Well, it looks as though blue-ray has more supporters - but (there is always a but isn't there) blue laser has the support of the dvd forum.
Here's the article on cnn:
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The question is how fast will hollywood adopt this technology for its commercial movies, and then the consumers will need new hardware to watch those movies.
*My opinion* is that complete replacement of current DVD technology with this technology will happen slowly, since millions of people would need to get rid of their existing DVD players. HDTV has been out for a couple of years now, and it has not completely replaced regular TV technology, and it probably won't for 20 years or maybe more, given how long TVs tend to last before breaking.
I have a TV set in my house that I bought in 1983 that still works, not to mention my main 32" TV that I bought in 1991 that still works fine. Most people are not likely to want to replace their existing TV if it is still working.
DVD players themselves tend to have a shorter life span, but when/if their DVD player breaks, most people are going to resent being forced to buy an HDTV set because they can only buy a blueray/laser DVD player as a replacement.
Manufacturers would probably attempt to overcome this problem by building some sort of "downconverter" to traditional video format into the new blue ray DVD player. If good quality ouput is obtained, this might hasten the downfall of the current DVD format. However, before eliminating the production of traditional-format DVD players, vendors must ensure that the price of the new blue ray DVD players is not exorbitant compared to the price of traditional players.
Well, the new HD-DVD players will playback old DVD's. The AOD format was chosen over Blu-Ray because of this. From what I have read the AOD flavor can also use the same hardware to create the disk and the laser is cheaper. This in turn should mean a "cheaper" intro into HD-DVD players and disk vs. a Blu-Ray option. I'm sure that if Sony and the rest want to keep pushing Blu-Ray, they will add a laser that will read a DVD / HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. But it will cost more.
The last thing is what codec will HD-DVD use. Its down to:
1.) MPEG2 or MPEG2 with some enhancments
2.) a MPEG4 flavor (H.264, VP6, ect.) which is my hope.
3.) WM9 (God help us.)
The real question on how fast we get into HD-DVD's will be how we get the movies. I don't think that Hollywood will just stop making DVD's. If anything, they will release two versions of a very popular moive. Or you may buy a two disk set. (One in standard def, the other HD-DVD.) A HD-DVD player will almost certainly down grade the video to watch on a standard tv set.
True, we will pay more for the players and movies at first, but it all gets cheaper over time.
With the DVD-Froum going with AOD as its HD-DVD format, Blu-Ray is going to have a big fight. At best, I think it will be used to kill VCR's and great for holding data, but not for movies. I just can't see Sony making both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD for only their movies. Could be wrong, look at their push with mini-discs and Super-CD's. (None of which is doing or did anything)