Editorial: Why "HD DVD" Is Thumping "Blu-ray Disc"

[MozartMan]

It means Blue ray absorbs/accept HD format.

You got it wrong.

[ofbarea]

I'll probably get a dual format HD DVD player when they become cheaper. In the mean time I will keep using my OPPO.

[lordsmurf]

the PS3 will inevitably outsell the 360.

I don't see how that is possible.

PS platforms have traditionally outsold their XBOX counterpart - PS2=111million, XBOX=24million to date.

The 360 has averaged monthly sales of around 250,000 since launch - PS3 sold nearly 200,000 in its first month despite restricted supply.

Backwards compatibility of the PS3 will mean that PS2 buyers are more likely to purchase a PS3 instead of the 360.

Stands to reason...

Sadly, all of that means nothing.

As we have seen in the past, platform generations can wildly swing the stats, and the top dog can change virtually overnight. Simply look at Atari, Sega and Nintendo for examples of this. Sony is not untouchable or even close to it.

So far the PS3 is doing pretty dismal, compared to pre-launch forecasts.

Realize I say this as a non-gamer, just a person that has casually played games since the Odyssey system (the original Pong, long before the name was used for it). I have no special interest in any company, I merely watch from the sidelines. I have no dog in this fight.

Quite frankly, I find the notion that the PS3 will have any influence of Blu-Ray to be laughable. It's a video game, not a movie player. Regardless of how much companies may push for "multimedia entertainment centers", that concept is simply not catching on or being used by anybody but a niche of video-minded techies.

[RLT69]

So far the PS3 is doing pretty dismal, compared to pre-launch forecasts.

Realize I say this as a non-gamer, just a person that has casually played games since the Odyssey system (the original Pong, long before the name was used for it). I have no special interest in any company, I merely watch from the sidelines. I have no dog in this fight.

Quite frankly, I find the notion that the PS3 will have any influence of Blu-Ray to be laughable. It's a video game, not a movie player. Regardless of how much companies may push for "multimedia entertainment centers", that concept is simply not catching on or being used by anybody but a niche of video-minded techies.

I say this as a non-gamer as well, OH COME ON!

SONY shipped a measly 200,000 units to the United States, that were snatched up right away; that had people paying SEVERAL THOUSAND DOLLARS for a $600 unit and you want to say the PS3 is doing pretty dismal??

If SONY had shipped a couple MILLION units and people only bought 200 THOUSAND, I would agree with you. I cannot agree, nor anybody looking at the facts, that the sales of the PS3 are dismal. They did not have enough product to sell!! It's pretty easy to say you sold more when the cap was 200,000 and you had several million to sell. Wait until August, then talk to me about sales numbers.

Video came console, not a movie player? The fact that it plays movies should be discounted?
The fact that it's the cheapest blu-ray player and cheaper than a HD-DVD player is significant. Hell I'm not a gamer, could care less but I'm very interested in a PS3. I like the other capabilities. The fact that it can play games is a side benefit.

How do you know people aren't looking at the PS3 as something more than a game console? The fact is you don't. Until we have sales numbers to judge, we don't know much of anything.

If the PS3 only sells in the range of game console numbers, then your are correct. However, if it exceeds them, then something else is afoot.

[xxiangg]

So far the PS3 is doing pretty dismal, compared to pre-launch forecasts.

Realize I say this as a non-gamer, just a person that has casually played games since the Odyssey system (the original Pong, long before the name was used for it). I have no special interest in any company, I merely watch from the sidelines. I have no dog in this fight.

Quite frankly, I find the notion that the PS3 will have any influence of Blu-Ray to be laughable. It's a video game, not a movie player. Regardless of how much companies may push for "multimedia entertainment centers", that concept is simply not catching on or being used by anybody but a niche of video-minded techies.

I say this as a non-gamer as well, OH COME ON!

SONY shipped a measly 200,000 units to the United States, that were snatched up right away; that had people paying SEVERAL THOUSAND DOLLARS for a $600 unit and you want to say the PS3 is doing pretty dismal??

If SONY had shipped a couple MILLION units and people only bought 200 THOUSAND, I would agree with you. I cannot agree, nor anybody looking at the facts, that the sales of the PS3 are dismal. They did not have enough product to sell!! It's pretty easy to say you sold more when the cap was 200,000 and you had several million to sell. Wait until August, then talk to me about sales numbers.

Video came console, not a movie player? The fact that it plays movies should be discounted?
The fact that it's the cheapest blu-ray player and cheaper than a HD-DVD player is significant. Hell I'm not a gamer, could care less but I'm very interested in a PS3. I like the other capabilities. The fact that it can play games is a side benefit.

How do you know people aren't looking at the PS3 as something more than a game console? The fact is you don't. Until we have sales numbers to judge, we don't know much of anything.

If the PS3 only sells in the range of game console numbers, then your are correct. However, if it exceeds them, then something else is afoot.

I do not think PS3 is doing very well. It is fading faster than I thought. You can buy
it from Amazon.com now for no makeup
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0009VXAM0/ref=nosim/slickdeals
or circuit.com bundle
http://www.circuitcity.com/ccd/categorySpecial.do?catOid=-16622&c=1&cm_re=modules-_-module4-_-link
If you use 10% off coupon for circuitcity.com from ebay, there is no much makeup either.

In addition, people not only start seeing PS3 available from Bestbuy and Walmart
here or there. They are seeing more and more returned PS3's.
http://www.neowin.net/forum/lofiversion/index.php/t524280.html

The good news for PS3 is only lasted for a month. Frankly, I am not saying that PS3 has
no potential in the future. It still had a long way to go and no one knows where it will end.

[Specialist]

Here's a better article about LG's brand new announcement of a dual-format high definition disc player:

http://tinyurl.com/y4vgo8

The LG announcement dramatically alters the competitive landscape for Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD. The mere announcement of a dual-format player could stall the market for high-definition players and discs, as consumers anticipate the dual-format player's arrival. A dual-format player would offer consumers a hedge against obsolence, in the event one of the disc formats dies out over time.

However, while a dual-format player will help consumers worried about buying into the wrong format, it won't help content producers. Dual-format players will remain a rarity, for at least the next year. If dual-format players do become the norm, studios will be faced with a quandary: Continue to support both formats, a costly endeavor, or release new and catalog content in just one of the disc formats--thereby foregoing support of those early adopters who bought into whichever disc format falls by the wayside.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[ozymango]

However, while a dual-format player will help consumers worried about buying into the wrong format, it won't help content producers. Dual-format players will remain a rarity, for at least the next year. If dual-format players do become the norm, studios will be faced with a quandary: Continue to support both formats, a costly endeavor, or release new and catalog content in just one of the disc formats--thereby foregoing support of those early adopters who bought into whichever disc format falls by the wayside.

Interesting points, but this is thinking inside the box.

Here's thinking outside the box:

Time Warner to announce dual-format DVDs next week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX - news) will unveil a new high-definition DVD next week that could end the battle between two next-generation videodisc technologies.
...
Total HD movies will carry movies that can be played on high-definition DVD players that use technology backed by Sony Corp.'s Blu-ray format, as well as players using Toshiba Corp.-backed HD-DVD format.

Is a Total HD disc a "costly endeavor"? Maybe, maybe not. But so much for the "quandry" mentioned above, which failed to consider that there may be a hell of a lot more options out there than we'd like to consider.

[Specialist]

So much for the "quandry" mentioned above, which failed to consider a third option.

Excellent find!

Here's the link to the full article about this new "Total HD" disc by Time Warner:

http://tinyurl.com/yhlnk2

In addition, it now appears Hewlett Packard will be joining LG in offering dual-format hardware:

http://tinyurl.com/ymjxkm

But at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next week, at least one hardware provider, LG Electronics Co., is expected to showcase DVD players that work with either technology. Hewlett-Packard Co. will also have products that support both formats in the marketplace this year, a source close to the company says. Others are expected to follow suit.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Specialist]

Wow, these news articles are coming fast, but it's all good news for the consumer, in my opinion.

Nobody benefits from a long, drawn-out format war.

This news changes everything.

Both formats will be supported.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[InXess]

This is only a compatibility mode - solution. Creating a disk still requires to opt for one of the original 2 or going with a 3rd one "Total HD". While it solves some issue from the user point of view it still, for now, adds to confusion rather then solves anything.

[Specialist]

This is only a compatibility mode - solution. Creating a disk still requires to opt for one of the original 2 or going with a 3rd one "Total HD". While it solves some issue from the user point of view it still, for now, adds to confusion rather then solves anything.

But a "Total HD" disc, in theory, would allow for HD DVD on one side and Blu-ray Disc on the other side, right?

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Constant Gardener]

A dual-format hi-def DVD sounds a bit like that utensil with a knife on one end and a fork on the other. A feasible, but suboptimal, solution.

[Specialist]

CNET is now carrying the New York Times piece by Richard Siklos:

http://tinyurl.com/yztoln

Jeffrey L. Bewkes, the president of Time Warner, said the Total HD disc has a better chance of catching on than dual players. Research commissioned by Warner indicates that consumers are willing to pay several dollars more than current high-definition DVDs for a disc that works on both players. At the Web site for Best Buy, Warner's Superman Returns DVD was selling yesterday for $19.99 in its standard format, $29.99 for Blu-ray and $34.99 for HD DVD.

Still, it is not clear whether news of Warner's Total HD disc would convince the studio heads who are backing one format or the other to release their wares in both. Sony, of course, has placed a big bet on Blu-ray's success and does not want to relive the sting of Betamax's defeat. The number of studios committed solely to Blu-ray has been seen as a competitive edge, particularly because HD DVD came to market several months ahead of Blu-ray.

And HD DVD's boosters say they doubt gaming fans who have been snapping up the just-introduced PlayStation 3 will take advantage of its built-in Blu-ray player and buy movies as well as video games.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[InXess]

But a "Total HD" disc, in theory, would allow for HD DVD on one side and Blu-ray Disc on the other side, right?

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

Again, how do you burn, when the time comes... have you read my post...?

Constant Gardener has summarized it correctly

[Specialist]

Well, the TOTAL HD disc recording methodology isn't clear, at this point.

Even after reading the articles, I'm not exactly sure how it works.

But it seems hopeful to me.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[InXess]

This is a solution for Studios but not for the user. Just a way to shove the disk down your throat.

[ozymango]

This is a solution for Studios but not for the user. Just a way to shove the disk down your throat.

Making a single disc that'll play on whatever HD player you buy, is shoving something down a user's throat?

How the heck does this make things worse for the viewer?

Maybe I'm missing something here, but I think this is pro user, not against. Making HD and Blu-Ray "compete" is anti-user: The manufacturing companies want to sell you the stuff they want to sell you, not make it easier for you to use something.

Let's say that they come out with a Total HD disc of a movie. Let's say I've got an HD player at home. I can watch this movie today on my HD player.

Let's say that five years from now, Blu-Ray has "won" and it's very hard to find a new HD player (like us Beta users experienced a few years ago), and you've still got that movie. Let's say you go ahead and buy yourself a new Blu-Ray player, for a lot less than you would have paid today.

Let's say that you then go through your movie collection and realize that you have to buy Blu-Ray copies of the DVDs you bought that only worked on HD players. But you don't have to spring any more $$$ for movies in your Total HD stack, as they'll play just fine.

Now, if a Total HD movie costs twice as much as either an HD or Blu-Ray release, then it seems pointless to go this route. But if some movie company wants to release movies at a relatively close price in Total HD, I'll be more likely to buy a copy of that disc today.

That's just me, of course.

[RLT69]

I do not think PS3 is doing very well. It is fading faster than I thought. You can buy
it from Amazon.com now for no makeup
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0009VXAM0/ref=nosim/slickdeals
or circuit.com bundle
http://www.circuitcity.com/ccd/categorySpecial.do?catOid=-16622&a ... le4-_-link
If you use 10% off coupon for circuitcity.com from ebay, there is no much makeup either.

What excactly does this prove? It simple means you can buy them now on Amazon and Walmart and BestBuy, which you weren't able to one month ago. FYI the circuit city ones are sold out.

They are seeing more and more returned PS3's.
http://www.neowin.net/forum/lofiversion/index.php/t524280.html

You have one poster to a forum that states people have returned 12 PS3 because they could not sell them on Ebay. That's hardly a dis-satisfied customer returning a PS3. Not too mention do we have any way of verifying this?

The PS3 comes out in November and already people want to declare it a failure in January!

Come on. :P

[Specialist]

Somebody translate this:

Because of manufacturing complexities, the Total HD disc will not contain a standard format version, said Kevin Tsujihara, the president of Warner Brothers Home Entertainment Group. However, several months ago the company filed patents for a new disc incorporating all three formats, which it could produce in the future.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/yztoln

I find the above statements confusing.

Wait. I think I now understand.

They seem to be saying that they filed patents for a new disc that could incorporate support for ...

a. standard definition players

b. "Blu-ray Disc" high definition players

c. "HD DVD" high definition players

Right?

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[ozymango]

This is only a compatibility mode - solution.

Yes, it is definitely a compatibility-mode solution. What's wrong with that?

If the end-user can get a product that allows him or her to watch the same quality movie on different types of disk players and -- importantly -- be priced close to the amount of a movie sold for one of those formats only ... this would be bad for the customer? Or the companies?

I'm coming from the perspective that the movies studios want people to pay for and watch movies from their studios. Period. Whether that's done by download, theater, iPod, whatever, the technology is not what they care most about. They care most about getting money from the consumer directly. That is, watch the movie any way that makes them money.

Whichever format "wins" out, is way down the list of things that matters. Except to the tech. companies, and no offense, but they can all go to hell if they think they can get me to buy something from them just because they refuse to work together to make it easier for us end users to WATCH THE DAMN MOVIE!!!!

[RLT69]

Whichever format "wins" out, is way down the list of things that matters. Except to the tech. companies, and no offense, but they can all go to hell if they think they can get me to buy something from them just because they refuse to work together to make it easier for us end users to WATCH THE DAMN MOVIE!!!!

Yeah, except obviously you are going to buy someone's technology to watch the Total HD. So obviously not all companies are going to hell 8)

[Conquest10]

I do not think PS3 is doing very well. It is fading faster than I thought. You can buy
it from Amazon.com now for no makeup
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0009VXAM0/ref=nosim/slickdeals
or circuit.com bundle
http://www.circuitcity.com/ccd/categorySpecial.do?catOid=-16622&a ... le4-_-link
If you use 10% off coupon for circuitcity.com from ebay, there is no much makeup either.

What excactly does this prove? It simple means you can buy them now on Amazon and Walmart and BestBuy, which you weren't able to one month ago. FYI the circuit city ones are sold out.

They are seeing more and more returned PS3's.
http://www.neowin.net/forum/lofiversion/index.php/t524280.html

You have one poster to a forum that states people have returned 12 PS3 because they could not sell them on Ebay. That's hardly a dis-satisfied customer returning a PS3. Not too mention do we have any way of verifying this?

The PS3 comes out in November and already people want to declare it a failure in January!

Come on. :P

People were buying these things to make a profit so they sell out. Wow! Look at the success of the PS3!! They will sell out forever and will sell over 600 million!! One month later, they are sitting on the shelf and even being returned and then it becomes "what does this prove, its only been a month"?

[InXess]

Ozymango, don't get too excited... Looks like you're very HD hungry. Most users will choose a format that is flexible, inexpensive and will match other components they already may have. Since burning has become such a huge part in everyone's life (is there anyone who doesn't own a burner now?) Total HD solves only one part of the equation leaving another one (probably most important) unresolved. While Total HD allows you to buy a HD disk it still does not address the issue: what ultimately will be the format of your choice? They may release inexpensive players but prohibitively price the blank media or burners. I bet if you take all this into account you won't be able to answer what to buy today: BD or HD DVD? Add some technical issues like user-friendliness, media longevity etc. which are still a huge question mark. Total HD is a "solution" that will allow Studios (and also some users) to buy some time and see which way it goes. Most buyers will watch from the sidelines until major questions are answered to their FULL satisfaction.

[ozymango]

Ozymango, don't get too excited... Looks like you're very HD hungry.

Heh heh heh ... chortle ... guffaw ... !!! Not laughing at you, but the idea that I'm HD "hungry." I'm just having fun yakking about stuff.

As a techno-geek-guy, my collection of video and audio stuff, includes -- right now, on my shelves at home:

Audio cassette
Beta
Umatic
VHS
Laserdisc player
CED player (but only 2 movies)
DVD player (and burners)
Hi8, 8mm video
S8, 16mm film
35mm SLR camera
DV video camera
Quadrophonic amp (with lots of blinky lights!)
Bunch of useless outdated stuff I just can't bear to part with.

But no HD stuff. And my TV is ten years old. :P

As far as technologies go, I am more than well aware that a heck of a lot of stuff I like just doesn't take off in the world market. And I didn't get my first DVD player until about 2000, so yeah, I waited.

If you look at any of these changes as being simply about technology, you limit yourself severely. Technogeeks like us can banter back and forth about what's better, worse, whatever, but it's never about the technology. It's about what you do with the technology. Which means, the format "war," is about watching movies. Disc size for burning, who's gonna buy a PS3 vs. XBOX, that's all fine and dandy, but that's not the market that's gonna make or break which format comes out on top.

Yes yes yes of COURSE it's too early to make anything beyond an educated guess about a lot of this stuff, but I'll tell you this: Follow The Porn.

EDIT: Frankly and seriously I wanna give a big THANK YOU to anybody out there who has purchased an HD or Blu-Ray DVD player -- because of your investment, guys like me who are cautious cheapskates can sit back and wait for prices to drop and one format to become more dominant, and really the only reason we can do this is because you guys are willing to go out and pay for this stuff right now.

[xxiangg]

What excactly does this prove? It simple means you can buy them now on Amazon and Walmart and BestBuy, which you weren't able to one month ago. FYI the circuit city ones are sold out.

You have one poster to a forum that states people have returned 12 PS3 because they could not sell them on Ebay. That's hardly a dis-satisfied customer returning a PS3. Not too mention do we have any way of verifying this?

The PS3 comes out in November and already people want to declare it a failure in January!

Come on. :P

Well, it proves that the hype for PS3 is over. It means
that if you want a PS3, you can get it at its MSRP. It
means that supply and demand is in balance and PS3 is no
longer is short supply. It is foturnate that Sony had a
parts shortage, so that they could not ship as many as
PS3's as they planned at initial launch. Otherwise, it
would have been a big dispointment.

Talking about HD and BR initial launch, I read that both
have its weakness. But Toshiba's HD did far better than
Sumsang's BR. If BR camp hoped PS3 would change the initial
balance soon. I do not see it is happening.

Just googled "returned PS3", and found many interesting
stories. Then, googled "returned Wii", this is what I
got, "PS3’s being returned to stores; Nintendo Wii’s
sold out again". BTW, all googled stories are at least
a week old. If you google it next week, it will be more
funs!

No one declared a winner or a loser yet. Just some facts.

[doppletwo]

the PS3 will inevitably outsell the 360.

I don't see how that is possible.

PS platforms have traditionally outsold their XBOX counterpart - PS2=111million, XBOX=24million to date.

The 360 has averaged monthly sales of around 250,000 since launch - PS3 sold nearly 200,000 in its first month despite restricted supply.

Backwards compatibility of the PS3 will mean that PS2 buyers are more likely to purchase a PS3 instead of the 360.

Stands to reason...

Quite frankly, I find the notion that the PS3 will have any influence of Blu-Ray to be laughable. It's a video game, not a movie player. Regardless of how much companies may push for "multimedia entertainment centers", that concept is simply not catching on or being used by anybody but a niche of video-minded techies.

Don't you remember that the PS2 forced the price of DVD players down?



But the PS2-DVD relationship was different then the PS3-Bluray relationship is.



When the PS2 came out the DVDs had been out for three or four years. Every average joe knew what a DVD player was and wanted one.



The PS2 was $300 dollars and was the the most advanced video game console when it was released. When the PS2 was release the cheapest DVD player was $250 when it was on sale.



The PS2 forced down the price of DVD players. The PS2 is the highest selling DVD player model.



Most normal people ( non-geeks "normies" I like to call them ) are only vaguely aware that Bluray and HD DVD even exist.



The PS3 is cheap for a Bluray player, but it has problems displaying 720p which is what most people have, if they have an HDTV at all which most people don't.

[lordsmurf]

The PS2 had nothing to do with pricing on DVD players. The downward pricing curve was pretty much normal. The PS2 was not even a ripple in the graph. As much as video games have become popular, they really only affect each other, not adjacent markets. At most, it might help sell a few more tv sets. But even then, not really. The $150 DVD player price of 2001 was the $125 price of 2002. Hardly a major change. Chinese production is what avalanched pricing in 2003-2004, those under-cost Apex players that landed the CEO in prison.

The PS3 was all about eBay buyers and insane rich kids/parents buying them. Even a few days after the PS3 came out, prices started to come down. That first day rush of sell-outs was followed by many days of dust-collecting units in stores. There were many returns too, from folks unable to cash in on the gouge-fest, or were not paid for their stupid auctions. Where I live, the PS3 was never sold out for more than a couple of days. It's about time people see the light about eBay first-day releases, and just wait it out a week or two. Standing in line overnight to buy something is pure idiocy..

Games are games. The most they might affect is the sales of disc production. The duplication facilities are the real winners.

[bbanderic]

Anyone, including Sony, who thinks the PS3 will have a major impact which platform wins the HD DVD / Blu Ray format war are suffering from a severe case of wishfull thinking. Most folks who have the luxury of owning an HD TV at this time only own 1, and are highly unlikely to let their kids/siblings play their video games on it. Most gamers usually have a second TV in the house for gaming.

In the end, the vast majority of people who own PS3 and xbox 360's will be using these consoles on SD TV's, therefore making the HD playback irrelevent. For the most part, they just want to play the games and don't care about all the other stuff right now. I think the HD playback capabilities of gaming consoles will come into play more in the next gen of gaming consoles, PS4 and Xbox (720?)

[doppletwo]

The PS2 had nothing to do with pricing on DVD players. The downward pricing curve was pretty much normal. The PS2 was not even a ripple in the graph. As much as video games have become popular, they really only affect each other, not adjacent markets. At most, it might help sell a few more tv sets. But even then, not really. The $150 DVD player price of 2001 was the $125 price of 2002. Hardly a major change. Chinese production is what avalanched pricing in 2003-2004, those under-cost Apex players that landed the CEO in prison.

The PS2 was released in 2000, not 2001. ( the Xbox and Gamcube were released in 2001 ) In 2000 the low price for a DVD player was $300-400, unless you found one on sale.




So from 2000 to 2001 there was a nearly 50% reduction in price in the low end DVD player to $150.




And compare the market saturation and price reduction graphs of the DVD player to VCRs, CD players, Cellphones, and especially HDTV since it was released the closest to DVD players.




The DVD player blows them all of the water on both graphs.

[lordsmurf]

In 1999-2000, the average price of a DVD player was about $200-300. Hardly a 50% drop when players still sold in the $150-200 range in 2001. Again, PS2 had really no effect. You're taking unrelated data, seemingly seeing connections where none exist, and making conclusions that are divorced from reality. DVD players pretty much followed the typical technology/video pricing curve as it entered higher productions. The PS2 was not even a sideshow. Just like the PS3 (or even the XBOX 360) has little to no effect on HD discs.

In fact, to further prove your ideas on PS2 influencing DVD player sales is faulty, let's look earlier in the timeline. From 1996-1997, players dropped from about $750 to about $450. What video game system caused that?

It continued to tumble yearly (up to 25-50% per year) until it really started to bottom out in 2003-2004. Again, that was due to high Chinese production sold in large stores like Walmart. Where was the video games in 2003-2004 that caused DVD players to drop at the biggest dropping point ever? (Almost 75% in some cases.)

.... then there's always the fact that we're talking about "latest and greatest" technology (HD-DVD, BluRay) that was neither asked for nor very advantageous over current tech (tried-and-true DVD-Video).

Time to face facts. Video games are just games. They do not wield power over other markets. You need only look at the numerous failed movies, cartoons, anime, comics, books and toys, based off video game properties. (The only exception that comes to mind might be Pokemon, but it's hardly the rule.)