In 5 years time...

[Mephesto]

So on doom9 we did this in 2003 and 2008, time for 2013.

Let's try to guess where the world of codecs, containers and amateur PC video will be in five years time and check this thread in 2018.

I will have to abstain from the game this time but let's hear the rest of you.

[yoda313]

I'll go out on a limb and say 4k will go the way of hd-dvd. IE doa.

[deadrats]

I'll go out on a limb and say 4k will go the way of hd-dvd. IE doa.

HD-DVD was not doa, for a while it was up in the air whether it or blu-ray would emerge as the next gen format, it wasn't until Toshiba, the principal backer of HD-DVD, decided to abandon the format that the battle between the two came to an end.

as for 5 years time:

1) intel will extend quick sync's capabilities to include hardware hevc encoding capabilities.

2) nvidia's built in nvenc chip will support hevc encoding in addition to h264 encoding.

3) most uploads on various torrent sites will be in hevc format.

4) handbrake, media coder, xmedia recode and the rest of the open source apps will support some open source hevc encoder, though not necessarily x265.

5) the x264 developer's will have a falling out with the x265 developers and sue them over a claim of trademark infringement; the x265 folks in turn will win said suit by relying on the "previous art" argument.

6) the x264 developer's and friends will have a working daala encoder beta available and the x264 worshipers will proclaiming that it is the best encoder available.

7) nero will have the best hevc encoder available.

8) amd will have reclaimed the performance crown by releasing an incredibly fast apu, sadly the victory will be short lived as by years end intel will have pulled a core2duo on them...again.

[Noahtuck]

Didn't you already start a thread kind of like this ??
https://forum.videohelp.com/threads/358999-5-years-time-predictions-5-years-ago

Or are you actually gamemaniaco ?!?!?!
LOL!!!!

[bendixG15]

Mephesto will post....

So on doom9 we did this in 2003 and 2008 and 2013, time for 2018

[fritzi93]

Okay, here goes:

1) UHD (4k) LED/LCDs will be common, due to the derisory added incremental cost. Perhaps only for *big* TVs and computer monitors.

2) As to OLED or UHD OLED, I just dunno. There's no sign as yet that the problem with low yields will be solved, hence prices may still be far too high. LED/LCD is cheap and "good enough" for the vast bulk of the market.

3) Plasma will still be around, but will be (even more) niche.

4) There will be one more (or last) physical optical disc format for H.265 UHD movies. Perhaps on BDXL or similar. I just don't see that there will be enough bandwidth for UHD downloads or streaming, even in 5 years time. Without a physical format, UHD content may be near non-existent, or strictly proprietary, like the Sony server. Which may amount to the same thing, as far as the mass-market is concerned.

5) H.265 will be in common use, though it will not yet have displaced H.264. Hardware decoding is a necessity (pretty much), and standards have been finalized, if memory serves. Remember when H.264 was introduced. It took a few years of development before it took off.

6) The UHD disc format (if there is one!) will not come near to displacing Blu-Ray in 5 years time. Even now, Blu-Ray has not displaced DVD, and I think UHD penetration will be even slower.

[EDIT] You may object to the above as not sticking to the subject of "amateur PC video". But I think the above developments will affect what we, as video hobbyists, are doing 5 years hence.

[TreeTops]

3D dead until the next generation of kiddies needs to see the eye candy. That could take longer than 5 years however.

[turk690]

Subscription model notwithstanding, Adobe will offer Premiere Pro once more as a digital download, and on a DVD. But it will still sport the undying teary-eyed AME-MainConcept duo.

[budwzr]

1) Cell phones will grow into computers and small mp3 players will become popular again.

2) iPhones will be cut from Swarovsky Crystal and coated with the latest bling coating and cost $1000.

3) Macs will cost $5000, but get a lot thinner.

4) FCPX will introduce Compositing.

[yoda313]

1) Cell phones will grow into computers and small mp3 players will become popular again.

Um the first part has already happened. And if you count the hype of the "64bit processor" for the latest iphone its happening at a stupendous rate.

As for the small mp3 only player becoming a factor again I don't buy that. If its not a tablet or a phone I don't think it'll gain any traction.

The sole exception might be those "smart watches". If those gain ground and can use micro sd cards in the 30gb and up range than those might catch on as mp3 players I suppose......

2) iPhones will be cut from Swarovsky Crystal and coated with the latest bling coating and cost $1000.

There are stories all the time about crazy jazzed up iphones. Don't know the price ranges but you see it every now and then on cnet.com and the like.

The others I can't comment on

[Mephesto]

Mephesto will post....

So on doom9 we did this in 2003 and 2008 and 2013, time for 2018

First strike and you're out! on doom9 we did this in 2003 and 2008 but not 2013 and I'm completely done with doom9 so IF I come back here in 5 years doom9 would not be mentioned it would be a direct reply to this thread in 2018.

[EDIT] You may object to the above as not sticking to the subject of "amateur PC video". But I think the above developments will affect what we, as video hobbyists, are doing 5 years hence.

Don't think too hard, homie. It's fine. Any predictions within the subject of anything more or less related to amateur PC video is fine. You'll know when you're being blatantly off-topic. Stuff like SSD/USB capacities/prices are alright as well.

4) There will be one more (or last) physical optical disc format for H.265 UHD movies. Perhaps on BDXL or similar. I just don't see that there will be enough bandwidth for UHD downloads or streaming, even in 5 years time. Without a physical format, UHD content may be near non-existent, or strictly proprietary, like the Sony server. Which may amount to the same thing, as far as the mass-market is concerned.

This Sony server is what? Remote storage or some RAID-like high-capacity setup?

[MindController]

Steve Jobs is resurrected to fight for humanity in 2018 during the mobile wars.

[fritzi93]

The Sony FMP-X1 4k media player comes with the 84X900 Sony UHDTV. It's proprietary and will only work with a Sony UHDTV. Surprise! It comes with 10 pre-loaded 4k movies and supposedly there will be 100 by the end of the year available via Sony's Video Unlimited 4k service. All Sony owned movies, I presume.

There's no way I'm buying into that, so I had no interest in learning more. There was some discussion on the AVS forum, but it was all hypothetical as I remember it, as nobody who posted actually had one. AFAIK, it's just a media player with hard drive, and you can download additional movies to it. Other than that, I dunno. It's a dead end, IMO.

[Tom Saurus]

I think in 5 years time that the Internet Download/Upload speeds will be much faster. I think that streaming video is going to be with the .h265 codec with an encryption scheme like Cinavea in Blu-ray discs that will not be easily cracked. I can see 20 TB hard drives and 1 TB flash cards.

[El Heggunte]

In 2018 all things will be 5 years older than they are today, granted.