DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years: Bill Gates

[jolo]

Consumer based technology goes to what is affordable and easily distributed. It also goes to vendors agreements. I would like to see us take an active role in this decision by our buying and usage power. Better is not as important as affordibility. So who knows. Truthfully, there is a possibility of Microsoft being clobbered if there is an honest judges who cannot be bought.

Another item of influence is the horrific MIAA and RIAA. They have spent a lifetime trying to stifle creativity and technology. Their influence in Congress and the money they are throwing aroung has given them more influence than ever.

Whatever happens, happens, but remember Gate's words about the future are ALWAYS going to be self-serving and are meant to help them dominate and influence.

Gates is going after dominance in the search engine field. They are making attempts to purchase Google. I better look for other search engines.

Is there an honest judge who will stop this agreement?

I cannot believe that this 500 million judgement for Microsoft may be changed, plus some web companies are backing Microsoft!

When a Lidows win sounds more like a loss

[fearmyrage]

On the earlier post about MEMcards being the future when they are cheaper.

http://www.memorylabs.net/macoflha.html

[fearmyrage]

The reason nobody has mentioned D-VHS is because it is tape-based and therefore will degrade with repeated plays. It is therefore an unsellable format. The only advantage it has over HD-DVD is that it is currently available and not vapourware. When the HD-DVD camp finally settles on a system, D-VHS will die.

That is not inherently true. D-VHS is made of heavier metals, and the wear affects it FAR less. Also, they are digital as opposed the the analog VHS. Which means no snowy picture, either its there (and perfect), or not there at all, just like air wave HDTV. And then you take into consideration how much more physically durable tapes are opposed to DVD and I would they are pretty well matched.

[flaninacupboard]

On the earlier post about MEMcards being the future when they are cheaper.

http://www.memorylabs.net/macoflha.html

The platter in it is made of -glass-?

[Nilfennasion]

FYI CD audio is no comparison to vinyl. That's like comparing an original CD track to a MP3. Now DVD audio on the other hand......

It depends on who you talk to. CD-DA does not have the high analogue noise floor of vinyl, for one thing. I've yet to hear a turntable with a price that is measured in less than four figures that I find more pleasant to listen to in comparison to a CD player of similar specifications. They are also far easier to destroy compared to CD. I've thrown CDs across rooms that have concrete floors and been able to play them after the fact.

And then you take into consideration how much more physically durable tapes are opposed to DVD and I would they are pretty well matched.

Speaking of which, whenever you stretch a tape over a head, you do it damage. Especially on the cheapie tape players that will find their way into most people's homes if D-VHS becomes the standard. If the heads are dirty or misaligned, they can stretch or smear the tape. If the mechanics of the player are mangled in the right way, they can break the tape and render it unplayable.

The ways in which a DVD can be rendered unplayable, while simple and easy to fall into, are not inherent in the playback method.

[flaninacupboard]

they are too! :P
DVD players can get hot, hot enough to affect the discs. they can also spin the discs fast enough to seperate the layers. you can be loading a disc when the tray closes by itself, eating half your disc. and if you leave a DVD and a D-VHS next to each other on a shelf i personally believe the D-VHS will last longest.

Plus, i don't see many posts "Help! my DV tapes have degraded!!"

[Nilfennasion]

Being in Australia, you'd be surprised how often I hear about discs being destroyed because the player got too hot (ie never). Delamination used to be a problem in Australia, that much is true, but user complaints prompted the distributors to rectify the problem. I find it strange that distributors' policies with regards to packaging or format complaints are so lax in America compared with here, honestly.

Believe me, if you gave me a DVD and a D-VHS of RoboCop, and told me I could play them as much as I liked as long as I always alternated between the two, the D-VHS would be worn transparent long before I had any complaints about the DVD.

[flaninacupboard]

but that's not how normal people use their media. maybe a three year old wants to watch little mermaid 5 times a day, and the DVD would be better. for adults though, i think a magnetic cassette is more robust than an optical disc - especially if you want to do scary things like lend them to friends...

No idea what the discs are like in america, i'm in the U.K. :P

[fearmyrage]

Not to mention how annoying renting a DVD is. I would say that in my experiance 1 out of 10 rented DVDs either skip or just stop playing. I have never had that problem with VHS. Also I was speaking to a sales rep about a D-VHS tape he was playing and he told it was a floor display that they have been playing for 2 years (I live in Japan), 8 hours a day, and the picture was flawless. D-VHS is lightyears ahead of VHS. And if you ask me what I am more worried about, a tape breaking, or a DVD getting scratched, I would defintly put my money on the DVD crapping out first.

[flaninacupboard]

Yeah, total number of VHS tapes i have broken, 0. number of screwed up tapes that have been extracted from a naughty video player, 1. Still plays though.

Total number of DVD's that i have which are unreadable, 1 original, 200 princo back ups.

same with CD and LP, all my LP's still work, had to rip and burn a lot of cd's because the originals would jump and skip in my cd player.

[Nilfennasion]

but that's not how normal people use their media. maybe a three year old wants to watch little mermaid 5 times a day, and the DVD would be better. for adults though

My approximate age is mid-twenties. The number of times I watch RoboCop in a day, going by averages, is at least two. On some days, it could be as many as six. Regardless of whether it is metal position or not, there is no way a tape could stand up to the kind of abuse I put my RoboCop discs through.

Rental outlets abuse their discs. The manner in which the staff throw the discs around, and encourage similar treatment within their premises on the part of customers, is not conducive to extended life. This is not, however, the fault of the format.

[flaninacupboard]

hmm, you watch it a lot! you'd probably be best with RAID NAS and HTPC.......

Your viewing patterns aren't normal, and even so Fearmyrage says the tapes would fare ok.

Companies use magentic tape for backup, some cases it's daily. wonder how long their tapes last?

[Nilfennasion]

Believe me, I have RoboCop on so many formats that there's no way I could ever be left wanting for a copy. If I could afford it, I'd buy an interpositive and make my own HD telecine out of it.

There is, of course, the ease of buying a player that can handle magnetic tape formats. I'd probably have to pay thousands to obtain a D-VHS player, but I can just go into any retailer and get a DVD player for less than a couple of hundred dollars.

[flaninacupboard]

yeah, cheapest i can see D-VHS in this country is £750 (AU$1,900 [USD$1350]) but you pay the same for a DVD player with that build and output quality, not to mention your £750 gets you a recorder which'll do 24 hours of D1 per tape

Can only find NTSC models though

[KevMull]

I'm still waiting for all this free leisure (pronounced 'leezure' ) time that was predicted by some US guru in the 50s.
Need this to watch all these DVDs, HDTV, blu-ray, betamax tapes or whatever.

[tag]

I'm still waiting for all this free leisure (pronounced 'leezure' ) time that was predicted by some US guru in the 50s.

Yeah, right. That guy was spot on with that prediction, wasn't he? Someone ought to wake him up (probably start digging) and tell him it sort of went the other way.

[fearmyrage]

Ive seen D-VHS players at my BX for under $800. They output and RECORD HD signal currently and you can record of 20 hours of DVD quality video a D-VHS. There are already blue laser dvd players here in Japan that cost more than that and do less. The only significant advantage I think DVD has over D-Vhs is that it is Random accsess, but I think the D-VHS supports chapter selections, so its not that big of a deal.

[ViRaL1]

Robocop?

[tag]

Robocop?

....and six times per day? Anyone recall Howard Hughes and Ice Station Zebra?

Nilfennasion, please tell me you're not letting your toenails grow excessively long nor bottling your urine. :P

[Nilfennasion]

I regularly pull my toenails out, so no problem there...

[Moloko_Plus]

DVD will never be obsolete. VHS is 20 years old and we still find movies and blank tapes avalable, many stores stock a greater ratio of VHS to blank CDR/DVDR. They said the same thing about cassette too once DVD and CDR came avalable, yet many music labels still produce them. Cassette is older then VHS i believe..

[tag]

I regularly pull my toenails out, so no problem there...

Hmmmm......okay, I get it!

[Nilfennasion]

Obsolesence should be measured by how much the reseller can get out of the customer. In the case of VHS, the Blockbuster near me is trying to sell off all their ex-rental stock for 3 tapes at $10, and every time I have been there for the past three months, the stock has not moved so much as an inch. It's at the stage where you cannot give VHS away. A similar situation exists at music retailers like Sanity with cassettes.

It's one thing when you heavily discount an item to move it, but when you discount it to the point where you're eating twenty bucks on every sale and you still can't move it, that should tell you something. Australia has a very high technology take-up rate, which is surprising given how they basically get raped whenever they buy anything, and VHS was pretty much dead there once DVD-R was announced.

Given that VHS is an unpreservable medium, its extinction is only a matter of time now that the market has stepped up to offer an alternative.

[Muppet Meat]

Maybe we can store 10,000 movies on a I-pod like device in 10 yrs.

[Muppet Meat]

The only reason VHS is still around is because my parents are still around. Many old people's brains dont understand digital. In 75 yrs our grandchildren might be storing thier music in gps chip embedded in thier skin.

[mikesbytes]

Why should I throw out 3 pefectly good VHS decks just because there is a better technology available. When the time comes to send them to the tip, that new technology will be better, cheaper and easier to use.

[ViRaL1]

I can think of two good reasons why VHS is still around...

First of all so many people have VHS tapes and aren't about to go through the hassle or spend the money to have them converted. Even those who are willing to spend the money REpurchasing their VHS movies in DVD format will still need some way to watch anything that they CAN'T buy again, be it a home video, custom video or just plain out of production film.

Second of all, though DVD players have dropped to bargain basement prices as low as $40 or even $30 and are sometimes cheaper than VCRs, they don't record. Even the CHEAPEST DVD recorders are staying around $200, possibly even $150 if you can find a great deal or a refurb. But compared to that same $30 - $40 for a VCR which can play AND record, it's no comparison. Add in the fact that several people don't even have a signal coming in that would see much benefit from DVD (i.e. no cable or dish) and it's just not a cost effective alternative to VHS.

[Moloko_Plus]

I still find benefits from VHS. When i buy obscure movies from places like "Movie Mayhem" and "Shocking Images", those are all on vhs. You think people have done up the dvd for extremely trashy movies? Eh, i dont have any examples off the bat, but the point is not every movie is on dvd yet.

[Nilfennasion]

I have one explanation for those films only being on VHS: the distributors are cheap and lazy.

I mean seriously... if you can get a film like Cannibal Ferox or Debbie Does Everyone In Italy Including The Pope, how hard can it be to get those pieces of trash onto a DVD?

[MeDiCo_BrUjO]

I still have a working betamax and some tapes...