End-of-Life XP: what do you think will happen?

[TwistedLincoln]

What does WGA have to do with needing an upgrade?

My point was that with WGA Microsoft has control over your computer. Legal issues asside, they can shut you down whenever they feel like it, for whatever reason they want. And with Product Activation they can prevent you from simply reinstalling Windows XP to get around it.

False. As long as you remain within the license agreement the WGA after initial installation is never to be seen or heard from again.

Get a clue ROF. I'm not talking about the current use of WGA. I'm saying the code used in WGA and Product Activation demonstrates that Microsoft has the ability and willingness to shut your computer down. Today they do it when they think you are in violation of your license agreement. Tomorrow they could do it for any reason they want.

They own the software. You agreed to allow them to terminate their licensing agreement with you at anytime or for any reason. Actually, that is a clause included in just about every licensing agreement I read before installing any software I purchase. But your theory about Microsoft forcing an upgrade through WGA is just strange and maybe a little bit paranoid. Vista uses the same thing.

Clearly you aren't aware of Microsoft's end-game here. They've been positioning themselves to move to Subscription-Based licensing for quite a while now. I predict that the moment they retire Windows XP, they'll turn off the activation servers for XP Home and Pro... At that point, anyone who has bought a legitimate copy of XP will never be able to reinstall. They will esssentially be forcing you to upgrate.

WGA could easily be used in the same manner. They could simply put another "patch" in using automatic updates that causes your OS to lock you out if you fail the WGA check. You would then have to buy a new copy of Windows and enter the new key before you could continue using your PC. They already tried to impliment the first step to do this in Australia (see article here: http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,19670853%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html)

Product Activation is unacceptable. I will never use Windows XP, or any subsequent version of Windows that uses Activation. I have used my legally purchased version of Windows 2000 for several years now, specifically because I don't want to give Microsoft (or any other company, for that matter) the power to decide how, when, and if I use my computer.

[ROF]

Clearly you aren't aware of Microsoft's end-game here. They've been positioning themselves to move to Subscription-Based licensing for quite a while now. I predict that the moment they retire Windows XP, they'll turn off the activation servers for XP Home and Pro... At that point, anyone who has bought a legitimate copy of XP will never be able to reinstall. They will esssentially be forcing you to upgrate.

WGA could easily be used in the same manner. They could simply put another "patch" in using automatic updates that causes your OS to lock you out if you fail the WGA check. You would then have to buy a new copy of Windows and enter the new key before you could continue using your PC. They already tried to impliment the first step to do this in Australia (see article here: http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,19670853%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html)

Product Activation is unacceptable. I will never use Windows XP, or any subsequent version of Windows that uses Activation. I have used my legally purchased version of Windows 2000 for several years now, specifically because I don't want to give Microsoft (or any other company, for that matter) the power to decide how, when, and if I use my computer.

First off, what does having warnings pop up when you have outdated or invalid hardware or software installed that is not in agreement with the software license and forcing you to upgrade have to do with each other? Nothing unless you extend a fictious action. It would be a violation of their licensing agreement with me if they disallowed reactivation. I am quite sure several class action lawsuits would follow if Microsoft did this. This would further cause a ripple effect throughout Microsofts entire OEM business. I am quite sure that Microsoft will not be shutting down their activation servers anytime in the near future, but if they decide to in 10 years from now I doubt many people would notice. Have you installed the Windows Vista Beta? It makes Windows XP look like childs play and Win2K into a babys toy. In any case, 10 years from now try to find drivers for your hardware that is compatible with either OS.

Microsoft may not cut you off but your hardware makers will for certain.

Funny enough, Microsoft windows XP will probably still sell for over $100 at that time too. It just wouldn't be good business to sell it for less.

[mh2360]

Funny enough, Microsoft windows XP will probably still sell for over $100 at that time too. It just wouldn't be good business to sell it for less.

You don't get to become a Billionare by selling things at a small profit...

[TBoneit]

With reference to turning off the activation servers.

Have any of you ever used either a system restore from restore partition or used the Dell XP disc to reinstall XP. It comes pre-activated. No activation needed. FWIW the product key on the license on the machine does not match the product key of the pre-activated XP.

Stray thought: Every MS software purchse is also a donation to charity. Even Mr. Buffet thought enough of Bill Gates charity operations to donate big bucks for Bill to distribute.

No I don't think of MS as a evil empire either or a money cow as the EU seems to do.

[TBoneit]

Or you install XP on a clean drive and make your own system restore disc after activation. IR Norton Ghost 2003 that came bundled with some motherboards.

[MOVIEGEEK]

I don't usually agree with ROF but I am on WGA,it was the pirates that caused MS to do this.It's no different from getting a valid license key for other software and if you don't get one after the trial period the software won't work.There was a press statement from MS that they DO NOT plan on using WGA to turn off pirated software.I think Ulead DVD WS is overpriced but I'm not going to use a pirate copy,if you don't like WGA then don't use Windows.
As for reducing the retail price:I think they should reduce the price on retail legacy OS's but I search online and usually can find OEM for alot less.

[TwistedLincoln]

It would be a violation of their licensing agreement with me if they disallowed reactivation. I am quite sure several class action lawsuits would follow if Microsoft did this.

Just a few posts ago, you wrote:

They own the software. You agreed to allow them to terminate their licensing agreement with you at anytime or for any reason.

So either you believe they have the right to terminate the agreement at any time, or you don't. You cant' argue that giving them the power to shut you down is acceptable, and base that opinion on the fact that you don't believe they can legally do it according to the license. Sadly, reality is that they can legally shut down the activation servers any time they like.

This would further cause a ripple effect throughout Microsofts entire OEM business. I am quite sure that Microsoft will not be shutting down their activation servers anytime in the near future, but if they decide to in 10 years from now I doubt many people would notice.

In any case, 10 years from now try to find drivers for your hardware that is compatible with either OS.

Microsoft may not cut you off but your hardware makers will for certain.

That's exactly my point. I still encounter people every day that are happy to continue using Windows 98. And when they get a virus, they use their genuine Microsoft CD to reinstall, and have no problems. Ten years from now, one aught to be able to do the same with their legally purchased copy of XP. Just because you can't get new hardware or drivers for a machine doesn't mean it automatically stops being useful after a certain period of time.

As far as I'm concerned, becasue I purchased a legal copy of Windows 2000, I should be able to continue to run it on my current (or any future replacement) machines for the rest of my natural life. Sure, there will come a time where it won't work on future replacement machines, due to lack of driver support. But as long as my current machine continues to function, I will never have to worry about having to buy a new OS simply because Microsoft things I should. Just because only a few people will likely want to reinstall Windows XP ten years from now doesn't mean those few should be forced to give up a product they paid for.

Product Activation is the issue here. WGA is simply a tool that is used to turn a one-time activation into a periodic license validiation, just like TmpegEnc Plus uses. Once you are forced to occationally provide proof that you have a valid license, subscription-based licensing is only one step away...

[JohnnyMalaria]

[quote="TwistedLincoln"]

Product Activation is the issue here. WGA is simply a tool that is used to turn a one-time activation into a periodic license validiation, just like TmpegEnc Plus uses. Once you are forced to occationally provide proof that you have a valid license, subscription-based licensing is only one step away...

If you don't like their intellectual property protection, don't use their software. Stop bitching and moaning - your website's "editorials" are the ramblings of someone who just wants something for nothing. You want open source - go Mac. The Mac OS is nothing but an agglomeration of existing open source technology that somehow Apple then SELL. If you don't believe me, research the history of the Mac OS.

In ten years time, if XP is completely obsolete, someone (even MS) will probably provide a patch to remove the activation entirely.

MS make most of their money from corporate customers - Subscription-based Licensing for a Fortune 500 company - hardly. Your analogy (on your website) of a pair of pants that you subscribe to is just stupid. People "subscribe" to things everyday - got a mortgage? Do you think the lender will just say "**** it, I don't care what the contract says, we're taking your house". Credit cards? Telephone service? Internet service? Got a Driver's License? Got locks on your doors - if so, don't you trust anyone? If you don't get the relevance of these, you don't get your own argument.

Again - if you don't like the licensing model, don't say "I Agree" to the terms and don't use the product.

As far as I'm concerned, becasue I purchased a legal copy of Windows 2000, I should be able to continue to run it on my current (or any future replacement) machines for the rest of my natural life.

You didn't purchase a legal copy of Windows 2000, you purchased a license which came with a copy of the software. There's a world of difference.

19. The Product is protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws and treaties. Microsoft or its suppliers own the title,
copyright, and other intellectual property rights in the Product. The Product is licensed, not sold.

[TwistedLincoln]

If you don't like their intellectual property protection, don't use their software. Stop bitching and moaning - your website's "editorials" are the ramblings of someone who just wants something for nothing. You want open source - go Mac. The Mac OS is nothing but an agglomeration of existing open source technology that somehow Apple then SELL. If you don't believe me, research the history of the Mac OS.

In ten years time, if XP is completely obsolete, someone (even MS) will probably provide a patch to remove the activation entirely.

MS make most of their money from corporate customers - Subscription-based Licensing for a Fortune 500 company - hardly. Your analogy (on your website) of a pair of pants that you subscribe to is just stupid. People "subscribe" to things everyday - got a mortgage? Do you think the lender will just say "**** it, I don't care what the contract says, we're taking your house". Credit cards? Telephone service? Internet service? Got a Driver's License? Got locks on your doors - if so, don't you trust anyone? If you don't get the relevance of these, you don't get your own argument.

Again - if you don't like the licensing model, don't say "I Agree" to the terms and don't use the product.

You didn't purchase a legal copy of Windows 2000, you purchased a license which came with a copy of the software. There's a world of difference.

Thanks for taking the time to read my editorials...but I must disagree.

I don't want something for nothing. I believe in supporting the developement of new software by paying for what I use. I use Windows 2000, so I went out and purchased it four years ago, rather than getting a bootleg copy of Windows XP like so many others do.

A mortgage is hardly a subscription -- sure there is monthly payments, but in the end, you own the house. You are just repaying the debt that you incurred with that purchase. Renting an apartment, on the other hand, is a subscription -- you're paying for the limited right to use the apartment for a set amount of time. And there are loads of people (including myself) that would advise anyone against renting an apartment, for a number of reasons.

The point I was trying to make with my silly "subscription-based pants" analogy is that people have begun to completely disregard how important ownership rights are. Sure, you don't really own a copy of Windows (I chose my words poorly above, perhaps), you just own the license. I'm not suggesting you should be able to make 11,000 copies of Windows and sell them, since you "own" the original. What I'm saying is that since you did purchase a license to use the product, that license should be valid forever, not just as long as Microsoft would like you to have it. If it was truely intended to be a subscribed product, than so be it -- but when I bought my copy of Windows, no where did it say that the license was only good for a certain period of time. Sure, it says that Microsoft can revoke the license if they find me to be in breach of it, but as long as I'm following the rules, I should be able to use the product forever.

Subscription-based licensing has its place. I would never purchase such a product, but I can understand how some might find it useful, provided the vendor actually provides updates, patches, etc that that consumer needs. However, no software product should be sold under the guise of a regular license, and then be transformed into some kind of subsciption later on. You're assuming that Microsoft will later release a patch that will disable activation once XP is retired. But what if they don't? Technically, anone else who creates such a patch without authorization from Microsoft is violating the license agreement. So even if such a patch were to exist, Microsoft could easily go after websites that hosted it, or people who use it.

"Credit cards? Telephone service? Internet service? Got a Driver's License? Got locks on your doors - if so, don't you trust anyone? If you don't get the relevance of these, you don't get your own argument."

I enjoy a good debate, so I'll address each one of these quickly:

Credit cards: I pay mine off at the end of the month. I don't pay interest.

Telephone Service: I get to keep my phone after I cancel my service. The only thing I'm paying a subsciption for is the actual phone service-- and I knew that going in -- I didn't buy a $200 phone at radio shack, used it for two years, and then one day received a bill in the mail...

Driver's License: As you read my article, you recall my argument regarding the government and taxes being a form of subscription-based licensing... Clearly this is a different situation than with software...

Locks on my doors: Sure, I have locks. No, I don't trust people not to break in. But then again, I got the keys to the house when I purchased it. What you are implying is much the same as a realtor selling me a house, but keeping the keys, and making me call him up each time I want to enter my house.

I understand that software companies are hurt by piracy. But there's no reason to hurt legitimate customers as a reaction. I have said many times, and will say it again: I believe Microsoft makes an excellent product. I would be glad to purchase future versions of Windows, provided they don't use Product Activation, or other technology that prevents me from using them without asking for permission first. But as long as they use such measures, I will in fact take your advise: I won't use their software.

[JohnnyMalaria]

Thanks for taking the time to read my editorials...but I must disagree.

What I'm saying is that since you did purchase a license to use the product, that license should be valid forever, not just as long as Microsoft would like you to have it. If it was truely intended to be a subscribed product, than so be it -- but when I bought my copy of Windows, no where did it say that the license was only good for a certain period of time. Sure, it says that Microsoft can revoke the license if they find me to be in breach of it, but as long as I'm following the rules, I should be able to use the product forever.

And why do you think you won't be able to - bearing in mind the legal issues that would arise if Microsoft did what you believe they will do in the future?

[TwistedLincoln]

And why do you think you won't be able to - bearing in mind the legal issues that would arise if Microsoft did what you believe they will do in the future?

Well even if I'm wrong, and Microsoft has no ill intentions, it is simply not realistic to assume that they will keep the activation servers up forever. Once they pull them down, you can't reinstall. It's that simple. I would be very impressed if they released a patch at that point that would remove the need for activation. But I can't expect them to, especially since they've never said they would.

Not all companies respect their customers. While I would never knowingly buy a product that uses activation, I can at least respect companies that deal with it in a proper manner. Adobe, for example has a statement on their public website that addresses what will happen when a product is discontinued:

"Adobe is fully committed to honoring the terms of its product license agreements. In the event that a product is discontinued, Adobe will enable automatic approval of all activation requests for that product or provide a means to remove activation outright. In either case, the customer will not experience any change in software capabilities."

While I still do not condone Adobe's use of activation, I can certainly respect their decision to be upfront and honest with their customers, along with giving potential buyers an assurance that they will not be abandoned after a product is retired. (For the entire Abobe FAQ page, goto: http://www.adobe.com/products/activation/)

Microsoft has issued no such guarantee in regard to Windows. While I admit that I sometimes attach too much malice to what is simply a smart business move (subscription-based licensing), I don't think it is much of a stretch to say that Windows XP will fail to activate once it has been retired. No one expect Microsoft to continue releasing security patches for Windows 95, so why should anyone think they would incur the costs necessary to keep activation servers running for ten more years? And considering that Microsoft already has about 98% of the marketshare on desktop computers, the only way they can expand their business is to crack down on piracy, and by getting their users to upgrade. Regardless of if it is a forced upgrade where Windows just ceases to function, or they just let the activation servers die, sooner or later people with Windows XP will have to upgrade. That situation is certainly in their best interest.

JohnnyMalaria, and ROF, it has been a pleasure having this debate. I would continue, but I fear that this thread has gotten too long as it is. I invite both of you to visit the forum on my website. I welcome all comments on the issues of DRM, even those I disagree with.

[autodidact]

Hopefully Microsoft will adhere to the answer stated in this FAQ.
http://www.microsoft.com/piracy/activation_faq.mspx

Will Microsoft use activation to force me to upgrade? In other words, will Microsoft ever stop giving out activation codes for any of the products that require activation?

No, Microsoft will not use activation as a tool to force people to upgrade. Activation is merely an anti-piracy tool, nothing else.

Microsoft will also support the activation of Windows XP throughout its life and will likely provide an update that turns activation off at the end of the product's lifecycle so users would no longer be required to activate the product.

[TwistedLincoln]

Hopefully Microsoft will adhere to the answer stated in this FAQ.
http://www.microsoft.com/piracy/activation_faq.mspx

Will Microsoft use activation to force me to upgrade? In other words, will Microsoft ever stop giving out activation codes for any of the products that require activation?

No, Microsoft will not use activation as a tool to force people to upgrade. Activation is merely an anti-piracy tool, nothing else.

Microsoft will also support the activation of Windows XP throughout its life and will likely provide an update that turns activation off at the end of the product's lifecycle so users would no longer be required to activate the product.

Nice find! I am impressed that Microsoft has stepped up and made this statement. Here's hoping they live by their word.

[rkr1958]

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-3513_22-6110105.html

Microsoft plans to offer a longer lifeline to customers that use the company's older products.

The software maker on Monday announced changes to its paid custom support program that will allow users to get that type of support longer. Customers will pay only for each machine that is using the older software, rather than paying a hefty flat fee.

"This provides customers with a greater degree of choice and ability to plan for their migrations," said Ines Vargas, director of support policy at Microsoft.

Microsoft has already changed its support policies to offer five years of mainstream support and an additional five years of more limited, paid support, known as "extended support," on its business and developer products.

Custom support is what kicks in after that. The company has offered custom support in the past, such as for Windows NT 4. The company initially pledged only one year of support but later extended that to two years.

"We will no longer announce support for one year at a time," Vargas said. "Our customers kept telling us that sort of extension every year really is not working from a predictability and planning perspective."

Under the new program, Microsoft will add at least a third year of paid support for NT 4, though Vargas said only a handful of customers are expected to choose that option. The company is also in its second year of custom support for Exchange 5.5, while Windows XP Service Pack 1 will enter custom support in October. Windows XP is still in the mainstream support phase, but customers are required to move to the latest service pack of a product within two years.

Going forward, Microsoft will offer three years of custom support and will announce pricing for the program at the outset of those three years. Custom support also may not be limited to just three years.

Although it will now be more broadly available from Microsoft, custom support is still a pricey option. Businesses must already be paying for Microsoft's top-level "premier support" for a product and also pay custom support fees that often are more than the cost of licensing the new product. In addition, customers have to put in place a migration plan showing how and when they are moving to a newer product.

Such support generally is chosen by companies that have a particular application that requires the older version. Microsoft will now offer custom support as long as there is demand for it, but Vargas said such programs will not be indefinite.

"As the price escalates, there comes a point in time where it just does not make sense for anybody," Vargas said.

[ahhaa]

Just curious, but does the advent of dual core change anybodies mind about upgrading their OS? Speed & stability are essentials for video work, but that makes it in a way more like the truck driver looking for miles than the NASCAR under the hood types. (I've spent far too much time on the computer itself lately!:])

[jagabo]

Dual core is simply two processors on one chip. Windows has supported multiprocessing and multithreading since Windows NT. That's not to say they couldn't make further refinements in Vista but don't expect big advances -- regardless of what the marketing department has to say.

[ahhaa]

jag- Just wonderin' how buggy Vista will be when it comes to older software that I actually now have workin' just right!