HD DVD takes the lead over Blu-ray

[roma_turok]

HD DVD will have taken almost 70 per cent of the high-definition media market by the end of the year, leaving rival format Blu-ray Disc with a market share of just 30 per cent. So claimed market watcher ABI Research this week, though it warned the picture may change in 2007.

ABI paints the arena as a Sony vs Toshiba fight, noting that Sony's Blu-ray player is four months away while Toshiba's HD-A1 and HD-XA1 HD DVD players are shipping in the US now. Samsung's player is supposedly just two months away, so Toshiba's lead isn't as long as ABI suggests, but it's a good one nonetheless.

It also has the price advantage - Toshiba's machines are about half the price of the competing Blu-ray Disc players - and that's what will propel HD DVD to market domination this year, ABI reckons.

How long it retains the lead remains to be seen. The PlayStation 3, due in November, could well start reversing the two format's relative market positions. Possibly not in the immediate term - most early buyers will be focused on games - but certainly as 2007 rolls by.

But the early market lead is important for HD DVD. Content providers will look for one format to establish itself above the other, allowing them to move behind it. A few studios support both formats, but most favour one or the other. Those promoting Blu-ray will be tempted to shift allegiance - or at the very least support both formats - if HD DVD builds a clear lead early on


http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/04/20/hd_dvd_vs_blu_ray_market_stats/

[genki500]

Playstation3 wil be likely sold-out: 1-3 millon units. I can't imagine HD DVD can sell 2-9 million (by the assumption of 70% vs 30%) at price of $700 min/per unit for next 8 months. Who is ABI? And, they did not provide estimate unit sales number. Microsoft also said Blu-Ray will be next Beta (as to VHS) on the same day. Hmmm..., spinner hard at work???

[lordsmurf]

Oh please, spare me the useless speculation.

[ROF]

Which one has larger storage capacity? When you answer that you will know which one I will be using. Initial costs are subjective at best. Most consumers have a certain price barrier that must be broken in order for them to jump onboard. Neither of these formats are currently beneath most consumers price barrier.