Bill Gates against the Blu-ray Disc!

[sray2k]

I always say...

History repeats itself !!!

[AlecWest]

I always say...

History repeats itself !!!

... and people (and companies) who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. How true. I've learned ... and will just sit back and watch other people fight this format war.

[lordsmurf]

(except for MS Windows, where Bigbrother Bill created an illegal monopoly)

People have the choice of Linux, Mac, Sun, OS/2, etc. But they don't want it. It's a society-granted "monopoly" (really just a large market share). I like Windows. It works just fine, as long as I'm not stupid (virus, spyware).

Anyway, I don't think "who backs what" has anything to do with formats. HD-DVD will likely succeed. Just my instinct.

The only exception has to be Sony. Anything that company touches, pretty much turns to shit. It's like the anti-Midas touch. They have a small success with display tech and games, but that's about it. Everything else seems like a game/experiment to them, never a fully-backed product.

I also don't know why everybody always dredges up Betamax. It's an old VHS-like format that was not long enough, so it lost. The end. It wasn't higher quality by more than 10 lines of res (3% quality difference?). That case is so dissimilar in so many ways these days.

I do take interest in the comparison of BluRay/HDDVD to that of BetacamSP/S-VHS. That may be more correct. It'll be the format of those with high end equipment, the "peons" will stay on DVD regardless.

[AlecWest]

It'll be the format of those with high end equipment, the "peons" will stay on DVD regardless.

And with the current budget deficit, hits to the value of a dollar, and income erosion in the middle class, there are more and more "peons" created every day.

[mbellot]

It'll be the format of those with high end equipment, the "peons" will stay on DVD regardless.

And with the current budget deficit, hits to the value of a dollar, and income erosion in the middle class, there are more and more "peons" created every day.

Not to mention it will likely remain the format of choice for those who wish to exercise their "rights" to create backups that the kids can use while the original stays tucked safely away.

And lets not forget rentals. Its highly unlikely that Blockbuster or Netflix will be investing significant money in HD content before a "clear winner" has been decided.

As someone else in this thread said, its not about 2006 - these companies are positioning themselves for 2009/10.

The mass market doesn't really care so the format wars are wide open for staking mass market territory. Mr. Gates has proven to be a master at winning these wars.

Indeed. Much in the same way Don Corleone proved himself to be a master at winning "these wars".

[ukb007]

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will offer similar benefits with some not-too-major differences. Like the issue of data-holding size. That can be manipulated technically. Like the cost of the drives/media. These can be adjusted according to market reality. The fact that the two competing formats offer discs of similar physical sizes opens up the only possible avenue that consumer-demand will dictate. Multicapacity drives / players.

I'm not worried. Drives that'll use any disc you choose to insert either to read or write on will be the only answer to the impasse. That has already happened to the + and - formats in DVD writing market. It will happen to the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD formats too.

Thanks.

[edDV]

...

As someone else in this thread said, its not about 2006 - these companies are positioning themselves for 2009/10.

Yup that was me. MPeg2 will quickly disappear as a consumer HDTV format. "The people" always opt for "more for less". The long term war is for tighter compression. The field has narrowed to VC-1 and H.264 but another codec could emerge. DirecTV and Dish decided on a different form of MPeg4. Cable hasn't yet decided. Broadcasters are free to suppliment ATSC with "data" that could be anything including highly compressed video.

The mass market doesn't really care so the format wars are wide open for staking mass market territory. Mr. Gates has proven to be a master at winning these wars.

Indeed. Much in the same way Don Corleone proved himself to be a master at winning "these wars".

The real war is for the consumer formats. Gates understands this.

[painkiller]

Yes.

And the people shall decide.

Just like they did before.

[Captain315]

Call me a MS junkie or anything else you want. Just thank GOD that Steve Jobs and Apple didn't win out in the end. I don't hear any of you jumping on his case and he is the KING OF MONOPOLY. I was using computers LONG before Bill Gates came along and what he did for the computer was nothing short of turning it into a workable and viable alternative to pen and paper. So many of you harp about Bill Gates but the truth is, if it weren't for him, you'd be having to pay four times the price you now do for software (if you could find it) or you'd have to write your own for some lame duck operating system (Linux). I've done it all and I thank God for Bill Gates and Microsoft. I really get tired of people bashing him when they don't know what they're talking about. You don't have to like Microsoft but you damned sure had better be thankful for it. Without him and his company, you wouldn't have a computer. It would have never made it to the masses, or if it did, they'd never have been able to communicate with each other. I guess it's the "IN" thing for people to bash him and his company and be accepted as one of the self-proclaimed elite.

[pchan]

Just to share my experience on installing LINUX. The KDE UI is fantastic and plenty of free games... BUT... drivers is big problem. Scanners, printers, modem, soundcard, video etc... it's big hurdle to overcome. I gave up after a couple of months.

Why do we need HD TV when we have DVD format ? Does it really make much a difference on a 42in plasma TV. Just to draw parallel with the digital still camera. Consumers will not need more than 5M pixels. Can't tell different between a 5Mag or 8Mag digital picture. Or even a color printer where vendors are tauting pixel size...

[mbellot]

The real war is for the consumer formats. Gates understands this.

No, the real war is for consumer dollars.

The average Joe Blow shopping at Walmart doesn't give a rat's ass about formats. He's looking for he biggest bang for his buck. This is 90% of the market share and Bill will get them the same way he got the lion's share of the PC market - deceit, unfair market practices, foisting off alpha quality code as "production ready' and downright theft (anyone remember the Stacker/DriveSpace debacle?)

I am eagerly awaiting a couple of Video firsts:

1. The first (HD) DVD Player virus.
2. The first (HD) DVD Player that requires regular security patches to fix #1.

The remaining 10% will be a collection of philes (the same bozos who think they can hear the difference between monster cable and 16 awg zip cord) and the intensely anti-Microsoft.

It will be interesting to see how the format wars play out amongst the *nix users. If it weren't for someone creating DeCSS there still wouldn't be commercial DVD movies under Linux/etc. If HD or BR follow the same key system approach they will likely find themselves in the same boat all over again.

Can't tell different between a 5Mag or 8Mag digital picture. Or even a color printer where vendors are tauting pixel size...

Digital camera users benefit from larger images because it allows them more freedom in post processing (crop, etc).

If you are just printing raw 4x6 pictures from the camera then you are quite correct. In fact any decent 2.1MP camera is more than sufficient to do that job.

[edDV]

Just to share my experience on installing LINUX. The KDE UI is fantastic and plenty of free games... BUT... drivers is big problem. Scanners, printers, modem, soundcard, video etc... it's big hurdle to overcome. I gave up after a couple of months.

Why do we need HD TV when we have DVD format ? Does it really make much a difference on a 42in plasma TV. Just to draw parallel with the digital still camera. Consumers will not need more than 5M pixels. Can't tell different between a 5Mag or 8Mag digital picture. Or even a color printer where vendors are tauting pixel size...

You can answer your own question by viewing 480p vs 720p (1280x480) on a 42" LCD in a high end home theater store. Don't confuse anything you see at Best Buy with true HDTV.

I for one see a huge diffference and it just gets better at 50"and above. HD DVD will look even better than a typical ATSC broadcast.

[edDV]

The real war is for the consumer formats. Gates understands this.

No, the real war is for consumer dollars.

That was implied.

The average Joe Blow shopping at Walmart doesn't give a rat's ass about formats. He's looking for he biggest bang for his buck. This is 90% of the market share and Bill will get them the same way he got the lion's share of the PC market - deceit, unfair market practices, foisting off alpha quality code as "production ready' and downright theft (anyone remember the Stacker/DriveSpace debacle?)

I am eagerly awaiting a couple of Video firsts:

1. The first (HD) DVD Player virus.
2. The first (HD) DVD Player that requires regular security patches to fix #1.

Entirely probable. These HD home networks will be targeted. I wouldn't be surprised to see time bombs built into DRM where they self destruct if encryption is broken.

As for alpha code, just look at any home video networking product not to mention the HTPCs.

[dcsos]

I see this as MICROSOFT's attempt to steal some of the congratulatory thunder of HIDEF from the other participant -IN THIS CASE TOSHIBA
As Gates Himself poits out, MICROSOFT will be supporting BLU-RAY too
if people want it and then they will be going for the GOLDEN PHOTO-OP with
HOLLYWOOD PARTNER GALORE!
a lotta formats shall come and go--we shall see!
it may just come down to whose movies are cheaper retail a year or so frum now!

[Raen]

Blu-ray has more capacity, with 50 gigabytes, compared to 30 gigabytes for HD-DVD disks. But proponents of HD-DVD say their format is cheaper to make because the production method is similar to current DVDs.

Can anyone offer an educated guess on the possible differences in price with the two formats?

The cost to manufacture either format will likely be very close in actual cost to each other. However: HD-DvD has shown that because it uses similair structure of the current dvds that those who already manufactor dvds will be easily able to convert there machines to make HD-DVDs. Blu-rays technology significately differs from current dvds and those wishing to make blu-ray discs will have to invest in new equipment. Which adds a considerable startup cost to any company wanting to make these disks.

Normally when there's a huge startup cost, the price per unit is reflected by that. So the company can remake what its invested in and then you see the cost per unit reduced. But in the long run the startup cost(assuming the technology is successful) really is minimal. I'd actually bet that tho the startup costs for blu-ray discs will be alot higher than hd-dvd that the fear that the cost per unit will make the blue-ray technology fail will lead the major manufacturers to not try to recoop their lost in the short run but set a price that nets them a profit per disc that will be around the same cost as the HD-DvD's and rely on the long run to get their money back they invested in the equipment.

I'm a blue-ray supporter myself. 20 extra gigs is alot of high quality movies or extras that can be added to the disc. However I fear that because startup capital is needed for the blu-ray discs that many companies will feel is a needless risk to take. It would be a significate investment if HD-DvD wins the format wars. They wouldnt make back the money invested just to setup to make BD's. DVD makers may see that just converting to make HD-DVD's is a smarter business move. Less money to invest means a lesser risk.

The only good news for Blu-Ray is that the PS3 will use that format. Most analysis tend to think the PS3 will completely kill the Xbox360 in sales and that Sony will remain king of that market place. Video game sales are rivaling movie sales and PS3 might actually be what saves Blu-ray.

But to give a straight answer to your question. There is no hard numbers on how much either media will cost. It is my guess that blu-ray might actually be willing to take a loss in sales in order to stay in the running and will price close to what HD-DVD does. However it is possible that because of startup cost of Blu-ray discs that blank media may be as much as twice as much as HD-DvD(another guess) but any commercial release of movies would defiantely be marked the same price as HD-DvDs.

[Nilfennasion]

Sony will do whatever it takes to ensure the PS3 succeeds in the marketplace as the PS2 did. If that means they have to give away the units themselves then make it up by selling more games and accessories, so be it. Of course, they will also have to count on Microsoft doing the same and bungling it as they did with the original X-Box. Even with the release of the X-Box 360, I still haven't heard of a singular game that remotely sounds like something I would like to play. If Capcom decide to port Resident Evil 4 to the PS3, that's it as far as the X-Box 360 is concerned for me.

But the real test for HD-DVD will come from the studios' ability to produce a compelling feature that makes people want to upgrade. Sure, 1080I or 720P is nice to look at, but it isn't feasible on most existing equipment. There are still features on SD-DVD that are grossly underused, such as auto pan and scan or multiple angles. For HD-DVD to have a realistic chance of the same kind of embracement its SD cousin has enjoyed, content producers are going to have to include something that really knocks the viewer's socks off. The use of seamless branching and active video subtitling to create the video-audio commentary that was seen on The Goonies would be a good example. On films like that, seeing how the cast has aged (or in Josh Brolin's case, stayed much the same) is a major part of the appeal. Why not use it to deliver some of the more interactive entertainment that has been promised since VGA was considered big news?

[spiderman2k1]

Gates better buy some movie studios or Sony will still win.

[mats.hogberg]

Coincidentally(?), it's announced that blu-ray players will come with a Java 2 ME VM, to provide interactive content. So, once again, MS in one camp, Sun in the other.

/Mats

[dcsos]

Gates better buy some movie studios or Sony will still win.

YUP!

or Gates better invent a softPOD or some kinda music playing device you can play movies on like the iPod
or else APPLE & SONY will call the shots

[MOVIEGEEK]

OT:I think the iPod craze is over,I only know one person that owns one.In fact I read a recent article that said Apple slashed prices because of slumping sales.Sony has only made two wise business decisions:buying movie studios and producing PS consoles...the other products they have produced have been a day late and a dollar short.I do give Sony credit for the Beta VCR and Digital8 camcorder.

I agree with Raen about HD-DVD being more economical to produce(I posted an article a couple of months ago),Toshiba and Verbatim are ready for production...while Blu-ray is not.

[spiderman2k1]

The one thing with the PS3 is BLA-RAY Sony can take this but after seeing the PS3 controller I really think XBOX360 will win this console war.

[Xylob the Destroyer]

the controller is a proto-type ONLY.
what you are seeing on the internet for PS3 controller is NOT what you will get with the console
see the newest issue of O.P.M. for details -- this comes straight from Sony.
PS3 will NOT ship with the 'silver banana-rang'!
btw, that has got to be one of the most idiotic reasons for choosing one console over another (on the verge of fanboy rant).... if you don't like the controller there are always multiple 3rd party options.

[pongster]

Wow, great to see so many Mac and Linux users here.

[Wile_E]

What is the error correction methods used on these formats? What is the estimated longevity of each? Do they scratch as easily as DVD Recordables? These are questions I have before backing any new format.

[ukb007]

I can tell you about the SCRATCH part.

TDK, a world leader in digital recording media, has announced DURABIS, the name given to its exclusive coating technology that significantly increases the durability of its DVD and Blu-ray discs - making them scratch, dust and grime resistant and eliminating the need for Blu-ray discs to be encased in a protective cartridge.

Thanks.

[Cornucopia]

OT:I think the iPod craze is over,I only know one person that owns one.In fact I read a recent article that said Apple slashed prices because of slumping sales.Sony has only made two wise business decisions:buying movie studios and producing PS consoles...the other products they have produced have been a day late and a dollar short.I do give Sony credit for the Beta VCR and Digital8 camcorder.

I agree with Raen about HD-DVD being more economical to produce(I posted an article a couple of months ago),Toshiba and Verbatim are ready for production...while Blu-ray is not.

Only if you're talking about stamped/replicated discs.

Blu-Ray recorders and recordable discs (RW, I think) have been out since April '03 (http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/3845.cfm). You can also check http://www.blu-ray.com and see a variety of recorders and media available.

Since most of the Joe's on this board won't be replicating anyway, I don't see how this will hinder their adoption. If replicators won't "step up to the plate" as quickly as Sony would like (for prerecorded consumer movie and PSP discs), Sony will do just what it did for CD's--build it's own replication plant(s).

Scott

[dj4monie]

the controller is a proto-type ONLY.
what you are seeing on the internet for PS3 controller is NOT what you will get with the console
see the newest issue of O.P.M. for details -- this comes straight from Sony.
PS3 will NOT ship with the 'silver banana-rang'!
btw, that has got to be one of the most idiotic reasons for choosing one console over another (on the verge of fanboy rant).... if you don't like the controller there are always multiple 3rd party options.

I dunno, seem to me as good as reason as any to buy a console, after to play the game you have to LIKE THE CONTROLER>

Mister Peebody....

Back in '89, I my sister wanted a Sega Genesis, it came out a year earlier. Never liked the controller so I stuck with my NES, the SNES came out, people moaned about MK not having BLOOD, big deal I bought the game anyway. In the end - SNES won, Genesis lost.

Move up to 1995 -

I saw the writing on the wall, Nintendo and RARE had pushed the SNES as far as it could go and just couldn't keep up with the Sega Saturn. But I heard that Sony was going to make a console.

I knew then as I do now -

Sony is a MUCH BIGGER company than Nintendo or Sega or even 3DO, they are going to win this war going away. I traded in my SNES and NEVER LOOKED BACK...

So I bought a SNES because of its controllers, I bought a PSX because its controller was more like the Nintendos than the Saturns were.

Plain and Simple...

I bought a PS2 because Sony already proved their dominance once, why not again and after a rough start, what's Sega doing these days? Nintendo is next and I really don't think it matters what the Revolution does, alot of people in the business are already saying it will be most people's 2nd console if they are hard core gamers and meanwhile most people will just take one side - Sony or Microsoft...

I knew TWO people with BetaMax unit and VHS has always been better. Machines were cheaper, Tapes were cheaper, Rental stores had VHS and not Beta tapes to rent, for the average Joe its a no-brainer, who cared about quality when everybody had about a 27" tube tv with basic cable back in those days. People got cable because they were tired of messing with Rabbit Ears to get local stations, plus who else was showing FIRST run movies UNCUT and without commericals - CABLE

Only Direct TV has beaten that model with more channels, better signal and you OWN the equipment not "renting" it from Time Waner, Charter, etc, etc.

So I've been right in the middle of this so-called digital age and you kno what? When I can make an informed choice I will do so, Blu Ray, HD-DVD, who knows yet, its not even available and like somebody else said id DVD is hackable then why not stick with what works...

And as for MS - This is a Windows XP PC and I have no interest in learning another OS.

As I have always said, most of this stuff is not because its better, its people are trying to be different for the sake of being different and for no other reason than that...

Short List -

ATI vs nVida - ATI

Ford vs Chevy - Blue Oval

Honda vs Toyota - Toyota

Windows vs Mac - Windows

MP3 vs Windows Media - I use BOTH

[aktee]

i live in a poor neighborhood. Christ sake, they just bought their first DVD-Player, and now they'll have to get either Blu ray or HD-DVD. LOL!

As for me, not interested into converting 25gb movies - not with my 20 inch Trinitron, I'm sure DVD still do fine. And No, I won't buy a 61" Plasma TV.

I think disc technology is going way too fast. really. cause the way it's going, i'm about to use Blu Ray as my HD (LOL, 40 gb. 2 x blu ray and it's full)..

blah. it should be cool for Anime DVD tho

[ROF]

I hope DRM doesn't make it into either one of them

Digital Rights Management protects the content and the consumer. Take heart in knowing that DRM is only a speed bump in allowing information to flow freely.

I hope DRM ends up in both. If it doesn't or it's not a strong enough protection alot of bored hackers are going to get malicious.

I'd rather have them tied up in reverse engineering projects which benefit us, instead of using that time to write malicious code. In truth, that's the purpose of DRM or at least the only possible purpose it can serve. Nothing is ever protected, just temporarily unretrievable.

[Wilbert]

Digital Rights Management protects the content and the consumer. Take heart in knowing that DRM is only a speed bump in allowing information to flow freely.

Yeah right. It surely protects the content, you got that part right.