I hate statistics. Anybody can bend them to their will. Things like "HD capable" are tip-offs that the figures are BS marketing speak.
DL is no sweetheart (at least DVD+R one), but it at least has a 50-50 chance to work with existing hardware. HD/BL has a ZERO PERCENT chance to work. Not good.
People don't like change. How many people still boot up Windows 95-ME and NT-2000. Quite a lot. Collectively, probably as many as do XP. How many cars from the 80s-90s (or even earlier!) do you see on the streets? Easily a large majority.
The first few years, the early buyers are going to bear the burden for R&D costs. So go ahead, buy more for my sake, as it means I pay less when the "rush" finally hits in 5+ years. But realize you'll be a small majority, the "only kind on your block" kind of situation.
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Originally Posted by lordsmurf
At anyrate, I don't think either Blu or DL is going to be 50% of the burned market in the next 3 years unless there is some miracle break through in manufacturing the DL disks which greatly enhances the quality and decreases the price (I haven't looked very close, but it almost seems like the price of DL media has gone up in the last 6 months). If good DL media is still int he $4-5 price range and Blu stays on track for the 5 year timeframe you mention, my guess is Blu will fairly rapidly replace DL, unless DL has manged to become pretty much the norm for DVDs like DD was for floppies. Plus, don't think I'm arguing Blu will replace DVD anytime soon. My bet is that it will be Blu and SL-DVD co-existing for a long time much like VHS and DVD did.
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Hope that the price of the DL goes down a bit and it takes off in the market. I like the ability to keep the bit rate at the maximum for 2 plus hours on a movie.
I went into BestBuy and was looking at the Tv's a couple of weeks ago, and along comes the sales "boy". I ask him if I can have a side by side comparison of a analog signal to the Sony HDTV and the regular Sony. No dice, "we can't do that, all we have is a HDTV signal for display purposes". I ask " Can you play a DVD cabled to both for the A/B comparison. I can't do that he says. I said goodbye.
MAK
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Originally Posted by racerxnet
I have a few movies I am waiting/hoping to do with DL. You can bet I'll protect my original StarWars Laserdisks until DL or Blu become viable.
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The Video stores near my house in Seattle still rent about 20% VHS.
And this is in freaking Seattle a very tech city. Almost every MacDonalds, starbucks and other coffee shops have Wi-Fi.
I'd bet that in the southern USA there are areas that are still 50% VHS.
Does anybody have the figures on the Market share of HD compatible TV's. My guess is the HDTV is still under 20%.
Why buy Blu/HD when you don't have a TV that can show the difference.
I think dash/minus DL at $3 would catch on. Dash/minus is more compatible and it looks like -DL will be no exception. They aren't jumping the gun like the "plus" (what a marketing joke plus LOL) alliance did.
I think the switch to HDTV might take as long as the switch to COLOR TV did. Like everybody else keeps saying John Q. Public doesn't even understand what HD is.
They already think they have HD TV because when ER and the Tonight Show come it says at the bottom that it is broadcast in High Definition.
John Q. Public only wants the Biggest TV possible can't even see HD.
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The figures from the end of 2003 were 13.8% of households had an HDTV capable. They were using sales data and not consumer surveys so they were fairly confident they were capturing true HDTV and not just plasma/lcd/EDTV. Numbers I've seen if you exclude the portable class for current sales are in the just shy of 40% range. My neighborhood is slightly upper middle class and like I mentioned >50% here and I'm not in a high tech, signal rich area. So yeah I think you can argue that within a year more than half of houses will have access to a true HDTV. The new generation of DLP projection TVs seem to be real winners in finally making converts. Checking out some of the good Sony and Panasonics I can see why.
Here the local Blockbuster is just hitting the 50% mark for DVDs. But I'd say new hit releases probably reflect the 80:20 you see in Seattle. Second tier movies tend to be 50:50 and older movies are almost 100% VHS. They aren't going back and replacing any existing stock with DVD.
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Originally Posted by bazooka
Originally Posted by lordsmurf
On the contrary it's the people that complain on the compatibilty that have no credability. Either because they have not tested DL at all, because they don't know how to make a compatible DL disc or are just general plus format bashers (some fit all three).
Sure, DL burning is not as cheap and uncomplicated as SL burning so Joe Sixpack can't start making "backup" copies of movies in bulk just yet...
Originally Posted by doppletwo
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I refuse to believe that HDTV is even APPROACHING that level of market penetration. My father-in-law just bought a nice Sony WEGA, and it's "HDTV ready", which means that it can't decipher an HDTV signal without an add-on. The one that COULD decipher an HDTV signal was hundreds more and since he doesn't even have cable there yet he decided to pass.
I'm willing to bet that 99% of consumers don't have HDTV sets. Maybe they have HDTV-ready sets, with varying levels of actual HDTV capability. Maybe.
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Refuse to believe that people own an HDTV or that they watch a HDTV signal? I'd argue that it's very believeable based on what I see in a small technically un-savy area I live, in fact I'd guess that it's probably as under-representative as the the year old date suggests.
Now are some of them like your Father-in-law or my friend that bought a HD capable TV with no way to get a signal? Obviously, but since it means more money for them, my guess is most sales types are pretty good about pressing folks to buy the HDTV tuner as well. Plus when they call DirectTV or their cable company or their neigbors and ask them why does my picture suck, it will only take about two questions before they are trying to sell them digital cable or an HD satellite box, then they'll have the tuner or at least understand there's more than just the display involved. Plus, your Father-in-law argument still means that if he could and did go out and buy a HD-DVD and found some HD disks somewhere he certainly COULD watch them on his new Sony in HD.
The problem isn't the lack of hardware these days. Yeah, it's still expensive but it's coming down fast and people are certainly buying it. Even if it's just like your father-in-law that bought "a nice new Sony" that just happened to be HD capable. It's very much the lack of HD content and uderstanding that are holding things back. Well, that and the fact that many folks will happily watch whatever and never notice there's a difference.
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I just think it's funny.
People who want to buy a TV have a couple hundred bucks to spend.
There's no such thing as an HDTV for a couple hundred.
Heck, there's no such thing as an HDTV for $500!
If you told me they had a high percentage of TV's over $1000, I'd believe you. But the "TV's that Joe Sixpack can buy"? Nearly ZERO percent penetration.
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Originally Posted by -jsl-
You have no clue what you are talking about.
Pcworld and Pcmagazine are credible sources and they know how to make dvd's. They get paid to review equipment, so that blows your theory all to pieces. Other credible sources have said compatibility is shoddy.
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Originally Posted by lordsmurf
I cannot vote for every DVD player in the world, but during my last trip to BestBuy with a Verbatim DVD+R DL burned on Sony DRU-710A with DVD-ROM bitsetting using RecordNow 7.2 in Data mode, every single DVD player recognized, played, successfully switched layers and continued onto the second layer on that disc. There was only one Sony DVP-NS575 that was not playing well the second layer. I've tested at least 20 to 25 different players that day in the store, including regular players, recorders, DVD/VHS combos and DVD/TV combos. As you can see the diversity is great and so was the compatibility.
So, my point is: If you've never tried, or failed to successfully burn a DL for any reason, including a prejudice against +RW camp, lack of good software, lack of basic DVD specifications knowledge, etc. - then please don't post your opinions because you will simply scare a lot of people from even trying DL format, and therefore decreasing the sales which will translate into DL prices not falling down as fast as they should.
Lordsmirf and other DVD+R DL pessimists, I honestly don't care about your unverified statements against DL. However, I have to simply put at least some truth back into this subject by saying this to those people who want the unbiased opinion:
DVD+R DL (for now only Verbatim MKM) works on a vast majority of modern DVD players (above 90% compatibility with DVD-ROM booktype). Even a couple of my nearly 5 year old Pioneer DVD players play them perfectly. I've been burning and testing DL since June and once I abandoned Nero and moved to RecordNow 7.2 for burning, every DL disc I've done played on almost every player I've tried. That's including a few samples of my work that I gave away to a few people and they all reported a successful playback.
So, for those few open-minded people that are left in this thread, if you want to achieve my rate of DL compatibility, please read in its entirety this thread (and don't listen to pessimists who have no experience in DL burning):
https://www.videohelp.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=225001
As you will see, it was a rocky start for DL, mostly software-wise, but in the end the majority of problems went away with the right combination of things and positive attitude. The only negative thing about DVD+R DL is the price. But that will drop eventually.
Cheers!
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Originally Posted by Edmund Blackadder
There is no reason for your 'tude so I suggest you take it down a couple of notches. Best Buy does not account for all the players in the world and hardly qualifies you as an expert.
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Originally Posted by bazooka
I think the only exception is John Dvorak in pcmag, whose editorials are often well balanced, and not jumping to conclusions without at least investigating all options on given subject.
I.e. last summer (2004!) one of the main editorial writers, either Ulanoff or Miller, both "respectable" (LOL!) editors, wrote a piece about how *difficult* it is to make a home DVD! Few weeks before that one of them wrote about enormous problems with backing up commercial DVDs... Im too lazy to dig in in the garbage repository (pcmag.com) but Im sure both essays/reports are still there.
These dudes obviously never check any guides here on videohelp or haven't heard of google... Im still shaking my head in disbelief such idiocy can exist in *any* of the computer-related magazines. I cant understand how anyone could call pcmag or pcworld "credible source of information" LOL!
If you'd listen to pcworld you'd think PCs (in the shape *we all still use them*) have died already few years ago, and we should use Tablet PCs...
Post of the year award for bazooka!!!
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Originally Posted by DereX888
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Bazooka, here is the piece about inability to make DVDs, by Bill Machrone (another idiot at pcmag):
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1666183,00.asp
I don't "shoot" at any magazine. I read i.e. Dvorak's columns at pcmag, all Im saying is that you shouldnt trust neither magazine at all. As you've said - they are *paid* for making opinions, and obviously it affects their judgement and objectiveness of their editorials more than it should.
Think whatever you want, I dont care. At least *I* stand by my opinions, while most of your 'respectable' magazine editors don't, they just say whatever theyre paid to say.
(Go to any shows, like CES etc, see your 'honest PC writers' with MAC laptops LOLThats a pity view, isnt it?
)
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Edmund Blackadder:
What the hell, I got a BenQ 1620 on the way (it has RecordNow 7.2 bundled BTW). I think I'll have a crack at (DVD-ROM bitset) DL just for funsies.But yeah, the price will have to come down to, oh, $2 or so for me to seriously consider becoming a convert. Not holding my breath. Doing SL with DVDRebuilder ain't so bad, after all.
As an aside, I can sympathise with Nero problems. When I installed it, I found out it didn't play nice with others. Had to uninstall RecordNow (an earlier version); also TDA, Ulead DVDMF and VCDEasy would no longer burn, DVDDecrypter wouldn't until it was updated. On the other hand Nero itself has worked pretty well. Maybe time to remove it, it's not anywhere near as bloated as the Pinnacle stuff, but a little flabby...Okay Nero fans, JMHO.Pull! Bang! Darn!
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Originally Posted by DereX888
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Originally Posted by bazooka
Originally Posted by bazooka
Good day.
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Originally Posted by Edmund Blackadder
You come off being a know it all which you are not. There are more players than just the ones in Best Buy. So for you to say you have a 90% compatibility rate is erroneous.
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Originally Posted by bazooka
I replied to you only about reliability of the sources you said you base your opinions on, thats all. I repeat again - because they are being *paid* fr making their reviews, they are not objective and not reliable at all.
My work gives me great opportunity to buy and play with almost any new gadgets, at the taxpayers expenese, and because Im *NOT* being paid to state my opinions on any given subject or product, therefore my opinion is more valuable than any of your reviewers at any given magazine
Of course I can be wrong on some subjects, but so can be any of your 'respectable' paid reviewers, thus your claim about me not publishing any of "my reviews" is utterly bullshit...
Originally Posted by Edmund Blackadder
Attitude aside, you've already set a goal for yourself ("to prove smurf is wrong") hence there is no point to discuss anything with you, dont you see it?
And dont get fooled by post counts. Some people are here mostly for the offtopic threads.
Lordsmurf has given lots of good advices to others and there is no need for you to accuse him of "being wrong". Even if he is wrong on some subjects, its normal. No one is perfect and no one "knows it all".
And I want you to know, that Im not any of Lordsmurf's friends, I had my arguments and disagreements with him on few occasions here. He even gave me "yellow cards" (as you can see below my nick) any time he could... so as you see - Im not his friend, but believe me - I will value his opinion over yours at any time, because I know I can trust his objectiveness, while you seem like you just want some attention, thats all
If post count is so important to you, and if it will make you feel more "respectable", I see no reason why dont you post lots of offtopic subjects/threads and get your post count up
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Again....
No. I think one person's information (ANY one person) is narrow and tested on far too small a scale to be of any significant value, like most other single-person reviews. Statements like "above 90%" compatilibty is preposterous, as not even SL +R media enjoys that number. It is overly optimistic and only sets people up for disappointment. This is why I work with a group, and constantly contact others that use high quantities of media.
Magazines...
No. Most "techie" writers have proven themselves limp in the age of digital photo and video. Like I said earlier in this thread, they have interesting results, but the situation often leaves many questions. However, SOME PART of the findings has a level of truth to it that cannot be summarily dismissed with so many reproducing similar results.
It's sad that members have to turn discussions into flame wars, as well as make it a staging ground for personal attacks.
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