So now that my dinky little phone shoots 4K video, I am thinking 2016 will be the year of a new build if I ever want any hope of editing this stuff in a sane manner. I built my current system in 2011 using Intel's Z68 chipset. While I upgraded from Sandybridge to Ivybridge and have 16 GB of RAM and an SSD for the OS, my system is simply too sluggish, especially when rendering, but even when editing. However, I am beginning to think 2016 is going to be the perfect convergence of several new techs on the horizon:
CPU: Sandybridge/Ivybridge were good enough such that very little incentive existed to chock everything out for Haswell. And Broadwell doesn't even have a desktop variant yet. However, Skylake is forecasted to unveil sometime in 2015. I feel Skylake will be the perfect timing for a desktop upgrade. Let me briefly explain why. Skylake is a tock step in Intel's tick-tock cycle which means Intel is iterating on the 14 nm die shrink used in Broadwell versus a step down in die size. Intel's 7th generation processor, "Cannonlake", will be a tick step down to 10 nm sometime in 2017. I am personally skeptical how well this tick step will go, given Intel's struggles with 14 nm technology, and I also fear the initial push will be in the mobile space. I am hopeful we will see a Skylake-E chip in 2016 with potentially 12 physical cores. This is my wheelhouse CPU.
RAM: DDR4 is maturing quickly. And the Skylake processors/chipset are forecasted to support 128 GB of quad channel system memory. Zowie!
SSD: The super exciting news here is native PCIe SSDs. While the technology has been around since 2013, manufacturers have been slow on the uptake. However, we are seeing increasing momentum in this space in 2015 with more mainstream PCIe SSDs. 2016 could be the year of the PCIe SSD. What am I talking about? Well, SATAIII bandwidth maxes out at 550 MB/s. Even the low end SSDs saturate the SATA pipeline. The Intel Z170 chipset designed for Skylake will support many more PCIe lanes along with BIOS support for booting from a PCIe SSD. Speeds have already eclipsed 2,000 MB/s and will likely go even higher, maybe 5x or 6x SATAIII! Also, PCIe SSDs are much bigger than the 2.5" SATA cousins. Terabyte sizes will be common.
OS: Windows 10 will be released by probably August/September of 2015 and by 2016 have matured to an acceptable level.
So there you have it. My spec'd out system in 2016:
- Skylake-E with 12 physical cores
- 128 GB (8x16) of DDR4 RAM (likely start with 4x16 GB and add 4x16 GB later)
- 2 TB of native PCIe SSD running at over 2,000 MB/s
- Windows 10
I am not willing to compromise on any of the above spec's. In other words, I hope I don't have to wait too long. My guess is that this system will easily last for 10 years with no need for upgrades. And, 4K editing will be a reality and smooth as butter.
Timing is everything in life. Your thoughts?
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Last edited by SameSelf; 30th Apr 2015 at 20:42.
You are not building a 12 core Skylake-E for 3 grand anytime soon, that's for sure.
I finally decided to install the Windows 10 preview today as a VM. After 2 minutes I was looking for a way to turn off Cortana. It's really annoying if you don't want to use an audio interface to communicate with your PC. Fortunately, it wasn't hard to find out how to deactivate Cortana in a web search on Windows 7.
EDIT: I should clarify. When I said, "12-core Skylake-E," I was referring to physical cores. Hyperthreaded would be 24 threads not cores. I don't know exactly what cpu you configured but those are only 6 physical cores which is not even the biggest Haswell-E. Just to keep things apples to apples.
Last edited by SameSelf; 30th Apr 2015 at 21:02.
Expensive computer to last for 10 years? You are ignorantly optimistic and will be disappointed in about 5. The industry operates on a planned obsolescence model.
In 2008 I bought an overclocked last-of-the-line NetBurst PC. It wasn't expensive, it was cheap which is why I took it. But in 2006 it was the best of its kind. It encodes 720p with x264 at 4fps with medium settings. It allows NeatVideo to process 720p at 0.6 fps. The CPU is also 4 GHz, very hot and power hungry so leaving it running for days to complete encoding is unwise especially during the summer.
How foolish would anyone be to think that PC I bought would last until 2016? By your logic, it comfortably supported the hypes of its time (720p) and its support for hypes during its last year of usefulness would be painful but doable. Let's see... if it encodes 720p at 4fps, it would encode 4K at 0.44 fps with x264 and 10 times slower with x265. And if I used the same 1GB RAM I got with the PC, this wouldn't even possible as it's not enough. Doable? Hell no. Right now that CPU I had 6 years ago sells for $6 on eBay.
In 2010 I bought a new PC whose CPU (a 2009 model) is over 5 times faster than its power hungry predecessor yet takes less power. Just 5 years later I already need a new PC because this one encodes even low resolutions with x265 at under 1 fps. I frequently run out of memory when doing avisynth filtering, NeatVideo isn't as slow as before but still doesn't process in real time. I could go on and on. This circa 2010 PC is already outdated and painful to work with.
What you buy in 2016 will last until 2021. Computers are built to expire fast.
Much of the other shit you wrote is misguided and wrong. First off, "support up to 128GB RAM" means exactly what it says. It doesn't mean 128GB RAM will be on the shelves or practical to connect a bunch of smaller RAM sticks together. Windows95 supported up to 512MB RAM when it came out but 512MB wasn't available until 10 years later.
SSDs with speeds of 2 GB/s? Cite this. The fastest current ones don't exceed 550 MB/s and I'd be more worried about the random speed. Always assume worst case scenario. Your video is badly fragmented into the smallest chunks the OS allows, how fast would it be read and written? The very fastest SSD I've seen benchmarked doesn't go beyond 35 MB/s. So a big 50GB lossless video you're working with would take... 24 minutes to be processed assuming the SSD is the bottleneck.
You sir are extremely gullible but it's your money. The industry loves people like you.
You can already buy 16GB sticks.
M.2 PCIe 4x is already allowing double that speed and Intel has the SSD 750 series that can go over 2GB/s
You apparently don't know what you are talking about.
You haven't posted a single fact as of yet.
You've just barely joined and all I've seen you do on the forum is randomly instigate and troll.
You did the same in my last thread about merging several clips to create a higher bit depth. When contradicted by hard evidence, you briefly spaz with some momentary retardation and fall silent.
I smell a malignant narcissist and a troll here.
By the way feel free to open that topic again, I find your "hard evidence" of making an 8 bit VCR video recording into a 10 bit video by repeated capturing quite entertaining.
And for others to confirm if they like, a review of the Samsung PCIe based M.2 SSD, 6 months ago:
And on the availability:
Samsung has a newer model but it is in limited release, usually only for system integrators, but if you can't wait you might want to talk with RamCity in Ozzyland.
And the Intel SSD was actually reviewed in the link I provided earlier.
Benchmarks are in the articles.
Last edited by newpball; 1st May 2015 at 15:40.
I'm personally attacking you because I point out that you ignore evidence and proclaim yourself to be right every time?
Respect is earned, not given. Prefer and demand what you want. But if you don't wanna be considered a moron, don't act like one.
By the way feel free to open that topic again,
I find your "hard evidence" of making an 8 bit VCR video recording into a 10 bit video by repeated capturing quite entertaining.
Don't even respond. I don't care for this little bitchfest you wanna have. I'm done.
On a video forum one should discuss topics not make personal attacks to fellow members. One should be free to disagree with someone, and we can even have heated discussions but personal attacks are simply not cool.
And why all those expletives?
Ignoring evidence and proclaiming yourself to be right every time is what you call discussion? Okay.
There is absolutely no reason to personally attack another member.I find your "hard evidence" of making an 8 bit VCR video recording into a 10 bit video by repeated capturing quite entertaining.
Samsung has a newer model but it is in limited release, usually only for system integrators, but if you can't way you might want to talk with RamCity in Ozzyland.
And the Intel SSD was actually reviewed in the link I provided earlier.
Benchmarks are in the articles.
That's twice as pathetic than my maximum 35 MB/s figure you rolled your eyes at earlier.
Second link contains no benchmarks.
The high-degree narcissist couldn't find any falsified data to support his previously flawed claim? Pitiful.
Sheesh, this thread has been hijacked by trolls or individuals that have very little understanding of computers. I wrote over 500 words in my OP, but rather than generate intelligent discussion about Skylake, or Cannondale, or DDR4 RAM, or native PCIe SSD, or the timing of a new build (2015 or 2016 or 2017), or the benefits of a new build, etc., it has devolved into detritus about 17 words that I appended at the end. As if somehow, that was the only thing worth discussing.
But since nobody can't get it out of their heads, I will spend a few more than 17 words on why I said, "10 years."
First, I DID NOT claim that I could have built a powerful PC in the past that would last 10 years. In fact I admitted that my 2011 era machine was finally feeling long in the tooth after 4 years, but wouldn't justify an upgrade for at least another year. So stop with the strawman arguments already.
Second, CPU advancements have slowed considerably. The days of big gains with each new cpu from either Intel or AMD are long gone. Each incremental tick-tock cycle is only about 2%-3% in performance improvement and it has been that way since for the last few generations. Thus it takes about four cycles just to squeeze 12.5% of performance gains from an upgrade. Bottomline, if you have a Sandybridge-E right now, you're stuck waiting for a better chip. Haswell-E is not worth the upgrade.
Third, Intel is emphasizing the mobile/device space more than desktops to battle ARM. This has big implications for enthusiasts and the future of the desktop cpu. Look at Broadwell: Intel hasn't even released a desktop version of this microarchitecture. I think that speaks volumes about the future of the desktop PC versus the device market. Of course, if you're a pro editor, this is of no concern because you work on Xeon workstations. The emphasis of mobile over desktop is also apparent in PCIe SSDs which were first deployed in mobile applications and are only slowly, ever so slowly, finding their way to the desktop.
Fourth, the system I spec'd out in my OP will deploy key technologies that represent big step forwards: DDR4 vs DDR3 and native PCIe SSD vs SATA3. DDR3 RAM debuted in 2007 and is nearly ten years old. So, yes, I feel quite strongly that DDR5 or whatever comes after DDR4 is likely about 10 years off. Similarly, SATA3 been around since 2009. We are only this year just starting to abandon it for a faster interface. Now, you might challenge how fast we see DDR5 or the next generation storage interface. But, part of my reasoning for saying, 2016 will be the year of the build is that not one, but four, key technologies are coming together at once: 1) cpu, 2) ram, 3) storage, and 4) OS. When will the stars align like that again? Probably not for another 20 years.
EDIT: and lastly, if you build a middle of the road PC, don't expect to get more than a few years of useful life out of it. Only when you buy the absolute best at any given time will you be able to squeeze more useful life out of it. So, don't give me any blah blah blah about some rinky dink system you bought that was obsolete after a few years. Instead tell me why you ditched Sandybridge-E for Haswell-E. That's a discussion worth having as I am targeting Skylake-E.
Last edited by SameSelf; 1st May 2015 at 16:24.
You are correct that increases in CPU speed have slowed down but you're making the mistake of assuming this trend will continue. What used to be a 60% increase in performance per year has dropped to 12.5 (single-thread) because frequency has stopped increasing and all the improvements have been due to component integration and instructions-per-cycle improvements.
But these are temporary, last-advancements to an outdated architecture while a more revolutionary shift is being worked on:
Never assume things will continue going down the path they were for the past 5 years. Look back to the broad history and notice how every seemingly established dead-end has been superseded by a revolutionary change rather than a linear advancement. Advancements are easy to predict, changes aren't.
Aight cool, perhaps you'd prefer a lot of drive by commenters on this forum with no additional thoughts instead.
As you can see, I am the only one in this thread who took the time to compose something other than a one-liner. Ergo, I'm the only one that bothered to pay any attention to you. Then again I should've noticed your location says "steers and queers".
Go spend $10,000 on your precious machine that will be obsolete in a few years. No skin off my ass. I give you my full, hypersensitive, pleasant, politically-correct encouragement to do so.
What will be a problem is building such a machine for the 3 grand the OP seems to think it will cost, hell he thinks that the processor + mobo will be less than $1500, LOL.
The rest of his posts are such BS that I can't even be bothered to respond.
Oh, and Habanero is obviously Mephisto, same profanity laced tirades and look at the join date.