Netflix stock down 40%

[wulf109]

The decline in stock value means shareholders are losing value and no matter what technical issue makes it not as bad as it seems,it's not a good sign. Wall Street has no confidence in current business model. If shareholders continue to dump stock the end may well be in sight. The drop in share value would seem to be caused by the decline in subscribers which will likely continue.

[jman98]

I think you guys missed my point about the stock plunge. If the stock goes really low, they will be bought out by someone and that new company will suck out any remaining funds and that will be their end.

Some stock analysts have a very different view from you that this is a temporary setback and will get them quicker towards being the kind of company that the analysts want them to be. However, even if it is a mistake it still may be quite a stretch to conclude that they'll be bought and closed down.

[wulf109]

Anyway to know which subscribers their losing? Actually the prices for rental did not increase,the overall increase is due to the separate $8 for streaming. Are they losing because of the streaming cost?

[edDV]

Anyway to know which subscribers their losing? Actually the prices for rental did not increase,the overall increase is due to the separate $8 for streaming. Are they losing because of the streaming cost?

They are losing DVD + streaming customers because they got the highest price increase ~$9/mo. Some customers change to streaming only, others switch to DVD only or cancel.

I switched from 2 DVD + stream to 1 DVD +stream and got a $1/mo increase.

[lacywest]

They were already making a killing at their previous prices.

People like to say this ... but I don't know that I can agree. Postal rates have gone up, licensing had changed on them (Starz incident), and bandwidth costs have averaged for a while now. The steady increase in customers pulled on expenses, and that would have more likely killed Netflix than anything else.

notice that their earning guidance hasn't changed? In other words, every dollar they lose from people defecting is being made up by the higher rates they're now charging. It looks like they made the right decision from their point of view.

Yep. At some point, the trend will reverse, when people pull their head out of their ass and realize the price point was extremely reasonable. They can't find a better deal from Red Box, Blockbuster, Dish Online, or Hulu. It's $8 to stream all your want, or $8 to rent probably 6-8 DVDs per month.

....

Most anti-Netflix news is, and always has been, the tantrums of the stupid. (And I say this, not being a current customer of Netflix. So I can't be accused of being a pro-Netflix fanboy.)

Not so ... to stream all you want ... AT&T has been sending me nasty emails about my going over the 150 GB limit ... and we are struggling right now just trying to keep the ... normal phone bill and DSL connection going. I was planning to re-subscribe to Netflix and do the streaming thing. But AT&T wants to add on an extra $10 bucks for every 50GB I go over.

Blockbuster in my town ... rents DVDs and BlueRays for 99 cents ... and on Sundays ... 53 Cents out the door. If I really want to rent a movie ... I know where to go ... Blockbuster.

[jagabo]

The decline in stock value means shareholders are losing value and no matter what technical issue makes it not as bad as it seems,it's not a good sign.

NFLX has an astronomical P/E. They were way overpriced.

[edDV]

The decline in stock value means shareholders are losing value and no matter what technical issue makes it not as bad as it seems,it's not a good sign.

NFLX has an astronomical P/E. They were way overpriced.

Right. A classic bubble. What goes up must come down and the price increase was the catalyst.

That doesn't mean after the stock price settles, NFLX doesn't correct upward. AAPL has done this over and over repeatedly getting to bargain levels.

AAPL 1 year


NFLX 1 year

Note the low volume during the NFLX decline.

But also note the current AAPL P/E at 15.85 vs NFLX at 39.3 even after the correction.This stock could keep dropping until it doesn't. Don't buy until it settles.

[jagabo]

Not so ... to stream all you want ... AT&T has been sending me nasty emails about my going over the 150 GB limit ... and we are struggling right now just trying to keep the ... normal phone bill and DSL connection going. I was planning to re-subscribe to Netflix and do the streaming thing. But AT&T wants to add on an extra $10 bucks for every 50GB I go over.

ATT is trying to protect their U-verse TV business. They get a lot more money from delivering TV than they do delivering internet bits. It's the same for all the ISPs that are also cable TV companies. They don't want competition. The internet was just fine until it started nosing into their TV business.

[cal_tony]

The decline in stock value means shareholders are losing value and no matter what technical issue makes it not as bad as it seems,it's not a good sign.

NFLX has an astronomical P/E. They were way overpriced.

But also note the current AAPL P/E at 15.85 vs NFLX at 39.3 even after the correction.This stock could keep dropping until it doesn't. Don't buy until it settles.

Your right about that.... and when it stops dropping then maybe it's time to buy..... and time to buy quickly.

I'll be a buyer..... and since I don't stream , my monthly fees went down so I can buy even more stock


Tony

[edDV]

To make NFLX work you need to wait for most investors to give up and sell.

When Netflx are in dire straights, they can negotiate much better prices for world wide streaming content. They are the only global game now. It is all about the next year contract negotiation.

[lordsmurf]

I think you guys missed my point about the stock plunge. If the stock goes really low, they will be bought out by someone and that new company will suck out any remaining funds and that will be their end.

That's not true at all.

[MJA]

I got an email this morning from netflix .

Qwikster for DVD's,and netflix for streaming only

Dear (*&^%,

I messed up. I owe you an explanation.

removed most of it.lol

[jagabo]

Yes, was pointed out earlier:
https://forum.videohelp.com/threads/339085-Netflix-renames-their-DVD-service-to-Qwikster

[handyguy]

The deaf are suing NF to get streaming captioned & they are just beginning to do that, about 30%, supposed to be 80% by Jan. Now that I'm getting some captioned streaming, I have to pay more.

So, you can get free streaming if you don't mind the commercials from hulu.com & it has a wonderful captioned selection. Have not tried hulu plus to see if there are commercials on that, how is that?

[fooledagain]

And down it goes another 25% today. D-bag extraordinaire "Reed Hastings" says in a WSJ article:

Mr. Hastings said he was pleased with the company's marketing efforts and that it wouldn't offer any promotions to bring back spurned subscribers. "The focus is on bringing back our reputation and brand strength, but it won't happen through grand gestures."

Sorry Reed, a grand gesture happens to be exactly what you need. This guy has lost his mind.

[budwzr]

I went to Mickie Dee's today, cost me $8. The same price as a month of streaming from NetFlix. Which one do you think is the best value? That's a no brainer.

[fooledagain]

I went to Mickie Dee's today, cost me $8. The same price as a month of streaming from NetFlix. Which one do you think is the best value? That's a no brainer.

Depends on how hungry you are. Value is a perception. A lot of people disconnected when the price jumped 60%. Maybe that still is a great value (if they have the content you want) but the bottom line is that Netflix is losing customers and stock value. "Reed Hastings" is doing and saying a lot of crazy shit for a guy on the deck of the Titanic.

[budwzr]

If you just cut out ONE visit to McDougalls a month, you can get NetFlix "free". Or just skip that latte twice a month. Drink water instead of soda at restaurants three times a month.

You can't get anything unlimited for a month for $8,

I think the people canceling are doing so hoping to get a free swag bag or something. A few bucks one way or the other surely can't make that much difference.

[jagabo]

After hours trading doesn't mean much. The quarterly report was after the bell today. NFLX reported they lost 800,000 subscribers. That sounds like a lot but it's only a little over 3 percent of their subscribers. They beat expectations but said they wouldn't be profitable over the next few quarters as they expand into the UK and Ireland.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/24/technology/netflix_earnings/index.htm

[budwzr]

And good riddance to them too. Maybe I'll get more "HD" connections now during prime time.

[fooledagain]

I didn't cancel until they announced the splitting of the company. I would have gone back after they cancelled the split plan, but the colossal arrogance of "Reed Hastings" as well as the alternatives I have found mean I probably won't go back.

[budwzr]

Alternatives, like what?

[fooledagain]

Alternatives, like what?

I looked at my viewing habits with Netflix and determined that a combination of Amazon Prime, buying DVDs or BDs occasionally, and using my HD PVR 1212 to record cable was cheaper than paying for Netflix.

[budwzr]

Oh, so you have cable. No wonder you're able to quit NF, you still have a paid service to fall back on. For me, I REPLACED my dish network with NF. I'm actually saving money being on NF, even if they go up to $20. Minimum pay service around here is $25 and up.

[jagabo]

Alternatives, like what?

I looked at my viewing habits with Netflix and determined that a combination of Amazon Prime, buying DVDs or BDs occasionally, and using my HD PVR 1212 to record cable was cheaper than paying for Netflix.

You get Amazon Prime, a few DVDs and DBs, and get cable for less than $16/month?

[wulf109]

How is Netflix a replacement for satelite TV? I subscribe to Dish's minimal Dish America package and two movie services and I have external HD USB'ed to my receiver so I can record for future viewing. There's no monthly fee for the HD recording because i'm not using their hardware. I can record anything they broadcast.

[budwzr]

How is Netflix a replacement for satelite TV?

I can look for something interesting to watch any time on demand. No more cooking channels and food networks getting in the way.

If I want to watch that stuff there's free DTV. Sometimes I watch Judge Judy.

The Roku box gets the latest news, weather, and Fox channel highlights among lots of other stuff I don't have time for.

I have a software PVR and HD-PVR too, and record, err, timeshift a lot of things as well. In fact, I need to start clearing out some recordings because my 1TB portable drive is filling up. Not enough time in the day to catch everything.

Not to mention all the news apps on my ipad, plus Life Magazine, US News and World Report, USA Today, Reuters, etc. They're all begging me to watch fer free.

I have so much good free stuff coming in, but NetFlix is good and cheap for movies. Of course I prefer the better movies, not so much the latest movies. I'm not lucky picking movies blindly, so I use the ratings to help me find good ones.

Can You Find:

Taxi Driver
Body Heat
Before The Devil Knows You're Dead
No Country For Old Men
The Hot Spot
Paris, Texas

At Redbox? Or anywhere? I think not.

[handyguy]

Alternatives, like what?

hulu.com & it's free. Just connect your computer to your TV. Also, PBS put's it's shows online for free. Both have great captioning. As for commercials, hulu is about 6 minutes per hour, 45-65 sec each, but regular TV is 22 min per hour. You can pay for hulu too. MTV also has free stuff online.

[jagabo]

As for commercials, hulu is about 6 minutes per hour, 45-65 sec each

And if you block their ad servers you don't even see them. You still have to wait the same amount of time with an error message though.

[neomaine]

Blockbuster in my town ... rents DVDs and BlueRays for 99 cents ... and on Sundays ... 53 Cents out the door. If I really want to rent a movie ... I know where to go ... Blockbuster.

+1 Can't beat the BB selection and prices if available locally. I'm toying with the 1+1 for 8.99. One at a time by mail (dvd or br) and one free rental in store per month. Everything can be returned to the store for immediate credit. No waiting for the disc to be received by mail.