HD-DVD Gets Major Backing By 3 Studios.

[MOVIEGEEK]

"Toshiba says it can make HD DVDs disks for approximately the same price as current DVDs and that HD DVD players will be introduced in the U.S. later next year. Moreover, players of disks based on Toshiba's HD DVD technology would be able to play current DVDs as well as those in high-definition...Moreover, Toshiba is already producing HD DVDs at a plant in Japan, while the more complicated Blu-ray process has yet to enter commercial production."


www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2004/nf20041027_5297_db002.htm

[BJ_M]

good --- good to hear that ....

of course sony controls 40% of the movies -- so that going to put a big bump in things ...

[MOVIEGEEK]

Sony also backed Beta and remember what happened to that?

[BJ_M]

yea --- but back then they had not bought up all the major studios and have one of the top selling console games .....

[MikieV]

Sony may be buying a pair of studios, and it will no doubt get commitment from them for Blu-ray, but that probably won't help it win the hearts and minds of the rest of Hollywood -- or consumers

Interesting that the story doesn't mention Twentieth Century Fox has also joined - so MGM-United Artists, Columbia, and Fox will be on Blu-ray.

And in any event, the studios intend to make the deal nonexclusive, meaning they could still put their films out on Sony's Blu-ray format as well.

It will be interesting to see if Fox and Sony-controlled studios intend to be non-exclusive in their licensing, and put their titles on HD-DVD.

Warner was widely expected to be the first of the major movie makers to join Toshiba. The studio was part of the consortium (which included Toshiba) that developed the current DVD and holds several patents for which it collects royalties on DVDs sold.

Warner has a vested interest in seeing HD-DVD succeed. What incentive do Universal and Disney have in seeing HD-DVD win the war, other than the price of the discs?

[jntaylor63]

Two things will win the war of the HighDef formats:

Choice and Cost.

If movie 1 is in two formats X and Y and format X is cheaper along with its player, people will chose the format X.

I like Blu-Ray for its disk space, but I see HD-DVD as the winner:

1.) HD-DVD will cost studios less money to retool. (The same machines that press DVD's can be switched to press DVD. Blu-Ray will need all new machines. (So I have read)
2.) The average consumer will see the logo HD-DVD on equal footing with DVD. The name "DVD" is understandable and know to them.

Day one, there will be both players on the racks. There will be more Blu-Ray than HD-DVD players. (As more companies are behind Blu-Ray) People will find most movies in both formats, but Sony may hold a big movie or two back in only Blu-Ray. (To bait and hook consumers to that format) I won't be buying any of them when they hit the stores for a good while. Unless some company makes a DVD/HD-DVD/BluRay machine at a reasonable price.

[bugster]

Hi-def DVD (of either flavour) requires Hi-def TV to take proper advantage of it. This may be taking off in the US and Japan at the moment but is still not available to most of europe. (I don't know about the rest of the world). Until HD TV's are common worldwide this is likley to remain a fairly niche product anyway, so neither format will win for quite a few years yet I think!

[MikieV]

If movie 1 is in two formats X and Y and format X is cheaper along with its player, people will chose the format X.

Which reminds me of the LaserDisc/VideoDisc (CED) format "war" (eons ago) when my relatives and friends were buying the CED movies & players - and couldn't understand why I was willing to pay more for the LaserDisc.

I don't have a vested interest in either Blu-ray or HD-DVD, but I am curious to see how the game plays-out.

[RabidDog]

Last death rattle of a dying industry ??? everything will be downloaded in the future on phat fibre optics or super wideband wimax or from personal satellites.

Sony also backed ELCASSETTE and MINIDISC.. I backed v2000

[Krispy Kritter]

Whether it is downloaded or not, you have to store it somewhere. These will be the same discs that we will be burning data to in the future.

[Skoorb]

Blu-ray not in commercial production? You can already buy players and disks in Japan, AFAIK.

All this war is going to do for me is ensure that I buy neither format until a clear winner emerges. DVD will tide me over, especially when DL prices continue to plumment, until something definite comes about.

[MOVIEGEEK]

UPDATE:

"29 November, 2004


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tokyo -- Toshiba Corporation disclosed today that the company has received separate commitments of support from Paramount Pictures, Universal Pictures, New Line Cinema, and Warner Bros. Studios, respectively for the next-generation, high-definition DVD disc format, HD DVD."

www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2004_11/pr2901.htm

[MikieV]

Too bad this news doesn't make the picture any clearer.

A non Press Release story: http://tinyurl.com/4kaaa

Toshiba plans to start selling its first HD DVD products, a player and a recorder, and a laptop with a built-in HD DVD drive in late 2005.

Yoshihide Fujii, corporate senior vice-president overseeing the digital media business, said Toshiba is targeting annual HD DVD-related sales of 5-billion yen ($49-million) in 2005, and expects that to climb to 300-billion yen ($3-billion) by 2010.

Fujii said the spread of flat TVs is boosting the demand for high-quality digital movies and other content. The endorsement from Hollywood is a plus for HD DVD, but he stopped short of saying the deals were exclusive and refused to provide details.

"Even if we come out with the hardware, without content, it's just a box," he told reporters at a Tokyo hotel.

What is mentioned earlier, in the same article - and is what really bothers me is:

The lineup of movies is considered crucial to selling electronic products. But analysts say studios are likely to bring out films for whichever format becomes the standard and are ultimately unlikely to be loyal either format.

This just keeps getting to be more of a Betamax/VHS war, all over again. Even those who are not ignorant of history seem doomed to repeat it.

[BJ_M]

well it will keep prices in line right away with a standards war - is the good side of it..


nothing like a good old price war and HD-DVD has an advantage as it is cheaper to make and make disks ..

[BJ_M]

but sony has been known to sell at a loss to get market share .

[MikieV]

This is interesting:

http://tinyurl.com/4qz9l

With DVD and HD-DVD content on the same disc, this would be a way to "transition" to HD-DVD.

My only concern:

The discs, which took six months to develop, will have a memory capacity of 19.7 gigabytes, with 4.7 GB of regular DVD space and 15 GB of high-resolution space, Memory-Tech spokesman Masato Otsuka said.

So, it can hold a DVD-5 movie, but not a DVD-9 one - on the DVD media. How much HD-DVD can fit in 15Gig?(edit - changed 19.7 to 15) Is that the equivalent space needed for the same movie in HD-DVD?

Probably answer my own question - it would seem silly to develop this dual-format if it couldn't contain the entire movie, in both formats! 8)

[Nilfennasion]

Mikie...

Experience has shown that 4.35 GB is definitely not enough to store a feature film in 480I or 576I without a serious degredation in picture quality. A quick comparison between the regular and Superbit releases of Hollow Man can confirm this. In fact, even the 7.9 GB of RSDL discs is really stretching it. Not to mention that with all the soundtrack and subtitle options that was supposed to be a big selling point of SD-DVD, 10.0 MB/S has turned out to be an inadequate bitrate for content of these resolutions.

So with that in mind, I doubt that 15 GB is going to be nearly enough to store 1080I or (better yet) 720P material without serious compromises. Double the disc size to 30GB (which I can still copy to my hard drives :P), and then we might be talking.

[Skoorb]

Mikie...

Experience has shown that 4.35 GB is definitely not enough to store a feature film in 480I or 576I without a serious degredation in picture quality. A quick comparison between the regular and Superbit releases of Hollow Man can confirm this. In fact, even the 7.9 GB of RSDL discs is really stretching it. Not to mention that with all the soundtrack and subtitle options that was supposed to be a big selling point of SD-DVD, 10.0 MB/S has turned out to be an inadequate bitrate for content of these resolutions.

So with that in mind, I doubt that 15 GB is going to be nearly enough to store 1080I or (better yet) 720P material without serious compromises. Double the disc size to 30GB (which I can still copy to my hard drives :P), and then we might be talking.

Yeah this dual format disc is a total farce. A lot of current movies do fit on a DVD-5 without compression, but only if you rip just the movie itself, kill any extra soundtracks, and have no extra options. Even then, like you said, often compression has to kick in.

Then 15 gigs of HD-DVD isn't much. Already a dual will handle 8.5. So, you've just bought a poor rendition of the movie on DVD, with a marginally better picture on HD-DVD. Nobody will buy these disks, and I'd put money on it.

[samuraijack]

My wife used to sell video for one of the five major distributing houses. She predicted the fall of VHS and promptly got out of the market. DVD profits are too slim. One things she always says is to never overestimate how fast something can become popular or how much they will want it, if you say its a Limited Offer. Seems like there is always someone looking for exclusivity. I remember when DVD came out, we had a player in the next few weeks. Our friends were amazed and sused phrases like bleeding edge etc... Now everyone has them.
My point? These guys are just like the folks at Bell Labs who make the Radar euipment. They make new technology, release it to the police, wait for the fear to build and then sell to the public. The DVD makers are doing the same thing. They could wait a bit longer and get a unified architecture, but I think the controversy and the uncertainty actually helps them make more money. I sided with DVD-R. Now we have dual players and I am sorely tempted to get one. Why? Because being a good consumer, I WANT BOTH! So thats what they will do, make two camps, fight a little, then come to terms and make machines that can handle both formats. In the meantime, the forums will be laced with flames of each others camps ( more comsumer impressions for each company), folks switching side ( more money for each company with each drive you buy) and in the end, they will seem like conquering heros because they brought us drives that can handle both...and the format war will settle quietly until they decide they need to stir things up a bit.
<end cynical rant>

[Cornucopia]

You all seem to think that there will be 2 mutually incompatible formats encoded on dual-rez discs, but that isn't necessarily true. There is already a patented process that can use the SD-DVD content as a portion/element of building the HD-DVD content. Analogous to a "Shared Hybrid Mac/PC" disc.

I don't know if this is actually the way they are going to do it, as the companies aren't releasing specs to us regular folk yet. I hope they actually ARE doing it this way (for other personal reasons). 8)

Guess we'll just have to wait and see...

Scott

[MikieV]

So with that in mind, I doubt that 15 GB is going to be nearly enough to store 1080I or (better yet) 720P material without serious compromises. Double the disc size to 30GB (which I can still copy to my hard drives :P), and then we might be talking.

Thanks.

I was hoping I was wrong about them developing a disc with only 3x the SD storage space for HD.

Seemed like HD should take-up more than 3 x SD.

Mike

[MikieV]

Then 15 gigs of HD-DVD isn't much. Already a dual will handle 8.5. So, you've just bought a poor rendition of the movie on DVD, with a marginally better picture on HD-DVD. Nobody will buy these disks, and I'd put money on it.

Or worse, they will buy them - and their first-impression of HD (and whichever studios release movies on these discs) will be lousy.

Spooky thought: Would video-rental chains like these, because they could have one copy of a movie - in both SD and HD? Wouldn't the bean-counters love that - even though it would suck for the customer?

Mike

[MikieV]

You all seem to think that there will be 2 mutually incompatible formats encoded on dual-rez discs, but that isn't necessarily true. There is already a patented process that can use the SD-DVD content as a portion/element of building the HD-DVD content.

I remember reading about a system like that - for broadcast use. It was proposed as a way to ease the transition from SD to HD, by having two signals broadcast for every channel.

People with existing sets would only display the SD information, while people with HD receivers would have the 2nd signal's information "added" to the SD info - to form the HD picture.

Benefit: Broadcasters happy, because they can keep their SD equipment. Viewers happy, because they don't have to buy a new TV and/or tuner - unless they want HD.

Problem: Needing both signals to arrive at the same time, or else "ghost city" - for HD viewers.

The FCC decided to mandate the jump to HD without that hybrid, intermediate step - leaving the market to decide on progressive or interlaced.

Question 1: Can a "regular" HD-DVD player shift back/forth between SD & HD layers fast enough to generate the "composite" HD signal?

Question 2: Who would need this, other than video stores trying to limit their shelf-stock?

(edit It would make for a damned-interesting copy-protection scheme, though - wouldn't it??

Mike

[Cornucopia]

Problem: Needing both signals to arrive at the same time, or else "ghost city" - for HD viewers.

The FCC decided to mandate the jump to HD without that hybrid, intermediate step - leaving the market to decide on progressive or interlaced.

Question 1: Can a "regular" HD-DVD player shift back/forth between SD & HD layers fast enough to generate the "composite" HD signal?

Question 2: Who would need this, other than video stores trying to limit their shelf-stock? Anyone else would have a HD-DVD player without a HD-capable screen to watch it on...??

Mike

Sync/Ghosting might be a problem with broadcast/sat, but it isn't with disc-based content.

A1: Yes, "regular" HD-DVD players would be able to composite the HD picture fast enough. Of course this depends on what you define as "regular HD". It is possible currently to build a modded SD-DVD player that would be capable of supporting this, except there aren't any VLSI chips available to make it easy. Can't say more about this right now.

A2: I don't know, but would think that many consumers would like to "future-proof" their libraries if they know they will want HD later on, but can't afford it currently.

Scott

>>>>>>>>>
edit: re/Copyprotection: yeah, I could see people trying to rip the SD portion.

Wait a minute...I would guess that a new HD format would have Newer/More Advanced encryption. That would pretty much prevent people from ripping. At least right away.

[MikieV]

A1: Yes, "regular" HD-DVD players would be able to composite the HD picture fast enough. Of course this depends on what you define as "regular HD".

Since there aren't any HD-DVD players on the market, I used quotes around 'regular' I haven't studied the tech specs of either HD-DVD or Blu-ray, but it does seem like it would give the mechanism a workout to be: shifting laser-focus between layers and shifting between SD & HD track-spacings and varying disc speed (if it isn't the same rotation-speed for both formats). Of course, that is assuming the current model of a single laser. (ASSUME = ass + u + me)

A2: I don't know, but would think that many consumers would like to "future-proof" their libraries if they know they will want HD later on, but can't afford it currently.

I would tend to agree, but this dual-format should only be around during the transition to HD. That doesn't sound very 'future-proof' to me. And, the earlier comments about the inadequate space for a high-quality SD version of the movie make me worry about the HD quality - if it is building on merely "acceptable" SD.

Wait a minute...I would guess that a new HD format would have Newer/More Advanced encryption. That would pretty much prevent people from ripping. At least right away.

Agreed. I was just struck by the idea of how "interesting" it would make ripping the disc - and integrating the two streams of data - without regard to any newer encryption on HD-DVD and/or Blu-ray.

Mike

[edDV]

While reading through this thread I wondered "where is the money?".

HD-DVD is based on current red laser technology and a HD/SDTV combo player could be cheaply made (in China) and existing DVD disc production technology can be used to mass produce the HD-DVD discs.

Currently, set manufactureres and cable companies are steering people into "cheap" entry level direct view HDTV "ready" CRTs or various intermediate resolution (720-1450x1080i) projection display HDTV sets using 1080i for distribution.

So where is the money? Maybe first in the HD-DVD 1080i rental market to fill the viewing demand for these low cost HDTV set early adopters. The first thing these early adopters discover is that "over the air" and cable HDTV offerings are in short supply and will remain so until a critical mass of viewers develop. If they like HDTV, they will seek rental HD-DVD discs to fill the void. Others will rely on rentals as their primary HDTV source.

I see deals at Blockbuster et. al. to bundle a cheap HD-DVD 1080i player into a pre-paid rental program (similar to "free" cellphones). The customer sees that he isn't risking too much on hardware and signs up.

Meanwhile Sony et. al. concentrate initially on the higher end plasma projection, quality sensitive market with 720p, 1080i and 1080p Blu-Ray player solutions that also play standard DVD and hopefully 1080i HD-DVD as well. These players can be expensive at first and the Blu-Ray DVD discs can include a price premium for "Super-HDTV 1080P" snob appeal (and future proof) capability.

This gives Blu-Ray disc manufacturing facilities room to steadily grow until, voila ! they absorb the HD-DVD market as those customers move up to 720p and 1080p sets.

[MikieV]

And now we have this news:

http://www.macworld.com/news/2004/12/16/nec/index.php

Having a drive that can work with CD, DVD and HD-DVD will definately have an impact on the format wars!

To produce the drive, engineers had to overcome several hurdles, said Toshiaki Iwanaga, principal researcher at NEC's optical recording technology center.

One of these hurdles is related to the optical head, which sits just above the disc and is one of the most crucial components in the device. Each of the three disc formats uses a laser that produces light of a different wavelength so the head must be compatible with all three types: 780 nanometer (nm) light used in CDs, 650 nm used in DVDs and 405 nm used in HD-DVD.

Working with engineers from Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd., which is also supporting HD-DVD, the team succeeded in producing an optical head that integrates support for all three formats.

NEC also had to integrate support for the different formats into a single chip. They succeeded in doing this and also included signal processing circuitry, said Iwanaga.

The new prototype marks a miniaturization of the drive technology. A year ago NEC showed a full height drive that supported HD-DVD and DVD only. The latest drive adds CD support to the mix and is half-height size, which makes it suitable for installation in the drive bays present in most desktop computers.

Mike

[BJ_M]

good old NEC .. first out of the gate ...

[EvilWizardGlick]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/12/15/cryptography_research/
"If you believe the hype, DVD manufacturers will likely have to buy in two types of DVD manufacturing equipment. Households will have to buy two DVD players. Consumers will have to buy one PC with one type of high density DVD player and buy another separate player to read the other format of disk.
Click Here

We neither believe the hype, nor understand the argument between the two formats. Surely a single format is better for everyone, but it appears not. Every round of format wars that have gone on since the original VHS Betamax wars, has been split, and the result a draw, and it looks like this one will be too.

In the end the devices are likely to be virtually identical. The Sony- Panasonic-Philips camp that inspired the Blu-ray version may have slightly more capacity on their discs, that's the official view right now, but it might change. They also have devices out right now and have had them for over a year, but they are very expensive, up at around $2,000 and are not the volume versions that will be able to play pre-recorded material. Eventually these devices will be about 10 per cent more than DVD players are now.

The DVD Forum backed Toshiba and NEC technology may be slightly cheaper for studios to manufacture, but then again we only have the word of Toshiba on that, and most DVD producers seem set on supporting both.

The disks need to play on PCs, as well as DVDs and games consoles, and it is unlikely that anyone is going to shoot themselves in the foot by making a disc that is incompatible with any of these devices.

So Microsoft's VC 9 codec has to be supported, as does the prevalent MPEG2 and H.264 codecs, and nobody is planning to argue the toss about the quality of sound from Dolby. So there is a chance that all of the software on top of these disks is going to be identical.

In the end all of the Blu-ray manufacturers are still in the DVD Forum, and given that the Blu-ray leaders make about 90 per cent of the worlds DVD players and that half of the studios have backed the DVD Forum standard, their players may well end up playing both formats. The early consumers may well be asking "What's the difference" a year from now having little clue as to how different the two technologies are, under the "hood.""

[Krispy Kritter]

Meanwhile Sony et. al. concentrate initially on the higher end plasma projection, quality sensitive market with 720p, 1080i and 1080p Blu-Ray player solutions that also play standard DVD and hopefully 1080i HD-DVD as well. These players can be expensive at first and the Blu-Ray DVD discs can include a price premium for "Super-HDTV 1080P" snob appeal (and future proof) capability.

This gives Blu-Ray disc manufacturing facilities room to steadily grow until, voila ! they absorb the HD-DVD market as those customers move up to 720p and 1080p sets.

HDTV spec is 720P OR 1080i...there is no 1080P.