The peaks matter, but bitrate viewer doesn't take into account the current state of buffer level, or the rate of data into the buffer. It only looks at data requested (ie. the water dripping out) , 1 of 3 components. You need to calculate input/ current level/output like a spreadsheet. Unlike a computer player, which essentially has an almost "infinite" buffer, devices with fixed function decoders do not. So it's not only the transfer rate that is important. Just because you have a USB HDD connection doesn't make you "safe" , unless it's connected to a HTPC . But I suspect you should be ok, since your average bitrates are so low
For the player issues - it's complex to debug because there are so many potential issues in the playback chain, from decoder, renderer, GPU settings, drivers etc... You should start another thread for that
Newer versions of VLC do have the correct colors now, at least on some setups
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