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  1. Member
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    The greatest lesson I learned by owning a retail computer store for years was that I am totally unable to predict what wonderful great products people will ignore and what total crap they will buy. So I can't even guess how the BD acceptance / domination will go.

    I certainly won't go to BD. When my 46" Sony rear projection failed again and I was tired of taking it apart and fixing it - I replaced it with a Panasonic 50" 1080p. I had been in the habit of taking off my glasses and relaxing in my recliner to watch a movie. With the HDTV, the picture was so much better, it bothered me to watch it without glasses. Then I moved from analog cable to satellite digital / HD. The picture quality is better than my eyes now, even with glasses.

    As one consumer, I resent the way BD was forced at me and that will cause me to delay even more ever moving to BD.
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    Originally Posted by karhooi
    Definitely, we saw how CD kills cassette, DVD kills VHS, BR kills DVD
    CD offered a real benefit to the consumer over cassette...

    DVD offered a real benefit to the consumer over VHS...

    BR offers a real benefit to the movie industry over DVD...

    DVD was one of the fastest new technologies to be adopted by the general consumer. CD took a bit of time because it was new and expensive but when it took off, it took off. BR does not offer a significant enough benefit over DVD for the general consumer to pitch what they have invested in and buy it all again...

    BR will go down in history the same as the Laser Video Disc...a bridge between real technologies that the general consumer is willing to invest in.

    So the real question is: What's the next big seller?
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    For those of us outside North America there is also the big issue with regioning of discs. Compared to the rest of the world, the North American market has a great depth of titles, keen pricing, and a good release window. That's why many people order DVDs from Amazon in the US, major retailers (in this country) parallel import some discs, and it is virtually impossible to actually buy a DVD player (other than computer drives) that hasn't been multi-zoned by the retailer. Even the authorised dealers of major companies (Sony et al) sell the players that way.

    Contrast this with the lamentable situation for Blu Ray. Multi region players aren't widely available, and that limits content availability and pricing severely.

    There is also the noxious DRM to consider. I have been transferring my collection (purchased DVDs, recorded DVDs and even some old VHS that isn't readily available on disc) to computer drives, have put a media player in my living room. Eventually I want to network everything - with all my music and films on a great big NAS box and players in the living room, spare room, bedroom etc. DVD DRM is easily compromised, BD DRM isn't yet.

    Finally, there is also the issue of recordability. DVD recorders are widely available, reasonably priced, and work well. Blu Ray recorders are available, but DRMed to hell and back (eg they can record OTA TV in HD to their hard drives, but downscale it to SD if you burn a disc), and cost a small fortune.

    It's more than just the issue of player price. When multi region players are available, the DRM is compromised so that I can actually use the content they want me to pay for, and recorders work properly, then Blu Ray may have a chance of supplanting DVD.
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  4. Originally Posted by Chopmeister
    For those of us outside North America there is also the big issue with regioning of discs. Compared to the rest of the world, the North American market has a great depth of titles, keen pricing, and a good release window. That's why many people order DVDs from Amazon in the US, major retailers (in this country) parallel import some discs, and it is virtually impossible to actually buy a DVD player (other than computer drives) that hasn't been multi-zoned by the retailer. Even the authorised dealers of major companies (Sony et al) sell the players that way.

    Contrast this with the lamentable situation for Blu Ray. Multi region players aren't widely available, and that limits content availability and pricing severely.

    There is also the noxious DRM to consider. I have been transferring my collection (purchased DVDs, recorded DVDs and even some old VHS that isn't readily available on disc) to computer drives, have put a media player in my living room. Eventually I want to network everything - with all my music and films on a great big NAS box and players in the living room, spare room, bedroom etc. DVD DRM is easily compromised, BD DRM isn't yet.

    Finally, there is also the issue of recordability. DVD recorders are widely available, reasonably priced, and work well. Blu Ray recorders are available, but DRMed to hell and back (eg they can record OTA TV in HD to their hard drives, but downscale it to SD if you burn a disc), and cost a small fortune.

    It's more than just the issue of player price. When multi region players are available, the DRM is compromised so that I can actually use the content they want me to pay for, and recorders work properly, then Blu Ray may have a chance of supplanting DVD.
    As the owner of a Blu-ray player that can play more than just Region A Blu-ray releases I am not all that happy with the title selection in North America. In fact, I am ordering many discs from Amazon UK. Amazon UK is selling discs that are unavailable on Amazon US and/or the prices are lower even after the shipping costs are factored in! I recently ordered a Blu-ray Collector's Edition of a movie that was apparently available in Region A at one time but is now discontinued. It's still readily available in Region B, however. Another Blu-ray that I ordered is a recent release from December of 2009. The Region A release from Amazon US was $23 before shipping while my ordering the same exact Blu-ray from Amazon UK came out to $16 including having it shipped to North America! I've found this with a good deal of movies recently. I'll definitely take advantage of the purchasing method that, to me, is better especially when I'm doing it all on the up-and-up/legitimately

    Nonetheless, region locking for Blu-ray is a problem. Many player manufacturers have essentially been strong-armed into not even allowing users to do something that makes the player region-free for SD DVD let alone Blu-ray. Thankfully there are ways around this for Blu-ray players including higher end ones.
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    Originally Posted by lordhutt
    Originally Posted by lordsmurf
    Most Blu-rays I review of non-new movies actually look WORSE than the DVD, because the noise and flicker is not hidden from the MPEG-2 GOP encoding. It looks like shit, to be blunt about it. New movies shot digitally look fine, but that's really it.
    I will admit I was disappointed a while back when I bought Predator on BD....It was not the HD quality I was hoping for. However, I did not think it looked WORSE, and have yet to see one that does.
    Care to share a few examples?
    Major League
    Ferris Bueller's Day Off
    The Postman

    All 3 have grain and flickering that looks like shit. The DVD MPEG versions are almost as sharp, but lack the noise.
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  6. Video Restorer lordsmurf's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by johns0
    Originally Posted by karhooi
    Definitely, we saw how CD kills cassette, DVD kills VHS, BR kills DVD
    BeeR kills dvd
    Lawnmower beats all of them, I win!
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    Originally Posted by karhooi
    Definitely, we saw how CD kills cassette, DVD kills VHS, BR kills DVD
    Were that logic absolutely true, then laserdisc would have killed VHS, at least in terms of movie sales. It did not. VHS was not abandoned until 1) prices for DVD players and movies became comparable to VHS units and movies; and 2) manufacturers stopped making VCRs and VHS movies. BR will indeed kill DVD when: 1) the prices justify it (starting to happen) and 2) current DVD players begin to wear out and need replacing. It's a gradual process.

    I just bought a new DVD player this year -- an upconverting unit with HDMI output and Divx/Xvid capability. I purposely chose it over BR mainly because of the great price. It may be several years before it dies and needs replacing.
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  8. Prices on Blu-Ray -- on sale -- have been fantastic. I must have picked up 20+ movies between Thanksgiving and New Year's around the $9.99-$14.99 mark.

    Those who are video & audio-philes will take Blu-Ray over DVD every time. There is simply no reason not to. As someone else mentioned, first-week pricing on most Blu-Ray movies is barely more than a few dollars over the DVD release. "Regular" prices are still pretty bad, but even Blu-Ray gets cut-rate pricing sales every now and then.

    The picture quality difference between the two formats is staggering. I couldn't EVER go back to buying DVDs, and I imagine I am not alone. I personally don't know anyone who hasn't at least made the leap to HDTV by now. That said, DVDs remain cheap & easy to produce, so they will likely remain alive for quite a long time, but their dominance will die in the coming years.
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  9. Going Mad TheFamilyMan's Avatar
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    Bluray will not kill DVD unless the majority of buying public decides this fate (i.e. no one buys the DVD releases anymore). As a sidebar to 'may the best technology win', CD has successfully survived SACD, DVD-A which are both argueably better. But in the end digital downloads will be (has become?) the downfall of pressed CDs and I imagine that in the developed world downloads/streaming will eventually kill off most physical video media too (that is if the internet infrastructure ever gets there).

    As for Bluray vs. DVD visual quality on a worthy HD set, there is no comparsion IMO. Sure, the best mastered DVD upscaled will look better than a poorly mastered BD, but against a decently mastered BD the quality difference becomes laughable.
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  10. DVD players were $700 back in 1995 in Japan and I almost bought one (almost bought a 400 compact disc carousel player for $800 too then but luckily didn't). Instead I waited till summer 1997 to buy one in America and it was $350 for a sony dvd player. DVD players didn't start taking off till 1999/2000 when they came down to $200 then couple years later $100 to $150 range. Even back in these days I remember people saying wow DD 5.1 surround sound and they were still selling mono tvs. In other words mass market consumers could give a flying hoot.

    Bluray discs need to stay at the $10 to $15 which they will be in a couple years time it's inevitable. Still I think last year in America only 10% had an HDTV. Now I bet it's 15 to 20% perhaps. Even then though. I think bluray even though came out in 2006 is still in the very early stages and masses won't jump at it for 3 to 5 years. I think were are back in 1999 where dvds were.

    Blurays to take off will need a few things to converge and the masses like over 50% have different upgrade cycles but masses need HDTV, surround sound system and need a few of their others to either break or become obsolete. Best migration strategy is get consumers to buy blurays with dvds included as they're just beginning to do.

    I learned my lesson from svcds and dvds not to backup on CDs and DVDs but rather keep everything on NAS. I believe way more practical to store your movies and/or timeshift them on NAS. x264 mpeg4 is better at a higher resolution and sometimes even smaller than mpeg 2 dvd is. Gone are the days too with CCE 9 pass VBR encoding as the Constant Quality one pass is just as good if not better than 2 pass VBR with the new x264.

    As for the comments as to DVD looks better to some I believe you believe it just not true. It just shows how utterly pointless HD is to many which is actually the case. I know millionaries with tens of thousands of HD/audio equipment and they care. Other millionaires with so so setup and HD isn't much of a concern to them..they're content. Also know a couple who have a 50 inch 10 year old TV rear projection that only shows blue and green and the red is missing. They've been watching TV like that for last 2 years. Do they care? Not really which just goes to show you people value content way more than they value quality of the experience.

    So in a nutshell bluray is at the very beginning of the stages and Sony can still can screw over blurays if they keep requiring the masses to update their firmware for their bd players in the name of copy protection or even make older bd players obsolete with newer bd discs since average computer joe guy will do it but I know the average joe will not and just take their BD player back to Costco.
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    But what is the next big thing?

    Video On Demand?

    Video On Plastic Disc?

    Video by mail?

    Video in Stores?

    Video by [insert genius here]?

    Who and what is the next big player...
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  12. Member edDV's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Video Head
    But what is the next big thing?

    Video On Demand?

    Video On Plastic Disc?

    Video by mail?

    Video in Stores?

    Video by [insert genius here]?

    Who and what is the next big player...
    Joe average always compromises quality for price and ease of use. Netflix type live streaming will eventually beat out cable VOD. Cable will then offer a Netflix type library at Netflix volume prices. Only first month releases will maintain full VOD prices.

    The newer Korean Blu-Ray players (Samsung and LG) accept Netflix streams. Soon HD will be the norm.
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    On-demand and solid-state are next. Say "bye bye" to discs entirely.
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  14. Originally Posted by edDV
    Joe average always compromises quality for price and ease of use. Netflix type live streaming will eventually beat out cable VOD.
    Agreed. Why would you want to own a bunch of discs if you can watch anything you want, any time you want, via Netflix for $9 a month? Obviously, the selection isn't that wide now, and it will cost more if you need more than one stream, but that is where we are heading. That is why all the cable providers are so hot to institute monthly bandwidth caps (they blame it on all those evil P2P'ers to make it sound better). Why would you spend $5 to VOD a movie when you can watch as many movies as you want for $9/month?
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  15. The Old One SatStorm's Avatar
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    BluRay players will - eventually - replace DVD standalone players. It is a matter of time.

    The BD format probably won't replace DVD Video any time soon
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    Its the buzz and the future (so we are told) i think its inevitable that bluray will kill off DVD in terms of film format its just a matter of time, although im sure that it'll take over 5 years.
    I guess there are independant film makers/studios that won't be able to afford the HD equipment unless the production cost of bluray comes down, although i guess there nothing stopping them from publishing SD on a bluray but for them economically that will only happen if they are forced to ie when bluray has dominated most people living rooms and if players wern't backwards compatible or publishing costs were equal to that of dvd, anyways these film would only represnt a very small minority of sales.

    For potalable rewritable data storage i think solid state flash drives and small potable hard drives have have almost killed of cd-r and dvd-r and to be honest even when rewritable bluray and burners comes down in price i can't see anyone using for them potable storage when usb is so much quicker and few so devices are without usb imputs eg dvd/bluray player, hifi, tv, consoles and just about every pc and mac. Cds, dvds will still be used for storage and archived because they take up less space than a flash drive and are more secure than a server.

    I think the idea of digital media soon making games disks, dvd movies and bluray movies obsolete is rubbish. People will always want to own a physical copy of what they have payed for. Companys will never stop producing games/film disk because its just data and will only prove to bring down another barrier between legit media and pirated media. If you think about the only difference between the two is the physical form and if you ask 90% of people why the buy dvds, cds and games instead of downloading them they'll reply "its because i like to own the copy" I'd imagine in very few cases it'll to support the industry that rips them off.
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    Just saw news on TV (NHK Japan) which cited statistics about the Blue-Ray purchases. It basically said that 72% of the new LCD TV's are bought in combination with BlueRay/HDD recorder. Till the end of the year this will be the standard!
    There are still DVD-RW/HDD recorders sold at a lower prices and some people buy to replace their older sets that doesn't have digital terrestrial and/or digital BS (satellite) tuners.
    The majority is going for Blue-Ray though. Not that they need it but because it's the future and it's an investment. Also more people have HD video cams or still cams that shoot in high definition.
    Many stunning quality programs too to record of air.

    Have you heard that Toshiba jumps the Blue-Ray wagon too? First recorders will be out next month - just to confirm my words that people prefer to buy the newer technology (Toshiba was selling very good machines but DVD/HDD only).

    In one thing I agree - North America is not the whole world...

    But to answer the question - Blue-Ray will dominate in very near future but wont kill the DVD format. We will be able still to record and watch the old good DVDs for a long, long time!
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    The rest of the world is not Japan. There, you have a "latest gadget" buying culture that is not found on the other side of the Pacific. After all, the US never had a VCD craze.
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  19. Originally Posted by filmboss80
    The rest of the world is not Japan. There, you have a "latest gadget" buying culture that is not found on the other side of the Pacific. After all, the US never had a VCD craze.
    I don't agree, VCD was(is) big in the rest of Asia but not Japan.
    We in North America are more like Japan when it comes to electronics(we both are NTSC), many items that start in Japan are popular here such as the Walkman and Blu-ray. There are plenty of us in the west that must have the "latest gadget".
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    VCD was not enduring in Japan like the rest of Asia (dumped in favor of the "next big thing") but it was popular when first rolled out.

    NHK also came out with analog HDTV in the late '80s.
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    Originally Posted by SatStorm
    BluRay players will - eventually - replace DVD standalone players. It is a matter of time.
    The BD format probably won't replace DVD Video any time soon
    Hmmmmm...... maybe if they are low-cost kitted from China. I could see that. Had not given it much thought.

    But they'd still be "DVD players" to most folks. The BD feature would mostly go unused.
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    Originally Posted by spunge85
    down another barrier between legit media and pirated media. If you think about the only difference between the two is the physical form and if you ask 90% of people why the buy dvds, cds and games instead of downloading them they'll reply "its because i like to own the copy" I'd imagine in very few cases it'll to support the industry that rips them off.
    Unfortunately, the large DVR/TiVo userbase disagrees with you. Capture cards and DVD recorders are being replaced with PVR devices, largely aimed at temp recording. Streaming options are taking foot, too, be it freebie Youtube/Hulu, or for-pay iTunes/Amazon/Netflix.

    Not that I like it myself.

    Solid-state will replace discs, and in later years many standard hard drives. Optics and mechanics are just too fragile. SSD is already replacing all other storage mediums in professional photography and video.

    Originally Posted by spunge85
    i guess there nothing stopping them from publishing SD on a bluray
    I guess you don't actually make anything yourself. You have to have new software, new hardware, and new skills. That happens slow, much slower when the economy sucks.
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    I'll have to go along with others that BD is only an interim step. Flash memory is becoming so cheap these days. It will continue to fall. All solid state recording devices will be the future. No more moving parts at all. It's going that way now for portable devices, so the home units will be next. BD penetration will never top more than 50% IMO. Some of my friends figure it'll stop at 25% before the next big thing hits. We'll see. At this point I'm not an early BD adopter. Too many machines, too much research for me and all lacking to some extent for what I want. My latest find is that a lot of players with MKV playback support won't play files larger than 2GB. Firmware error it seems. Also problems with NTSF formatted drives incompatability makes them a "no sale" in my book. I might have to wait a bit longer to upgrade my household. I don't relish spending big bucks to get less than I have now for both recordability and playback....

    Don't get me started on streaming or downloadable content. Impossible to stream HD content where I am...for that matter, there is no Netflix alternative here either. The machines capable of doing so have been crippled and may not be upgradeable. How would you like some company telling you that your 3 month old BD player is now obsolete and to get new features, you will have to buy an newer, more expensive player? I'll pass thanks....
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    Regular DVD sales probably outweigh the sales on bluray products. first off, I think Bluray disc are just too expensive unless they are sale. DVD's sometimes can be as low as $8.99 (ref: harry potter series) and usually only go to $21.95 if the movie has been out for awhile. Of course, if it includes a digital copy, the dvd may be at $31. And of course, if the DVD is a brand spanking new DVD release, yes it might have a bluray price on it. But generally DVDs are not terribly expensive. Also for a good DVD player, you only have to pay an average of $80--one's with all the bells and whistles including xvid, jpeg,dvd+-r, DVD +-rw, dvd-ram, divx 6 Ultra, and wma. Bluray units have gone down significantly but not to the point where it is a steal. DVD's are a steal. Blurays can be sometimes found at $175 but are not super common. Plus, for the bluray to have all the bells and whistles I mentioned I think would be considered a rareity. HD DVD is another beast that has tagged along with blu-rays. But I do not think their sales are terribly high. I think blu-ray movies are just not super affordable. I have never seen a blu-ray in a bargain bag or on-sale at borders below $15.


    Plus, the gap between the technology is too fast paced. Yeah, we could easily jump to DVD. It was much finer than VHS or S-VHS. The VCD/SVCD never really took off in sales. They kind of did in Jappan or in your local chinatown under your Karoke genre. The VCD was kind of in the late 80's, maybe earlier. Laser disc were common in the United States. But even while laserdisc were out, VHS was killing laser disc-too big plus sometimes you had to flip the darn thing. But we had been on VHS for more than 30 years, so a jump to DVD was plausible--small and affordable. Plus, with the state of the economy, I do not think people are going to go out of their way to buy a blu-ray player.

    Once prices go down on HDTVs and the price for the bluray disc average at $15, then that is when blu-ray will kill DVD sales. But for that to happen may not happen for another 15 years. The only way to even out the economy is send more men out ot Iraq and be killed or have someone die in prison or just be in prison and be worth more and that can help the economy--the scary notion. Or the us could stop spending sooooooo much money on war. The US will be in debt for a long time. And someone might have to aid the united states or make a merger with another country to gain stability. I am not sure if we would want to merge with the UK because we fought to get our independence. Maybe we can join Canada. Who knows.


    anyway, blu-ray will not kill dvd sales for another decade unless something totally radical happens.




    So my answer is: Bluray will not kill DVD sales.
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  25. BluRay is the future but only after the prices come down on the equipment and movies just like any other thing created in the past it always starts off with jacked up prices. DVD will be around for awhile and even after BluRay is the most common equipment used because so many will still have DVD's but most will have upgraded to a BluRay player (if not a writer for people like us) that can play both and by then everyone will just be buying new movies in BluRay anyways. Also the actual life of a DVD is not infinity. The disk and data on it will outlive a cd-rom but not forever. But to answer simply.. YES, BluRay will surely replace DVD and it wont be long, everyone is already buying HD TV's and LCD's for a reason because they want HD quality just like their HD TV shows are mostly now. Players are really not that expensive now but will lower a bit and DVD players will be what you find at GoodWill and pawn shops that nobody wants.
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  26. Member bendixG15's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by edDV View Post
    Joe average always compromises quality for price and ease of use.................
    That says it all...........

    That was the case for audio and will be for video.
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  27. The main determining factor will be the variety of content, which I don't see so far on BD. I bought a dvd player when the format was new, and at that time there were only THREE movies in the dvd section of the store that I wanted. I was wondering if I made the wrong decision, but within a year every distributor who could get their hands on the home video rights to anything were jumping on dvd. There were discs from Something Weird, Anchor Bay, you name it; every obscure horror or exploitation movie from my youth starting popping up somewhere.

    I haven't seen that happening with BD. So far it's all mainstream Hollywood, new and old. A company like Something Weird isn't going to pop for a new transfer to BD when their market is such a small niche anyway, so we're not getting the obscure stuff in BD. Yet when dvd had been out for as long as BD has now, there were already hundreds, if not thousands, of oddball releases, since dvd was such a quantum leap that everybody got onboard. BD is an improvement, certainly, but not the quantum leap of vhs to dvd. Nobody wanted a clunky vhs copy of a movie if they could get it in the snazzy new disc format. The leap isn't that exciting this time.

    I'm thinking of buying a BD player as an addition to my home theater, so that I can watch what's available in the better format. But I'm sure the vast majority of the discs I play in it will always be dvd. I'm not expecting Blu-ray discs of "Incredibly Strange Creatures Who Stopped Living and Became Mixed Up Zombies" or "Awakening of the Beast" or "Confessions of a Psycho Cat" anytime soon. BD is a nice addition to what's currently available, but will not be a replacement until "weirdos" like me can get our movie fix through it. The PLAYERS will almost certainly replace standard dvd players, as they're backwards compatible and coming down in price, but I think dvd content will still be bought and sold for a long time. At least I hope so; I'd hate to have nothing available except mainstream Hollywood. But I have to go along with those who think both dvd and blu-ray will go away and be replaced by streaming, solid state, etc. The future of home video has no moving parts.
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    Originally Posted by filmboss80 View Post
    Originally Posted by karhooi
    Definitely, we saw how CD kills cassette, DVD kills VHS, BR kills DVD
    Were that logic absolutely true, then laserdisc would have killed VHS, at least in terms of movie sales. It did not. VHS was not abandoned until 1) prices for DVD players and movies became comparable to VHS units and movies; and 2) manufacturers stopped making VCRs and VHS movies. BR will indeed kill DVD when: 1) the prices justify it (starting to happen) and 2) current DVD players begin to wear out and need replacing. It's a gradual process.

    I just bought a new DVD player this year -- an upconverting unit with HDMI output and Divx/Xvid capability. I purposely chose it over BR mainly because of the great price. It may be several years before it dies and needs replacing.
    The other reason Laserdisc didn't kill VHS, at least here, was recordability. Neither Laserdisc or VHS/Betamax players (I am old enough to remember when they sold tape players that couldn't record!) sold well at all. Once recorders came out, and people could record & timeshift TV, sales took off. Certainly in our house that was the kicker argument to get my parents to shell out what was then a large sum of money - dad could come home and watch the recorded evening news when he got home. There were only two TV channels and one (6pm) evening news bulletin back in those days.........
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  29. ah the joys of only 2 channels of high quality output, now look at it.
    PAL/NTSC problem solver.
    USED TO BE A UK Equipment owner., NOW FINISHED WITH VHS CONVERSIONS-THANKS
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  30. The sheer force of the whine party here is enough to convince me that Blu-Ray will likely increase it's upward trajectory faster than ever. You should be ashamed to come to this site and be so openly disparaging of the highest quality consumer format ever offered.

    The biggest gripe many 'in the know' have with Blu-Ray is the HDCP nonsense. Most consumers using a set-top player won't ever notice this. Those using a PC can just shell out for AnyDVDHD (yes, I know it is expensive, but it is a virtual wonder-product and a must have, IMO, for anyone that want's to remove the nuisance that is HDCP and PUOs).

    Solid state? Yeah -- eventually... maybe... but right now it isn't cheap enough and there is ZERO momentum for it to happen right now. Flash memory, cheap as it is, isn't cheaper or easier to produce than a BR disc, not by a long shot. The music industry tried this already -- it went nowhere.

    Cable/FiOS? Still plagued by LOW BIT rates & high compression of the source material. I have yet to see an explosion in an HD movie on cable (on a 70" TV) where there wasn't very noticeable blockiness. Fast moving movies are also a real problem for cable's high compression. The most stark example of this is the newer Speed Racer movie. Very fast shots, pans, etc. None of which look good on cable. I bought the Blu-Ray of this (at a cheap price) JUST to compare it.

    VoD (Video on demand) / Netflix (downloads)? Has all the problems of HD over cable + it remains difficult to navigate (i.e. no chapters, no extras, etc).

    Straight up downloading (i.e. purchases ala iTunes & the like)? Not likely to take off with Joe-sixpack until his TV has it's own harddrive or the installed base of devices like the WD TV Live takes off. Given that these are still in the realm of geek-toys, I don't see this happening anytime soon, certainly not over the relative ease of popping in a disc.

    Sticking with DVD? You'll last a while, no doubt. Just like those that said HDTV wasn't worth it. However, the next generation won't stand for the low quality of DVD as the prevalence of 46"+ HDTVs continues.

    Especially in this poor economy, low price Blu-Ray movies are seemingly commonplace. Every Best Buy ad I get has plenty of $9.99-$14.99 Blu-Rays on sale.
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