Editorial: Why "HD DVD" Is Thumping "Blu-ray Disc"

[ROBERT BLACK]

*Deleted*

[WiReTaP]

I'll tell you why HD-DVD is thumping Blu-ray. I just paid $160 after coupon for the Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive and hooked it up to my PC and started watching HD-DVD movies in 1080p.

[ROBERT BLACK]

Futureshop here in Canada has 2 Blu-Ray burners. Can't find a HD-DVD burner or blank discs to save my soul.....

HD-DVD burners and blank disks don't exist.

Not in hockey town maybe... :P



http://www.thesourcecc.com/estore/Product.aspx?language=en-CA&catalog=Online&category=...roduct=2617904

[MozartMan]

Futureshop here in Canada has 2 Blu-Ray burners. Can't find a HD-DVD burner or blank discs to save my soul.....

HD-DVD burners and blank disks don't exist.

Not in hockey town maybe... :P

http://www.thesourcecc.com/estore/Product.aspx?language=en-CA&catalog=Online&category=...roduct=2617904

15 GB, 1x, $25 - Ha-ha!

Where are HD-DVD burners????

On the other note take a look at this:

http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.asp?DEPA=0&type=&Description=bd&Submit=ENE&N...&Go.x=0&Go.y=0

[rhegedus]

I'll tell you why HD-DVD is thumping Blu-ray. I just paid $160 after coupon for the Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive and hooked it up to my PC and started watching HD-DVD movies in 1080p.

Watching HD movies on on a PC via an XBOX360 with a $160 drive is not a reason why HD-DVD is thumping Blu-ray.

If you had a HD TV then you could plug your XBOX360 straight into that, but you haven't so you're watching HD on a 19", maybe 24" monitor.


That was worth it....

[ozymango]

If history is any indicator, the format that can hold more information is typically the format that wins.

Like laserdiscs?

[MozartMan]

If history is any indicator, the format that can hold more information is typically the format that wins.

Like laserdiscs?

No, Like VHS.

[ozymango]

No, Like VHS.

Yes, VHS is definitely the format of choice today.

[Conquest10]

it's hard to see where the 'thumping' is taking place...

In the US (where it matters).

Where are HD-DVD burners????

Yes, burners are the be all end all.

[rhegedus]

it's hard to see where the 'thumping' is taking place...

In the US (where it matters).

Really, how so?

Where are HD-DVD burners????

Yes, burners are the be all end all.

The availablity of burners for set-tops in the home market will be a major factor in deciding who wins.

[KitDoc]

Thumping??
I would hardly call 42000 X-box HD DVD drives vs. 195000 PS3 sales thumping...
Look at the charts of Amazon's title sales and price. HD DVD is not running away with the show...
Look at the new computers selling with HD drives. HD DVD ones only sell with players, not burners like Blu-ray, and there are significantly more manufacturers that are making Blu-ray burners.
I agree with rhegedus. When people want to burn their stuff, they want capacity, and HD DVD just doesn't cut it.
Toshiba's XA-2, which has been plagued with quality control delays, is the only HD DVD device that supports HDMI 1.3, to be able to deliver true 1080p, and will cost $1000 like Blu-ray.
For the average consumer, watching HD video on a PC not only involves the cost of the drive, but also the graphics card capable of output, along with a widescreen LCD, and HD capable software. So this is not exactly a cheap option for everyone.

[RottenFoxBreath]

Thumping??

Toshiba's XA-2, which has been plagued with quality control delays, is the only HD DVD device that supports HDMI 1.3, to be able to deliver true 1080p, and will cost $1000 like Blu-ray.
For the average consumer, watching HD video on a PC not only involves the cost of the drive, but also the graphics card capable of output, along with a widescreen LCD, and HD capable software. So this is not exactly a cheap option for everyone.

all hdmi.1.x are capable of 1080p,so id put that nugget of information back in the turdmine you found it in...
and as for hdmi1.3,thats only as good as the tv/sound system its connected to,and as for now,nothing really supports it.

[KitDoc]

Mr. RottenFoxBreath,
First, there was no reason to make a rude comment. Information direct from Toshiba and from the HDMI organization is sufficient.

Secondly, you should also know that whilst HDMI is capable of 1080p below the 1.3 spec., it is up to the manufacturer to implement it. And the point here, which you clearly seemed to have missed, is that Toshiba decided to go the low-cost hardware route, in addition to subsidizing nearly $275 per unit, until the higher quality XA-2 comes out.

Let's put it another way, Toshiba has been flooding the market with "Does the job, but ain't the best you can get" hardware.
It works for many people, and that's fine, but I'm not buying into it.

[RLT69]

Yes, VHS is definitely the format of choice today.

Perhaps one too many eggnogs?

The illustration was used to show that in a format war the format that has the greater flexbility, in this case storage, will win out. VHS trumped Betamax because, among other things, of its' storage capability. VHS tape could hold more video.

As it stands HD-DVD has no compelling attribute over Blu-ray. The picture quality is the same. You are left with cost and storage as reasons why one format would win over the other. Since both formats JUST came out, cost is not a factor yet since prices will drop. After prices stabilize, IF Blu-ray is going to cost more than HD-DVD, THEN I can see HD-DVD beating Blu-ray. If cost is equal, then storage capacity will be the deciding factor.

Right now it's too early to say which one will win.

[dphirschler]

Blu-ray has a cooler name.


Darryl

[oldfart13]

Futureshop here in Canada has 2 Blu-Ray burners. Can't find a HD-DVD burner or blank discs to save my soul.....

HD-DVD burners and blank disks don't exist.

Not in hockey town maybe... :P



http://www.thesourcecc.com/estore/Product.aspx?language=en-CA&catalog=Online&category=...roduct=2617904

Even so, how is HD DVD thumping Blu-Ray when on the same site I see this:

http://www.thesourcecc.com/estore/Category.aspx?language=en-CA&catalog=Online&category...1D2F236B68B5BA

[ozymango]

Yes, VHS is definitely the format of choice today.

Perhaps one too many eggnogs?

I was just making a tongue-in-cheek comment aimed at your comment about greater storage size winning out. I think it's more complex than that.

Though I suppose it depends a lot on timing and perspective -- you say VHS has more "storage capability" than Beta. That's sometimes true, sometimes not. It's true if you mean that VHS managed to fit 2 hours on a cassette before Beta did, and thus more movies got released on VHS first, and thus they had the head start and all that stuff.

But "capacity" is relative -- a Beta L-750 used to cost the same as a VHS T-120 (I know, I've still got about a thousand VHS and Beta tapes I bought during the 80's and 90's), and you can fit 3 hours of video in SP mode on a L-750 tape, versus 2 hours in SP on a T-120. Ironically, it was because of this "increased storage capacity" that I loved and used Beta so much. But pure capacity didn't win out in the end, due to a bunch of issues that were more about whatever it is that customers wanted, versus what we think they want.

That's why I brought up the Laserdisc issue -- yes, you can "only" fit 30 minutes of video (CAV mode) on one side of an LD (60 mins. for CLV), so perhaps LDs didn't take off due to "storage capacity," though I suspect it was more about people just didn't like:

1) Big discs
2) Having to flip the discs

In terms of what the "capacity" of LDs are, I can't remember anymore, but I still have a test LD somewhere that has about 52,000 photographs on it, in CAV mode, that still look gorgeous on a TV monitor. That's a lot of capacity.

As it stands HD-DVD has no compelling attribute over Blu-ray. The picture quality is the same. You are left with cost and storage as reasons why one format would win over the other. Since both formats JUST came out, cost is not a factor yet since prices will drop. After prices stabilize, IF Blu-ray is going to cost more than HD-DVD, THEN I can see HD-DVD beating Blu-ray. If cost is equal, then storage capacity will be the deciding factor.

That's an awful big if, and as you note, this assume that price is equal. That's a very, very big deal -- of course you'll take one thing over another if one gives you the same thing, but more of it, for the same price!

But I think it's dangerous to bet too much on the single idea "capacity" -- if the target is the world viewing market (which I suspect is what the movie companies are looking for), you just need to be able to fit one movie on one disk. That's all. The extras are nice, but they're frosting on the cake.

We had to go to some form of higher capacity disk simply because we couldn't fit a better picture on the same size disc for now. But past that, "capacity" is a bit of a buzzword that really needs to be considered in a broader perspective. After all, dual layer recordable DVDs offer twice the capacity of your single layer disc ... but at (as far as I've been able to find) more than twice the cost. So the "capacity" of a DL disc is not yet my deciding factor in recording data and movies (for me) to single layer discs, and just having more discs to keep track of.

Yeah, it's a bit annoying, but there are complex market forces at work here. Mainly, I'm cheap, and I'll bet you dollars to donuts that my way of thinking is very common out there in TV land!

Right now it's too early to say which one will win.

Not at all! It's just too early to know if we'll be right or not!

That being said, I'll make my standard prediction that somebody else noted a while back -- I think that both format (HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) are basically DOA. Yup, by the time they reach any kind of "market share" at a level where they turn a profit, we'll have come up with a different way of watching/sharing/selling movies and neither format will have had the impact of either VHS or DVD.

So I'm not quite predicting total failure, but in terms of return on investment, I bet they'll both fade sooner than later.

Not that I'm holding my breath waiting to be proved right, but what the heck, it's fun to make predictions and see what happens.

[Specialist]

Although I posted the original link in this thread, I don't really see a clear winner, although I would say that "HD DVD" seems to be doing better in the market than "Blu-ray Disc" so far.

It very well could be true that neither format will emerge victorious.

Is it possible that "discs" are "dead?"

Look at the iTunes thing.

So many people are now downloading songs instead of buying physical discs from physical record stores.

I look around and I see "personal media players" everywhere.

And hard disk camcorders are gaining market share quickly.

At the same time, bandwidth -- online -- is expanding to the point where you can share large amounts of data much more easily today than you could just two years ago.

I'm thinking that "discs" may be losing to "disks."

Disks may emerge as the real winner.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Specialist]

Heads up.

Toshiba may be releasing cheaper "HD DVD" players next week.

http://tinyurl.com/y65jsp

Toshiba is taking the gloves off next week at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, where the company might introduce a third line of HD DVD players that will be even cheaper than its current versions. Toshiba chief Yoshihide Fujii offers this tantalizing hint: 'At first I thought the price threshold is $499. Maybe coming next is $399 and after that is $299.'

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[rhegedus]

I would say that "HD DVD" seems to be doing better in the market than "Blu-ray Disc" so far.

Based on what?

I just had a wiki at the members of the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD organisations. The Blu-Ray members are quite formidable with massive global coverage.

Another thing which was touched on previously are consoles like XBOX360 and Playstation 3. Sony's PS2 outsold the XBOX and the PS3 will inevitably outsell the 360. As Blu-Ray comes as standard on the PS3, no PS3 buyer will buy a HD-DVD system as well - that alone will give Blu-Ray a sizeable advantage.

If one also considers the storage capacity and that for the same price you can get a 25Gb Blu-Ray disc instead of a 15Gb HD-DVD disc, there really appears to be nothing going for HD-DVD.

[Specialist]

I would say that "HD DVD" seems to be doing better in the market than "Blu-ray Disc" so far.

Based on what?

Don't get me wrong.

I think "HD DVD" is winning so far, but I don't think the war is over.

Here is a recent story leaning in favor of "HD DVD" and the XBox 360:

It can easily be assumed that all 42,000 owners of the HD DVD drive are using that device specifically for HD DVD movie playback, since the device isn’t used in any form for video game playback (the Xbox 360 is equiped with a regular PC DVD drive, hence the need for an add-on).

Source: http://tinyurl.com/y6laug

Some more interesting arguments supporting the notion that "HD DVD" has an "edge" are here:

http://tinyurl.com/y8j57c

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[rhegedus]

But some interesting arguments supporting the notion that "HD DVD" has an "edge" are here:

http://tinyurl.com/y8j57c

Sounds more like a begging letter to Fox, Disney, MGM and Lions Gate..... "please, please, please support the High Definition DVD (HD DVD) disc format with more releases or we'll cry."

Unfortunately, Disney is part of the Blu-ray Disc Association and MGM is part owned by Sony.....

They're not going to undermine their own product by supporting a rival.

[Specialist]

Sounds more like a begging letter to Fox, Disney, MGM and Lions Gate..... "please, please, please support the High Definition DVD (HD DVD) disc format with more releases or we'll cry."

Maybe.

But where is the "Blu-ray Disc" faction Web site analog?

Do you see a group of people creating a Web site and pleading for the Blu-ray Disc case?

If so, where?

Link, please.



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[gotnotime]

I think that it is unfotunate that everyone seems to be jumping on th bandwagon of "trashing" the Blu-Ray format. The end result appears to be that HD DVD will prevail and the cosnumers will lose, and pay more. Everyone compares this situation to VHS vs betamax, but a better comparison would be to compare it to Intel vs AMD processors. In this comparison, people would realize that we should support both formats. Intel neraly had a monopoly on chips, but a few of us continued to buy AMD because you got more for your money. Eventually AMD gained a significant market share and this forced Intel to release faster chips sooner then they intended and the result of this competition resulted in a rapid speed increase and radical drops in pricing. that would not occured if AMD failed.

In contrast, when VHS beat out betamax, we were stuck with a product that improved little for over 20 years. I hope everyone enjoys their brief moment gloating over the HD-DVD victory, because in the end, you always pay more in a monopoly.

[rhegedus]

Do you see a group of people creating a Web site and pleading for the Blu-ray Disc case?

If so, where?

Link, please.

Call me a cynic, but not having to write begging letters is a good sign.

[Specialist]

As I said earlier, I suppose it's possible that one of the high definition DVD formats will "win."

However, I think it's also possible that neither will win.

There's a third option: direct downloads and sharing via personal media players and high speed Web connections.

I think it's way too early to celebrate any "victory" for "HD DVD."

"Blu-ray Disc" still has a chance.

So I don't see why you're lamenting at this early stage.



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Specialist]

Call me a cynic, but not having to write begging letters is a good sign.

That's what I suspected.

You can't provide such a link.

I don't know anything about this group that you label as "beggars."

However, their Web site seems to suggest there's a "grass roots" consumer ground swell in favor of "HD DVD" over "Blu-ray Disc."

Now, if you could show me some "grass roots" consumer movement in favor of "Blu-ray Disc," then I might be willing to concede it's an even match.

But whenever you have a "grass roots" campaign being waged on the Web, you can dismiss it as the work of a bunch of beggars, but it suggests to me that there might be something building in the minds of consumers.

On the other hand, the Web site might be a clever front orchestrated by corporations backing the "HD DVD" format.

Anything is possible.

But it does seem to suggest that -- for now -- the "HD DVD" format has the edge.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[rhegedus]

I think your grass roots [supporters] were trampled on in the rush to get a PS3 with Blu-Ray....

[Specialist]

Well, the grass roots supporters of the "HD DVD" format have an interesting take on that, too:

http://tinyurl.com/y7dh59

Although HD DVD has been outselling Bluray by a wide margin for the entire year so far since the launch of the two formats, some pundits were saying that the launch of the PS3 would reverse this lead. Arguably, the PS3 launch was Sony's LAST CHANCE to prove their strategy as correct. We, and others, feel it has failed miserably to do so.

Again... where are the grass roots supporters of "Blu-ray Disc?"

I'm still searching...



Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net

[Specialist]

New article about game player sales:

http://tinyurl.com/y4ba5l

Sony owned more than 50% of the market share in the last console cycle, but the new round poses a problem for the entertainment conglomerate, with buzz and praise for the Wii and Xbox 360 outpacing what was originally seen for the Gamecube and Xbox. Sony's slow start also means that the company is on an uphill battle from the beginning, and signals what could be a complete shake-up from what was seen in the last generation. According to today's estimates of NexGen Wars, a website that tracks game console sales, Sony has sold about 854,000 PS3s and Nintendo about 2.2 million Wiis since launch. Microsoft is estimated to have about 9.4 million Xbox 360 units in the market.

Jerry Jones
http://www.jonesgroup.net