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Will take a long time?
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Not for a very long time... if ever.
There are way to many people that are plenty happy with their standard def equipment. I personally don't have any HD equipment. All my tv's and av equipment are standard def. Would I like an HDTV? Yep. But honestly right now I can't justify the expense when everything I have is working.Donadagohvi (Cherokee for "Until we meet again")
Agree with freebird73717 (is that number a zip code?). The sluggish economy will make folks think twice about unnecessary expenditures. If, in later years, the BR movies and players are offered at the same price as DVDs are, then the masses will gradually move over to the newer media through attrition (that is, when their current DVD players die and they are seeking comparably priced replacements).
Even on HDTV, my DVDs look good enough for my eyeballs -- as well as those of family and friends. You're right fjmr -- it's hard to justify the expense.
Originally Posted by filmboss80Donadagohvi (Cherokee for "Until we meet again")
Wasn't it actually vcdhelp when you and I joined? Right about the same time. [EDIT] Maybe I'm thinking of the couple of years I was a lurker, I dunno, too long ago to remember.
I think DVDs will be around for quite a while, although Blu-Ray will steadily make inroads in market share. Too many people have DVD players and working SDTVs they will be reluctant to junk. Besides, Blu-Ray has little advantage in 32" size TVs and smaller, and there will always be some of those. It may be that BD and DVD are killed off simultaneously by the next delivery method, whatever that may be.Pull! Bang! Darn!
It won't "kill" DVD, at least not in the same sense the DVD "killed" VHS and LaserDisc. For one thing, there won't be enough time: Hollywood is hellbent on phasing rental discs out altogether, they're still kicking themselves for letting Sony and Toshiba waste two years on a stupid format war, because by the time Sony "won", the mass market opportunity had already passed. Consumers have moved on to other ways of consuming media, especially the all-powerful under-30 crowd. Disc rentals are migrating quickly to just NetFlix and automated kiosks, a trend the studios do not like at all: they much prefer dealing with stores, but the dedicated video store is a dying concept. Keeping physical discs viable and marginally profitable will require much more attention to HD mastering, and quick standardization of 3D-on-BD (already in the works for late this year).
At the moment BluRay is slowly but surely gaining ground. It stalled when the economy crashed, but with everyone involved aggressively promoting it post-Holidays it is enjoying increased success. Whether anyone can make money at it is the problem: the players only started selling in huge numbers when prices got slashed to the $99-$150 range in December, and BD players sales are totally disconnected from BD disc sales. At this point in the curve, the people buying those affordable BD players are picking them up as generic media players, not because they have any particular interest in BD. They are still mostly buying or renting ordinary DVDs to play on them. This unexpected behavior has forced Hollywood to regress, and promise to include an ordinary DVD with all future BD new releases. This drives up the mfr cost at a time when retail prices have been slashed to jump start BD sales. Imagine if this had happened with the original DVD launch, and they had to include a VHS with every new DVD release for a couple years. Messy.
Nonetheless the trend is being pushed inexorably to BluRay: even with its relative inability to be the huge moneymaker its backers hoped for, they all have so much riding on it that its "too big to fail" in the long run. By 2012 BluRay will likely be forced as the default disc format for new releases, the studios and retailers are not going to put up with this dual-format crap for much longer. By then we'll see $49 Coby BD players, and BD disc prices will be at parity with todays blowout DVD prices, so the excuse of poor people still needing DVDs will be neutralized. But DVD will not disappear, there are too many of them sitting in peoples homes so compatibility with BD players and drives should continue indefinitely. And unless Sony does something really dramatic to lower recordable BD media prices, DVD will remain a popular computer storage and personal video carrier for quite awhile yet.
Originally Posted by fritzi93Donadagohvi (Cherokee for "Until we meet again")
Originally Posted by freebird73717Pull! Bang! Darn!
Yeah I also am a member from the times of vcdhelp!!!
And unless Sony does something really dramatic to lower recordable BD media prices, DVD will remain a popular computer storage and personal video carrier for quite awhile yet.
I agree if the price of BD Media falls dramatically then We can prepare the burial of DVD!!!
That is folks!!
If DVD failed to kill VCD, and it did fail, BluRay isn't going to kill DVD. People in the USA (and Canada to a lesser extent) fail to understand that the vast majority of the world's population lives outside of North America and whatever happens here may have little to zero effect elsewhere. Hollywood does NOT call the shots in Asia, for example, because many Asian countries have domestic film industries that are much more important to the local economies than Hollywood movies are.
I don't fully agree with orsetto. Actually unless he would care to cite examples to the contrary, Disney is the ONLY studio I know that includes a DVD with their BluRay releases as a standard course of action. Some of the other studios include those infamous "digital copies" that aren't worth the trouble it took to make them due to quick expiration dates, but that's not the same thing in my opinion.
Most Americans have a pathological aversion to physical media now. This is part of the reason that DVD recorders have basically failed here. So I can see that here there is a big push for rentals or streaming here. It's what the "kids" want.
VHS and laserdisc died because DVDs eventually dropped to a lower price than both of those and both VHS and laserdisc had horrible flaws. VHS was really a pretty low quality format and the tapes were larger than DVDs, making it take up more space to store. Laserdisc had size and cost issues for the entire life of the format, "laser rot" ended up being a huge negative that no other format ever had to deal with, and the idea of flipping a laserdisc (few remember that early commercial DVDs were only single layer and some required flipping) turned many off. DVD doesn't suffer from any killer drawbacks and for many the quality of DVD is "good enough".
Bluray is OK if you view them on a large screen, but not everyone who watches movies uses one.
You wont find many HD screens in cars/mobile homes or even the average bedroom. For those places DVD is perfectly adequate.
I think it was 8millimeterhelp.com when I joined
No seriously, I still type vcdhelp sometimes, it still resolved
As for blueray, I doubt it. They need to slash prices a thousand percent or more. Eyes generally start to get fuzzy from late 30ies, so the quality is probably way to good.
I can't see the difference between a dvd and blueray, so no reason to waste - yet again, a ton of money paying for all the things I thought i had already bought.
If the companies offered to exchanged all my DVDs for bluerays for free, I might consider it
Wasn't it Handcrankedsilentmoviehelp.com? With people posting problems of how to get their organist in sync with the action
I think BD will gradually get bigger and bigger market share as people's DVD player wear out and get replaced, but I think it'll be a long time before the death of DVD's.
Providing the manufacturers and studios don't do something stupid to fracture the fledgling market for BluRay it should grow steadily.... Oh Wait.. 3D BD
Although Blu-ray sales are increasing Blu-ray will never surpass DVD sales worldwide. Streaming is already effecting disc sales, Warner signed a deal with Netflix to give them a 28 day delay on new releases, in doing so Netflix will get cheaper prices on discs and more selections for streaming.
Whether we consumers will see any benefit is still unknown.
I think that Blu-Ray will replace DVD sooner than we think. Players are coming down in price and they are backward compatible, Burners are coming down and price and media/software (movies) is coming down in price. And the consumer buzz is way up!
Coming from the photo industry I can tell you that these things have a way of moving in quickly. Most of my customers don't understand what a megapixel is but they all think they need a lot of them and the electronics companies, news reports and consumer reviews are all more than willing to keep the myths moving ahead of the facts. It's always about marketing the buzz words to move the products.
I had a husband and wife in on Saturday looking at a digital point-and-shoot camera and the husband asked if it can connect to the computer. I showed him the USB port. His wife then asked why it didn't have an HDMI connector. I wa a little taken back, but then explained how that was for video devices. She apologized and said she's been hearing all these terms recently and didn't realize they weren't universal. I told her it was a good question (didn't want her to feel badly).
My point here is that when people are confused they think what they are told to think and will make their purchases that way.
I predict that within the next 2 years they will begin stopping production of DVD players, and then finally DVD software. I give it 5 years for Blu-Ray to dominate these markets. And why not? As technology becomes cheaper it also becomes more desirable.
--dES"You can observe a lot by watching." - Yogi Bera
The short answer to this question is a simple, "No."
Why won't Blu-ray kill DVD? There are numerous reasons. First of all, the cost of migrating to Blu-ray can add up. People who want a good Blu-ray player have to pay more for it than those buying Blu-ray players on the cheap. Secondly, while upconverted SD DVDs may be enough for some people there are other people who will replace their SD DVD collection with Blu-ray versions of the movies they already owned. That's an added cost. Throw in a solid HDTV, a receiver, speaker setup, etc, to fully experience the Blu-ray/High Def experience. Again, that adds up. The current selection of movies on Blu-ray is expanding however I am floored to see some of the utter garbage that is being released on Blu-ray yet many superb movies are still unreleased on Blu-ray. That's a pity.
Now, some people already spent a good deal of money on the Blu-ray player, receiver, speakers, HDTV, etc, but guess what? They may have to spend more money to experience everything Blu-ray. The Oppo BDP-83 is one of the best Blu-ray players and has been the number 1 rated player by many publications yet it won't be able to offer true 3D Blu-ray. The limitation is the fact that the player is HDMI 1.3 which doesn't possess enough bandwidth. HDMI 1.4 is required. HDMI 1.4 will require people to upgrade all of their hardware simply to make full use of 3D Blu-ray and coming advancements for Blu-ray. A TV upgrade will be required, as well.
DVDs will still be around for years to come because of the licensing costs of Blu-ray and the cost to the consumers to join the Blu-ray club. Products that ship with a simple DVD instructional guide will continue to do so unless they come from a company with money to burn. Why should a company drop money on an AACS license for an instructional video for their product? They shouldn't have to but the stupidity of the Blu-ray format is that all BD-ROMs must use AACS. Small companies and/or small studios are effectively locked out of the Blu-ray format.
SD DVDs were pretty simple and the players weren't overly complicated. They worked. Blu-ray, on the other hand, is a still evolving format where existing hardware will become out-dated and already has. Until the Blu-ray format stabilizes in terms of advancements that will make people have to keep updating their hardware, I don't see Blu-ray killing off the SD DVD format anytime soon. When the Blu-ray format is finalized without major additions requiring users to buy new hardware and all new content is available on Blu-ray then Blu-ray will truly begin taking over. I'm still hoping that at some later time the AACS requirement is lifted but I'm not holding my breath. Simply removing that requirement would open the format to small and/or independent studios.
Yes it will. And some day something will kill bluray, it's only a matter of time. You are starting to see bluray players for $100 now and that seems to be the point where even frugal people will make the move. Also, I recently bought Star Trek the day it came out and it was the same price as the dvd. So, prices are coming down and with the other streaming features that the players have, they will become more attractive to buyers. Another 5 yrs. and you will start to read about the death of the dvd same as vhs today. That doesn't mean that people won't still own and continue to watch the dvds that they have for a very long time to come.I love children, girl children... about 16-40
Originally Posted by ricoman
Prices are dropping, sure, but you get what you pay for, too. I wouldn't buy one of the cheap ones. The falling prices of Blu-ray discs doesn't make up for the other costs involved in the format. In many cases I've grabbed Blu-ray releases of movies that are priced cheaper than the SD DVD release. IMHO this is a result of studios and retailers wanting to increase sales and adoption of the format. Lastly, as for the death of DVD being like VHS... up until like 1-2 years ago Walmart still sold VHS movie releases and they were still being released. It took years for VHS to die after SD DVD became the new format. SD DVD has a lengthy life ahead of it and Blu-ray has quite a bit of work to do before it will drive a stake in SD DVD's heart.
I agree, I'm not saying dvd it's going to drop out of sight, but in 5 yrs. or so it will be obvious that it is on the way out just like vhs a few yrs. after dvds were introduced. Sure, there were still plenty of tapes on the market and in warehouses so they were around for a while, but you knew after a just a few years that they were on the way out. I guess what I'm saying is that in approx. 5 yrs. that bluray will pass dvd in sales, but dvd will hang around for a while longer like vhs did.I love children, girl children... about 16-40
I didn't see DVDs 'killing' CDs, but it did likely drop their sales considerably. And I don't think Blu-ray, at least in it's present format, will be around all that long. If Hollywood ever leaves the video formats alone, there is a lot of room for improvements such as much larger optical storage sizes or even a newer technology with higher resolutions that will make BDs obsolete faster than BDs will ever make DVDs obsolete. JMO
It's true that standalone player prices have dropped sharply in the past few months. But they are still double what an SD DVD costs. Retail disks are still 50% higher. Computer BD burners are about 7 times the cost of SD burner. Recordable media is still $3.00 plus. None of that bodes well for BlueRay's future. DVD killed VHS because it was a much easier format to use and most people never used the VHS decks to record anyway.
I suspect that DVD recoders have failed because they don't record in 16x9 and copy protection prevent them from being used to backup DVD's.
Originally Posted by redwudz
However the number of people with tvs that can take full advantage of 1080p blurays aren't that high and it would take a lot longer for the next gen of hdtv gen 2 to take stock for holographic discs to be worth the cost.
Its a two edge sword with the resolution game. That's why its taken so long for bluray to grab hold. Not enough people adopted hdtv early on so the "need" for high resolution wasn't there. Once the bluray/hddvd war was over that helped spur the advancement of hdtv entrenchment.
You would need a similar surge for the next leap in resolution before it would overtake bluray. The platform has to be there for the media to make sense.
As for bluray killing dvd, nope. Dvd will just fade away eventually. It will never disappear in my opinion. THe optical medium for dvd is so pervasive now at the very least computer programs will keep dvds kicking for a long time. I'm sure you can still get computer equipment that put installation programs on CD-ROM for that matter.Donatello - The Shredder? Michelangelo - Maybe all that hardware is for making coleslaw?
Sure, companies are still distributing software on CDs. (I mean actual boxed retail packages, not just AOL. ) Are they still selling (commercial) VCDs, anywhere? I know people are still making them, and still using CD-Rs to store data, but that's probably a given.If cameras add ten pounds, why would people want to eat them?
I think you guy's need to google back to the turn of the 21st century and check the prices for dvd's, dvd players, and big screen sd tv's. I think you'll be surprised. I payed $389.00 for the first ever dvd burner (a pioneer A04 I believe). My LG bluray super drive was $289.00. A good name brand quality stand alone dvd player was between $200.00 and $300 dollars. My sd 36" sony was close to $2200.00. You can get a good 46"-50" hd tv for that now. And don't forget DVD blank media wasn't 10 cents a disk either. I think you'll find that going to High def from dvd is cheaper than it was to go from vhs to dvd. The viewing experiance is greater as well
But you should remember that 1999 prices don't equal 2010 prices because of inflation. Though I agree that generally prices VS value is fairly good at present. (I also had a A04 and paid close to $500 for it. )
And VCDs are still very common in some areas of Asia where DVD media and hardware are fairly expensive, along with a general lack of higher resolution display devices. If your display device is around 20" or less, you won't see much, if hardly any difference between HD and SD. I'm fortunate enough to have a projector and a 12' screen and it's obvious to me. But even BD's aren't HD compared to a movie theater's versions of HD.
To put things into perspective, I paid $1100 for my first VCR. A JVC top loader, It was one of the first 4 head models with a hard wire remote. I don't think that equates to a $100 bluray even with inflation. Bluray players are only a couple of years old and have come down to 33% of the initial price. I don't think VCRs dropped that quickly.I love children, girl children... about 16-40
I am 56, and I think our age group do not necessarily benefit from HD/Blu Ray.
I see the quality of content going down, its all GUI and Gothic stuff , crash bang wallop.
I only bought a HDTV for the size, 46", not the picture quality, even my vcr through rca plugs looks good on it, to my eyes, and yes I have had them tested recently !PAL/NTSC problem solver.
USED TO BE A UK Equipment owner., NOW FINISHED WITH VHS CONVERSIONS-THANKS
Well, I'm 59 and I love HD and I wear glasses. I have a 50" in my living room and a 40" in my bedroom and a bluray player and an HD DVD player (DOH!!!), plus a bluray burner in my 'puter. Don't get me wrong, standard DVDs upconverted look great, but good, real HD is awesome.I love children, girl children... about 16-40
The real question should be...will you replace your DVD collection with Blu-ray?
I know the studios want us to but so far I only own four Blu-ray discs(two were free), my HD DVD collection is eleven times larger(DOH). Most of the studios catalog will never come out on Blu-ray because it isn't cost effective.