Blockbuster chooses Blu-ray: is the war over?

[lordsmurf]

Why do you insist that a video game system (that is tanking in sales) has any relationship to BD players and BD sales? Most stores don't have any of the HD/BD stuff available. Those that do are not really selling anything. People walk right by, directly to the DVD racks.

PS2 was not a force in DVD, and PS3 is not a force in BD/HD. Sony miscalculated twice in a row, and they've really paid for it this time around. I was reading about this just a day or two ago. It was probably the USA Today, but it may have been another publication I read frequently.

Sony can barely sell systems, much less help sell games or movies.

The only way your information could relate, would be if the sample size was tiny and has a high margin of error. Given the diluted nature of the BD audience, that could very well be the case. But it's flawed statistics. Where did those stats come from, by chance? Was it a Sony/BD marketing or hype site?

[ViRaL1]

DVD was already well settled when the PlayStation 2 came out, and the introductory price was well above even a decent DVD player. Until recently, the Playstation 3 was the least expensive Blu-Ray player available and one of the selling points for a lot of people was that they could get in on Blu-Ray early on while paying as little as $500 when some 1st gen Blu-Ray were up to more than $1000. I'm sure not every PS3 owner buys Blu-Ray discs, but the PS3 has definitely put Blu-Ray players in many more homes than there would have been if set top boxes were the only option.

[lordsmurf]

About a month ago, less than 10-15% of PS3 owners accounted for BD movie purchasers. People still consider a game a game, and a video a video, with no overlap. I think Japan is the only place where integration is accepted on a large scale.

In 2001, DVD was not at full saturation. Players were still costly, movies were still scarce, VHS sold well. Heck, even Blockbuster was primarily VHS with some DVDs mixed in. They tried to market PS2 for the DVD ability, and quite heavily. How do people conveniently forget this kind of stuff?

It needs to be said that more DVDs sell in a week (possibly a day) than all BD or HD sales to date.

[dvd3500]

In 2001, DVD was not at full saturation. Players were still costly, movies were still scarce, VHS sold well. Heck, even Blockbuster was primarily VHS with some DVDs mixed in. They tried to market PS2 for the DVD ability, and quite heavily. How do people conveniently forget this kind of stuff?

Indeed. Remember when Star Wars Episode 1 was VHS only?

[edDV]

Indeed. Remember when Star Wars Episode 1 was VHS only?

No I don't remember that.

Theater Release
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120915/releaseinfo
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars_Episode_I:_The_Phantom_Menace#Releases

[lordsmurf]

Wikipedia.com and imdb.com are user-updated information, they are NOT valid sources of information. They are on par with tabloids and junior high student essays.

Star Wars Episode I was on VHS for quite a while before it was on DVD. The VHS was released in April 2000. The DVD did not come out until October 2001. Hell, even a VCD version was available before the DVD!

I remember looking under the "DVD" category in 2002 on eBay and only getting a few thousand hits. Thats when I bought my Highlander DVD movies used. I would just scroll down the DVD listings, sorted by price, looking for good deals.

DVD really did not pick up momentum until Walmart starting to carry the $30-40 Apex and Cyberhome units in 2003-2004. Even this site was called vcdhelp.com and dominated with VCD crap well into 2003. Common information, such as overscan and interlace, was nowhere to be found in 2002-2003, on any video site.

How short some memories are.

[edDV]

Wikipedia.com and imdb.com are user-updated information, they are NOT valid sources of information. They are on par with tabloids and junior high student essays.

Star Wars Episode I was on VHS for quite a while before it was on DVD. The VHS was released in April 2000. The DVD did not come out until October 2001. Hell, even a VCD version was available before the DVD!

I remember looking under the "DVD" category in 2002 and only getting a few thousand hits. Thats when I bought my Highlander DVD movies used. I would just scroll down the DVD listings, sorted by price, looking for good deals.

DVD really did not pick up momentum until Walmart starting to carry the $30-40 Apex and Cyberhome units in 2003-2004. Even this site was called vcdhelp.com and dominated with VCD crap well into 2003. Common information, such as overscan and interlace, was nowhere to be found in 2002-2003, on any video site.

How short some memories are.

Remember back then Lucus was paranoid about releasing anything on DVD. It was identical to current "Hollywood" paranoia about HD/BD DVD. They feel like they are being data raped.

Lucas has since come around and has embraced digital distribution.

[Rich86]

Who really cares which format wins? Besides Sony or Toshiba, that is.

Let me know when there is one high definition format to embrace and invest in - then I'll consider investing in a player that can handle that format - and maybe even some titles to play on it.
Until then - it is standard dvd's (mostly rented now, since we know the format is obsolete) played through an upconverting player to a 1080p TV.

[rhegedus]

Why do you insist that a video game system (that is tanking in sales) has any relationship to BD players and BD sales? Most stores don't have any of the HD/BD stuff available. Those that do are not really selling anything. People walk right by, directly to the DVD racks.

Because when you have data that shows that BR sales (as a % of total HiDef sales) double in the month that the PS3 is released and continues to outsell HD by 2:1 ever since, that's significant.

Why is this coincidence to you?

PS2 was not a force in DVD, and PS3 is not a force in BD/HD. Sony miscalculated twice in a row, and they've really paid for it this time around. I was reading about this just a day or two ago. It was probably the USA Today, but it may have been another publication I read frequently.

But it's flawed statistics. Where did those stats come from, by chance? Was it a Sony/BD marketing or hype site?

Nielsen.

Backed up by amazon sales (see www.eproductwars.com)

Do you have anything to counter this, other than opinion?

[Alan69]

The PS3/BluRay scenario has zero direct correlation in this manner.

It's more along the lines of:
More monkeys were born in November.
Banana sales have gone up since November.
Monkey births must have caused banana sales to increase.

That is absurd logic.
#1 Monkeys cannot buy anything, they're animals.
#2 So many other variables exist into why sales went up, down, or stagnated.

People need to quit making half-assed poorly-researched guesses. The easy answer is usually the wrong answer.

Your logic here is a bit poor. Yes, monkeys can't buy bananas. But that doesn't mean your #2 statement is automatically true, which is something you often count on to prove your points. Disproving part of what someone else says doesn't automatically make your own also half-assed poorly researched guesses more right.. More banana sales can easily be tracked back to more people buying bananas for the increased amount of monkeys they have. Something can still be straight forward cause and effect even when there are more than 2 things in the chain.



And you're WAY wrong on porn not driving markets, at least in the past. I see it as less of a driver for this round, since the quality vs content jump from DVD to HD won't matter as much for it. Rather with large screens I see the special effects of movies driving it now, the detail of a DVD can't keep up with a good big screen. But DVD's are already good enough that content is really more important than extra detail for porn.

But for sure for VCRs, it was porn. For VGA monitors and 16 bit video cards, it was porn. For 24 bit VGA cards it was porn. The only businesses buying VGA before about 1992 or so were printing and graphics shops. Every computer person I know had shelled out hundreds each for a VGA monitor and card, almost exclusively for porn. Heck there wasn't much else you could even do with VGA for years, they could do little more than show static 24 bit pictures. There was also a corresponding explosion in adult verified BBS's, I knew several people running them and there were probably 20 or 30 total in the Raleigh area alone. Also include scanners and cameras and everything else to get porn into digital format too.


Think you're right? Bet your LIFE on it! For sure, I'll put my life up against yours any day! Meet you anywhere executions are legal so you can get it done.. I can hear you yelling "It's NOT PS3'S!!!" now! (Think Braveheart if you didn't catch the reference..) Wouldn't be a fair bet though, wait for something where you have a shot. I was there and watching hundreds of people buying this crap years before anyone else had VGA etc, I know the right answers on this, no amount of revisionism or wheedling makes it untrue. The market really takes off after it's cheap enough to go main stream, but for sure the early market was almost entirely driven by porn for these items. There was little else to do with these things to get people to pay hundreds to have VGA. Only BS is the pile on your head, Biff.


Alan

[lordsmurf]

Who really cares which format wins? Besides Sony or Toshiba, that is.
Let me know when there is one high definition format to embrace and invest in - then I'll consider investing in a player that can handle that format - and maybe even some titles to play on it.
Until then - it is standard dvd's (mostly rented now, since we know the format is obsolete) played through an upconverting player to a 1080p TV.

As much as I've posted here, I don't really care either. 8)

I just know better than to trust Sony after they've fallen flat on their ass for 30 years now, with one proprietary format after another. I also know how to see through marketing bullshit and fudged statistics. Right now, neither is winning, and nobody seems to really care... except Sony and Toshiba, who publish malarkey that some folks to choose to believe. Not me, no thanks.

Keep track Rhegedus, no hard feelings, I just don't see things the way you do.

[videopoo]

I just know better than to trust Sony after they've fallen flat on their ass for 30 years now, with one proprietary format after another. I also know how to see through marketing bullshit and fudged statistics

Here...Here!!!

Not to mention the fact that want to control the entire replication and authoring/production process. That means Sony decides which titles they are willing to replicate - This is bad for consumers and content owners.

[edDV]

I just know better than to trust Sony after they've fallen flat on their ass for 30 years now, with one proprietary format after another. I also know how to see through marketing bullshit and fudged statistics

Here...Here!!!

Not to mention the fact that want to control the entire replication and authoring/production process. That means Sony decides which titles they are willing to replicate - This is bad for consumers and content owners.

A contrarian would say this concentration plus the poor quality of their product would make a perfect opportunity for a new challenger. This concentration of media is a Ponzi scheme ripe for taking down.

I love it when the TV networks blame Murdock's YouTube for increasingly poor ratings. Where are the serious challengers?

[gotnotime]

Blu Ray will win (despite the Sony name)

PS 3 certainly is a factor, and Blockbuster is gambling on this format to cut costs on inventory by not having to have both format disks in stock. But this is only a small factor.

More impotantly "size does matter" when it comes to chosing a format. Blue Ray makes more sense and will cheaper to produce disks since most HD movies and all the extras will fit on a single layer Blu-Ray 25GB. HD-DVD with 15GB will liklely have to produce dual layer discs to maintain a equal quality of video and still have "extras" on the disk. I realize that most of these extras are usually garbage, but they are important to the studios for marketing strategies. Hence titles like "extreme", "ultimate", or "collecotrs edition" that have same movie with different extras. Therefore, like it or not, extras will continue to grow

In addition, as HD burners become more common, the consumers will prefer to make single layer discs to avoid all the layer break issues, and loss of speed we see now with DVD-DL. Not to mention you could reduce the size of current libraries by putting three to four DVD-DL size movies on one bluray vs two to three for Hd-DVD.

Furthermore we all know that the cost per GB of dual layer remain much higher for Dual layer disks and likley will continue with HD media disks again making bluray the better buy. Those that argue that a 3 layer HD DVD will hold just as much as a dual layer are idiots. I can only imagine how much trouble it would take to come up with that design when they still haven't even perfected dual layer, not to mention the costs.

The last note above shows the tren of sales over the last 7 months has swung to BluRay. The only thing keeping HD-DVD alive for now is that the Blu Ray players are still more expensive. Once they overcome this, HD-DVD will be gone

[videopoo]

More impotantly "size does matter" when it comes to chosing a format. Blue Ray makes more sense and will cheaper to produce disks since most HD movies and all the extras will fit on a single layer Blu-Ray 25GB. HD-DVD with 15GB will liklely have to produce dual layer discs to maintain a equal quality of video and still have "extras" on the disk. I realize that most of these extras are usually garbage, but they are important to the studios for marketing strategies. Hence titles like "extreme", "ultimate", or "collecotrs edition" that have same movie with different extras. Therefore, like it or not, extras will continue to grow

No way is producing a Blu Ray(BD-J) disc cheaper than HD DVD nor will it ever be. Right now it will set you back around $80,000 is to get your content to BR. Not to mention the price of the tools (around $100,000). BTW - there is only 1 of 7 workstations who author the Blu Ray discs you see on shelves. Replication costs are triple.

Anyone can author an HD DVD (Advanced Content) with nothing but Notepad and a little knowledge. The code is open to anyone who wants to learn it. This has got to be a factor in how much content to you will SEE in the future. Remember, Hollywood studios only control a small portion of HD content in the world.

Also, most BR titles use MPEG2, not VC1 so your comment about quality has yet to surface in the BR camp.

[lordsmurf]

Those that argue that a 3 layer HD DVD will hold just as much as a dual layer are idiots. I can only imagine how much trouble it would take to come up with that design when they still haven't even perfected dual layer, not to mention the costs.

What??

Correct me if this is not the case, but I believe it is Blu-Ray that does not even use its second layer, while HD-DVD is consistently a two-layer disc. So HD-DVD is often a larger disc. Then they found a way to create a triple-platter (which is quite feasible these days, as opposed to a few years ago), which matches what Blu-Ray doesn't use anyway.

Many DVDs still don't use dual-layer, or they only use part of it (5-6GB out of ~8GB available). If AVC is put to good use, those mega-sized HD discs won't need the space either.

All this quest for "more space" is largely a fool's errand. As far as data backup goes, everybody pretty much uses an additional HDD for larger backups, as it's faster, easier and cheaper. Optical is used for smaller backups. It's the modern floppy disc. That is partially being supplanted by thumb drives now.

[edDV]

Those that argue that a 3 layer HD DVD will hold just as much as a dual layer are idiots. I can only imagine how much trouble it would take to come up with that design when they still haven't even perfected dual layer, not to mention the costs.

What??

Correct me if this is not the case, but I believe it is Blu-Ray that does not even use its second layer, while HD-DVD is consistently a two-layer disc. So HD-DVD is often a larger disc. Then they found a way to create a triple-platter (which is quite feasible these days, as opposed to a few years ago), which matches what Blu-Ray doesn't use anyway.

Many DVDs still don't use dual-layer, or they only use part of it (5-6GB out of ~8GB available). If AVC is put to good use, those mega-sized HD discs won't need the space either.

All this quest for "more space" is largely a fool's errand. As far as data backup goes, everybody pretty much uses an additional HDD for larger backups, as it's faster, easier and cheaper. Optical is used for smaller backups. It's the modern floppy disc. That is partially being supplanted by thumb drives now.

I agree. Once VC-1 and H.264 hardware codecs are widely available, Red laser DVD-9 or even DVD-5 looks adequate for HDTV.

For HD-DVD (red laser)

DVD-5 AVC 1.3 hours @ 8Mb/s
DVD-9 AVC 2.6 hours @ 8Mb/s

The HD DVD format isn't required except to play on HD DVD players.

I see a red laser based solution much like a recording Linkplayer that will bypass HD/BD and be far cheaper for recorders, players and authoring.

The only missing link is the realtime hardware AVC (including h.264 and VC-1) codec.

The trend is to more efficient codecs. That makes HD/BD formats only appropriate for backup use.

[rhegedus]

Keep track Rhegedus, no hard feelings, I just don't see things the way you do.

Ditto

I've been tracking this since Specialist's (a.k.a. paid stooge) bullshit Editorial: Why "HD DVD" Is Thumping "Blu-ray Disc".

That was back when HD was outselling BluRay 2:1. Now the tables have turned 180 degrees.

Incidentally, speaking of the Blockbuster decision:

Microsoft Says No PS3 Blu-ray In Xbox 360

Microsoft’s Xavier Bringue has put rumors to rest stating that Microsoft has no plans to put a Blu-ray drive in the Xbox 360 similar to how it is in the Sony PlayStation 3.

The co-president of the HD-DVD promotional group stated that the medium is still in the mix and far from down and out like many believe.

He continued by stating that the Blockbuster move to make Blu-ray exclusive may be a a factor but the most important thing to the next-gen media format war is the price and with HD-DVD being cheaper, it still stands a chance.

For the record, according the amazon data, BD and HD are equally priced. So, the one advantage that MS thought they had has gone down the pan.

New HD advertising slogan: "HD-DVD - We still have a chance!"

[MozartMan]

I've been tracking this since Specialist's (a.k.a. paid stooge) bullshit Editorial: Why "HD DVD" Is Thumping "Blu-ray Disc".

[rhegedus]

Correct me if this is not the case, but I believe it is Blu-Ray that does not even use its second layer, while HD-DVD is consistently a two-layer disc. So HD-DVD is often a larger disc. Then they found a way to create a triple-platter (which is quite feasible these days, as opposed to a few years ago), which matches what Blu-Ray doesn't use anyway.

No.

Many of the single layer Blu-Ray disks are direct copies of the video from HD, thus it is easier for lazy studios to make a video data size that is suitable for both formats than to make two separate ones.

Take the excellent BBC Planet Earth series - this is supplied on a 4 disk set with direct porting of the video data between formats, thus the HD and Blu-Ray disks are only about 24Gb. But, the studio could have put the Blu-Ray out on 2 disks only using double layer disks, but that would have meant new menus etc.

It's studio lazyness that prevents full utilisation of Blu-Ray's capabilities. If you check out the titles that are exclusive to Blu-Ray (i.e. not constrained by having to cater for two formats), they're usually 40Gb+.

Blu-ray Movie Bitrates

[MozartMan]

This is the future of HD DUD.

[MozartMan]

Correct me if this is not the case, but I believe it is Blu-Ray that does not even use its second layer, while HD-DVD is consistently a two-layer disc.

BD25:
American Psycho Lionsgate Films Feb 06, 2007
Beerfest Warner Bros. Jan 30, 2007
Broken Arrow 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
Chain Reaction 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
Chronos Koch Entertainment Feb 13, 2007
Courage Under Fire 20th Century Fox Jan 23, 2007
The Covenant Sony Pictures Jan 02, 2007
Dog Day Afternoon Warner Bros. Apr 10, 2007
Dragon's Lair Digital Leisure Apr 17, 2007
Employee of the Month Lionsgate Films Jan 16, 2007
Entrapment 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
Eragon 20th Century Fox Mar 20, 2007
Failure to Launch Paramount Pictures Apr 24, 2007
The Fountain Warner Bros. May 15, 2007
Happy Feet Warner Bros. Mar 27, 2007
Hart's War Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Jan 30, 2007
The Holiday Sony Pictures Mar 13, 2007
Hoosiers Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Mar 13, 2007
The Marine 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
Men of Honor 20th Century Fox Jan 23, 2007
Night at the Museum 20th Century Fox Apr 24, 2007
Open Season Sony Pictures Jan 30, 2007
Phone Booth 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
Planet Earth: The Complete Collection BBC Apr 24, 2007
Planet of the Apes 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
The Queen Disney / Buena Vista Apr 24, 2007
Rambo: First Blood Lionsgate Films Feb 06, 2007
Reign of Fire Disney / Buena Vista Feb 13, 2007
Relentless Enemies National Geographic Mar 27, 2007
Reservoir Dogs Lionsgate Films Feb 06, 2007
Revenge: Director's Cut Sony Pictures May 08, 2007
Saw II Lionsgate Films Jan 23, 2007
Saw III Lionsgate Films Jan 23, 2007
Scooby-Doo Warner Bros. Jan 16, 2007
The Sentinel 20th Century Fox Feb 13, 2007
The Usual Suspects Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Feb 13, 2007
The Wicker Man Warner Bros. Jan 30, 2007
Young Guns Lionsgate Films Feb 06, 2007

BD50:
A Scanner Darkly Warner Bros. Apr 10, 2007
Alien vs. Predator 20th Century Fox Jan 23, 2007
Babel Paramount Pictures Feb 20, 2007
Big Fish Sony Pictures Mar 20, 2007
Black Rain Paramount Pictures Jan 23, 2007
Bullitt Warner Bros. Feb 27, 2007
Casanova Disney / Buena Vista Jan 23, 2007
Casino Royale Sony Pictures Mar 13, 2007
Catch and Release Sony Pictures May 08, 2007
Chicago Disney / Buena Vista Jan 23, 2007
Chicken Little Disney / Buena Vista Mar 20, 2007
Crank Lionsgate Films Jan 09, 2007
Deja Vu Disney / Buena Vista Apr 24, 2007
The Departed Warner Bros. Feb 13, 2007
Destiny's Child: Live in Atlanta Sony Music Feb 20, 2007
Dirty Dancing Lionsgate Films May 08, 2007
The Dirty Dozen Warner Bros. Apr 17, 2007
Donnie Brasco: Extended Cut Sony Pictures May 08, 2007
Dreamgirls Paramount Pictures May 01, 2007
Enter the Dragon Warner Bros. Apr 17, 2007
Finding Neverland Disney / Buena Vista Mar 20, 2007
Flyboys Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Jan 30, 2007
G.I. Jane Disney / Buena Vista Apr 03, 2007
The Getaway Warner Bros. Feb 27, 2007
GoodFellas Warner Bros. Jan 16, 2007
Gridiron Gang Sony Pictures Jan 16, 2007
The Guardian Disney / Buena Vista Jan 23, 2007
Happily N'Ever After Lionsgate Films May 01, 2007
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy Disney / Buena Vista Jan 23, 2007
Identity Sony Pictures Apr 03, 2007
Incubus: Alive at Red Rocks Sony Music Mar 27, 2007
King Arthur: Director's Cut Disney / Buena Vista Apr 03, 2007
Ladder 49 Disney / Buena Vista Feb 13, 2007
Layer Cake Sony Pictures Mar 13, 2007
The Manchurian Candidate Paramount Pictures Jan 23, 2007
March of the Penguins Warner Bros. Mar 27, 2007
Nine Inch Nails: Beside You in Time Interscope Feb 27, 2007
Payback: Straight Up Paramount Pictures Apr 10, 2007
The Prestige Disney / Buena Vista Feb 20, 2007
The Pursuit of Happyness Sony Pictures Mar 27, 2007
Resident Evil: Apocalypse Sony Pictures Jan 16, 2007
Rocky Balboa Sony Pictures Mar 20, 2007
Running with Scissors Sony Pictures Feb 06, 2007
Secret Window Sony Pictures Apr 24, 2007
Stranger Than Fiction Sony Pictures Feb 27, 2007
The Tailor of Panama Sony Pictures Feb 06, 2007
Ultimate Avengers Collection Lionsgate Films Apr 24, 2007
Vertical Limit Sony Pictures Feb 20, 2007
Volver Sony Pictures Apr 03, 2007
Warriors of Heaven and Earth Sony Pictures Mar 27, 2007
We Were Soldiers Paramount Pictures Jan 23, 2007
The World's Fastest Indian Magnolia Pictures Feb 13, 2007

38 BD25 vs 52 BD50.

That's 58 percent BD50 YTD.

[rhegedus]

The trend is to more efficient codecs. That makes HD/BD formats only appropriate for backup use.

Aren't WMV-HD and DivX HD already here? Neither are being used to any significant level.

Going from 480 to 1080 is a 6x jump in resolution/data - can newer codecs handle this compression (assuming current DVD capacity constraints) without compromise? How much space would be left for the audio tracks?

[edDV]

The trend is to more efficient codecs. That makes HD/BD formats only appropriate for backup use.

Aren't WMV-HD and DivX HD already here? Neither are being used to any significant level.

Going from 480 to 1080 is a 6x jump in resolution/data - can newer codecs handle this compression (assuming current DVD capacity constraints) without compromise? How much space would be left for the audio tracks?

Note that I'm talking about the real time hardware encoders-decoders needed to make a DVD recorder. There are many formats but the broadcast/movie/telco industries have largely standardized on VC-1 (for interlace) and h.264. A DVD recorder will need to deal with 1080i and 720p so VC-1 looks like the first codec of choice but the interlace h.264 project is going in parallel.

Recorders will probably also have divx-hd support for playback and maybe for recording.

[overloaded_ide]

Both formats are already dead.

This is just like the format wars of -R and +R, gee which is going to win that war?? It is still raging on!
There never was a winner! Both disks still sell well, all burners burn both formats today. Most or all new players play both formats. So who won? Who cares?
Now if only we could buy disks that we know will work for sure in either of the formats!

DVD was a big jump over VHS, many of us did not make that jump till late in the game, and many still have not. I know of lots of homes still with a VCR but no DVD player.
MOST people do not have giant sized HD TV's in their homes and most never will. Big Tvs take big money and large amounts of space, even the thin ones take up allot of wall space.
Although there was a big step from VHS to DVD even on smaller Tv's there just won't be much gain for anyone with a smaller normal sized TV. Many of us are still just happy enough with VHS tapes we already own, we don't rush out and buy the DVD to get better video or sound.

Although people are stupid in general, I dought there are enough stupid people out there to buy into Blue Ray or HD and buy a player for 4 rooms with a 20" TV in each. Those people will be demanding DVD's for a long time to come! Studios that do not produce DVD's will see a major loss in sales! If studios do put out the DVD's then the average person has no reason to buy into Blue Ray or HD players. Costs will have to drop way down to almost the price of a DVD player, maybe around $100 or less before it will be worth the average person buying one.
With people having to have a little TV in every room of the house, kitchen and bathroom, they are not going to be happy buying a movie on a disk they can watch in only 1 room with that high priced player and nowhere else in the house. So even if they get suckered into buying one player and some disks they will not be happy with it for long and will stop buying the disks till player drop way in price so they can have one in at least 3-4 rooms for their tiny little 20" TV's.

Course you got the stupid people that just have to have the newest thing rather it does them any good or not just so they can say hey I got this thing so there will be some average people that will buy players they can't afford and stick them on credit cards they can't afford and it will do nothing for them on their little Tv's but they can say hey I got this thing I can't afford and you don't have one yet. Will there be enough of these stupid people to make a difference?

Then we have the Guys like a few of you here, Big Fancy HD LCD or Plasma Tv's, maybe 3 in the house 52-80". Sure you can use the benifits of Blue ray or HD perhaps but remember your not the average smoe on the street. So although you may buy one and use it Joe Smoe has not real use for it.

And that non-sense of porn being why people got into VGA monitors is just crazy! More people bought scanners and monitors for other reasons that never viewed porn! First CGA was dead, so if you bought a new computer you bought the monitor that worked on it, VGA and CGA had different connectors!!! You could not just run out and buy or order a new video card like you can today.
I could not put VGA on my older system nor could I use my currant CGA monitor on my new system!
People that didn't need or want VGA were forced to buy VGA anyway. My first VGA monitor cost me a bloody fortune, I did not want to buy it, I had a perfectly good CGA monitor, I could not plug in the CGA monitor to the VGA video card though!

Scanners were far more popular for putting the family photos, copies of bills and receipts, catalog images, etc... on home computers than for porn! Printers were not so popular for printing out porn either, people wanted those for printing text files and such. Printers in the home markets were crappy dot matrix black only printers and sold for big bucks!

Porn was not a major player in the home computer fields untill the internet really. Sure there were allot of adult BBS's out there where you could download porn, some free sites and some big pay sites, but that was a very small part of the online users. So porn did not really even play much part in modem sales back then either.

[lordsmurf]

The only people who think porn had a major impact on anything are the porn watchers themselves. I'm sorry, but your whack-and-jerk hobby is just not that important in the grand scheme of things. Yes, it makes lots of money, but it's a teeny tiny percentage of the overall scenario. We could do without porn and still move along with the same progress and gusto.

[RabidDog]

Actually hi-def is a dis-incentive for Porn .. most of these "starlets" are pretty skanky and will NOT stand up to detailed scrutiny. Porn is all available over the internet anyway. As with all these format changes you have to change eventually but some people are still happy using VHS, and they STILL sell blank tapes but of course no new movies come out on the format. Hollywood is desperate to move us all to a new uncrackable format of any description, the new, improved quality is just the sop for the consumer. Anyway didnt yall know 3D is the NEW hi-def??

It is a bit bad .. sony controls both film supply and distribution

[edDV]

3D porn might be good.

[Nilfennasion]

DVD was a big jump over VHS, many of us did not make that jump till late in the game, and many still have not. I know of lots of homes still with a VCR but no DVD player.
MOST people do not have giant sized HD TV's in their homes and most never will. Big Tvs take big money and large amounts of space, even the thin ones take up allot of wall space.

I have to call bullshit on this one.

I have not worked more than 18 months in my lifetime due to a myriad of impairments resulting from being born with a different kind of brain to those in power (yes, I know how X-Men that sounds, PM me and I will happily give the details). I currently live in a room that is only bigger than a prison cell by a factor of about half. Yet I have a display unit in it that is capable of 1920 x 1080I. I financed it for less than $2500AUD. So while true "giant sized" might be extravagant in the eyes of average working joes, HD no longer is.

I am also curious to know how many TVs you have owned in your life. When I took delivery of this plasma set, I was able to move it on my own once helped to lift it onto the TV stand. The thing weighs slightly less than half of what my old 80cm CRT. So bulk is not exactly going to discourage the ma and pa average type, either.

You are also kidding yourself if you think that from 480I/576I to 1080I/P is not a huge leap. The one factor that people like my pa find most annoying about SD-DVD is the amount of shimmer and flicker that can be visible on a bad transfer (or even some good ones) when the camera moves. Or sometimes when it does not. 1080I reduces this problem from a very visible annoyance to a minor irritation that one might miss entirely if they turn away to pick up their drink from their side. 1080P eliminates it altogether.

While it is true that HDTV is not in every home yet, it will be in a majority by the end of the next decade if current trends continue. It certainly is a lot closer than it was when it was first announced (near to twenty years ago now).

Of this so-called majority of people you know who still watch VCRs on 4:3 CRTs, how many of them are under the age of forty? My guess would be very, very few if any.

[samijubal]

If you listen to people on here who don't even own an HDTV, it's a step backwards. Those of us who own one know better though.