less than $300, so how is THAT cheap?

[Eug]

This player has been confirmed by a third party retailer.

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

[somebodeez]

Lessee. The 27" standard def TV I'm watching now cost me roughly $179.00 ... and my last 2 DVD players cost me less than $50 each. And I'm supposed to think of a $299 (say $300) video player as being cheap???

As Homey the Clown once said, "I don't think so." :P

I don't think $300 is cheap for a video player either.
I think I'll just sit back and wait for the prices to drop further. Maybe by then, I'll have an HDTV and maybe there will be some HD titles that I actually want too :P

While I'm waiting, I plan to check in here from time to time to see what my fellow videohelpers have to say about the models that they purchase. (what's good/what's bad/any weird issues ect) and continue to enjoy my standard def TVs and DVD players. (which are functioning just fine ATM)

[AlecWest]

Lessee. The 27" standard def TV I'm watching now cost me roughly $179.00 ... and my last 2 DVD players cost me less than $50 each. And I'm supposed to think of a $299 (say $300) video player as being cheap???

As Homey the Clown once said, "I don't think so." :P

Cheap is relative.

The point is, to someone who right now can afford to spend $50 on a DVD player, $300 is not cheap ... regardless of the bells and whistles the $300 player may have. The first VCR I bought was near featureless and cost $700 ... with blank VHS tapes costing, at the time, $20. The difference between VCRs and HD-DVD or BluRay players is that VCRs, when they came out, were a "new" technology ... the first time anyone could record video in their homes for immediate playback and begin to amass a collection of full length motion pictures to watch. HD-DVD and BluRay players are not a new technology ... they're merely an improvement to an "existing" technology (the DVD player).

In short, appealing to consumers to spend money on a "new" technology is a lot easier than appealing to consumers to spend money on an "improved" technology ... when the consumer can already do something similar with what they already have. That's why stereo systems sold well, regardless of price, when the public was first able to buy them ... and why quadraphonic stereo systems in the 1970s fell flat on their faces because the public was satisfied with what they already had. That is the real apples to oranges comparison ... new vs. improved.

BTW...

Does your SD set have a digital tuner, or will it have to be replaced (or a new tuner purchased) when the switch from analog to digital comes?

As we speak, a UPS package from Comcast is winging its way to me. Inside is a digital box that will feed my TV the analog signal it craves. Cost for the first year? $0. Afterward, 1st box is only $4 a month. Or, in other terms, I'd have to save 45 months of box payments up to buy the TV I currently own ... which would still be cheaper than its digital equivalent.

The question consumers have to ask themselves is a simple and personal one - namely, is upgrading to this improved technology worth it ... or am I satisfied with what I already have?

P.S. Yes, it's true. You can now buy a lot of DVD players that cost only $30. But at the time I bought my $49.95 Yamakawa DVD275, you couldn't find a $30 DVD player that could play any DVD regardless of region code and format (NTSC/PAL). It's all relative.

One other thing, too. Right now, Sony is producing DVDs that won't even play on their own DVD players because of copy protection snafus. The DRM planned for HD is even more sophisticated than it is now. So, consumers have to ask themselves, "If they can't even do things correctly in a cheap SD world, should I invest more money in the HD world ... knowing these same people will be stewards of the technology?"

[Eug]

I also consider $299 somewhat high, especially for mass adoption. However, at $199, it's definitely a strong consideration for a lot of people, and there is a strong likelihood this player will be $199 on sale.

Remember, many upconverting DVD players still go for $129. For $70 more you get both a DVD player and HD DVD. That's a pretty good deal.

That assumes it's actually a reasonable machine though. We all know that many Chinese DVD players suck, so it's quite possible initial Chinese HD DVD players will also suck. OTOH, if it is based on that Microsoft-Broadcom HD DVD reference design, then it might be a reasonable player.

"One of the critical steps in bringing HD DVD to the mass market is driving down the price of the units while maintaining flawless quality," said Peter Besen, vice president, Consumer Electronics, Broadband Communications Group, from Broadcom. "Our BCM7440 chipset brings multiple processors, dual decoders and dedicated graphics engines to the table. Combined with the power of Windows CE 6.0, we're able to offer a complete reference design that dramatically reduces development time for our manufacturing partners." The Microsoft and Broadcom platform also ensures a high level of compliance with the HD DVD specification and compatibility with other HD DVD platforms, including the Xbox 360™ platform. With fully functional HDi™ interactivity and navigation software, and support for all mandatory HD DVD codecs including the industry-leading VC-1 codec, the hardware and software platform meets the requirements for the playback of advanced HD DVD interactive content already in production by leading Hollywood studios. Through the support of Lite-On, HD DVD will benefit from one of the most experienced systems integrators backing high volume consumer electronics manufacturers that offer customized OEM solutions. Combined with Jiangkui's experience as one of the largest high volume Chinese DVD manufacturers, the Microsoft and Broadcom platform is already poised to significantly impact the HD DVD landscape in 2007.

[samijubal]

I paid $300 for my first DVD player that basically just played DVDs, no zoom, no PQ settings, about all it had was markers. You get a lot more for $300 now than I did in 98, especially when considering the difference in 98 and 07 dollars.

[AlecWest]

I paid $300 for my first DVD player that basically just played DVDs, no zoom, no PQ settings, about all it had was markers. You get a lot more for $300 now than I did in 98, especially when considering the difference in 98 and 07 dollars.

Yup. Like my $700 VCR, a lot of people paid good money to get the best new technology on the block. But, it isn't just cheap HD video players that matter. A HD video player is designed to play on a HD television ... which is still quite difficult to purchase by those in the middle-class or poorer. But in getting a HD television, people expect HD programming to be available ... and so far, HD offerings on cable/satellite are still niche offerings. Add to that equation a format war in HD video players and you have a recipe for turning off most middle-class consumers who, in the end, will drive the market (or abandon it).

My ex-wife worked for Matsushita-Kotobuki. For about a year, they manufactured nothing but HD equipment under several brand names. Then, they closed their plant and laid everyone off because retailers were returning unsold HD equipment en masse. The plant was not relocated offshore, either, it just closed permanently. Every time I hear all the hype about how HD is going to be the wave of the future, I'm reminded of how I heard the same hype about quadraphonic stereo in the 70s ... and reminded of the look on my ex's face when she told me she'd been laid off from MK. And, I'm not so sure this wave of the future will do anything but crash on the shore ... leaving in its wake, a niche of devotees who hold out hope for the future.

Walmart may have ordered these units. But I suspect their purchase agreement allows for a return policy on unsold equipment. So Walmart's risk here is certainly a marginal one.

[Eug]

Many people already have HD TVs.

However, many have not purchased HD players because:

1) They simply don't care about HD discs.
2) The players are too expensive.
3) We're in the middle of a war.
4) The discs are not widely available, and are expensive.

So, there are a lot of issues holding people back from buying these things. However, this Wal-Mart deal at least addresses #2, and #4 is slowly being corrected as time goes on.

[SingSing]

Is Video Rental a factor too ?
Do Netflix or Blobkbuster or Hollywood rent HD or BD ?

[ViRaL1]

I heard that blockbuster does, but I haven't been able to confirm.

Looks like Netflix has both...

http://www.netflix.com/BrowseSelection?sgid=2444&hnjr=3

http://www.netflix.com/BrowseSelection?sgid=2442&hnjr=3

[Eug]

Is Video Rental a factor too ?
Do Netflix or Blobkbuster or Hollywood rent HD or BD ?

They both do.

However, as I understand it, sometimes Netflix hi-def discs are a little hard to come by, and only a few Blockbusters rent them.

There's a Blockbuster near my house and near my workplace. The former doesn't have HD DVD or Blu-ray, but the latter has both, although only a limited selection.

[samijubal]

BB online rents HD discs, as does Netflix. I don't hardly ever watch HD programming on my HDTV. I mainly got it for the upconversion. My TV upconverts everything, so SD-DVDs look far better than they do on an SDTV.

[ViRaL1]

Has anyone been able to comfirm which format these players will be yet?

[Eug]

The Chinese readers confirm it's HD DVD according to article. One poster claims his inside sources claim it's HD DVD. I have also conversed with a large online retailer, and he also claims his sources confirm it's HD DVD.

Furthermore, the article itself specifically states that one advantage of "blue light HD DVD" is that its discs can be replicated on existing DVD stamping lines. It should be noted that this is only possible with HD DVD. Blu-ray requires separate stamping lines.

And finally, this is in line with press releases from Microsoft and Broadcom in Jan. 2007. They said that they had created a complete reference HD DVD design that would make it easy and cheap for Chinese players to hit the market in 2007.

There should be little doubt that this is HD DVD. The real question is whether or not they will be able to execute this plan cleanly. Obviously, this HD DVD deal means little if they run into serious production issues or cost overruns or whatever, and can't get product out in a timely fashion and at a reasonable price.

[robertazimmerman]

[quote="ViRaL1"]

Lessee. The 27" standard def TV I'm watching now cost me roughly $179.00 ... and my last 2 DVD players cost me less than $50 each. And I'm supposed to think of a $299 (say $300) video player as being cheap???

As Homey the Clown once said, "I don't think so." :P

You get what you pay for. Someone who buys a $179 TV isn't about to buy a hi-def player. It would be a complete waste of time and money.

R

[oldandinthe way]

According the figures quoted in the Wall Street Journal, one third of the HDTV owners do not have HD service - over the air, cable or satellite.

Either they bought their TV for the "big screen" or are quite content with up conversion built into their sets.

I suggest that the gap between a $30 DVDplayer and a HD-DVD player will have to narrow a great deal more before we'll see mass-adoption.

To date the only significant adoption of an HD format is PS3 owners. And the only hot selling BluRay disks are those which appeal to that demographic.

In the short term, Walmart will probably sell a lot more $179 TVs than HD-DVD players. And they will be to different folks.

[racer-x]

I'm only interested because I have a HDV Camcorder and want a good playable solution other than using the Camcorder for playback of High Definition footage. I couldn't care less about Hollywood movie tittles...........

I plan to wait on the sidelines untill a dominant format becomes standard. Then I'll buy a burner and player to transfer my footage and possible distrobution.

[AlecWest]

Many people already have HD TVs.

The latest figures I've heard are that 80% of all TVs manufacured today are HD ... but 80% of all TVs owned today are not.

However, this Wal-Mart deal at least addresses #2, and #4 is slowly being corrected as time goes on.

...assuming Walmart is still around. A week from today, this cover will appear on Business Week magazine:

[oldandinthe way]

AlecWest

The businessweek article is just the latest in the coverage of the financial herd.

According to last weeks WSJ article "the street" wants Wall Mart to take action to become a "growth company" again.

They want Walmart to "grow" by scaling back new store openings, closing "weak" stores, and spinning off "Sam's Clubs" into a separate company. As well as closing their Japan joint venture.

We can expect more and more of this kind of press.

Walmart has a P/E ration of over 18 which is insane for a mature retail operation, when a company gives into the kind of Wall Street pressure coming to bear, the shareholders, their employees and their customers get screwed. Fortunately the Walmart management is pretty stubborn.

[Eug]

In the short term, Walmart will probably sell a lot more $179 TVs than HD-DVD players.

Of course, but Wal-Mart still sells a lot of HD TVs. Some claim that Wal-Mart customers only buy the cheap stuff, and that they rarely buy the high ticket items. By that logic, everyone would simply buy the Wii at Wal-Mart, and never buy the PS3.

Many people already have HD TVs.

The latest figures I've heard are that 80% of all TVs manufacured today are HD ... but 80% of all TVs owned today are not.

Last I heard was that 72% of households in the US do not have HD TVs, which means that 28% do, and that's growing.

That's an awful lot of HDTVs out there.

P.S. Latest sales news:

Blu-ray is first to 1 million discs. They are now at 1.2 million, and HD DVD is at 0.94 million.
Blu-ray is responsible for 70% of hi-def discs sold in the first quarter of 2007.
The highest selling disc was Casino Royale, with 59680 discs sold.

So, disc sales in Q1 are about 2.3:1 in Blu-ray's favour in Q1 (which is not surprising, considering that the HD DVD release slate sucked in Q1). However, this is in the context of about a 9:1 advantage in Blu-ray players out there. Thus, it seems that the PS3 is worth roughly 1/4 of a standalone in terms of disc sales.

[oldandinthe way]

Eug

You miss my point. Its not because people only buy inexpensive items at Walmart. It's the fact that more people WANT $179 TVs. Walmart consistantly has a TV at that price. Sometimes 27", sometimes 30". Sometimes flat screen other times not. This is a sweetspot in the market and Walmart meets the demand. They do so good a job that their competitprs avoid comparable TVs.

In HDTVs I frankly cannot see a Walmart advantage in price or features. They seem to be right in the pack with their competitors.

As for the numbers of HDTVs, growing - sure. How fast - no clear. Still not clear what the market effect of SDTVs with Digital tuners built in is or is going to be. Falling prices of HDTVs are hurting manufacturers and retailers.

There is no real support from the TV networks for HDTV. On my son-in-law's HD SONY, the only time I see 4:3 format is on the HD channels. All of the SD is upconverted, as are his DVDs. And everytime a viewer watches his favorite tv show on the web, that is one less HD-TV viewer.

BR-DVD sales suggest PS3 is greater than 1/4 of a standalone for casino royale when compared to sales of all other BR-DVDs

[Eug]

Eug

You miss my point. Its not because people only buy inexpensive items at Walmart. It's the fact that more people WANT $179 TVs. Walmart consistantly has a TV at that price. Sometimes 27", sometimes 30". Sometimes flat screen other times not. This is a sweetspot in the market and Walmart meets the demand. They do so good a job that their competitprs avoid comparable TVs.

In HDTVs I frankly cannot see a Walmart advantage in price or features. They seem to be right in the pack with their competitors.

As for the numbers of HDTVs, growing - sure. How fast - no clear. Still not clear what the market effect of SDTVs with Digital tuners built in is or is going to be. Falling prices of HDTVs are hurting manufacturers and retailers.

There is no real support from the TV networks for HDTV. On my son-in-law's HD SONY, the only time I see 4:3 format is on the HD channels. All of the SD is upconverted, as are his DVDs. And everytime a viewer watches his favorite tv show on the web, that is one less HD-TV viewer.

Except that Wal-Mart indeed does sell a lot of HD TVs. LCD HDTVs are quite popular there. Not as popular as $179 CRTs, no, but popular nonetheless.

BTW, I get many HD TV channels where I am:

CTV
CityTV
Sun
CBC HD
CBC SRC (French)
Rogers Sportsnet
theScore
PBS
Omni 1
Omni 2
Global
NBC
Fox
ABC
CBS

The HD channels above are all free with my digital cable.

I also pay for Discovery HD. For some reason I also get Raptors TV for free, but I think it's supposed to be a pay HD channel.

[TheFamilyMan]

Good for Walmart, I say. I paid $230 for my first and only set-top DVD player back in early 2001, which BTW I'm still using. I remember having to go the DVD section of the local rental shops to find DVD titles, and sometimes I had get the VHS version because it was the only format available. So it will be same with HD movies. I'll just sit back and wait a year or so and see what happens; I'm in no hurry.