Will BLURAY kill DVD?

[lordhutt]

It killed it for me years ago. I see no reason to ever buy a SD DVD again... except, if you have no choice. I have purchased a few sports training dvd's over the last few years where it was the only version available and quality isn't as important anyway. But I will never buy a movie on DVD again. But actually optical is technically dead for me in a way. I rip all my DVD's (BD or SD) to hard drives and watch everything on a HTPC or a media player.
So in reality if I could go to Amazon and pay for a 50 gig download of a movie then even Blu Ray would already be dead me!!!

Same thing with CD's... rip and play from phone or mp3 players or on HTPC. However even with download's the CD still isn't completely dead for me yet and wont be until I can download lossless audio. I still buy the CD and rip to both flac and mp3.

[freebird73717]

I hate grave diggers but i came across this in a search and i just could not resist the urge!!

I saw this thread in my email and thought "who dug up this old thread?" I laughed when I saw it was Noahtuck! I was expecting some 1 or 2 post newbie.

It took me two years but I finally got an HDtv. Love it. Watch HD tv using an outside antenna. Amazing quality.

Still don't think Bluray will kill DVD though. Sure something else will eventually. But I don't think it will be bluray. But who knows..
Maybe "if ever" was a little strong wording.

[yoda313]

I do agree streaming will be the big push now.

However two parts of me resist.

1 - the need to have relatively expensive broadband internet to do video (even just standard def with little to no buffering issues).

2 - the collector part of me who wants to physically hold something in my hands to say "yes I own this title".

I do have things I have bought on itunes and amazon. But I don't like having to fire up a pc to watch something i should be able to without it. Though now the newer models of wdtv and roku support amazon at least. I wouldn't want to buy the newest version AND an apple tv for both. (I have a wdtv gen 1 that doesn't have streaming support).

I do buy games and some tv shows on my xbox 360. But I download those to my xbox so I don't have to have a net connection to watch them.

If all streaming devices came with a few tb's of harddrive storage for OFFLINE viewing in the event of internet outages or slowdowns than I'd be more willing to accept it. I don't like the idea of just having "access" to something rather than having the actual title physically on some local device be it optical or on a harddrive of some type.

Though of course they'd still need online authentication but if they could do it with minimal verification periods than that would be the better way to go.

And cds will never disappear completely just like dvds won't disappear completely. The niche audio snobs have kept records (yes actual records) in the stores - at least at Best Buy. So cds and dvds will still hang around.

For me I buy bluray when its a movie I really want in good quality. What is helping now is having the bluray/dvd combo packs. I have a ps3 and a pc with a bdrom so I can still watch it if my ps3 were to go belly up. THough of course now with bluray players under a 100.00 at sale times getting a settop replacement is not the 600.00 investment it used to be.

But I like to have a dvd version to watch in another room since I don't want to lug my ps3 to another tv if I want to watch it somewhere else. Of course I do have anydvdhd so I can rip and then reencode it to dvd if I so choose but on my dual core pc that is a half day commitment at minimum to get a decent bitrate on either dual or single layer dvd and of course 448khz dolby 5.1.

[fritzi93]

Yeah, I laughed too when I saw it was Noahtuck that dug this up.

It's timely though. I've noticed Blu-Ray players going pretty cheap at Wal-Mart, and more of them on the shelves than DVD players. And a good selection of reasonably priced BD titles, with lots of DVDs in the bargain bins. So that's what the bottom of the market is looking like.

It's price, as often predicted earlier in this thread, along with the fact that most folks now have HDTVs. Many of them are over 32", beyond which the visual quality difference is considerable between BDs and DVDs.

[Moontrash]

I actually think I responded to this thread back when it was first posted...but i'm too lazy to go back and look ..here's probably what I said previously

I doubt it...BR titles for old titles and rare ones come very slowly or not at all...dvd's will still be relevant for a while. They(production houses) go for immediate cash flow so they release the newer stuff via BR. I have a cheap Philips dvd player and it up-converts a decently encoded dvd to a great picture on my vizio. Personally I'm indifferent though. If I see a film I would keep on BR then I'd have it over the dvd title without issue but as it is, my tastes are older films and there just isn't a great selection of em. Got to Warner's site and look at the Warner Archive selection. They have released hundreds of old rare films on dvd but how many of em do you see making it to BR?...almost 0. Dvd's will still be around.

BR players are getting cheaper but a lot of em are just junk. They don't last. I can't tell you how many I've read about being returned because of problems. Seems like unless you buy an OPPO and watch a lot of BR or dvd titles, you'll be returning that player before the warranty ends or a little after it.

maybe media players are the answer

[MOVIEGEEK]

Ok I'll join this ancient thread too.

Looking at recent sales Blu-ray is gaining more of the pie but I doubt it will ever surpass DVD sales worldwide. I still buy more DVD's than BD because they have a larger selection, some movies will never be transferred to Blu-ray. In 2011 digital music and ebooks outsold physical CD's and books in the US, the real question is "when will streaming kill discs"?

[lordhutt]

"when will streaming kill discs"?

Even though like I said in my previous post that I don't use disks anymore. All HTPC and media players. I still like to own a piece of physical property for my money. So I still buy CD's and Blu Rays but then instantly rip them and store them away. Even without that factor streaming quality isnt even close to Blu Ray and no HD audio so it isnt going to kill it anytime soon for me. Plus there is always the possibility of the web connection being interrupted which is unacceptable... I never have to worry about that when I have the movie on a HDD.

[Moontrash]

I'm a quality junkie so streaming is out for me...my isp speeds arent that great so i could only get the basic streaming from Netflix and not the hd/high quality. I cant do that with a nice 1080p tv. Streaming from a media player is a different a story. 1:1 quality from a hdd or a thumb drive though HDMI...can't beat that

It's all about selection so BR's will be playing catch up for a while. As long as VHS is gone and I don't have to revisit that, I won't complain about BR or dvd.

[yoda313]

streaming quality isnt even close to Blu Ray and no HD audio so it isnt going to kill it anytime soon for me.

I don't know if i buy that streaming quality isn't close to bluray. Its very good to my eye. things like vudu hd at least and even zune videos on the xbox 360. It can look very good but maybe not exactly bluray quality yet.

It does not have hd audio that I am aware but at least the streaming services like vudu and zune on the xbox 360 now have 5.1 audio it is at least acceptable audio quality to me. No surround is a big no-no for me if I'm renting online. I want at least 5.1 for it. I don't have an hd audio receiver so plain 5.1 is just fine. The dolby digital plus that is now offered on vudu and elsewhere is a good option.

I still like to own a piece of physical property for my money.

That is basically what I was saying in my earlier post. Even if I rip a cd to my zune mp3 player I still want to be able to go back to a hard copy to start over should I need. And also I still occasionally like to look at album art or cover art in the case of movies. The booklets can be an interesting read if its for a box set or a special edition of something.

[edDV]

Some observations on Blu-Ray players and discs...

Price
I said way back in 2008 that player prices need to get below $100, Blu-Ray movies below $10 and blank BDR media around $1/layer before I was interested. All this has happened over the last 18 months if you shop carefully. Also, good BDR writers like LG go on sale for under $70.

Netflix the "killer app"...
Before Netflix (also Youtube etc), there was no compelling reason to replace a DVD player with Blu-Ray. Netflix changed that perception. I watch Netflix on my Blu-Ray players more than BR/DVD discs or DLNA. Netflix has become a late night alternative to TV.

BDR 25GB (22GB actually) for $1 a disc...
DVDR-5 discs at 4.3GB have always been too small. DVDR-9 (double layer) discs remain too expensive for general use. Fry's has semi-regular sales of Kodak (Philips media) or Optodigital (HL-DT-ST? media) BDR discs for around $1/ea. I've had no coasters yet. 22GB is a good size to store HD broadcast (MPeg2) or handbrake encoded (h.264) movies/shows. So far playback quality has been better than DLNA (even with CAT6 cabling). Easier to play off BDR discs in the home theater/bedroom than from deep DLNA menus.

In summary, Blu-Ray players have become affordable and a convenient way to play media or watch Netflix. For example in the bedroom, I can play rental BR/DVD discs, watch Netflix, play from DLNA or USB stick all from one player.

[poisondeathray]

I don't know if i buy that streaming quality isn't close to bluray. Its very good to my eye. things like vudu hd at least and even zune videos on the xbox 360. It can look very good but maybe not exactly bluray quality yet.

You sure about that? They use about 15-20% the bitrate of an average retail blu-ray disc

But I guess it also depends on your setup, equipment, how far you are sitting, quality perceptions, etc... but it's quite impossible to be "close" in quality at that bitrate (at least for a well made blu-ray .... there have been some releases that were horrible, worst than SD upscales...)

[yoda313]

You sure about that?

You'll note I did say "to my eye".

And I guess I should note this viewing is not on a 1080p set so that may be part of it. (32" westinghouse 1080i with a ps3 set to 1080i and a xbox 360 set to 720p or sometimes 1360x768 via vga cable).

[netmask56]

I think ultimately the studios will kill DVD to force consumers on to Blu ray with it's more difficult copy protection regime. Not that that will actually work.

[edDV]

I think ultimately the studios will kill DVD to force consumers on to Blu ray with it's more difficult copy protection regime. Not that that will actually work.

Production costs for Blu-Ray are now almost the same as DVD. Lots of room for price drop.

Official position of the Blu-ray Disc Association
http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/#bluray_replace_dvd

[Constant Gardener]

Both DVD and Blu-Ray are vulnerable to the Imperial Library on Trantor - or, more likely, the earthly version. It's only a matter of time until every book, tune, and video is available, for free or otherwise, from large libraries. Access via internet. There are some minor details to work out, such as compensating the creators, but once such libraries are available, there's no need for individual discs, media arrays, or personal libraries. May that day come soon.

[edDV]

Yeah but for the next five years, a combination of hard disk and BDR storage is convenient for organizing local content. As said, Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc. will take more of the load for popular content. The problem now is you can't count on these services to maintain a stable archive. Titles come and go. For example, Netflix will lose the Stars Play library next week.

[jman98]

Blu-ray movies are US$10 in China at mom-and pop stores. Same movie in DVD is one dollar.
Two dollars will buy you a DVD that is marked Blu-ray. (see screenshot).
Blu-ray logo makes DVDs sell better.

Is it really DVD (with the usual VIDEO_TS and AUDIO_TS directories) or could it be BluRay format (BDMV and CERTIFICATE directories) on DVD-9?

[yoda313]

What I don't want is to be forced to have to have an internet connection fast enough to watch a video for everything.

I would be able to live with dial up internet again (if it still exists??) if I had to really cut back on expenses for basics like email and the occasional item that can only be bought online.

What I don't want with a pure digital distribution future is the hidden tax of having to have a fast enough internet connection just to watch the newest movie release. I still want the option of a SINGLE ONE TIME PURCHASE in order to watch or listen to something as many times as I want.

Yes I know you still need electricity to watch or listen to it but you only have the single purchase of the physical media to enjoy the content as many times as you want.

I do know that once you "buy" a movie online via itunes or amazon or whatever its yours and you don't pay each time to watch it again. BUT the hidden cost of course is your internet connection. Music you can stream pretty easily on even the slowest connection and is probably passable on a dialup connection (again if you can still do dialup in the US I don't know if its been totally phased off because I haven't checked in a long time).

But unless the government steps in and mandates low cost high speed internet or gives tax credits or something I don't want to be in a position where if I want to watch or listen to the latest media that I have to have a internet feed in order to do it. (sorry for the long run on sentence there).

I want to be able to play the media landlocked. I want to have the option where if I was suddenly dropped on a deserted island with a power generator that would last indefinitely and a food supply I could listen to or watch every piece of media I own forever without having to log in to a server somewhere and phone home to say I'm here.

I know this is some kind of weird paradox of mine since I do have online accounts and I do buy from amazon and itunes. I also buy digital content on my xbox 360 and ps3. But I don't want it to be ALL streaming and I don't want it to be locked away on some server where if I don't have a internet connection with some minimum speed that I wouldn't be able to use what I already paid for.

There is no perfect answer for the consumer and hollywood. I just hope like most things in life it isn't all or nothing. There have to be other avenues for people in different situations and different stages of life.

[fritzi93]

Both DVD and Blu-Ray are vulnerable to the Imperial Library on Trantor - or, more likely, the earthly version.

Ooh, an Asimov allusion, good one.

To go a little OT, I'd absolutely love to see the Foundation books put on the screen, if done right. With a 3D Blu-Ray version as well.

[El Heggunte]

To go a little OT, I'd absolutely love to see the Foundation books put on the screen, if done right. With a 3D Blu-Ray version as well.

I'd like to see a properly-done 3-season TV show instead, no fancy 3D trickery, thanks.

But I'm afraid an enterprise like that would be probably cancelled in the middle of the first season already.

[El Heggunte]

Both DVD and Blu-Ray are vulnerable to the Imperial Library on Trantor - or, more likely, the earthly version. It's only a matter of time until every book, tune, and video is available, for free or otherwise, from large libraries. Access via internet. There are some minor details to work out, such as compensating the creators, but once such libraries are available, there's no need for individual discs, media arrays, or personal libraries. May that day come soon.

I think there are MANY and HUGE details to work out.

Generally it's a bad idea to foresee the future as a kind of linear extension to the present.

A "gold-like future" may never happen at all.

As John Sheridan said, "A lot (of unexpected things) can happen in a minute".

[yoda313]

Well I know I'm being ignored here in this thread but I do have one idea that might work for those who don't have high speed internet or those who have to switch to lower speeds.

What about an internet kiosk like a redbox kiosk?

It could be one of two or three ways. It could authenticate files you already have. Just jack in and get the ok and your good for another month or half year or something.

Or it could be a download terminal. It could have all of the latest movies on a harddrive server setup and you just pop in a credit card or even cash and transfer them to a usb stick or harddrive. Now of course these would be high drm stuff that would be impervious (in hollywoods mind of course) to hacking or dubbing or whatever. But that way you could get a standard def or preferably high def copy with surround sound.

This would be better than those self deleting discs they tried awhile back. You know the ones that would evaporate or whatever and stop working after a day or so of use.

I think they were trying to work on a disc burning station with those special drmd dvdrs awhile back weren't they? They being the "industry" in general. I know any drm can eventually be broken but if its not easy the average joe or jane won't do it.

I think some kind of authentication stand or download terminal would be a good alternative if they went all digital down the road. You could make it out like itunes or amazon and just search the screen for the movie or show you want. Pop in your account info and plug in your harddrive or usb stick or whatever and download (well in this case I guess its an "upload" to your storage unit) the movie or show or whatever.

The other thing could be they could have heavily encrypted harddrives designed just for this thing. It could be a usb 3 or thunderbolt or whatever connection for quick transfers. Than you could plug it in and in relatively no time at all have the encrypted movie file that you can play at your will. If they made it so that you had to go back to a terminal and reauthenticate either once a month or twice a year or something I think that could be doable if they were to totally phase out media discs.

As long as you had the full rights to redownload a purchased copy x number of times in case of a corrupted drive then that would be good. I know you can't exactly go back and say give me a new disc mine got scratched to hell 6 months later. But if you had some window available to get another download on the same drive or a newly authenticated replacement drive you wouldn't have to spend another 10.00 or 20.00 to buy it again. Now obviously you couldn't do this forever a limit would have to be placed but so long as you had a backup copy in case of failure that would be good.


These are just some ideas of how a digital distribution future could work if we did go discless. I'm just thinking there must still be a large percentage of people without a high speed connection. That would mean a lot of customers who couldn't get a new movie or music or whatever if there wasn't a way to get a physical version of it somehow.


Think of it similar to the wifi hotspots they have for ebook downloads at barnesnoble and the like. Just have it dedicated where this is where you go to buy the movies on your authorized device.

Hmm I wonder if I should try getting a patent on any of these ideas???

[edDV]

Well I know I'm being ignored here in this thread but I do have one idea that might work for those who don't have high speed internet or those who have to switch to lower speeds.

What about an internet kiosk like a redbox kiosk?

I live in a semi-rural area and can see the various strategies playing out. Around here you need to be within about 3 miles of a town to have cable (or natural gas for that matter) option. Outside that distance, you are on DirectTV or Dish for TV and propane for heat. OTA TV options vary by terrain. I'm fortunate to be on the last street with cable* access and within one mile to an ADSL remote terminal so I have a choice of internet provider.

The people out from here can't get cable or DSL. They are the prime targets for the Dish-Blockbuster or RedBox strategies. Both are popular around here. If you don't have high speed internet, no NetFlix for you. Each town still has an operating Blockbuster. Every major grocery has a RedBox, Blockbuster or Safeway proprietary DVD/Blu-Ray Kiosk. Blockbuster allows a subscriber to reserve or special order a Kiosk disc rather than deal with local demand. Seems to me they are doing well for their market.

Such is life in the forest.


* within the ring, cable reception is first class. Better than nearby big cities. Fiber to last mile, >800MHz bandwidth.

[yoda313]

If you don't have high speed internet, no NetFlix for you.

Exactly my point. Netflix streaming is great if you have the speed. If you don't you have to do the mailing.

One other thing I don't think works well for streaming is bonus content. It should be easy enough to do the audio commentary on a stream. But it seems virtually non existent to do background material on internet streaming sites. All they have is the movie or tv show and no background material. Not even a 5 minute featurette.

That still seems to be the domain of the disc world. It should be easy enough to offer up trailers and interviews and making-of specials all under the individual movie. But nobody seems to do it.

Now on zune marketplace on the xbox 360 they do have see it first (I think its called that) mini backgrounds on new movies. But they are not exhaustive and I don't believe they carry anything on older movies or even ones that are a few years old.

It would seem for a pure video junkie total streaming only has a long way to go. For the video purists true hd quality and hd audio would be necessary. Also for the ones that want to dive into the movie or show background material or at the very least an audio commentary track (if available) should be offered.

[usually_quiet]

If you don't have high speed internet, no NetFlix for you.

Exactly my point. Netflix streaming is great if you have the speed. If you don't you have to do the mailing.

One other thing I don't think works well for streaming is bonus content. It should be easy enough to do the audio commentary on a stream. But it seems virtually non existent to do background material on internet streaming sites. All they have is the movie or tv show and no background material. Not even a 5 minute featurette.

That still seems to be the domain of the disc world. It should be easy enough to offer up trailers and interviews and making-of specials all under the individual movie. But nobody seems to do it.

Now on zune marketplace on the xbox 360 they do have see it first (I think its called that) mini backgrounds on new movies. But they are not exhaustive and I don't believe they carry anything on older movies or even ones that are a few years old.

It would seem for a pure video junkie total streaming only has a long way to go. For the video purists true hd quality and hd audio would be necessary. Also for the ones that want to dive into the movie or show background material or at the very least an audio commentary track (if available) should be offered.

Bonus material may not be included on rental edition DVDs either, and a lot of people are not interested in watching it anyway.

The people out from here can't get cable or DSL. They are the prime targets for the Dish-Blockbuster or RedBox strategies. Both are popular around here. If you don't have high speed internet, no NetFlix for you. Each town still has an operating Blockbuster. Every major grocery has a RedBox, Blockbuster or Safeway proprietary DVD/Blu-Ray Kiosk. Blockbuster allows a subscriber to reserve or special order a Kiosk disc rather than deal with local demand. Seems to me they are doing well for their market.

Speaking of Blockbuster kiosks, I received an email from NCR recently, and they have sold their Blockbuster kiosk DVD rental business to Redbox.

[Chopmeister]

Holy gravedigging Batman! But I will chime in none the less.

Something will inevitably kill DVD, but not sure if it will be Blu Ray before the next big thing comes along. There are a couple of weak points in BR compared to DVD that hinder my adoption.

1. Multi Zone. Multi Zone DVD players are common (they are the rule rather than the exception in this market, it's hard not to buy one). Multi Zone Blu Ray players are still pretty scarce and, while there are a few now, they tend to be the cheapie budget ones rather than the quality brands. Our local market (pricing, range of titles, release window etc) is appallingly badly served. Until I can order disks from the US, UK or wherever and know for sure they will play regardless of Zone A, B or whatever, I'm not that interested.

2. Recordability. I have two hard drive DVD recorders. Love them. While players are getting reasonable, the pricing on BR recorders is ludicrous, there are few models, and they only have SD inputs (tho they can record HD broadcast signals). When recorders get around $NZ600 ($US 480), and preferably have HD inputs (don't care if they respect HDCP, I can deal with that) I'm not that interested.

For a while DVD was "the" format of choice for movies. It erased VHS and, in its heyday pre-streaming and USB sticks etc, was untouchable in terms of price/quality.

I suspect that long before BR replaces DVD, an HTPC-like solution will have come to the fore and BR will be a largely irrelevant format (except, maybe, for archival backup), and just one of many competing transport mediums rather than "the" movie medium.

HTPCs increasingly offer many attractions over a locked down BR player. Zoning worries addressable, trailers etc skippable, streamable HD media from Netflix and BBC iPlayer etc (from all around the world with a VPN), recordings streamable around a home network, buckets of back-end storage easily done, integration of film and music libraries, and HD recording possible (ie google HDFury). Some material might be fed from a BR, but that will only be if it's convenient, the rest will come from streaming, OTA broadcast, capturing from cable box, DVD, or whatever.

At the moment HTPCs are the stuff of nerds (and I still haven't built mine - looks like a Christmas project and I have started accumulating the bits). However, where we lead, the consumers may follow. Teenagers etc are already typically comfortable with this stuff.

[edDV]

I've got several computers capable of recording analog/digital video and a networked NAS providing central storage. Still I find a Blu-ray player convenient at the "sit back" viewing locations (living room, home theater, bedrooms) primarily for watching rental discs and streaming Netflix. A great benefit of Netflix not discussed so far is access to foreign content. Subtitle reading demands full attention and a sit back viewing environment. Now that Netflix is expanding into South America and Europe, I hope they make more foreign language content available to the USA market.

Although I can access the central NAS library from any location, others prefer playing a DVD or Blu-Ray so I usually burn them a disc to watch. Most people have figured out how to access Netflix streaming but not the DLNA.

[MOVIEGEEK]

Yoda313 wrote:

I think they were trying to work on a disc burning station with those special drmd dvdrs awhile back weren't they? They being the "industry" in general. I know any drm can eventually be broken but if its not easy the average joe or jane won't do it.

Toshiba and NCR were working on a kiosk where you could download movies on a flash device, that was one reason they came out with SDXC cards. It's been two years and I haven't heard anything since about the kiosks, I think NCR bailed because they sold their BB kiosks to Redbox.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/kiosk/six-questions-mod-systems%E2%80%99-anthony-bay-18743

[jman98]

Now that Netflix is expanding into South America and Europe, I hope they make more foreign language content available to the USA market.

I would be in favor of this but my experience is that over the past few years Netflix has actually made LESS foreign content available to the US market. When I first subscribed to Netflix they had a ton of Russian language movies. Basically if Ruscico was putting it out, Netflix got it. Now they have (as far as I can tell) permanently stopped carrying many of the classic Ruscico reissues they used to carry.

[yoda313]

Bonus material may not be included on rental edition DVDs either, and a lot of people are not interested in watching it anyway.

True but I want the option available if we were forced into a digital distribution only future.

oshiba and NCR were working on a kiosk where you could download movies on a flash device, that was one reason they came out with SDXC cards. It's been two years and I haven't heard anything since about the kiosks, I think NCR bailed because they sold their BB kiosks to Redbox.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/kio...hony-bay-18743

Interesting. Thanks for the post.