Editorial: Why "HD DVD" Is Thumping "Blu-ray Disc"

[MozartMan]

Hey Specialist,

why don't you just go to 7-eleven and buy 6-pack and celebrate the death of Blue-ray?

[paulw]

In contrast, when VHS beat out betamax, we were stuck with a product that improved little for over 20 years. I hope everyone enjoys their brief moment gloating over the HD-DVD victory, because in the end, you always pay more in a monopoly.

And if Blu-ray wins you don't think the same will happen??

[Specialist]

Gizmodo's latest article on XBox 360 sales:

http://tinyurl.com/y8yvwb

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Specialist]

Hey Specialist,

why don't you just go to 7-eleven and buy 6-pack and celebrate the death of Blue-ray?

Because you've already cleaned out the 7-11 refrigerator, MozartMonkey.



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[MozartMan]

Hey Specialist,

why don't you just go to 7-eleven and buy 6-pack and celebrate the death of Blue-ray?

Because you've already cleaned out the 7-11 refrigerator, MozartMonkey.



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

Sorry, I don't drink beer.

[rhegedus]

Again... where are the grass roots supporters of "Blu-ray Disc?"

I'm still searching...

Your search must be as accurate as the data on the DVD wars site (as it makes the assumption that amazon is the only supplier of DB/HD).


http://forum.blu-ray.com/

[Conquest10]

the PS3 will inevitably outsell the 360.

I don't see how that is possible.

[ozymango]

\As Blu-Ray comes as standard on the PS3, no PS3 buyer will buy a HD-DVD system as well - that alone will give Blu-Ray a sizeable advantage.

Can't agree with you on this -- why the automatic assumption that if one has a hardware media player/drive in one piece of equipment, one might not also want another piece of hardware equipment for other uses?

Put another way: I've got a DVD player, that connects to my TV. I've also got a DVD burner/player that fits in my computer. I use both.

Some people play games on their computers, and also play games on other dedicated gaming consoles. Are you saying that PS3 buyers/gamers will only use PS3 devices?

The danger is comparing apples to oranges -- the Blu-Ray device in a PS3 can be used to play back movies, but it's required as a gaming feature. That is, I can buy a game for my PS3 (if I had a PS3) that needs to have a blu-ray device so I can play the game, but I can't then put that PS3 game disk into my blu-ray player and have the game function as a movie.

I may have a PS3, then, and also a computer, and also a TV, and also a home theater system, and I may have duplicate devices in this chain (like multiple DVD players/recorders), depending on what hardware I have.

Don't forget, whatever movie format you have (HD or Blu-Ray), you can watch them on your HDTV. Importantly, you need an HDTV or comparable monitor in order to watch a Blu-Ray movie on your PSP3, so it doesn't have a viewing advantage over an HD player.

Meaning, you can buy your games in one format, and your movies in another, and frankly you won't care which format is which as long as it plays back on your TV.

[ozymango]

Everyone compares this situation to VHS vs betamax, but a better comparison would be to compare it to Intel vs AMD processors. In this comparison, people would realize that we should support both formats.

I'm fine with supporting both formats, but I disagree that HD/Blu-Ray is like AMD/Intel. I think it's closer to Mac-PC -- point being, you can run Windows or Linux on either AMD or Intel chipsets.

But you can't run OSX on a PC. You've got to buy a Mac for that.

The way around that, is just buy two platforms ... but that often means also buying different software for each, which is where people often start to balk.

Also I do think this is closer to VHS/Betamax, just because technology keeps changing the way we store data (including movies). I can (sort of) run DOS on a current PC, but I can't put a VHS tape in my DVD player. So there may be a "format" out there that'll make a spinning disc storage device become the less favorite/popular way of watching movies.

I do suspect that's still quite a ways off, but I do take note of how fast iTunes has impacted CD sales.

[doppletwo]

With optical discs can't two ( or even three ) formats survive since the profit margin is so much higher than it was with magnetic tape cassettes?




Wasn't Superman Returns released on all three optical video disc formats?




Aren't games are sometimes released on six or more platforms (i. e. Splinter Cell for the XBox, Xbox360, Gamecube, PS2, PC, N-Gage, other cellphones, GBA, etc.) and porting costs alot more than converting a video to a different format?

[Bigdaddybrat]

If I may add my two cents (for what its worth)...

One thing to remember is that SONY does own movie studios and as long as they do, they will put their product on the media that they support... hence the reason why you see alot of TV commecials for the movie releases saying "on DVD and Blueray".... Sony is still making Minidisks right? I think you can only buy them in the "SONY Store"

Another thing that may be more of a question...

I have read that the new HDMI 2 that is soon to come out will handle HUGE bandwiths for information and HDMI is saying that this will support the next generation of high def with insane amounts of resolution... so in a round about way... to play a high def video at lets say 2X the rez of the current high def sets, won't a disk like Blueray be valuble? Would you not require huge amounts of storage for a resolution of that amount?

I'm going to sit back and watch everyone else duke it out... I still have a beta machine sitting at home in the closet... anybody want some old tapes!

[SingSing]

Wasn't Superman Returns released on all three optical video disc formats?

You are right. Warner Brother released it in :

BR
DVD widescreen
DVD full screen
DVD 2 disc special edition
DVD
HD

The studio is working to sell to all three camps : BR, HD, and DVD is good enough.

Note : Please wait for PSP and videoNow versions.

[rhegedus]

\As Blu-Ray comes as standard on the PS3, no PS3 buyer will buy a HD-DVD system as well - that alone will give Blu-Ray a sizeable advantage.

Can't agree with you on this -- why the automatic assumption that if one has a hardware media player/drive in one piece of equipment, one might not also want another piece of hardware equipment for other uses?

Because if someone has just spent nearly a grand on a Blu-Ray system they are unlikely to spend a similar amount on a HD-DVD system when they could use that money to buy Blu-Ray movies.

[rhegedus]

the PS3 will inevitably outsell the 360.

I don't see how that is possible.

PS platforms have traditionally outsold their XBOX counterpart - PS2=111million, XBOX=24million to date.

The 360 has averaged monthly sales of around 250,000 since launch - PS3 sold nearly 200,000 in its first month despite restricted supply.

Backwards compatibility of the PS3 will mean that PS2 buyers are more likely to purchase a PS3 instead of the 360.

Stands to reason...

[Specialist]

While the game console battle is a factor, it isn't the only factor.

I think another big reason why the Blu-ray Disc seems to be trailing at this point in history is the obvious contradiction that seems to be emerging in this "format war."

Blu-ray Disc -- with its long list of supporters -- should have established itself by now if it were truly the "winning" format.

It hasn't.

People are still scratching their heads and wondering.

Is that a sign of a "winning" format?



As time continues to pass, I keep going back to this editorial...

http://tinyurl.com/f2zzs

It is a very likely event that high definition DVD will be something that isn’t relevant in a service-directed marketplace. Add to this Apple Computer’s recent push for video downloads and we may find that consumers are far more interested in quantity, portability, and ease of use over high quality source material. Even with respect to high definition formats, downloadable files burned to consumer-supplied media may make data high definition DVDs more significant than the retail formats. This consumer model is being readied for testing in South Carolina’s head-end for Time Warner Cable this year.

The guy who wrote that editorial makes some compelling points.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Conquest10]

PS platforms have traditionally outsold their XBOX counterpart - PS2=111million, XBOX=24million to date.

Well, the PS2 was out for over a year and a half before the XBOX was released (and was released even before the XBOX development was announced). In fact, it is STILL sold new right now at the ridiculous price of $130 (try to find a brand new XBOX at Besy Buy). By your logic, the 360 should come out ahead.

Backwards compatibility of the PS3 will mean that PS2 buyers are more likely to purchase a PS3 instead of the 360.

How so? The 360 is $200 cheaper. If they want to continue playing their PS2 games they can purchase a brand new PS2 and a 360 for less than what a PS3 costs. Not to mention that the PS3's PS2 compatibility is a little suspect.

[Specialist]

Here's another recent editorial suggesting "HD DVD" has an early edge over "Blu-ray Disc" at this point in history:

http://tinyurl.com/yxje99

The battle between HD DVD and Blu-ray is far from over, but it's becoming clear that HD DVD will win round one – this season the tepidly reviewed and impossible to find PlayStation 3 (SNE) is the only Blu-ray player that comes close to being reasonably priced (at $500), while discounted HD DVD players can be found during this holiday season for about $415 – and the Xbox 360 (MSFT) add-on is $199. What's not yet clear is whether HD DVD backers will be able to ride their early momentum through 2007, when the high-definition movement is sure to gain steam.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[ozymango]

Because if someone has just spent nearly a grand on a Blu-Ray system they are unlikely to spend a similar amount on a HD-DVD system when they could use that money to buy Blu-Ray movies.

You are assuming a completely stagnant system where both discs (HD and blu-ray) remain at the same price point as today, forever and ever amen, which I simply cannot imagine.

True, nobody wants to drop a grand on one system and then drop another grand on another, but if these are the only choices, you'll never see Blu-Ray take off. Period. It just ain't worth it.

Blu-Ray and/or HD will start selling when the prices for movie players drop to the point where they become a value-added feature for your average viewer. Movie viewer, not game viewer.

As I noted earlier, your PSP3 user ain't buying a gaming console just to watch movies. They need to buy the PSP3 as currently configured and priced in order to play PS3 games. That's one thing, right there.

But for Blu-Ray movies to become popular, the price of the player must come down. And if/when it does, you can bet HD-DVD will be right beside, or even ahead, of them.

As prices change, the person who bought a PS3 and has a stack of Blu-Ray flicks, may just find that he can pick up an HD-DVD player for $150.

And this person might then think, "Hey, I've already got the Blu-Ray player. Under two hundred bucks is nothing to pay for a new movie player so I can watch even more stuff."

Sure, it'll take a while before prices drop. But they will drop, and ain't nobody gonna be paying a grand for any movie players at your local Wal-Mart.

EDIT: I hope it's clear that I'm approaching this whole "format war" more as an opportunity to consider a whole bunch of (to me fascinating) stuff about technology and marketing, and I'm not looking to "trash" Blu-Ray in any way. I know the blunt title of this thread is why HD is "thumping" Blu-Ray, which I consider a teaser to hook the reader into all sorts of conversation.

[rhegedus]

PS platforms have traditionally outsold their XBOX counterpart - PS2=111million, XBOX=24million to date.

Well, the PS2 was out for over a year and a half before the XBOX was released (and was released even before the XBOX development was announced). In fact, it is STILL sold new right now at the ridiculous price of $130 (try to find a brand new XBOX at Besy Buy). By your logic, the 360 should come out ahead.

And that makes up the 87 million difference?

Backwards compatibility of the PS3 will mean that PS2 buyers are more likely to purchase a PS3 instead of the 360.

How so? The 360 is $200 cheaper. If they want to continue playing their PS2 games they can purchase a brand new PS2 and a 360 for less than what a PS3 costs. Not to mention that the PS3's PS2 compatibility is a little suspect.

The 360 has been out for over a year and is still outsold by the PS2 by 4:1. People would rather buy Sony than Microsoft. When the PS3 price comes down and the scalpers have gone, the 360 will be belly up.

Provided TRC is adhered to, backwards compatibility isn't a major issue:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3#Backward_compatibility

[rhegedus]

Because if someone has just spent nearly a grand on a Blu-Ray system they are unlikely to spend a similar amount on a HD-DVD system when they could use that money to buy Blu-Ray movies.

You are assuming a completely stagnant system where both discs (HD and blu-ray) remain at the same price point as today, forever and ever amen, which I simply cannot imagine.

True, nobody wants to drop a grand on one system and then drop another grand on another, but if these are the only choices, you'll never see Blu-Ray take off. Period. It just ain't worth it.

True, but when one drops, the other will follow - neither wants to be caught with their pants down.

Back before the Sony (where have I heard that? DRU500) and DVD burners were either - or +, how many people bought one of each type of burner? You could invite them all around to diner and still have a few chairs spare. Likewise, with BD and HD DVD, they are two distinct and separate entities with virtually no crossover support. That's the way it will stay (unless someone develops a multi-format player).

[rhegedus]

That said, I just checked out the list of released title for both formats, and neither has enough of my current collection of DVDs that would make me want to buy a BD/HD player.

I also doubt that some of the older films would warrant a high-definition conversion. Anyone know the resolution of the original reel media?

[Conquest10]

And that makes up the 87 million difference?



The 360 has been out for over a year and is still outsold by the PS2 by 4:1. People would rather buy Sony than Microsoft. When the PS3 price comes down and the scalpers have gone, the 360 will be belly up.

You seem to be ignoring what I said. The PS2 is $130. That plus the fact that it has been on sale for almost three years more than the XBOX accounts for it (sales of used XBOXes are not counted).

The PS2 is outselling the 360 by 4:1? And the 360 is outselling the PS3 by almost 13:1. What does that say? People will buy the cheaper alternative. And I don't see Sony dropping the absurd price of the PS3 anytime soon.

[adam]

Geesh these formats have only just gotten out of the starting gate and they both are still firmly stuck in a niche market. HD-DVD has seen better penetration in the market (more titles, more sales of movies and players) but it was released to market earlier and its much cheaper...now. Price differences could become insignificant overnight after production costs level off. I'll check back in on this discussion in about two years. I'm sure both formats will still be battling it out then.

I also doubt that some of the older films would warrant a high-definition conversion. Anyone know the resolution of the original reel media?

35mm has been the international standard since 1909. Most older films have roughly the same effective resolution as the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Even low budget films or tv series from the past were mostly shot on at least 16mm film which is still much higher in resolution than what HD video can support. Bottom line is that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray still pale in comparison to the quality of film. The problem though is that alot of those old masters are severely degraded and cannot be properly restored at all, or at least not without it being cost prohibitive.

[kisrum]

The format that eventually wins is never determined by the tiny percentage of dweeb early adopters who rush to drop a grand on each new system (quadraphonic anyone?). It's determined by what middle age middle period adopters can afford and can make work. I'm going to relax for a generation and enjoy netflix DVDs. There are still people waiting breathlessly for their favorite movie of 1967 to come out on DVD. Do you think they're going to buy a new monitor and new format player just so that movie will look 0.05% better to their 63 year-old eyes, if it ever gets released at all?

That said, if Sony owns the game market the way some of the earlier posts about PS2 seem to indicate, then my money is eventually on blu-ray. Astonishingly good looking movies in the home are yesterday's news. Astonishingly good looking games are today and tomorrow's very big news.

Which format do you think netflix will eventually settle on, or are they making their money as fast as they can before online delivery renders this entire discussion moot?

[genki500]

We all know how businessmen make decisions: they look at numbers. By the end of this year, because of PS3, there will be 4-6 millions Blue-Ray players; HD-DVD player? If lucky enough, half million, maybe? That does not mean Blue-Ray already wins - it is very difficult for Blue-Ray to lose the early battle. When Sony did not open its formats to others, it lost big time (Betamax, miniDisk, PSP.) ; Blue-Ray is not the same story, many companies are in with Sony. Blue-Ray movie priced at USD $30, not outrageous high, it would be smart if the price is as same as DVD. Sony has history of screwing up its good stuff, can't wait to see how Sony does it again, or not.

[xxiangg]

We all know how businessmen make decisions: they look at numbers. By the end of this year, because of PS3, there will be 4-6 millions Blue-Ray players; HD-DVD player? If lucky enough, half million, maybe? That does not mean Blue-Ray already wins - it is very difficult for Blue-Ray to lose the early battle. When Sony did not open its formats to others, it lost big time (Betamax, miniDisk, PSP.) ; Blue-Ray is not the same story, many companies are in with Sony. Blue-Ray movie priced at USD $30, not outrageous high, it would be smart if the price is as same as DVD. Sony has history of screwing up its good stuff, can't wait to see how Sony does it again, or not.

4-6 millions PS3? Is it a wishful thinking or what? If you are talking about Wii, I may believe it.

[rhegedus]

You seem to be ignoring what I said. The PS2 is $130. That plus the fact that it has been on sale for almost three years more than the XBOX accounts for it (sales of used XBOXes are not counted).

If price was an issue, what stopped the similarly priced XBOX from matching PS2 sales in the last five years?

Adding XBOX and 360 sales together still only comes to 30 million in total...

[rhegedus]

35mm has been the international standard since 1909. Most older films have roughly the same effective resolution as the latest Hollywood blockbuster. Even low budget films or tv series from the past were mostly shot on at least 16mm film which is still much higher in resolution than what HD video can support. Bottom line is that HD-DVD and Blu-Ray still pale in comparison to the quality of film. The problem though is that alot of those old masters are severely degraded and cannot be properly restored at all, or at least not without it being cost prohibitive.

I learn something every time I come here

I thought HD versions of old B+W like Casablanca were more of a show than an improvement - obviously not.

[RLT69]

HD format wars end in compromise
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36708

"With Sony's muscles behind the Blu-ray format, and consequent pressure on Hollywood, we're ready to suggest HD DVD will soon be dead in the water.

Anyone believing that the world won't be flooded with PS3s within 12 months is either luddite or vole."

So there you have it HD DVD is dead. Phew, glad that's over :P

[Sam Ontario]

It means Blue ray absorbs/accept HD format. All win when prices come down below $100-