In 2003 on doom9 there was a thread where people shared their predictions on the state of video codecs and related jazz in 5 years time and in 2008 the thread was bumped and they reviewed how close the predictions were. I offered my own predictions for 5, 10, 20 and 40 years time but I'll just post the 5 since as of this month they have passed.
The month I wrote this post was shortly after losing my awesome $5000-a-month job that I had at barely 18 and right at the beginning of my oxy withdrawal which was the beginning of the end for me in perfect lieu with the collapse of the world economy which I didn't see coming.
That being said, I'm not as keen with the current state of affairs with video technology as I would be had fate been different and I still had all the spare time of a privileged existence I used to have. In other words, I have no ******* clue how close my predictions match today's reality, but your input is welcome.
Originally Posted by An old reincarnation of Mephesto
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Since these are my predictions I feel right to review my own post to the best of my ability.
H.265 will be available, somewhat less dominant than H.264 is today, but popular. People will (at least I hope) continue distributing CD-sized rips as the 50% efficiency increase will make sub-HD possible at bitrates below the megabit range.
Retards will be releasing encodes with 8-channel 192 KHz audio at like 10 Mbps and brag about their "ultrahigh quality encodes."
Then all the hordes of unsexed anti-VFW losers can quit bitching and find a new hobby.
Joost will replace BitTorrent (yo, BT sucks) for video content,
and 3rd generation P2P apps will dominate current 2nd gen apps, but will still be popular in 3rd world countries where people can't afford the multiplied bandwidth of their traffic being routed thru proxy peers.
Stealthnet and Tesla will be big,
Freenet will develop a user-friendly GUI and maybe become more popular.
Ultrareal CGI films will be more common and less expensive to produce. There will be more credible movies than Flatland completely created by one person. Indies in general will be more common, especially with oldschool 8/16-bit games.
Tapestry media and HVDs will quickly replace Blu-rays,
and Blu-rays will become the standard casual media format as DVDs are today.
Ultrahigh-definition will be prominent, but won't replace HD.
HD will be more common as machines get more powerful and make processing high resolutions a casual activity.
SD will still be popular as 720x576 for all intents and purposes is enough, but any lower-res rips will be rare.
These faulty piece of shit LCDs will start to be replaced by LEP displays (that you can fold like paper) which take way less power, have a way higher contrast ratio and don't distort from other angles.
Virtual retinal displays will be developed and finalized, but not yet affordable or widely available.
- Brother Industries from Japan exhibited VRD system named AirScouter in September 2010.
- Brother Industries announced the commercialisation of the Airscouter in August 2011. which is available by now.
The United States' economy will crash and the country will be in another depression era, and all you geeks will learn the true hardships of life -- having to ditch your apartment and move back in with your bitchy parents, work hard for low wages, the electricity to your house being cut off 'cuz you couldn't afford the bills for the month etc.
And I'll be in Japan makin' phat cash.
Last edited by Mephesto; 21st Sep 2013 at 23:35.
..fly the **** out of here soon to a country that is a true...
And his prediction about Japan being the land of opportunity for him will be another failed prediction.
Regarding HEVC, the latest source-filter from Strongene already can set the correct framerate in its output pin.
I think I'll start sharing videos, movies and episodes in H.265 AVI format now just to watch them nerdrage and break more of their foot-thick hymens on their bike seats.
While America did not suffer through another great depression, some are warning that due to the failure to pass meaningful regulation (and remember that significant numbers of people oppose ANY regulation) that the exact same bad behaviors that caused the economic collapse a few years ago are being repeated.
I think there is a possibility that the younger generation around the world, say the under 30s, may not ever be able to afford a house/place of their own, not just in the USA. Housing prices pretty much everywhere are too high. Singapore is a place you don't hear much about but their housing market is red hot with prices that I believe are not supportable or affordable, but given their government's hand in the local economy, they may be able to react quickly if the market starts to crash.
I've traveled to more countries than most Americans and I can tell you that it's possible to make money anywhere. If you, Mephesto, would be happier elsewhere then that is a good reason to move, but if you are moving only because you think you can make wads of cash, that may not happen. Unless you have some kind of in demand skill set or foreign language skills, it can be hard to get by in foreign countries, especially if English is not an official language. I've seen my share of disillusioned Americans who moved to places in Europe with high hopes and came back a year later saying "NEVER again would I live there".
Last edited by usually_quiet; 22nd Sep 2013 at 21:22. Reason: fixed thye unintended result of a previous cut to my post
Maybe I should've left the last one out, but in the spirit of preserving it exactly as it was written and not after going thru Doom9's obsessive compulsive mod editors (thank god I had a copy of this so I didn't have to look on that shitty site to find it) I didn't.
Guys, for real, have the decency to address at least one relevant part of my post if you're so interested in focusing on the least relevant part and lecturing me heavily how I should conduct my personal life.
I was not born here, English is my second language and I've already went back to my birthplace in Europe for a couple years before coming back just a year before the West got itself into another Great Depression. I don't give a damn about shitty xenophobic Japan now, I was already making way more than I could spend when I was pondering the decision to invest into Japan because I knew America was dying, I don't care about the dollars now, I just wanna find peace. Hope that clarifies.
Originally Posted by bendixG15
Originally Posted by Hoser Rob
Originally Posted by TreeTops
Originally Posted by El Heggunte
Originally Posted by El Heggunte
Originally Posted by jman98
In Russia, the government gives away free apartments to everyone with children every few years. I wouldn't mind, I've abstained from reproducing here because I did not wanna bring a new innocent life to get ****ed up in this sick-ass system that produces nothing but animals.
Last edited by El Heggunte; 23rd Sep 2013 at 02:31. Reason: add more thumbs up
How much more is there to say? You already said it all regarding most of your own technical predictions. There have been some recent movies that make heavy use of CGI and look pretty good, but the last attempt at a realistic-looking all CGI movie I saw was Beowulf, in 2007. The CGI wasn't perfect but it was impressive. It was hard to fully appreciate it though because the dialog was so awful. Even the mostly first-class actors providing the voices couldn't save that movie.
El Heggunte, google cache owns: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:OiHUzCmoW8UJ:http://forum.doom9.o...&gbv=1&ct=clnk
Thats typical of your average forum anyway. I've noticed most of the misconduct tends to be perpetrated by decorated members with 10,000+ posts that feel free to do what they want.
usually_quiet, I haven't been following up on half of the things I thought I would be when I made that 2008 post so if my follow-ups are unchallenged then that's a good start. I'm glad to know I'm not that out of touch.
Does anyone know of one movie since Flatland that has been animated by just one guy? I'll be disappointed if that milestone is all we still got.