Dual-Layer Media May Disappear Soon

[MOVIEGEEK]

"Dual-Layered (DL) DVD writers may be affordable, but the question of concern is the media prices. The price per DL media averages out to $10.00, which is shockingly high. We talked to manufacturers at this year’s CES about prices and what they thought about DL media in general. The replies we received were far from positive and disappointing. According to a few blank media providers, DL standard may not have a bright future ahead of it. The reason is the upcoming Blu-Ray and HD DVD standards that are supported by world’s top most corporations......"


http://cooltechzone.com/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=918&itemid=0

[spiderman2k1]

May be if DVD-R DL comes it thing may change little to help out DL. But with Blueray and HD-DVD coming out they better so it soon.

[Gurm]

I hate to say "I told you so".

[djelimon]

this is why I wasn't buying a burner...

[Greg12]

Damn, I like DL with my DIVX player

[bazooka]

I could really care less.

I bought my burner for faster burn times and I am ok with single layer discs.

[lordsmurf]

It's probably a safe guess that this is mainly about DVD+R DL media, so I'm not AT ALL surprised. That media to date has been very lackluster.

Then again, the article has several GLARING ERRORS, even the "correction" is BS, so I wouldn't put much stock in the quality of the information here.

Let's also not forget: looking too far into the future is as bad as living in the past. Don't forget the present.

[racer-x]

I couldn't care less really. I bought a dual-layer burner for the speed and price, I never planned to burn a dual-layer disk anyway. Very rarely do I compile enough material to go beyond 4.38 GIGs.

I do think that it's more to do with pressure from the movie industry. I'm sure with BlueRay and HD-DVD, they'll have much better copy protection.

[bazooka]

. I'm sure with BlueRay and HD-DVD, they'll have much better copy protection.

It will still be broken.

[Gurm]

I think that people overestimate this whole "Blue Ray" and "HD DVD" thing. The public doesn't move that fast. HOW MANY years did it take the public to adopt DVD's? CD's came out, WENT AWAY ENTIRELY and then finally came back several years LATER. The public takes forever to adopt something, especially Joe Blue-Collar who only buys something new when the old one breaks.

DVD's are here to stay, I don't see mainstream adoption of any NEW format until 2010. That's just me prognosticating.

But the DL technology, as currently promoted, is horrible. So-so compatibility, absurd price. Yikes! Considering that you can regularly buy single-layer 8x media for 50 cents apiece at retail, but dual-layer media is 10 DOLLARS apiece, that's just nutty. And it's not likely to go down anytime soon.

[joepic]

This article is way off base. Not taking into consideration the reality of the next generation hardware/media cost and backwards compatibilty to the DVD5/DVD9 media.

Do you think the media cost or burner price for the (Blu-Ray and HD DVD) is going to be cheap?

Also a MAJOR item that is not mentioned is copying (backing up the purchased media) of the new media format (Blu-Ray and HD DVD). Until this is able to be done burner and media prices are going to be VERY expensive as the masses will not buy these items.

Finally if the new media is not backwards compatible the sales will be very limited as folks are not going to buy a second DVD player that is very expensive and not be able to play their current DVD's.

There is also going to be a format war (VHS vs Betamax) and it would be wise to wait and see who wins before purchasing a new DVD player or burner. So it maybe a very long time before the new formats catch on.

[tumbar]

I would buy and use DL media at $2.50. As long as the media price stays above that point I will stick with single layer.

Consumers have just been switched or are still in the process of being cycled from vcr to dvd. Now what are they going to do, chunck all the dvd players and buy new ones that also read HD and BluRay? I don't think so.

The techies and video nuts (us) will buy but I don't think joe sixpack will.

Personally, I don't see that huge leap quality wise, perhaps my eyes.

HD and BlueRay are going to have a struggle in that regard. 8)

[Nilfennasion]

There is a saw of murphy's law regarding new technology adoption that the Consortium would do well to learn. It relates to DVD-Audio, so I will quote it in its original form (you can see how it relates to other formats):

* Every player that can only play DVD-Video getting onto the market makes it a little harder for DVD-Audio to get a foothold.

Indeed, we are already seeing this market effect with DL media: the vast majority of players currently in the marketplace cannot play it, so consumers are not adopting it. Even firmware updates are not helping in this regard.

[Topher5000]

I don't back up my DVDs, I just rip them to my HD so I can play them with my xbox. I did however, just buy a Pioneer 108 to back up my data & DL media would be great for that. I think any HD od blue-ray media would be overkill.

[raffie]

I hate to say "I told you so".

idem dito
Sorry smurf, but I wouldn't call about 6 months (when the Philips Blu-ray burner comes out) looking too far into the future.
Blu-ray will be here sooner than you'd excpect

[Faustus]

I figure it will take -R DL to make things competitive. Then mix a few more decent media manufacters and your setting youself up for an eventual price drop.

[sammie]

I think that Blu whichever coming out isn't as important this moment as it it where it is on the price curve. What I mean is that every new technology starts out expensive and with no installed base. I think that there will be somewhat less market resistance to Blu in that we are now trained to accept that little disk thingy as the way to watch movies. Plus and most importantly, both flavors are coming out with recorders up front so there will be a "data" based market early on.

What I see is that Blu won't be lagging DL that much on the price curve. So a lot of people will take the point of view of I'll just wait a year or two. Plus there are factors working against DL on the price curve and for Blu. Competing formats will probably drive the cost down faster than a single format. The big "but" being if you choose the wrong flavor and buy an expensive early rig.

DL price is low from a hardware point of view. New burners pretty much all support it. Players "should" although as Nilfennasion points out often don't. But it is by all acounts a QC and manufacturing nightmare. There is a level of complexity that manufacturers haven't got their arms around yet and they seem to be saying it is going to take a year to 18 months to work out. Prices will stay higher till they do.

So the question is does that year or 18 months push the DL curve out to where it overlaps the Blu curve too much for the format to ever take off? I dunno............ My guess is it does to a large degree, but not completely. A huge chunk of people already have a DL burner, maybe even whether they know it or not. What you will probably see is most people doing some DL stuff at some point, but my guess it that it will never be the mainstay of backups. The bulk will go from SL to Blu with DL being a significant, but still niche portion of the market for a few years.

[Xesdeeni]

Indeed, we are already seeing this market effect with DL media: the vast majority of players currently in the marketplace cannot play it...

I haven't seen anything on compatibility being this low. Where did you get this information?

Xesdeeni

[lordsmurf]

Until you can get BL/HDDVD players for $40, and BL burners for $50, fat chance on it being picked up. DVD DL media works with current player hardware.

Xesdeeni, check any number of posts in the MEDIA forum. I put a study up from a magazine last month. It was pathetic.

I was making discs in 2001, but most people have only in the past year gotten a DVD burner. Players have been out for 10 years now. It'll be at least 2009 before you see BL/HDDVD stuff anywhere important. Same can be said for HDTV and other stuff. It exists, but in a very small niche, a far cry, nay A SCREAM AND HOLLER, from mainstream.

[CaptainVideo]

Blu-Ray or HD-DVD is a loooong way off before becoming mainstream. DVD players reached mass adoption the fastest of any consumer electronics format in history. It took 4 years for 12 million units to be sold, where with the VCR it took 5 years to sell just over 800,000.

Part of the reason DVD's took off so fast after their introduction in late 1996 was due in part because there was no format war. There was no worry that if you bought one technology, a competing one would make your purchase useless. Since there are two competing technologies for HD-DVD, adoption will be slow. The other problem with these units is they are dependant on HDTV adoption and that has yet to reach mass penetration and won't for several more years. No, DL media will drop in price and consumers will use them. It just might be another year before it happens. I mean, it was only introduced in mid 2004. How long did it take for single layer media to drop in price? How soon we forget...

[bazooka]

I hate to say "I told you so".

idem dito
Sorry smurf, but I wouldn't call about 6 months (when the Philips Blu-ray burner comes out) looking too far into the future.
Blu-ray will be here sooner than you'd excpect

You are forgetting that you need the media to go with it.

That new burner will not do any good without blanks.

[That Bastid]

The general public is shockingly immune to considerations of picture (and audio) quality. The typical buyer (few of whom populate forums like this) simply cannot tell the difference unless someone points it out to them.

This is a huge problem for HDTV set makers, for instance, since they were completely surprised by the popularity of EDTV units. They should not have been -- the public only knows a few buzzwords, like "plasma"; they do not understand the various formats, and can barely tell them apart even when the sets are side by side.

Blu-Ray will not suffer quite the same fate as DVD-Audio, but neither will it be the huge success proponents are imagining. Between the huge proportion of people who can't tell the difference, and the population of people who won't move to the format until its content can be stolen, Blu-Ray's future is by no means assured.

[Xesdeeni]

Xesdeeni, check any number of posts in the MEDIA forum. I put a study up from a magazine last month. It was pathetic.

I guess you are talking about your reference to DV magazine? But I have the same reservations about their non-video credibility as you (I love reading their video articles, but there are plenty of examples of...shall we say...lack of expertise outside of that realm ) . But I've found other references, here and elsewhere, that just aren't that bad where DL compatibility is concerned:

https://www.videohelp.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=246484: Edmund Blackadder sites 7 out of 7 players that work fine with Verbatim DLs (3 have problem with Ritek DLs).

http://club.cdfreaks.com/lite/t-98135.html: MyWGT posted some tests from c't and found (not surprisingly) that DLs IDd as DVD-ROM work in something like 77% of the players tested, while DVD+R IDd discs are much worse.

http://www.quepublishing.com/articles/article.asp?p=357294&seqNum=3 indicates that most set-top boxes are compatible.

Admittedly these and others I've seen are anechdotal, but I was surprised that you (and bazooka) had so strong a comment about this. Most of the other places seemed to have much more hopeful results. Of course, I think the jury will be out until the price drops enough for there to be a reasonable coverage. Then maybe we'll know for sure.

Xesdeeni

[bazooka]

Xesdeeni,

Pcworld, Pcmagazine and many other computer magazines disagree with you.

In fact when the new Pioneer drive was being reviewed, software errors ruined two dual layer blanks.

I would not just go off of websites.

My sources actually get paid to review the equipment.

[lordsmurf]

Xesdeeni, it comes down to this:

- Most sources that insist DL media is great have no credibilty, or are the ramblings of a single person with limited media on limited players. Or is the marketing arm of the RW Alliance.

- Most sources that have "extensively" tested the media, and find it to fail miserably are only partially credible, or have holes in the data (like the DV report).

- A good number of reliable reviewers and users have about a 50-50 outcome, on average.

It's a safe assessment that DVD+R DL is very lackluster at the moment. Everybody knows it, it's one of those dirty little secrets people, including the makers, keep trying to hide. A few happy people here and there won't change that OVERALL assessment, no more than a couple happy CMC or PRINCO users makes that great media.

I wish it was different, but it's not. It is what it is. And it's just not very good. Not yet, at least.

[Gurm]

Not only that, but when they "test" the compatibility, they use a perfectly-burnt disc.

Now, go look in THIS forum and see how many posts go:

"I can't get a dual-layer to burn without the layer break messing up!"

And put 2 and 2 together.

[bazooka]

Not only that, but when they "test" the compatibility, they use a perfectly-burnt disc.

Now, go look in THIS forum and see how many posts go:

"I can't get a dual-layer to burn without the layer break messing up!"

And put 2 and 2 together.

You are correct gurm.

[lordsmurf]

Yes, coaster rate of DL media is atrocious too. Compatibility is almost a non-issue compared to problems ACTUALLY GETTING TO the good burn where you can even bother to test it.

Software support and burning utilities are also very disappointing at this point in time.

I already dealt with this in 2001. I'm surely not subjecting myself to this kind of punishment again.

[sammie]

@LS I'm a bit on the other side of the argument, but not so much that I don't see your scenario holding up. But your figures seem a bit off. The latest figures I've seen show that just over 13% of US households have an HD capable TV and that the current sales percent breakdown is considerably higher. Most forecasts I've seen put the 90% of households numbers as happening in about 5 years, and those are the pessimistic/realistic ones depending on how you want to look at it. So I'd argue that HD is in fact within a few years of reality. What I think is debatable is whether there are not enough HDTVs out there within the say 18 month time frame for DL to get a market hold before Blu devices begin to hit the consumer market. In that sense you point is valid.

Why would you say Blu players have to be $40 and Blu burners $50? Yes there are DVD players and burners in the last 6 months that meet those criteria and aren't quite complete crap, but the average price for a burner is around $80 and the average price for a player is over a hundred (granted biased by higher end progressive scan/network models). Certainly the prices for each were substantially higher when DVDs passed the 50% of households level. If your point is that Blu anything is going to be at the "Pro-sumer" cost level for the next couple of years, then I agree and that is the window for DL to establish a base. But I think if you look back at both players and burners $300 is more the magic point where regular type folks start buying them. Even then to a large degree players will be driven a lot more by available content than by absolute price.

Finally, DL in a burned format certainly isn't a mature technology by any stretch. In fact, you could probably make a good case that it's the same "age" or even newer than Blu. It is just theoretically more compatible with current installed hardware base. But again that is theoretically. The compatibility and manufacturing issues are well known and are likely to hold the price high on the media for some time yet. In fact, one of the key arguments for HD-DVD is that burnable blanks won’t require any major upgrades from existing SL-DVD technology. I’ll be more confident about that when they start making some, but everything I’ve read says manufacturers feel that HD-DVD media will be less of a hassle to make than DL’s are.

Does that mean that DL’s won’t succeed? Heck no. Since there certainly are $50 DVD players out there and since those are all but disposable, set top box makers can easily put out new models to overcome any compatibility issues. We all know how many cheap players Apex sold, just because they were early on compatible with VCD’s, xVCDs, SVCDs, CVDs, and burned DVDs of all flavors. I expect the same thing as the set top manufacturers work to insure their boxes will play burned DLs. Except for my first high end RCA player I’ve turned over my set top boxes about every 2 years and in talking to friends I don’t think that’s too unusual. So even if my current box isn’t compatible, my next one will be, and will probably be purchased before Blu becomes readily available at a mainstream consumer price. My burner already is DL. Not because I wanted one, but because that’s what a good chunk of the new burners are.

So I think that DL has a chance, but it has to get good quality compatible disks in the $3.00 price range (I don’t think the sub $1.00 junk spindle price drives the market). If it does, then it will be around at least till Blu starts hitting the 50% market penetration. And one assumes if it makes it that long the bugs will have been worked out and it might even get a chance to have become the standard over SL…….but I think that’s an even tougher argument. So bottom line I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your conclusion, but I think you are overstating your supporting arguments.

[raffie]

I hate to say "I told you so".

idem dito
Sorry smurf, but I wouldn't call about 6 months (when the Philips Blu-ray burner comes out) looking too far into the future.
Blu-ray will be here sooner than you'd excpect

You are forgetting that you need the media to go with it.

That new burner will not do any good without blanks.

And that's exactly what's holding DL back, isn't it?

I highly doubt SL blu-ray discs 'll be more excpensive then $10 a piece when they come out. That's about what a CD-R costs when CD-burners came out in 96, and what a DVD-R costs in 2001 when DVD-writers came out.