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  1. Member
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    Originally Posted by slacker
    By the way,

    the material and labor costs of producing discs will be going up, not down in the near future, so you need to factor that in. And the costs of hardware to read those discs will be going up, not down, due to the complexity of the 'reading' technology. I'm still betting my money on flash long term for the masses!
    Good points imo

    Yes the 'reading' technology seem to be forgotten at the thought of how cheap the discs themselves might be..
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    Originally Posted by DereX888
    just ROTFL
    (at consumer idiots backing either HD camp)
    Yep its as if these people have such solid ability to predict the future...its seems so premature given the lack of actual public interest/response so far and all the possiblities or is there really a 100% certainty 1 of these formats will survive and make it mainstream, that the company will all but kill itself and anyone who stands in its way for (at least assumed chance of) the BIG $$$$ ?
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    Originally Posted by Nilfennasion
    The real issue is people don't really care.
    One time, I went into a store and asked if they stock DVD+Rs. The response from the staff member was more or less exactly "nobody buys those". My response, sounding a bit like it was half prompted by a good case of rabies, was along the lines of "oh, so I am nobody, am I?". The reality, again, is that people do care because they have seen the difference and do not wish to go back. The mere idea of a format that is not inherently interlaced and can be played back at 24 frames per second is something I had never dared to hope for even seven years ago. When I am really old, I will tell my grandkids horror stories about how sometimes your TV would flicker really annoyingly and make your eyes water by doing so, and they will be unable to tell if I am making it up. For all the Sony-bashing that goes on in this forum, they seem to do a hell of a lot more forward-thinking than anyone here is capable of.


    I'm glad your "horrors" are examplified by flickering Tvs - if only things were like that in everyone elses reality

    I thought all the evidence indicated that HD was about as popular as a rash (or Apple Macs ) in comparison to DVD sales??

    Did it occur to you the staff may have just completely misunderstood you -i mean i can't tell from this post if you are being serious or acting for satire's sake
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  4. Member maek's Avatar
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    I remember when DVD's were confined to a single shelf unit at a Best Buy. They were about as popular as a rash, too (I recommend some analgesic cream by the way.)

    As DVD's gained popularity, Circuit City threw in a whole bunch of confusion into the mix with something called DIVX. Suddenly, everyone that I knew was worried that the format wasn't standard and they were hesitant to buy a DVD player if they didn't already own one. It really pissed me off at the time because the marketing was so intentionally ambiguous: "If you buy a player, make sure that it plays DIVX."

    Now we have HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. There is one slightly significant difference of note, however, and that would be the gaming consoles. While I wouldn't go so far to say that's a deciding impact on the market, anyone who is willing to shell out that kind of money to play games is likely in the market for a high definition screen. And hey, those Xbox and Playstation 3 consoles play HD-DVD's and Blu-Ray discs, respectively (Playstation also supports the unrelated DivX video by the way). "Well, gee, I already have the game console and a high def screen...why not try out these new discs?" I wouldn't say that it's a comprehensive poll, but out of 5 friends that I know with gaming consoles, there is a 100% correlation with this argument. And they all love it. Only 1 friend, however, has BOTH consoles and therefore buys across the board.

    It might be as popular as a rash, but I seem to recall DVD's taking a few years to steamroll themselves.
    "What? Huh?!? WHAT will come out no more?!?" Jack Burton -- BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA
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    Originally Posted by edDV
    The analog shutdown has never been driven by HDTV. HDTV was a byproduct of the process of converting to digital.
    Oh yes, years ago it was the main purpose, I know.
    When it was first proposed we had what - ONE single experimental HD TV broadcast channel in Washington, right?

    However it seems nowadays the whole digital switch is all about HD TV, or certainly it appears that way for past few years.
    Whenever 'going digital' is mentioned lately, it is usually accompanied by the "HD" acronyms at least as one of the listed 'benefits' of the switch, didn't you notice?
    Maybe its just me, but out of the sudden it appears to me that the whole digital hoopla is more about HD than just good'ol SD going digital.


    Originally Posted by maek
    As DVD's gained popularity, Circuit City threw in a whole bunch of confusion into the mix with something called DIVX. Suddenly, everyone that I knew was worried that the format wasn't standard and they were hesitant to buy a DVD player if they didn't already own one. It really pissed me off at the time because the marketing was so intentionally ambiguous: "If you buy a player, make sure that it plays DIVX."

    You sure like to often make 'educated guesses' based on some randomly selected info.
    Pardon me, but beside Circuit City and one another (now defunct) chain AFAIR, who else promoted heavily the DIVX DVDs back then?
    NO ONE, not in USA and certainly not in the rest of the world.
    If someone was stupid enough to listen to what usually underinformed salespeople (saleskids?) of some single retail chain in just part of just one country were telling him about what 'future has to offer', then good luck with making any predictions whatsoever
    By the year 2000 DIVX was basically gone, that means it folded *before* the peak of the DVD sales (both hardware and titles).
    Shouldn't we assume by analogy then, that whatever the same idiots at i.e. Circuit City are promoting today (be it BR or HD-DVD) is the one that will flop soon? See how accurate are such assumptions based on such insignificant informations?
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  6. Member maek's Avatar
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    There are plenty of idiots in this world; I agree. Thanks for making my point.

    What was so random about the information? It was based on an example of a perceived (and let me stress perceived) format war at the time. Believe me, there was confusion and it slowed DVD sales. Please dredge up some hard facts beyond your "educated rebuttal."

    (edit) Never mind - here's a source that supports my "educated guess" (which I tend "to often make"): http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1430-9134.2003.00363.x?journalCode=jems[/i]
    "What? Huh?!? WHAT will come out no more?!?" Jack Burton -- BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA
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    Originally Posted by maek
    There are plenty of idiots in this world; I agree. Thanks for making my point.

    What was so random about the information? It was based on an example of a perceived (and let me stress perceived) format war at the time. Believe me, there was confusion and it slowed DVD sales. Please dredge up some hard facts beyond your "educated rebuttal."

    (edit) Never mind - here's a source that supports my "educated guess" (which I tend "to often make"): http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1430-9134.2003.00363.x?journalCode=jems[/i]
    dude, the DIVX DVD never got further than few US States... do you really believe it could have had/made any impact on standard DVD-Video spread world-wide?
    LOL some of our American fellows here are really so gullible (to say it politely ) LOL


    ya know there is a whole wide world outside of US borders, dont'ya?
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  8. Member maek's Avatar
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    Where did I say it was world-wide? Now you're acknolwedging the sales impact in the US only whereas before you berate it as an educated guess?

    I'm merely making the point that the perceived confusion caused a slow-down in DVD sales. IF DIVX had been released worldwide, PERHAPS the same thing might have happened.

    Also, for your info, I'm half-Belgian, BORN in Belgium, lived for 10 years in Belgium, 7 years in England, and 3 years in Germany; cut the "silly American" crap, ok? At least I can speak two languages and write with some degree of proficiency beyond the "backwater country boy" accent you have got going on.

    Sorry if this has got me worked up, but even your attempt at "saying it politely" is still demeaning and condescending.
    "What? Huh?!? WHAT will come out no more?!?" Jack Burton -- BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA
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    Originally Posted by maek
    Where did I say it was world-wide? Now you're acknolwedging the sales impact in the US only whereas before you berate it as an educated guess?

    I'm merely making the point that the perceived confusion caused a slow-down in DVD sales. IF DIVX had been released worldwide, PERHAPS the same thing might have happened.

    Also, for your info, I'm half-Belgian, BORN in Belgium, lived for 10 years in Belgium, 7 years in England, and 3 years in Germany; cut the "silly American" crap, ok?
    <just shaking my head>
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  10. Member maek's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DereX888
    Originally Posted by maek
    Where did I say it was world-wide? Now you're acknolwedging the sales impact in the US only whereas before you berate it as an educated guess?

    I'm merely making the point that the perceived confusion caused a slow-down in DVD sales. IF DIVX had been released worldwide, PERHAPS the same thing might have happened.

    Also, for your info, I'm half-Belgian, BORN in Belgium, lived for 10 years in Belgium, 7 years in England, and 3 years in Germany; cut the "silly American" crap, ok?
    <just shaking my head>...
    ...<refusing to debate the point>
    "What? Huh?!? WHAT will come out no more?!?" Jack Burton -- BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA
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    Originally Posted by maek
    Originally Posted by DereX888
    Originally Posted by maek
    Where did I say it was world-wide? Now you're acknolwedging the sales impact in the US only whereas before you berate it as an educated guess?

    I'm merely making the point that the perceived confusion caused a slow-down in DVD sales. IF DIVX had been released worldwide, PERHAPS the same thing might have happened.

    Also, for your info, I'm half-Belgian, BORN in Belgium, lived for 10 years in Belgium, 7 years in England, and 3 years in Germany; cut the "silly American" crap, ok?
    <just shaking my head>...
    ...<refusing to debate the point>
    /sent in PM instead/
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  12. Member maek's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DereX888
    Originally Posted by maek
    Originally Posted by DereX888
    Originally Posted by maek
    Where did I say it was world-wide? Now you're acknolwedging the sales impact in the US only whereas before you berate it as an educated guess?

    I'm merely making the point that the perceived confusion caused a slow-down in DVD sales. IF DIVX had been released worldwide, PERHAPS the same thing might have happened.

    Also, for your info, I'm half-Belgian, BORN in Belgium, lived for 10 years in Belgium, 7 years in England, and 3 years in Germany; cut the "silly American" crap, ok?
    <just shaking my head>...
    ...<refusing to debate the point>
    /sent in PM instead/
    Responded with apology.

    Regardless of the size of the market venue, the fact that DIVX was released in the US, SLOWED down sales in the US. By analogous comparison, I'm expecting that the format war might do the same UNLESS independent copies look at the situation, smile, say "can't we all get along", and release dual-format players thereby nullifying both debate and competition.

    Two companies have already capitalized on this...it's only a matter of time.
    "What? Huh?!? WHAT will come out no more?!?" Jack Burton -- BIG TROUBLE IN LITTLE CHINA
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    Obviously this 'format war' we are witnessing is hurting both current HD formats, no doubt.
    But both formats differ only in the "content delivery methods", not the "content's formats" per se, both contain same resolution / same MPEG compressed video / same AC3 or DTS sound... there is no difference between them for the user. Its not like one of them give users better quality than the other, like it was in the early Beta vs VHS "war" (and even then the "lesser format" won, as we know).
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  14. Member edDV's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DereX888
    Obviously this 'format war' we are witnessing is hurting both current HD formats, no doubt.
    But both formats differ only in the "content delivery methods", not the "content's formats" per se, both contain same resolution / same MPEG compressed video / same AC3 or DTS sound... there is no difference between them for the user. Its not like one of them give users better quality than the other, like it was in the early Beta vs VHS "war" (and even then the "lesser format" won, as we know).
    There was no clear quality difference with Betamax vs. VHS either at SP speed. Betamax lost on cassette size or minutes recorded. This time Sony has more capacity but otherwise the two formats are effectively consumer identical. Capacity is mostly an issue for MPeg2. Sony can get a full MPeg2 movie on a single layer. HD DVD needs to go two layer or use AVC encoding to fit one layer. Before long everything will use AVC encoding so the Blu-Ray advantage is dubious. Added to that, it isn't clear that Sony can manufacture a single layer Blu-Ray disc cheaper than HD DVD can do a double layer.

    All in all this format war is less to do with tech and more to do with media deals.
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  15. Originally Posted by edDV
    All in all this format war is less to do with tech and more to do with media deals.
    Bingo!
    tgpo famous MAC commercial, You be the judge?
    Originally Posted by jagabo
    I use the FixEverythingThat'sWrongWithThisVideo() filter. Works perfectly every time.
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    Once upon a time, VHS was considered unstoppable, and tech writers even wrote DVD-Video off as the next dud in the making. Their reasoning, other than an issue that was defeated as easily as picking one's nose (Region Codes), was that it was an optical disc. Laserdisc failed, so will DVD, was basically what a couple wrote.

    The key point of this battle, as was the case in the battle between DVD and VHS, is studio support. DVD eventually buried VHS because the studios learned not only were people more likely to buy films on DVD, the DVDs could be manufactured at a cheaper rate. While the parameters are different in this war, the core issue remains the same. Studio support is everything. And Blu-Ray has effectively won that war. Even if HD-DVD manages to increase its sales in the eighteen months that its deal with Paramount is effective for, the reality remains that five out of eight studios are backing Blu-Ray. If the last format-neutral studio (I forget which it is) goes Blu-Ray, then HD-DVD is, as they say in films, fukked. If Paramount goes format neutral again at the end of those eighteen months, same result. If Universal goes format neutral, too, then the war is over.

    It cannot be proven, but there is much speculation that the difference in costs and sales price on those $299 HD-DVD players everyone was touting as final victory as if a price point had anything to do with it is being eaten by Microsoft. Simply put, if you need to be subsidised in order to be cheaper than the competition and only three companies out of eight are manufacturing ancilliary products to keep people buying your main product, you are in trouble. Big trouble.

    Popularity also has nothing to do with this war. HD is literally inevitable. As more and more people look at their TVs and wonder why they are limited to this shoddy picture, they are going to investigate new ideas. If American manufacturers or Microsoft will not satisfy their need, the HDTV standard that Japan was working on (and prompted America to do likewise in an effort to kill it) will be glad to fill in. More and more households are acquiring HD-capable displays, and want to exploit the display's capabilities to the fullest. When a HD disc format is standardised (note I said when, not if), there is even a good chance that cinemas will cease to exist a couple of decades later.

    It is kind of funny, if you went to a doctor in 1990 and told them that within ten years, half the world would be arguing wrong-headedly over pointless things on a forum that can be publically read via a computer, they would tell you that you need medication. When I am an old man, children will be looking at our oh-so-lovely SD TVs and asking me how we ever put up with that crap. I will think of a lot of people on forums like this one. And laugh.
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  17. Video Restorer lordsmurf's Avatar
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    More people buy an HDTV and wonder why the picture is now worse than the tube they just replaced.
    Want my help? Ask here! (not via PM!)
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    Yes, and if they are anything like my parents' siblings, they get one of their children (or me) telling them that when you change from a 26" TV set to a 42" one, the same source is going to look exponentially worse. I had an uncle moaning at me recently that he bought a new 42" TV and it looked worse than his 26" set.

    Imagine me repeating "what did you attempt to play on this TV?" a good five times to get an idea of how frustrating it was.

    Imagine how long and hard I laughed when the eventual answer was "my video recorder".

    It is amazing how many people forget the first and most fundamental rule of any visual display: the bigger the area you attempt to blow less dots up into, the worse it will look. That is what all those morons who should be euthanised forget when they complain that HDTV looks worse.

    "Waaaah HDTV looks worse..."

    "Learn how to set up a TV properly, you [long list of expletives that could fill a novel]..."
    "It's getting to the point now when I'm with you, I no longer want to have something stuck in my eye..."
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  19. Everything doesn't look worse on an HDTV. VHS looks better on my 42" plasma than on any CRT TV I've used, that includes SD and HD CRTs.
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    I do not know about VHS, samijubal (I have not watched it in about seven years), but I am going to be bold and guess that you made some attempts to calibrate your display properly. Doing that, just on its own, tends to make everything look a good deal better. Among a lot of people who cry that HDTV looks worse, they think it is just a simple matter of plugging a cable into the back of the display and away you go.

    Video Ezy have also begun setting up Blu-Ray demos in their stores. At the local store I visited recently, I managed to remark under my breath to one of the younger ones that it was like watching monkeys trying to discover fire.
    "It's getting to the point now when I'm with you, I no longer want to have something stuck in my eye..."
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  21. Maybe the late surge of Blue-Ray acceptance has to do with those Blue-Ray/HD-DVD booths in Wal-mart.

    The Blue-Ray shows very detail and sharp movie like those PS3 demo. The Blue-Ray display also talk about un-compressed surround sound.

    The HD-DVD side look very DVD, and they actually promoting DVD/Hd-DVD hybrid disc in place.
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  22. VH Wanderer Ai Haibara's Avatar
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    You know, I wouldn't be at all surprised if, given the way people have behaved during this whole 'war,' that people were purposely setting up booths comparing the two, but having one side set up wrong, just to make the other side look a lot better. Or if a fanboy for one side tried to get a job at Best Buy, or other similar store, just to sabotage the displays/stock of the side they don't like.

    As far as I've seen, both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray shouldn't have THAT much of a noticable difference between them, since they have roughly similar specs. Sure, there are differences, and Blu-Ray allows for higher bitrates. But I doubt an in-store comparison between the two (even a completely unbiased and properly set-up display) is going to show a considerable difference between them.

    (And no, I'm not on either side. The next HD thing I'm probably going to buy - the only thing for some time to come - is a TV to replace my 5-6 year-old TV. Other than that...)
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  23. Originally Posted by Ai Haibara
    As far as I've seen, both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray shouldn't have THAT much of a noticable difference between them, since they have roughly similar specs.
    Spec don't mean much, when it come to consumer preference.

    1. Many Ford and BMW cars has about the same spec. BMW wins hand down all the time.

    2. Beta has a better spec than VHS. Beta is aka loser.
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    Originally Posted by SingSing
    Spec don't mean much, when it come to consumer preference.

    1. Many Ford and BMW cars has about the same spec. BMW wins hand down all the time.

    2. Beta has a better spec than VHS. Beta is aka loser.
    Er... what I was saying, was that as the specs for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are roughly similar, the average consumer isn't really going to notice any sort of considerable difference between the two, playing side-by-side. One's not going to look or sound notably different than the other.
    If cameras add ten pounds, why would people want to eat them?
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    A number of comments have risen in my mind as I read this endless debate and stating of 'facts'.
    "Fact" 1. Beta was better then VHS. In fact, Beta died because for the consumer (please note!) and commercially available tapes, and the number one use of Videotape (time shifting TV) VHS and Beta were indistinguishable when VHS got upgraded and caught up with Betamax in sound and picture quality. For me, it was just sound that was lacking, then they fixed it. Beta was not better. For a long time, it was kicking VHS butt in the area of sound and VHS fixed it.
    Fact 2. BluRay has defeated HD. Lets go back in the wayback machine to the year 2000. Lets go into the neighborhood video rental store, the only real way to watch a movie unless one wanted to download VCD copies over our still being born broadband network. The store if full of videotapes and they have like 25 movies on DVD, if that. DVD players are expensive, and so are the movies. So expensive in fact, that price fixing is alleged by several governmental units. Why did VHS disappear in the next 5 years?
    Cheap players. But in the meantime we had the DVD format war. Where players would not play either + or -. or had a hard time handling burned media, blah blah blah. What do the consumers care for this, the real people who decide this stuff? They care about $.

    So, do I own a HD TV. Yes. Do I own a Blu Ray or HD-DVD. No. I'm not paying $30 for a movie. And I'm not paying $500 for a player either.

    Fact 3. Toshiba is losing money selling all of their units. I don't know the answer to that statement. And neither do the people making those statements. The thing about electronics is, the first unit they make of something is very expensive, millions of dollars. The rest, cost what the materials cost to make them. This is why you can go out and buy perfectly usable Philips DVD players like the 642 or 56XX series that play everything for 30 something dollars. It is entirely conceivable that players will be cheaper, because if they are not, they WILL fail. The Gillette model, which manufacturers LOVE, will not work for this market.
    People will keep paying low prices for DVD's.

    I love HD. I'm getting my Directv upgrade in two weeks. 85 channels are certainly enough for me. I am very happy with 1080i and 720P broadcast quality pictures. My set is a 1080P, something we will probably never see broadcast, but time will tell on that. Maybe on satellite.

    Price drives everything.

    Final fact. I have seen various corporations pilloried and smacked about and accused of jumping a format and causing all sorts of things, usually criminal in nature. What I saw, from the sidelines, is a upscale repeat of the +/- war in DVD. And I see corporate powers trying to do what they do best, attempt to stuff genie back into the bottle and limit access to technology. I don't like closed systems, open systems is what made the PC a success. I don't like a corporation saying that certain people cannot use their technology because "we don't like your type". For a bunch of bloodthirsty savages bent on driving their competition out of business and hogging the entire business for themselves they hardly should be dictating morals to people. So I've just said I don't like Sony. But I've bought plenty of their stuff. they always try to make a new standard. (memory stick... etc) The ultimate kiss off of Bluray might be when studios decide they don't want to pay Sony or whomever for the rights to Bluray.

    Competition is good. Currently neither one gets my money. What I hope for is a set top player that will be able to play mkv files. My PC can do it. So far, no such animal. And all of the various boxes for media serving have fallen short of the mark I need. They are getting close. But not there yet.

    Thanks for reading. Resume argueing. I vote for. Ignore until they both are cheap.
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  26. Originally Posted by Billf2099
    open systems is what made the PC a success.
    Not from IBM's point of view!
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    true that! But if it hadn't happened we'd probably still be working away at 4000 buck computers churning away 16 bit style at 40 MHZ. No competition, no need to get better or cheaper.
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  28. The Old One SatStorm's Avatar
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    Better is needed and without the element of competition.
    The needs of the market (and the rest industry) are also reasons for better.

    Competition may be one reason for make something cheaper faster.

    On the other hand, the companies have to choose: Sell something expensive and for a lifetime or sell something cheap and frequently to the same costumers? How you can force someone to replace something that still works great?

    You need better, new and a bit cheaper for that. Eventually you end up to the same point you end up with competition, but not as fast.
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  29. Originally Posted by SatStorm
    On the other hand, the companies have to choose: Sell something expensive and for a lifetime or sell something cheap and frequently to the same costumers? How you can force someone to replace something that still works great?
    You just design the product so that some critical part wears out or breaks in a few years.
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  30. Member FulciLives's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by jagabo
    Originally Posted by SatStorm
    On the other hand, the companies have to choose: Sell something expensive and for a lifetime or sell something cheap and frequently to the same costumers? How you can force someone to replace something that still works great?
    You just design the product so that some critical part wears out or breaks in a few years.
    Sounds like every car I have ever bought. By the time I've paid it off (usually 5 years and always buy new 'cept for one time) the damn thing is falling apart and I need to buy another.

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