Will bluray/hddvd be the last commercial application of optical media??

yoda313 · Moderator Joined: 15 Jun 2004 Location: sector 001

So will the first hd optical discs be the last? Will we go into superhigh capacity flash cards in the future? Will harddrives get so massive that the idea of discs will seem so trivial? What are your predictions??

I think there will probably be one successor to the current hddvd/bluray designs and then we will move into whatever comes after optical media. Be it some kind of drm controlled flash memory or something similar. Thoughts???
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nic2k4 · Member Joined: 15 Dec 2004

No bluray or hd-dvd are just a stop gap measure on the way to bigger things. Next on the list is holographic recording using two lasers and offering 30 times the capacity of bluray. E.T.A. 2010.

mats.hogberg · Modded Morloc Joined: 17 Jul 2002 Location: Sweden (PAL)

Yes bluray/hddvd will be the end of the optical disc and Some other nonoptical media will come into existince that will blow everything away

/Mats
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Baldrick · Administrator Joined: 09 Aug 2000 Location: Sweden

Some other nonoptical media will come into existince that will blow everything away...GoogleMedia, 1000TB....

dvdguy4 · Member Joined: 22 Jun 2004 Location: usa

Im the type who has to hold the product. Im not into the on-demand crap cause most likely thats what it will be
This would be cool "Next on the list is holographic recording using two lasers and offering 30 times the capacity of bluray. E.T.A. 2010" but why on earth would we need this much capacity. Its just a movie. Maybe it will let us choose how the movie flows or lets the user change the ending or maybe interact with the characters as if you are playing a part in the movie.Can you imaging how much the next format will be. Its too far into the future to tell whats gonna take over for dvd, and the hd/blu-ray format but until then , Im sticking with normal dvd.
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mats.hogberg · Modded Morloc Joined: 17 Jul 2002 Location: Sweden (PAL)

thecoalman · Member Joined: 25 Feb 2004 Location: Pennsylvania

edsmith77 · Yup Joined: 23 Sep 2002 Location: Washington, D.C.

And what is "todays average task?"
What about virtual reality while surfing or on-line gaming.....not to far around the corner as I see it. In some cases it is already here.
Lets not forget it is not all about speed but bandwidth is a large influence.

thecoalman · Member Joined: 25 Feb 2004 Location: Pennsylvania

I'm not referring to gaming, believe it or not most people who use a computer don't play games on it.

Gaming and things like video will always be more and more demanding but if your just surfing the web, using office or writing an email your needs are pretty much covered. I'm using a 3 year old machine myself, i click the the browser icon it loads up almost instantly... what else do you need?

On the other hand 10 years ago I could go make a sandwich while it was loading.

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SingSing · Member Joined: 30 Apr 2001 Location: U.S.A.

I am betting on $5.00 10GB USB stick, to carry a HD movie.

Or

Maybe HD and BLu end up like EL-casstte/Digital compact casstte, that never main streamed and die. That will made DVD the one and the only and the last format for video.

Radixmind · Member Joined: 24 Feb 2005 Location: in the garden

personally, i dont see the movie buying market taking to another new format for their already existing movie collection - i think the industry has a real hard sell with blu-ray/hd-dvd anyways, and wont really penetrate the market until they get their finger out with recordable versions.

most formats find a market that can sustain them in some way - vinyl is still the format of choice for club dj's, and minidisc is pretty ubiquitous in radio studios for jingles and ads. it takes a new format paradigm to kill of a complete format, and DVD was that, when compared to VHS. the new Disc formats arent that different to most people.

I think the next move will be some form of solid state or hi-capacity unit, the video equivalent of an ipod, that downloads media direct and plays them on your AV system. super high quality won't be an issue, but direct access and purchase will. this will 'kill' both DVD sales and TV broadcasts at one stroke.
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thecoalman · Member Joined: 25 Feb 2004 Location: Pennsylvania

SingSing · Member Joined: 30 Apr 2001 Location: U.S.A.

Verizon is making FIOS the only choice for my residence internet hookup. Maybe they just want to help.

Note : FIOS costs $39.00/month vs DSL $14.99/month

thecoalman · Member Joined: 25 Feb 2004 Location: Pennsylvania

Out of curiosity i figured out what it would take to get a 25,000kbps video over dial-up. Asumming 50kbps download speed and a 90 minute clip it would only take 1875 days or little over 5 years.

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oldandinthe way · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 11:37

BlueRay/HD will be the end of the line for optical media.

Optical media are fundamentally less reliable than other types of media, and have been throughout their existance. Although they have been improved over a 40 year period, their increased size has maintained a high level of risk for archiving data. Just as they had at their introduction.

Video and audio are more tolerant of data loss.

But how much higher definition does anyone need.

Magnetic disks have reached a point where their capacity is a function of software in the drive and mathematical formulas. Growth in capacity while not increasing cost has not topped out.

Flash media yields are increasing and density is increasing. There are now some 16mb flash products and higher capacity products seem to appear at 3-6 month intervals.

Increasingly the sole advantage of optical media is cost, and history shows that advantage is usually lost to technological advances.

Ai Haibara · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 12:29

Wasn't there supposed to be some sort of holographic optical disc that stored about 200GB, or something like that? But, yeah, if scratches are considerably more dangerous to an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray disc, how vulnerable would a 200GB disc be?

SingSing · Member Joined: 30 Apr 2001 Location: U.S.A.

Mark Cuban, who own Dallas maverick, had proposed that rent/buy a movie drive idea.

Cornucopia · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 15:19

lordsmurf · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 16:12

SingSing · Member Joined: 30 Apr 2001 Location: U.S.A.

On these prediction stuff, they are just for entertainment. If any of us are really really good at prediction, s/he should able help us and Sony and Toshiba pick the next 10 powerball winning combinations.

edDV · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 20:11

Movies are just data. The movie companies want a package that allows shelf sales with cover art. They want a media that locks the data from copy and gives the illusion that the media is the movie, not just a data container.

Computer oriented folks see a movie as a file, something to be stored on a server. Remote playback should be possible with networked access to the server.

The IPod generation see a movie as a file selection on their tiny remote playback device.

I think the movie industry is going to have difficulty sustaining the box sale concept.
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oldandinthe way · Posted: Mar 26, 2007 20:32

Hardly retarded. I have 20+ year old hard drives which are still in operation. Their contemporary read write optical drives have long ago been scrapped with all of their media.

Floppy disk based backups. Reel to reel recording tape. VHS. Magnetic media that have degraded but continue to serve their function. I've got plenty of pressed data CDs which no longer can be read. And the format hasn't changed. I wouldn't trust read/write optical media which are generally agreed to be less reliable for long term backups.

Your audio CDs may continue to work, but were they a data device they might not have retained all of their data. Music players tolerate errors which would render data useless. Who cares if you lose a few bits. Hell if quality were important to most music listeners there'd be no MP3. And do you think you could tell if the sound had degraded from what you listened to 20 years ago.

We have a growing collection of external hard disks for data archives, faster and more reliable than CDs or DVDs. And are experimenting with flash for short term backups.

Optical media are only useful to me for music and movies. And in the long term will probably not be my primary storage for them either, as we move to the next level of hard disk technology (no breakthrough needed).

NiteLite · Member Joined: 28 Jul 2004 Location: NoAm

On what we will get, a couple things to remember.
You have a generation that thinks "IPOD" is high fidelity; you have the people who will determine what and when you get - Bill Gates and as such. There's really no choice.

You had a - suppose to be smarter - generation that almost totally defaulted on the next wave of superior sound, SACD & DVD-A. Some of the blame can be put on the hardware and software companies for lack of marketing but still...
So back to the future...it depends on what the kids are spending their money on and what the Gates type want to put out there.
I dont think there's ever been a time when money is such a huge, or maybe "the" only factor to where we end up.
One could almost say we are going backwards when considering DRM, keys for usuage, and for other than maybe storage "why" with Blu-Ray & HD-DVD.
I also think 2009 "the switch" will come and go w/o much fanfare except for an extremly huge amount of people hooking up digital to analog converter boxes.
Regards,
NK