The future of media

[herbapou]

I think the movie studios need to lighten up and changes the way they sell movies.
With high speed internet, IPTV, we will soon be able to rent movies or watch TV over the internet and bypass media’s altogether. We will also want to be able to take away movies to our mobile devices (laptop, iphone, ipod, mediaPC,).

So, what they should do, is allow us to buy a movie once and for all by registering an account online and then be able to “own” the movie in whatever format we want. Buying the same movie in VHS, DVD, and then BR is retarded. How many times do we have to pay for the same movie?

In the future we will see the death of media’s, what will be the next media after BR’s? nothing, everything will be done online. Dual layer BR’s can hold 50 gigs, so what? I can buy 64 gigs USB keys for 50$ (will be cheaper soon). I can buy a 1000 gigs USB drive for 125$. A 1 TB drive can hold 400 High definition movies (2 gigs h264 re-encode). No need to store your BR/DvD in the living room and no risk of the media getting damage by manipulation.

We are seeing an emerging market; cheap devices that act like a media PC.
- Devices you can plug a USBHD into and watch the content on your TV.
- Wireless network devices that allow you to remotely control your media Pc and stream video into your TV.
- Network storage devices that allow to server media files over the network, so you don’t even need a media PC.

Not good news for your local renting video store and cable/satellite companies. Well at least the cable/sat co. are going to make money has internet providers.

[mh2360]

So, what they should do, is allow us to buy a movie once and for all by registering an account online and then be able to “own” the movie in whatever format we want. Buying the same movie in VHS, DVD, and then BR is retarded. How many times do we have to pay for the same movie?

Very unlikely, the studios make billions from people updating their movie collections to the latest formats, and they would likely nothing better than for you to buy a different copy of a movie for every device you own.

These companies exist primarily to make money, entertaining you is secondary...

[Wile_E]

I think the movie studios need to lighten up and changes the way they sell movies.
With high speed internet, IPTV, we will soon be able to rent movies or watch TV over the internet and bypass media’s altogether. We will also want to be able to take away movies to our mobile devices (laptop, iphone, ipod, mediaPC,).

We already can rent movies online. XBOX360/PS3/Apple TV - All have HD 720p movie rentals and purchases. Also Netflix streaming but not very good. Netflix already has plans to stop it's DVD distribution and only do streaming. BR may be the last "disc" format. Next up, some sort of proprietary "USB" memory keys, you will be able to find in stores.

If they dont keep some sort of physical product going, all these stores like Blockbuster will go out of business.

[gadgetguy]

If they dont keep some sort of physical product going, all these stores like Blockbuster will go out of business.

I'm not sure that the studios would perceive that as a negative.

[jagabo]

If you could watch any movie ever made, or listen to any song every recorded, any time and anywhere you wanted, there was no DRM so you could easily place-shift to a portable device or whatever, for say $50/month (most of you already pay that for your cable TV subscription), why would you want to own anything? That is where we are going.

[Wile_E]

It may not be negative to studios, but it sure wouldn't help the economy. People also like to "own" physical stuff, and most people like to get out of the house. So I think there will always be movie theaters and some sort of physical media. At least in the near future.

[stiltman]

If you could watch any movie ever made, or listen to any song every recorded, any time and anywhere you wanted, there was no DRM so you could easily place-shift to a portable device or whatever, for say $50/month (most of you already pay that for your cable TV subscription), why would you want to own anything? That is where we are going.

I tend to agree. However I think it will be the major distributors/Studios that will become the only players in the market. Each one will want their own piece of the pie. We'll be paying $$ a month to each one. Then it will become a monopoly, governments will regulate, rebelions will startup and we'll only have V to save us

[herbapou]

If you could watch any movie ever made, or listen to any song every recorded, any time and anywhere you wanted, there was no DRM so you could easily place-shift to a portable device or whatever, for say $50/month (most of you already pay that for your cable TV subscription), why would you want to own anything? That is where we are going.

This has potential. I guess they can distribute $$ depending on whats watch the most. To more popular a title is, the more the renting companie has to pay the studio for it.

[jntaylor63]

Here's my 2 cents.

Speaking as a Supply Chain Consultant, Movie and Record companies making physical media is very costly when you could have a "download and burn" model.

Not only do the studios have to manufacture the media, but its has to be stored, shipped and one day returned back from the retail market.

If we had a download and burn (or whatever back-up you want) you have:

1.) No more shipping costs.
2.) No more manufacturing costs.
3.) No more costly returns on a "poor seller". The New K-Fed album comes to mind.

In a download model, people could download straight to their home PC and archive. Or better yet, consumers go a kiosk at Best Buy and select the albums / movies they want and it is burned onto a disc. Maybe even print out some simple cover art, inserts, whatever. With this model:

1.) Companies only sell what you buy, no more wasted pressings that will one day get put into a bargain bin and/or destroyed. Its now a 1 to 1 manufacture / sell model.
2.) Retail still gets to have it walk in traffic.
3.) Media Manufactures still have business selling recordable media.
4.) Content Companies can now "afford" to sell old catalog recordings or low volume / demand items.
5.) Reduced retail space.

But the downside to this would be:

1.) Quality. It needs to be lossess audio and HD movie that is at least the size of a BD-R to be on par with CD's and Blu-Rays.
2.) Cost of running servers and Kiosks.
3.) Format. People have different gear.

It can be done. To be honest, the biggest thing holding it back is the Content companies themselves. Change is scary and I think they feel that they are somehow losing "control".

[jntaylor63]

btw herbapou,

Where do you buy 64G usb memory at 50$. Is that in USD?

[Number Six]

btw herbapou,

Where do you buy 64G usb memory at 50$. Is that in USD?

I second this question - right now 32G USB Keys are just getting to this price. I would buy several 64G keys for $50 right now.

[filmboss80]

Technically, a variety of content delivery options are already available, but the industry will follow market demand. The majority of paying viewers tend to be most comfortable with DVD discs...right now, anyway. Unlike most of us who frequent this site, the average movie viewer doesn't want to mess with adding hard drives, burning their own discs, or dealing with various codecs for different media devices. This situation is changing, but not in leaps and bounds. The viewing habits of the largest demographic segments are what drives the primary delivery method.

My business is on the distribution end, and we will go with any technology and delivery method that will give us the largest return on investment. It's as simple as that.

[usually_quiet]

Video rental stores are already pretty much history where I live. Redbox vending machines are plentiful, but there's only one rental store left in a 10-mile radius. Two years ago there were 6.

However, I expect cable/satellite providers to be around for a long while. Plenty of people still enjoy watching episodic TV shown on a regular weekly schedule. There's a social aspect to it and it provides something to look forward to.

There is one significant problem to be overcome to make Internet downloads as universally accessible as distribution via physical media, OTA or satellite. Rural areas are still limited to dial-up internet service in many cases. It's not cost effective to provide broadband service to sparsely populated areas, and I don't expect wireless high-speed Internet to be available there for some time, for the same reason. Unless the government decides to really get serious about making high-speed Internet service available to all, a lot of people are going to be left out under your scenario.

Then there's the copy protection issue. Content providers do everthing they can to discourage casual copying. For that reason, once content is loaded onto a particular device, I don't think it will be easy to move it to another. An additional download will be needed, and I expect each will be monitized separately.

[jagabo]

Plenty of people still enjoy watching episodic TV shown on a regular weekly schedule. There's a social aspect to it and it provides something to look forward to.

New shows can still be released for streaming on a regular schedule.

There is one significant problem to be overcome to make Internet downloads as universally accessible as distribution via physical media, OTA or satellite. Rural areas are still limited to dial-up internet service in many cases. It's not cost effective to provide broadband service to sparsely populated areas

Rural areas will still have OTA and satellite. There may still be some form of physical media but it will not be the primary distribution method. You can still buy records if you look hard but they are no longer the main distribution method for music. In the future I'm talking about, 10 to 20 years from now (although it's starting already with Netflix, Hulu, etc.) those rural media consumers will have to look harder for their physical media. They will more likely subscribe to broadcast or satellite IP delivery to their PVR (this already exists in a limited form for satellite). So, in addition to the live broadcasts, they will have overnight download for view later.

Then there's the copy protection issue. Content providers do everthing they can to discourage casual copying. For that reason, once content is loaded onto a particular device, I don't think it will be easy to move it to another. An additional download will be needed, and I expect each will be monitized separately.

The producers will eventually realize that once there is a universal streaming service that is deep, fully indexed and cross-referenced, easy to search, and easy to use there is no longer any reason to use DRM (which they already know doesn't really work anyway). The service they provide will be so massively useful that there is little incentive for the average person to pirate or hoard. Think imdb.com or allmusic.com with all the material available for streaming. Of course there will always be an underground pirate market but it will be small enough that it's tolerated.