Blu-ray & HD-DVD already failed formats?

[Zen of Encoding]

Interesting opinion..... If we qualify as "Enthusiasts", they've certainly got
the average videohelp.com user pegged in item #8:

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php

[zoobie]

I'm sure the rich couldn't care less

[lordsmurf]

By far one of the most intelligent views into HD discs I've seen to date.
A realistic approach.

[MOVIEGEEK]

"The hype machine is entirely enthusiast-created and since that day I realized Steve Jobs could sell a fart provided he sued a public Mac forum for talking about it before its release, I began to understand the power of public mania."

Sad but true.

I've been saying the same thing as this article on the forums I visit,HD-DVD/BD will be a niche market right next to SACD/DVD-AUDIO.

[StoryDonut]

"And the difference between SD TV and HDTV is more amazing than the difference between 480p DVDs and 1080i downrezzed high definition discs. "

He's got this right. I just bought my first HDTV and the detail on DVDs floors me. I can't imagine needing a picture that has a higher resolution.

[SingSing]

Nice saw !

[Cunhambebe]

I can be mistaken, but I would add to the list MPEG4 part 2 (Divx and Xvid), already suported by most of the new DVD Players (not to mention MP4 that has been a good surprise), giving new life to the old 4,7 GB DVD.

[rumplestiltskin]

#
VCRs took from 1976 (introduction) until the 80s and 90s to become widespread in consumer market. Even though there was initially a "format war" there was nothing like it at the time for consumers. Even so, it took over 10 years to hit truly mass market levels. VHS had (eventually) COMPLETE industry support.
<snip>
DVD took over VHS in 2003 - it was introduced in ~1997. By 1998 over 1 million players had been sold in the US. By 1999 player prices dropped below $300. There was no real format war (to speak of) and the DVD had COMPLETE industry support.

Not mentioned in that article (and it is the wild card in this very messy deal) are the reasons why VHS became the dominant format (over Beta) and why the DVD became as popular as it did in so short a time (when compared to the availability of VHS): Porn.

The first porno movie that made it to tape was over one hour in length. As Beta was limited (at that time) to 60 minutes, the distributor opted instead for VHS. Behind the Green Door, and the porno videos that followed, drove a stake through the heart of Beta.

When the porno distributors saw the potential of DVD, they moved much more quickly. This is why the cost of DVD players dropped so quickly; the content was there waiting for it.

And that's the crux of the referenced article: Content is king. The studios are run by the bottom-feeders and they are only interested in the profits they can make today (at the expense of their future).

Frankly, I couldn't care less about BluRay and HD-DVD. A plain old DVD player connected to my analog TV provides superb quality (and, yes, I know about HDTV and concur that it's even "better", whatever then means to you). But the means of distribution and acquisition of content has altered the landscape to such a dramatic degree that I probably won't even replace my DVD players when they die. I embrace H264 via downloadable channels. My iPod (yes, even just those measly little 76,800 pixels) connected to my TV provide me with acceptable content. And when Apple releases a model with H264 capability at higher resolutions (for those who've already bought into the HDTV thing), you can drive the nails into the coffins of BluRay and HD-DVD. Good riddance, sayonara, hasta la vista, baby!

[terjeber]

Interesting opinion..... If we qualify as "Enthusiasts", they've certainly got
the average videohelp.com user pegged in item #8:

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php

I love articles that predict failures. Take a look at this one from 1996: http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html

[ROF]

The article is so biased in it's bashing that it is almost sitcom laughable.

1. Nobody likes false starts? Can anyone name a technology that hasn't?

2. Format Wars Don’t Sell Players? Huh? Guess no one ever heard of a VHS player.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology? Really? There is an optical disc available today that approaches 50GB in capacity? Funny stuff.

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated? That is really reaching for straws in that statement. Hasn't this been going on in every sector of business since the day someone invented the idea of trade?

5. Playstation3 Cannot Save the World? Neither can humanity so what's the point?

6. Those Who Ignore History? AH! The SACD arguement. Nobody, including the studios, agree that it was going to be the next great thing. Most have never even heard of SACD.

7. People Want Technology that’s 15 Minutes Ahead of Its Time. No HD Content on TV? We must be ahead of the time here because there are already dozens of stations available in HD here.

8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)? Really? I still see people buying $1000 standard definition sets. Looks like some people are getting even more dumb.

9. A Skeptical News Media Doesn’t Help? If I trusted even a small amount of what the news media says I would probably still be using dixie cups and string for phone conversations. Anytime something is presented to you as news you need to take it with a grain of salt and realize that someone in the chain who brought you the news item has an agenda.

10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete? What's this? Competition? Say it isn't so. Did the person writing this article even realize that competition spurs more competition which brings about more compeition which brings down prices, which sells more products to more markets and OMG make the whole point of this one useless?

Funny stuff when viewed from an enthusiasts standpoint.

[dphirschler]

ROF, I'm laughing more at you than with you.


Darryl

[lenti_75]

ROF, I'm laughing more at you than with you.


Darryl

good point, he always has something strange to say....if not worse.


good reading, a very realistic fact.

[pchan]

Teething problem... may I say.

Once it's stablize... I will go for it....

[Steve Stepoway]

2. Format Wars Don’t Sell Players? Huh? Guess no one ever heard of a VHS player.

VHS didn't become the standard video tape technology because of the format war with Betamax (a superior technology, BTW), but in spite of it.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology? Really? There is an optical disc available today that approaches 50GB in capacity? Funny stuff.

Technically, yes, a quantum leap. But from the viewpoint of the end consumer? Not clear. They don't care about gigabytes. They care about how the movie looks on their TV. Do HD-DVD/Blu-Ray movies look better? Yes. Do they look enough better that consumers will spend $1000 for a player and $25-$30 a pop for movies to replace the ones they already own? Which, incidentally, may not completely suck when upscaled by their existing SD DVD player? With gasoline above $3/gal (yes, I know you Europeans laugh at Americans for complaining about $3 for gas, but how would you feel if your gas price doubled over the next year?). How are people going to react? Not clear. And if enough don't buy in early enough, it will be seen as a failure (think PSP movies), then no one will buy, and the price won't come down. Look how quickly new TV shows are deemed "failures" and axed each September. We've become a society unwilling to wait for anything.

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated? That is really reaching for straws in that statement.

Yes, the major studios are really cutting edge. That why they bring us Bewitched, more Charlie's Angels movies, another Superman movie, Rocky XXIV, more Adam Sandler, etc. Really edgy & cutting edge, that stuff. Studios are motivated by 1 thing, and 1 thing only: MAKING MONEY. And they absolutely don't want to take chances. Talk to anybody who's actually in the industry.

8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)? Really? I still see people buying $1000 standard definition sets. Looks like some people are getting even more dumb.

Some people, yes. But enough?

10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete? What's this? Competition? Say it isn't so. Did the person writing this article even realize that competition spurs more competition which brings about more compeition which brings down prices, which sells more products to more markets and OMG make the whole point of this one useless?

Competition also is Darwinian -- loosers die out. Try buying a Betamax VCR, for example.

Steve

[davideck]

Super VHS and Beta ED provided significant improvements in picture quality, but neither impacted the movie rental industry...

[handyguy]

At the time they mentioned it, Bluray was a great idea & HD's were more expensive. But since they took so long, HD's are now far easier & cheaper to use.

[KBeee]

Format wars?
You mean my 8 track stereo is outmoded?????

[ROF]

2. Format Wars Don’t Sell Players? Huh? Guess no one ever heard of a VHS player.

VHS didn't become the standard video tape technology because of the format war with Betamax (a superior technology, BTW), but in spite of it.

Which of course was my point. The format war determined a winner and players sold on both sides of the fence. One outsold the other but both made money on their ventures. Just one made more than the other and the Format War did not make any difference.

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology? Really? There is an optical disc available today that approaches 50GB in capacity? Funny stuff.

Technically, yes, a quantum leap. But from the viewpoint of the end consumer? Not clear. They don't care about gigabytes. They care about how the movie looks on their TV. Do HD-DVD/Blu-Ray movies look better? Yes. Do they look enough better that consumers will spend $1000 for a player and $25-$30 a pop for movies to replace the ones they already own? Which, incidentally, may not completely suck when upscaled by their existing SD DVD player? With gasoline above $3/gal (yes, I know you Europeans laugh at Americans for complaining about $3 for gas, but how would you feel if your gas price doubled over the next year?). How are people going to react? Not clear. And if enough don't buy in early enough, it will be seen as a failure (think PSP movies), then no one will buy, and the price won't come down. Look how quickly new TV shows are deemed "failures" and axed each September. We've become a society unwilling to wait for anything.

You are missing the point of the article. It was tied to the enthuasist. Most enthusiasts bought into DVD long before Blockbuster began renting the shiny discs. It is a storage medium not limited to just movie storage. I did not buy my first 3 DVD burners for movies. I bought them for storage capacity. Same goes for why I will be purchasing blu ray. Movie is just secondary when it comes to this storage medium.

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated? That is really reaching for straws in that statement.

Yes, the major studios are really cutting edge. That why they bring us Bewitched, more Charlie's Angels movies, another Superman movie, Rocky XXIV, more Adam Sandler, etc. Really edgy & cutting edge, that stuff. Studios are motivated by 1 thing, and 1 thing only: MAKING MONEY. And they absolutely don't want to take chances. Talk to anybody who's actually in the industry.

They don't want to take chances? Didn't you just name a bunch of movies that make chances and continually make a ton of cash? you make no sense.

8. Enthusiasts Are Getting Tired (and Smarter)? Really? I still see people buying $1000 standard definition sets. Looks like some people are getting even more dumb.

Some people, yes. But enough?

Yes. Walk into your local electronics store. Stand around for a few hours and watch how many standard definition screens leave the front door compared to HDTV. It's more than enough to see how dumb people will pay more for less.

F"]10. Broadband and IPTV to Compete? What's this? Competition? Say it isn't so. Did the person writing this article even realize that competition spurs more competition which brings about more compeition which brings down prices, which sells more products to more markets and OMG make the whole point of this one useless?

Competition also is Darwinian -- loosers die out. Try buying a Betamax VCR, for example.

[/quote] Exactly my point. You say this loser thing like it's a bad scenario.

[ROF]

ROF, I'm laughing more at you than with you.


Darryl

As always you can never add anything but derogatory commentary or falsehoods to any post. Most people laugh at you, but I just feel sorry for how small you are.

[jntaylor63]

Cunhambebe,

The WMVHD DVDs did show a way that you could get High Def content on a standard DVD-9 disk.

Granted you couldn't add dozens of surround tracks, lots of bonus features or extra long movies. (i.e. LOTR, Titanic, ect) But it would have been a hell of alot smoother to move to.

What I don't get is why Blu-Ray is using MPEG2 on their disks. I guess they don't wnat to pay fees to MS. Doesn't Sony own some rights to MPEG2 too?

[RLT69]

ROF wrote:

The article is so biased in it's bashing that it is almost sitcom laughable.

What's funnier is your line by line critique. I could give you the benefit of the doubt because I know there would be people that have an opposing view from the AudioHolics article but you failed to provide any substantial criticism. Instead you gloss over the author's points with obtuse remarks. Let's take the first point from the article:

"Nobody likes false starts
With the debut of HD DVD at an underwhelming 720p/1080i, coupled with a buggy interface and a transport that makes boiling water seem like a speedy event, the entrance of high definition DVD into the mainstream came out of the starting gate lame and hobbled. For Toshiba to release a player that didn’t support true HD at 1080p (even though the software does), and with no lossless audio format to accompany the video track, the high definition wave was more of a ripple. Add to this the delay of HDMI 1.3, lack of market penetration and supply, and a dearth amount of software titles and you have a very unimpressive product launch."

You wrote:

1. Nobody likes false starts? Can anyone name a technology that hasn't?

You failed to address his argument. That the HD DVD format does not support true HD 1080p! That's one hell of a show stopper right there. The consumer is being feed this marketing crap that HD is super wonderful fine so they should buy it but the product they end up with is not HD.

Then there are issues with the interface and the transport system, lack of support for HDMI 1.3, lack of supported audio formats. Oh and virtually no HD titles!

Those are very important issues which have not been dealt with that should have been. So some sucker is going to plunk down $1000 on junk. There's no reason not to suport 1080p and no reason for lack of lossless audio format. The manufacturers were too quick to get a buggy product out the door.

Let me take up another point you wrote:

3. HD DVD and Blu-ray are NOT Quantum Leaps in Technology? Really? There is an optical disc available today that approaches 50GB in capacity? Funny stuff.

Now this has less to do with movies and more to do with computer use. But 50GB is not a big deal. We are talking a world with 400GB HD and terabyte hard drives coming out soon! How many blue-ray discs is that?

The author was absolutely right, 50GB is not a quantum leap in technology. HD capacity is out pacing optical storage capacity. Even when DVDs were released they were inadequate for backup. Your best solution, has been and still is, tape backups. Hell HD storage is so cheap you can buy an external HD and backup your entire system!

The author raises some very important issues which you have not addressed in the slightest.

[rumplestiltskin]

50GB of storage? Does that mean I'll get not only the 2 hour movie but the comments of every individual involved in the production? Maybe even the "key grip" and "best boy"?

Maybe they'll add some games, right? I can see it now: Schindler's List - the FPS.

Okay, that's not going to fly, right? Hmmm, let's see. Wait! I have it! We know about the "Director's Cut" so why not the "Costume Designer's Cut"? No?

Frankly, there's nothing either BluRay or HD-DVD bring to the party except support for the Broadcast Flag.

And if I read anything about "software distribution", then the writer should be forced to install that bloatware on his computer.

The best thing we can do about BluRay and HD-DVD is tell everyone we know NOT to buy it and, when perusing the aisles at CircuitCity or BestBuy, tell anyone looking at that crapola to steer clear of it. If we don't actively oppose it, it -will- become part of the landscape.

[dphirschler]

As always you can never add anything but derogatory commentary or falsehoods to any post. Most people laugh at you, but I just feel sorry for how small you are.

"As always"? "Falsehoods"? Come on. That's unfair. I just happen to (strongly) disagree with you. It's interesting because I really do try to give you a fair chance every time... but some of the stuff you say is so far away from what I believe is right.


Darryl

[edDV]

My take, these two formats are two years late and will have difficulty gaining market share traction.

As a data recording format, both are overpriced and under sized. BD's 25/50/100GB isn't enough of a target to wait for price drops. With TB hard disks soon to be common, the data archiving market wants more than that. Others will win.

The MPeg4 solutions (H.264, VC-1, etc.) need encoding/decoding chips to mature. A newer cheaper better media disc format could be developed off current DVD recordable technology. Couple that to a broadband download model for HD content and you have a complete solution that bypasses current MPAA DVD distribution channels. It puts them out of the distribution business and back to content creation where they belong.

A downloadable NetFlix model + recordable disc could win the day and reshape the media distribution business much like Honda and Toyota reshaped the auto business.

[ROF]

As always you can never add anything but derogatory commentary or falsehoods to any post. Most people laugh at you, but I just feel sorry for how small you are.

"As always"? "Falsehoods"? Come on. That's unfair. I just happen to (strongly) disagree with you. It's interesting because I really do try to give you a fair chance every time... but some of the stuff you say is so far away from what I believe is right.

Care to define that a little as it relates to this topic? It has been my observation that you usually just offer what you did. A quick sniping comment with little value to anyone but your own ego.

[ntscuser]

Interesting opinion..... If we qualify as "Enthusiasts", they've certainly got
the average videohelp.com user pegged in item #8:

http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/10reasonsHDDVDsfailed.php

I love articles that predict failures. Take a look at this one from 1996: http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html

As a matter of fact I wrote and published a very similar article in 1998 which is why I'm not about to make any hard and fast predictions about HD

[Steve Stepoway]

4. Studios are Conservative, Greedy and Unmotivated? That is really reaching for straws in that statement.

Yes, the major studios are really cutting edge. That why they bring us Bewitched, more Charlie's Angels movies, another Superman movie, Rocky XXIV, more Adam Sandler, etc. Really edgy & cutting edge, that stuff. Studios are motivated by 1 thing, and 1 thing only: MAKING MONEY. And they absolutely don't want to take chances. Talk to anybody who's actually in the industry.

They don't want to take chances? Didn't you just name a bunch of movies that make chances and continually make a ton of cash? you make no sense.

So you consider those movies to be "taking chances"? Money makers, yes, but "original"? Come on!! Anybody who's really in the business knows that the one thing that scares major studio execs more than anything is originality & creativity. They are terrified of it because they don't know how to predict it! Why else would they continue to remake movies that were mediocre to start with, or try to turn so-so '70s sitcoms into movies? They are trying to minimize their risk. What they want is a "franchise". Something other than trivialities like "plot" and "character development" that will get people into the theaters, like a star's name. Take a look at the Oscar noms for best picture from last year. taking chances, character-driven, edgy, NOT from major studios. The majors wouldn't touch them. If you don't know that then you don't know the business.

Steve

[SingSing]

Father of DVD : Warren Lieberfarb. The former chief of Warner Home Video deserved a round of cheers for doggedly pursuing his vision of the new format. Lieberfarb, more than any other person, merits credit for making the DVD a reality. He didn't invent the technology. More important, he saw its potential to transform the industry. So he cajoled, strong-armed and bargained with industry players around the world to set aside their parochial interests and sign on to a universal standard for the new format. No small feat.

This was the part the doom sayer did not know about DVD.

Sony is most likely depending on Sony Studio to make BluRay happened.

[RLT69]

50GB of storage? Does that mean I'll get not only the 2 hour movie but the comments of every individual involved in the production? Maybe even the "key grip" and "best boy"?

The Key Grip always gives the best commentaries, very insightful. However, Best Boy commentaries tend to be rather pendantic and go on and on and on....

:P

[lordsmurf]

I love articles that predict failures. Take a look at this one from 1996: http://www.robertsdvd.com/failure.html

Maybe, but the article in your link is terrible. It fails to address quite a few topics, especially the reasons that DVD was needed and why VHS was an endangered format (quality, longevity). That article also has some false assumptions being used to base the opinions on. It also appears to be written prior to the technology actually having been tested. Not to mention several wrong facts in there. It's just a doomsday article, and is loosely uses money as the only reason DVD would fail as a format.

That does not compare to the thoroughness presented in the HD/BD article. Not even close.