The Vista Death Watch

[ultradouche]

That's business in a free market. Everyone is free to vote with their wallet.

I completely agree w/ the other things you said -- and am not here to flame/aggravate/etc; I'm an XP user -- but let's not pretend for a moment that the o/s market maps out to anything close to free market. Microsoft has a virtual monopoly, plain and simple, and people are not "free" to vote with their wallets as long as platform-specific software & the like is closed and doesn't work cross-platform w/o hitches.

Any semblance of free market efficiency is predicated on metric buttloads of competition, no barriers to entry/exit... perfect information, zero transaction costs... *takes deep breath* etc, etc, etc.

/again, not trying to be a jackazz, not picking on you
//just trying to keep people informed re: economics
///it's my education, my job, my training, my expertise - and I always feel obligated to say something

[JohnnyMalaria]

Interesting.

What makes Microsoft maintain their premiere position in the markets in spite of clear alternatives from large competitors?

By markets plural, I mean the corporate server market where Sun are a very major player (Unix) and the consumer desktop market where Apple are very visible.

I don't believe Microsoft can be described as a monopoly in the first market. In 2005, shares of revenue from computers sold for server applications were split approx 50:50 Windows:Unix.

For the consumer market, although Apple have a small share, they are still a very large company with a pervasive consumer awareness. They use the same hardware technology as other PC vendors. They undertake a lot of consumer advertising - certainly much more than Microsoft do. They aren't "shut out" of the market. It's not as if they are a small "mom-and-pop" business building PCs in the kitchen (they were once!).

In spite of Apple's continuing barrage of advertising of their "cool" product line (a subjective term if ever there was one), the consumer still prefers the Windows-based options. The consumer *does* have the choice - they *can* vote with their wallets. Walk into your nearest Best Buy and almost the first thing you (are forced to) see is a huge Apple display - and it is usually barren of people (possibly because like most other manufacturers' offerings in such stores you can't actually *use* them to see what they are about). If Apple are trying to sell their PCs based on aesthetic looks only (the only explanation I can offer for the locked-down systems on display), they are missing a *huge* trick. Not everyone wants or cares about the appearance of the hardware - they want it to do its job. It's like buying a <insert name of some alleged ultracool hotrod car> without being able to even look at the engine. It might be a 1200cc 3-cylinder for all you know that, even worse, has to be sent back to the manufacturer to get a new battery(!) Apple need to focus more effort on promoting the function and less on the form.

[mats.hogberg]

Interesting. What makes Microsoft maintain their premiere position in the markets in spite of clear alternatives from large competitors?

Interesting indeed! What "large competitors" do you see for the title of PC desktop computer OS champ? If I could run Leopard on this box, have it run all my apps I've got (without reinstalling preferrably), I'd uninstall XP right this minute. I can't. I've settled for Ubuntu for now. Those Windows only apps I miss, Wine handles most of 'em.

/Mats

[Ai Haibara]

Walk into your nearest Best Buy and almost the first thing you (are forced to) see is a huge Apple display - and it is usually barren of people (possibly because like most other manufacturers' offerings in such stores you can't actually *use* them to see what they are about).

Actually, I'd always had the impression Best Buy didn't really care about supporting Apple computers, training staff to answer questions about it, etc. Out of the two Best Buys near me (in northern California), only one ever had any sort of Apple section (apart from the iPod), and that slowly dwindled down to a single laptop 'display' before disappearing altogether. And that was about one and a half to two years ago, or more (I wasn't really keeping track ).

Personally, I haven't really had many problems with Vista (though I do have other systems to fall back upon if anything does go wrong), other than the constant Windows Search/indexing churning of the drive, it'd be nice to have another GB of RAM in the tower, not to mention a good tweaking utility - most of the ones I've seen don't really seem to do much. Why Microsoft hasn't published a fully Vista-ready version of TweakUI, I don't know...

[SCDVD]

Walk into your nearest Best Buy and almost the first thing you (are forced to) see is a huge Apple display - and it is usually barren of people (possibly because like most other manufacturers' offerings in such stores you can't actually *use* them to see what they are about).

Actually, I'd always had the impression Best Buy didn't really care about supporting Apple computers, training staff to answer questions about it, etc. Out of the two Best Buys near me (in northern California), only one ever had any sort of Apple section (apart from the iPod), and that slowly dwindled down to a single laptop 'display' before disappearing altogether. And that was about one and a half to two years ago, or more (I wasn't really keeping track )

Best Buy, like most retailers wants to sell what people want to buy. They are not driven by missionary or fanboy zeal. JohnnyMaleria's comment about the Apple display being barren of people says it all. Retail display space in a store is valuable. Why should a store dedicate precious display space that is "barren of people".

[JohnnyMalaria]

Retail display space in a store is valuable. Why should a store dedicate precious display space that is "barren of people".

It is Apple, though, who pay Best Buy for premium display space. Which begs the question why do Apple dedicate precious money to attract...nobody?

[ultradouche]

By markets plural, I mean the corporate server market

Maybe I missed the particular post to which you're referring; I was under the impression that most people on here (and on the rest of the planet) are running home/desktop/workstation/etc versions of most everything, judging by their signatures and the like.

[Nelson37]

Apple's presence in my market has been ZERO for several years. No display whatsoever at BestBuy or Circuit City, no retailer at all, only service tech moved to Tampa several years ago.
Don't tell me that's cause Apples don't break, I get the occasional call for one. They're just not present in large numbers in my market.

There is no viable alternative to Microsoft in the desktop marketplace. There is an alternative to Vista, we call it XP.

Debating what the market will do is a pointless exercise, trying to predict it can be fun but risky to invest in.

Resistance to Vista higher than anything I have seen since ME. Consumers who know next to nothing about computers are aware that there is "something wrong" with Vista. Namely, their apps don't run. Transparent, 3-d icons are something absolutely no one I have talked to cares about at all.

IMO this is much like the Ford Edsel. Most call that car a failure, actually it sold reasonably well. It just did not live up to the market-dominating hype it was released with. The market did not wholeheartedly embrace it, despite all the "improvements".

[oldandinthe way]

Its hard to assess Apple and its position in the market without creating religious conflict.

Apple users are phenomenally loyal, in spite of being repeatedly and frequently screwed by Apple.

They also exhibit the strong brand loyalties to other manufacturers - SONY particularly.

Apple needs to promote their products and create the image of "cool" and "superiority" because in the absence of reinforcement their users might be forced to confront the realities of software unavailability, forced hardware obsolescence and other negatives of their Apple commitment.

Apple supporters think nothing of sugggesting adding the cost of Windows software to the already overpriced Apple hardware to combat the software deficit as long as they are told their O/S is superior. And point to features like a built-in webcam to justify the high hardware price. (USB webcams selling for under $20 at just about any Big Box store this weekend).

And if you actually know any Apple owners, you also know how they are in limited occupations. Like newspaper reporter, or politician.

[SCDVD]

As I see it there are two types of "hardcore" Apple users. The first is the user who is rooted in application software that they are familiar with and the cost and learning curve frustration of changing platforms doesn't make sense. A good example of this is prepress applications. It would be hard to justify a platform switch in an established prepress shop. This isn't platform bias, it's just a common sense business decision. Apple has had a dominant position in the prepress applications for a long time. There would need to be very compelling reasons for a prepress shop to change platforms. I don't think there are any.

The second type is the user who has deep seated social problems and because of this they are very vulnerable to the "fanboy social mutant disease." They believe anything they hear that is in line with their bias. Since objectivity and thinking on their own has nothing to do with their position, it is a waste of time to interact with them in any sort of discussion; you won't change their thinking because "thinking" has nothing to do with their position. You might as well try to convince a three year old child of a hardened criminal that their daddy is no good. You will not succeed.

[edDV]

As I see it there are two types of "hardcore" Apple users. The first is the user who is rooted in application software that they are familiar with and the cost and learning curve frustration of changing platforms doesn't make sense. A good example of this is prepress applications. It would be hard to justify a platform switch in an established prepress shop. This isn't platform bias, it's just a common sense business decision. Apple has had a dominant position in the prepress applications for a long time. There would need to be very compelling reasons for a prepress shop to change platforms. I don't think there are any.

The second type is the user who has deep seated social problems and because of this they are very vulnerable to the "fanboy social mutant disease." They believe anything they hear that is in line with their bias. Since objectivity and thinking on their own has nothing to do with their position, it is a waste of time to interact with them in any sort of discussion; you won't change their thinking because "thinking" has nothing to do with their position. You might as well try to convince a three year old child of a hardened criminal that their daddy is no good. You will not succeed.

Even for prepress, Windows NT pushed many Macs out as Adobe and others offered identical software on both platforms. Accountants and IT departments saw the value of supporting the same Windows NT platform used elsewhere in the organization. Then Macs fell behind in performance and market share shifted dramatically to PC just as it did with AVID at the high end of the video business.

Since Mac moved to Intel, the performance issue has equalized.

[rkr1958]

Did Microsoft's Security Focus Hurt Vista Adoption?
Microsoft's emphasis on improvements to security features in Windows Vista may have undermined business adoption of the OS, as many business and enterprise customers are still holding off on upgrading to the OS nearly a year after its release to them.

Microsoft spent a good deal of time and money to ensure Vista's security after Windows XP and applications running on it proved susceptible to devastating worms like Blaster, Slammer and MyDoom. Though Microsoft released Windows XP Service Pack 2 to remedy some vulnerabilities, the company decided that security would be a top priority for the next major Windows release, said George Stathakopoulos, general manager of Microsoft's Response and Product Centers.

"The security part of Vista was talked about a lot because it was a primary concern all over the world," he said.

But in retrospect, those close to the company and even Microsoft have acknowledged recently that security has not proved to be important enough to encourage businesses to upgrade to Vista.

full story

[edDV]

Businesses are always slow to jump on a new OS. They need the technology to settle down SP1/SP2 etc., train their people and plan a multi-year transition. Deployment needs to match capital spending cycles. At the cubicle level many business PC's are leased. Upgrade will wait for the lease expiration.

The main security issues with Windows affect the consumer more than the enterprise. On balance, I think Microsoft was wise to focus on consumer security issues where they are vulnerable to Mac.

[oldandinthe way]

Businesses are always slow to jump on a new OS. They need the technology to settle down SP1/SP2 etc., train their people and plan a multi-year transition. Deployment needs to match capital spending cycles. At the cubicle level many business PC's are leased. Upgrade will wait for the lease expiration.

The highest costs associated for a larger business for their PCs are support and training. This is why they delay deploying new hardware and software systems. This is also why they will pay more for a computer sytem, purchased or leased. One of the key ways in which computer manufacturers secure corporate business is to guarantee product availability for a period which exceeds by several times product availability in the consumer marketplace. Manufacturers like Dell and HP will still ship corporate clients the machines they shipped a year, 18 months or two years ago. They will probably continue to ship some XP systems after the official end of XP OEM sales.

Indeed corporate clients will qualify new hardware and operating systems for many months prior to deployment and will develop a deployment plan which provides adequate training for the product and its use. Vista will see greater corporate adoption. It will probably be through the acquisition of new computers so that the hardware upgrade issues will be minimal. And software compatibility issues are part of what the qualification process deals with.

[rkr1958]

Businesses are always slow to jump on a new OS. They need the technology to settle down SP1/SP2 etc., train their people and plan a multi-year transition. Deployment needs to match capital spending cycles. At the cubicle level many business PC's are leased. Upgrade will wait for the lease expiration.

The main security issues with Windows affect the consumer more than the enterprise. On balance, I think Microsoft was wise to focus on consumer security issues where they are vulnerable to Mac.

... He said that Microsoft staffers are pleased in general with Vista's security improvements, but they acknowledge that "the consumer reaction was ho-hum." ...
Hansen also said that Microsoft traded general OS usability to add some of Vista's security features, such as User Account Control (UAC), and is "feeling pressure from Apple" to provide a more intuitive and user-friendly OS. ...
Still, Microsoft made a crucial mistake in pushing and marketing something that many feel should be an inherent part of an operating system, he said. By telling customers a feature of the OS was not right in a previous version and promoting that it's been improved in the new one, "you're abusing the trust of your customer if you expect them to buy an upgrade to fix your mistake," McAtee said.

[RLT69]

The second type is the user who has deep seated social problems and because of this they are very vulnerable to the "fanboy social mutant disease." They believe anything they hear that is in line with their bias.

Hello Pot, this is Kettle, you're black

I think for the vast majority of us, we don't care. We use what's appropriate for the job. We use what we can afford. We use what we like. That's the point, it's about CHOICE. So what if Apple pokes fun at Microsoft. Who hasn't? Christ tell me you didn't have one of those moments pictured in the commercial. That's what's cute about it. But we are also smart enough to know it's a commercial. That all OSes have problems of one sort or another.

The problem is people are so wrapped up in their world view, they can't handle change. You propose a Windows user use Linux, and the peanut gallery hoots and hollers. They can't possible imagine why anyone would want to try something different, something foreign.

That's the whole point of a computer, doing something different, trying new things, finding new ways. If this mindset existed 30 years ago the TRS-80 would not have stood a chance. "Why do you want to play with that?" "Why do you want to program?" "How gross."

How have we become so closed minded? Apple, Linux, Microsoft, Unix makes no difference. Use what you want.

:P

[oldandinthe way]

I think for the vast majority of us, we don't care. We use what's appropriate for the job. We use what we can afford. We use what we like. That's the point, it's about CHOICE. So what if Apple pokes fun at Microsoft. Who hasn't? Christ tell me you didn't have one of those moments pictured in the commercial. That's what's cute about it. But we are also smart enough to know it's a commercial. That all OSes have problems of one sort or another.

Unfortunately CHOICE is not always a good thing. Its only a good thing if you make the correct decision.

If there were only one PC operating system to choose from and it worked in most situations, that would be better in all of the situations in which it worked. Common understanding, standard training, lots and lots of applications software to choose from.

But that would be a monopoly, and would carry the risk that a monopolist would raise prices and take advantage of a captive market. The consumer would be hurt.

Today we have two clear competitors to the Windows family of O/S. Linux which is free but the least approachable by the general public and Mac O/S systems which survive primarily on the basis of marketing. Independant of Mac's technical merits which can be argued. Their advertising is misleading, disingenuous and sometimes downright lies. They get away with this because there is no single maker of the PC and their fan base loves them and wants to believe in their superiority.

Do you really believe the Mac is a more powerful audio and video system than PCs? Only some manufacturer's PCs. Only roll your own PCs with out of the box XP? Vista?

Microsoft reacts to this Apple crap and gets accused of anti-trust violations. Bundle a media player because the Mac does - get the RealPlayer folks to cry foul. Bundle a web browser - predator.

[Midzuki]

oldandinthe way wrote:

Apple needs to promote their products and create the image of "cool" and "superiority"

I know that many people calculate "Apple"+"cool"+"superior" = "gay".

*******

[RLT69]

Do you really believe the Mac is a more powerful audio and video system than PCs? Only some manufacturer's PCs. Only roll your own PCs with out of the box XP? Vista?

Do you believe Microsoft does?

Isn't that the point - people choose for themselves.

Are you saying people are too dumb to think? People have weak and feeble minds that succumb to any marketing ad? You give too much credit to the influence that commercials have on people's buying habits.

Mac O/S systems which survive primarily on the basis of marketing. Independant of Mac's technical merits which can be argued. Their advertising is misleading, disingenuous and sometimes downright lies. They get away with this because there is no single maker of the PC and their fan base loves them and wants to believe in their superiority.

This is just plain silly. Are there any articles that can demonstrate that Mac survives primarily do to marketing? And then what about Microsoft? What about their marketing campaigns? Are you saying they don't mislead, they don't lie, they don't have fan base loves them and wants to believe in their superiority.

Again the same points you raised about Apple can be applied to Microsoft. Each company uses marketing to sell their product. Apple is no less truthful than Microsoft.

Do you get this worked up over car commercials? Drive GM do you get pissed at Ford; drive Toyota, get pissed at Honda; and everyone is pissed at BMW?

[JohnnyMalaria]

Do you get this worked up over car commercials? Drive GM do you get pissed at Ford; drive Toyota, get pissed at Honda; and everyone is pissed at BMW?

No - because they don't continually fall back on puerile, condescending advertising.

Apple's commercials are the only ones that make me mute the TV, change the channel and/or leave the room. And there are some really bad commercials out there. It's their attitude and devious marketing that distinguish them. They should get Billy Mays to do their slots - it would be more appropriate.

I'm sure that their hardware is as good as other manufacturers. I'm sure their software is as secure, reliable and productive as others. It's their damned indie-we're-so-cool shite that annoys people (well, at least me). And I bet that costs them customers.

[RLT69]

It's their damned indie-we're-so-cool shite that annoys people (well, at least me). And I bet that costs them customers.

It would be an interesting study to conduct; ask people how a commercial makes them feel, then ask them how likely they are to buy that product. However it's not likely to impact the buyer's decision. Why? Attitude does not always predict a persons actions.

There was an experiment that was conducted back in the early 1900s; a researcher wanted to test people's attitudes as it related to their actions. He sent out letters to several hotels inquiring if they would serve Chinese people; at the time there was great animosity towards the Chinese. Every letter he got back said they would not serve them. He then went out to all the hotels he contacted with companions who were Chinese and attempted to secure accomodations at the very places that said they would not provide them. All but one hotel served them.

There's lots of examples like that. So the fact that a commercial makes you mad, does not necessarily predict that you would not buy that product and vice versa, just because a commercial makes you happy does not necessarily make you want to buy that product.

I like Budweiser commercials. I think their product is crap and would never buy it. I still like the commercials.

[fritzi93]

I have a somewhat different reaction. I habitually hit the mute button for ALL adverts. But I often watch the Mac commercials. There's a guilty fascination to it. Yes, they're contemptible. The Mac kid is smarmy, the old Dell commercials (remember "Dude, you're getting a Dell!" (?)) don't hold a candle to them for irritation factor. And what about that weird nursery type music?

Gotta agree they're playing to an attitude of coolness/superiority.

[disturbed1]

If you want OS-independent and, by extension, CPU-independent games, you can kiss goodbye to performance and, most likely, pay more for them.

Don't care about Vista

But the above statement is wrong. Ever heard of, or played a version of Doom? Unreal? Quake? Even the newest Enemy Territory:Quake Wars is OpenGL. Most game devs are screaming for an open platform for developing games. They hate having to use this standard, then that standard, and yet another standard to write/publish their games. I'm not talking about Win/Lin/Mac, but the hardware consoles too. I doubt they would care if it was OpenGL or DirectX, as long as it was only one of them.

Playstation3 uses OpenGL.

A short blurb about OpenGL

The PlayStation 3 is based on open and publicly available application programming interfaces. Sony has selected several technologies and arranged several sublicensing agreements to create an advanced software development kit for developers.

Open standards for OpenGL, matrix algorithms, and scene data are specified by the Khronos Group, and are intended to work with nVidia's Cg programming language. Scene data are stored with COLLADA v1.4, an open, XML-based file format.[93] Rendering uses PSGL, a modified version of OpenGL ES 1.0 (OpenGL ES 2.0 compliant except for the use of Cg instead of GLSL), with extensions specifically aimed at the PS3.[94] Other specifications include OpenMAX, a collection of fast, cross-platform tools for general "media acceleration", such as matrix calculations, and OpenVG, for hardware-accelerated 2D vector graphics. These specifications have GPL, free for any use, and/or commercial implementations by third parties.

That's quite a few Open* words and GPL

[JohnnyMalaria]

Hmm.

OpenGL is, of course, open and implemented on the top three platforms. Are OpenGL games on Windows also on Mac? (Not a contentious question - I'm just curious.)

[guns1inger]

From what I see, the Apple ads do work up to a point. Yes, they are self-serving, dis-ingenuous, inaccurate and everything else that should have them taken off the air, and yes, they mainly preach to the converted, which is why Apple's market share hasn't risen above around 5%. But they also appeal to mostly women, and young men in 'the arts', both because of the cool factor, but mostly because of the scare mongering. They make windows out to be horribly unstable and scary to use, while the mac never breaks and always does what you want without any effort on your part. And of course, macs are used by that cool young guy - you know, the one in the last Die Hard movie - and windows PCs are used by fat, stupid geeks with no social skills. Thankfully most of the susceptible people either aren't able to purchase a machine anyway (too young and poor), or have sensible people to explain the way it really is.

Yes, I have had Windows machines crash, and I've had to upgrade hardware with new versions. I have also had OS X crash and trash whole machines, and I've had to replace whole macs much more regularly than PC's because they cannot be upgraded with the same freedom.

The more I use the mac, the emptier the experience seems to be. To me it is just the prettiest of the linux variations, but not much more. If you have a small number of applications to use, and that is all you ever need or use, then it is fine.

Probably the best thing about the shift to intel as a platform is that you can now by a sexy looking laptop at a reasonable price, wipe the OS that it ships with, and install Windows.

Someone posted earlier that if they could run leopard on their PC they would do so in an instant. That will never happen simply because Apple aren't big enough to create/maintain an OS that can work on more than a very limited hardware platform. You can have freedom, or you can have Apple.

[MOVIEGEEK]

Microsoft reacts to this Apple crap and gets accused of anti-trust violations. Bundle a media player because the Mac does - get the RealPlayer folks to cry foul. Bundle a web browser - predator.

Good point,I never understood how certain companies or "Unions" could win lawsuits against Microsoft.I mean it's not as if Windows prevents other software from being installed,if that were the case I could understand the lawsuits.

Back on topic:
I have no use or need for Vista,XP will be supported for another seven years.
By then Vista will be forgotten like Me is today.

[SCDVD]

Microsoft reacts to this Apple crap and gets accused of anti-trust violations. Bundle a media player because the Mac does - get the RealPlayer folks to cry foul. Bundle a web browser - predator.

That's always a problem when you get really big and are well endowed. People become very envious of you. I have the same problem every time I go to a public restroom.

[guns1inger]

That's always a problem when you get really big and are well endowed. People become very envious of you. I have the same problem every time I go to a public restroom.

What - you get envious of the guy standing next to you ?

[oldandinthe way]

One of the things that gives me pleasure in such discussions is the fact that Microsoft is a major shareholder in Apple, and any success Apple has benefits them as well.

Given Microsoft's latest strategic moves i expect them to have a large number of little guys like Apple helping them to earn big money.

[edDV]

Microsoft Office has always been a big seller on Macs. Now M$ is selling thousands of copies of full XP or Vista to run in dual boot or virtual on the Intel Macs.