U.S. Losing $20.5 Billion to Movie Pirates

[normcar]

In the meantime, I'm still going to let my congresspeople know how I feel on these issues, regardless of "expert" suggestion. Hopefully, they will listen to the PEOPLE, and not just those who have paid to have their ear.

HaaaHaaaHaaa, you are soooo funny!

[InXess]

In the meantime, I'm still going to let my congresspeople know how I feel on these issues, regardless of "expert" suggestion. Hopefully, they will listen to the PEOPLE, and not just those who have paid to have their ear.

Absolutely! Money is nothing compared with the power of your argument.

[Cornucopia]

I guess you 2 have already lost your hope.

Scott

[dLee]

Hope is important, but we need a plan.

The individuals and institutions that have seized control of our government and economic lives have a plan. They've been executing their plan for decades.

Part of their plan was to destroy the institutions through which the citizens could effect change. Been pretty successful, as far as I can tell.

We can change things, but we need to agree on a plan and execute it collectively.

[edDV]

I'm encouraged that Toshiba, Sony and the MPAA chickened out on HDCP for HD/BD DVD intro at the last minute. They probably discovered too many tech glitches and wanted to first get us hooked.

[jagabo]

I think what they "discovered" is that a large portion of the cutting edge buyers, the main target for HD players, had already bought HDTVs without HDMI/HDCP.

[ybeard]

I think they forgot to take into account all that piracy puts IN to the economy... Look at all of those jobs created by people buying burning hardware, media, etc. dws

[SingSing]

I think what they "discovered" is that a large portion of the cutting edge buyers, the main target for HD players, had already bought HDTVs without HDMI/HDCP.

Are the component video input supporting the 1080 resolution ? or another interface ?

[normcar]

I guess you 2 have already lost your hope.

Hope??? The consumer has lost virtually every right except for having to give large amounts of money for crap. There are no rights left, except to say "NO to buying DVDs and CDs with crap on them", and that seems to only further erode rights because it must be because pirates are the problem not the crap put out by movie and music studios.

[TBoneit]

Call me strange, however I do think some revenue is being lost to piracy. More revenue is being lost to poor product and not enough money to buy eberything just because it might be good.

Why I don't go to movie theatres? The Experience, the cost, and most importantly the commercials leave me wondering what the movie is actually about. They play things out of sequence in the Adverts (Coming attractions too) and I could care less about the raves for Special effects, If the plots no good SFX can't help.

I do believe MS is losing revenue to pirates. As many Pirate XP Pros as I see. Or the contiuning demand for Ofice 2000 and Windows 2000... No activation needed.

[normcar]

Call me strange, however I do think some revenue is being lost to piracy.

I do believe MS is losing revenue to pirates. As many Pirate XP Pros as I see. Or the contiuning demand for Ofice 2000 and Windows 2000... No activation needed.

Yes some revenue is being lost. However, the number of pirates of video is small compared with the pirates of CDs, which include many younger people. The pirates are still a very small % of the overall market. And some of the pirates probably purchase some of the movies anyway. Some probably dl to watch the movie early, then buy the DVD later if they like it. So the overall piracy rate probably affects the revenues somewhat, but 20.5 billion? That seems very very high.

The illegal DVDs sold in countries like China probably affect the amount more than the online pirates. The China market is still of people with relatively low incomes compared to ours, and DVDs are soooo overpriced, that they simply cannot afford them. But if you read the initial report, it seems as though all the money is being lost in the U.S., and it would be 100% recouped by eliminating online piracy (with a good copyprotection). This is just hype to instill the fear in polititions who don't look at the details of the #'s, just the #s of dollars contributed.

[SCDVD]

Another annoying thing about going to the theater is that you have no control over the sound volume level. There are times that it is just too loud. It can be almost painful to the ear.

It is really great to read a thread like this without some nut case turning it into his own recreational tirade. The recent banning of a particularly notorious social mutant has improved the atmosphere on this forum tremendously.

[normcar]

Another annoying thing about going to the theater is that you have no control over the sound volume level. There are times that it is just too loud. It can be almost painful to the ear.

How else are you going to hear the movie over the kids screaming, adults talking, and cell phones ringing? Increasing the volume is easier and cheaper than trying to quiet customers.

[SCDVD]

How else are you going to hear the movie over the kids screaming, adults talking, and cell phones ringing? Increasing the volume is easier and cheaper than trying to quiet customers.

Great point. You highlight the misery index of going to the theater very well.

[normcar]

How else are you going to hear the movie over the kids screaming, adults talking, and cell phones ringing? Increasing the volume is easier and cheaper than trying to quiet customers.

Great point. You highlight the misery index of going to the theater very well.

However, I forgot the best part of the theater experience. You get to pay a lot of money too.

[jagabo]

I think what they "discovered" is that a large portion of the cutting edge buyers, the main target for HD players, had already bought HDTVs without HDMI/HDCP.

Are the component video input supporting the 1080 resolution ? or another interface ?

Component and DVI both support 1080i.

[edDV]

I think what they "discovered" is that a large portion of the cutting edge buyers, the main target for HD players, had already bought HDTVs without HDMI/HDCP.

Are the component video input supporting the 1080 resolution ? or another interface ?

Component and DVI both support 1080i.

True but when HDCP is activated (triggered by copy protection), you will need an active HDCP handshake over DVI or HDMI (with valid keys) to get over 960x540p/23.976 (quater resolution) from a HD/BD DVD player. Analog componet outputs will downgrade to 960x540p/23.976 in all cases for copy blocked HD/BD DVDs.

It isn't clear to me whether the DVI/HDMI outputs go black or to 960x540 if the HDCP key isn't valid.

[adam]

I'm sure its all based on estimates. They estimate a movie will break records and make $5 billion and spend millions on marketing. The movie only makes $300 milllion. That's at least $4.7 billion (not counting marketing) in lost revenue due to movie pirates on that movie alone.

The study did not take into account profit projections for movies versus actual returns. The survey was conducted by interviewing individuals across the globe and asking them how many legitimate movies (theatre tickets, DVDs, etc..) they would have bought if pirated versions were not available.

I think its also worth noting that the $20.5 billion is in lost revenue, not lost profits. That makes all the difference in the world.

If you look at the numbers less than 1/6th of the losses come from the US. The vast majority of the losses are coming from pirating in China. To me, this survey is more of an estimate as to how much money the motion picture industry could make if they found a way to successfully market their industry in China.

[kicko]

maybe true but not every pirate copy is a lost sale, there are plenty of movies out there that i wouldn't mind watching but certainly not bother to go to the movies to see it, so in theory its not a lost sale because i would never have gone in the 1st place.

[SingSing]

True but when HDCP is activated (triggered by copy protection), you will need an active HDCP handshake over DVI or HDMI (with valid keys) to get over 960x540p/23.976 (quater resolution) from a HD/BD DVD player. Analog componet outputs will downgrade to 960x540p/23.976 in all cases for copy blocked HD/BD DVDs.

I read Sony and Toshiba are not supporting HDCP.

[adam]

maybe true but not every pirate copy is a lost sale, there are plenty of movies out there that i wouldn't mind watching but certainly not bother to go to the movies to see it, so in theory its not a lost sale because i would never have gone in the 1st place.

According to their methodolgy they would not have counted that as a lost sale either. They did not determine # of lost sales according to # of pirated copies. They asked people whether they actually would have bought movies, and how much $ they would have spent, if they hadn't obtained a pirated version instead. For the people they surveyed I think they probably did get a good idea as to how much the motion picture industry lost on them specifically due to pirating. What I feel uncomfortable with generally is the concept of taking 20,000 individual results and using that to determine results for the entire population. That just blows my mind. I don't think survey's based on personal opinions/statements are viable unless limited to a relatively small scope, like geographic area or industry segment.

[Supreme2k]

The survey was conducted by interviewing individuals across the globe and asking them how many legitimate movies (theatre tickets, DVDs, etc..) they would have bought if pirated versions were not available.

That's the biggest flaw right there. Unless those interview were on a lie-detector (maybe not even then), who knows what they would answer truthfully. Depending on how the question is worded is also a big factor:

"Would you illegally download a movie rather than buy it?"
""would you buy a movie if you could get it for free?"

are two vastly different ways to put the same question. I've taken surveys where the taker had to explain nearly every question due to the ambiguous wording.

Another flaw is the person's honesty. It's like asking "How many people have you had sex with?" in front of that person's significant other. Or how many people bought Britney Spear's Crossroads and will admit it (or download it)?

Opinion-type surveys are the worst. The numbers are simply not reliable.

[Conquest10]

The study did not take into account profit projections for movies versus actual returns. The survey was conducted by interviewing individuals across the globe and asking them how many legitimate movies (theatre tickets, DVDs, etc..) they would have bought if pirated versions were not available.

I think its also worth noting that the $20.5 billion is in lost revenue, not lost profits. That makes all the difference in the world.

If you look at the numbers less than 1/6th of the losses come from the US. The vast majority of the losses are coming from pirating in China. To me, this survey is more of an estimate as to how much money the motion picture industry could make if they found a way to successfully market their industry in China.

Then this is all BS. Most people buy bootlegs because they can't afford the real thing. A bootleg is, what, 10% what the real thing costs? In this country I think people buy bootlegs of movies they would NEVER spend any real money on.

This "survey" seems very flawed. Asking what they would rather pay than buying a bootleg DVD shouldn't count as lost revenue. I would love a Ferrari but would only want to spend $5000 for it so I guess I'm stuck with a Dart. Is that $5000 in lost revenue for Ferrari? No, because they would never sell me one of their cars for that little.

[adam]

That's not what they asked people Conquest10. They asked how much money they physically would have spent on movies if they had not obtained illegal copies instead. Maybe that means a prolific bootleg purchaser would have only bought one or two movies if they didn't have the capability to illegally obtain hundreds. That's still just one or two lost sales.

Its more like buying a Ferrari stolen off the production line for $5,000 when you would have bought a Dart instead. Dart is the one that lost $5,000 but we're talking about the collective industry here. The "automobile industry" just lost $5,000 because that money went to some crook on the street instead.

[edDV]

True but when HDCP is activated (triggered by copy protection), you will need an active HDCP handshake over DVI or HDMI (with valid keys) to get over 960x540p/23.976 (quater resolution) from a HD/BD DVD player. Analog componet outputs will downgrade to 960x540p/23.976 in all cases for copy blocked HD/BD DVDs.

I read Sony and Toshiba are not supporting HDCP.

They said not for the first round of HD/BD DVD releases. Have they said never since?

[Conquest10]

That's not what they asked people Conquest10. They asked how much money they physically would have spent on movies if they had not obtained illegal copies instead.

That's where its flawed. There is no way to legitimately purchase a new movie on DVD for $2. It cannot be counted as lost revenue if they don't sell it at that price.

Your car comparison doesn't work the same way here. It would be not the big studios that are losing money but the small ones that put public domain cartoons on DVD and sell them for $2-3. Pirates are hurting them because instead of these DVDs people can now purchase Hollywood movies for the same price. So they are the ones losing potential sales, not the big Hollywood studios.

[adam]

That's not what they asked people Conquest10. They asked how much money they physically would have spent on movies if they had not obtained illegal copies instead.

That's where its flawed. There is no way to legitimately purchase a new movie on DVD for $2. It cannot be counted as lost revenue if they don't sell it at that price.

Of course it can be counted as lost revenue. Money is money. If someone spends $100 on 50 bootleg DVDs they could have instead purchased 5 of those DVDs legitimately. If they admit they that would have purchased those 5 if bootlegs were not available, then that is 5 lost sales. It makes absolutely no difference that they never would have purchased the other 45, or that there's no way to purchase 50 legit DVDs at that same price. The question is how many more they physically would have purchased overall if pirating were not an option, and its the people themselves making this estimate.

Its a simple question. If you could not pirate DVDs would you buy more instead? If so how much more do you estimate that you'd spend?

[Conquest10]

Who spends $100 on bootlegs? How can it be counted as lost revenue if they cannot possibly get that money? Does Leica blame Walgreens for its financial problems because Walgreens sells film cameras for $5 with unlimited film refills? No because the people that buy the $5 cameras would never even think of spending $4000 on a film camera.

[adam]

For those people who are only willing to spend that small amount of money on films their answer to the question of the survey would be no, and it would not amount to an estimated lost sale. I really don't understand where you are going with this. People are perfectly capable of judging how much they would spend on a product from one source, if a cheaper source for it were no longer available. People do it every day.

$100, $1, use any numbers you like. The point is that people DO spend money on bootlegs and if they did not have this capability then that money would have gone somewhere else. Maybe a stick of gum, maybe into their bank accounts, or maybe towards the purchase of some smaller amount of legitimate DVDs.

[Nelson37]

Since I actually purchased a legit DVD of "Battlefield Earth" I feel I have done more than my fair share to support Hollywood. Hey, I really liked the book. If you don't know, the movie was only remotely similar and not very good.

On those rare occassions I do go to the theater, I take a jacket and put a cold Coke in one pocket and a Wendy's cheeseburger in the other. No $5.00 candy bars for me.

I AM excited about a trip to see an IMAX movie, 2-hour drive from home. The standard movie theater no longer offers something "special" over what I can get at home, and I haven't had the need to visit a drive-in since I got married. (I guess the two are kind of similar). There aren't any around here, anyway.

As has been said, there is little hard data here, only guesses. My favorite "survey" was when they put a guy outside a public restroom and asked people if they had washed their hands. Something like a 95% positive. Then they put the guy inside, asked no questions but simply stood by the sink with a clipboard, taking notes. Hand-washing around 75%. Then they took the guy out and put in a hidden camera. Actual numbers with no interference was around 60%.
No, they did not mention how many worked in the food service industry, but...